Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 2: Regular Season

[twabby]

It’s not so much about CMM in particular for me. It’s about changing up the formula that hasn’t worked for 4 years. CMM (and Strome, who should be a lock for 2C at this point) showed the most last year of the guys vying for a top 9 spot. He also projects to improve the most. But if it’s Protas, or Snively, or whoever give them a legit shot too!

Swing for the fences! Their days of being top tier contenders are likely over for a while. Doesn’t mean they can’t get into that second tier.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I prefer to make changes that are more focused than just trying shaking things up, because the old “formula” didn’t work……this will be a different roster like every year.

They can make more impactful roster moves when they have more impactful production/play from the young guys.

”swing for the fences“ reads to me like “F it, if we miss the playoffs, I don‘t care, I get my wish and Lavi is fired“….lol….

 

[Calicaps]

I’d take the guy who could give an 8/10, though I disagree with the premise that CMM was a 4/10 last year compared to Eller’s usual 6/10.

This isn’t the 2015-16 Capitals that lost because their depth couldn’t match the depth of other teams. This is a team whose high-end players don’t match up with high-end players from other teams. They need to be looking for all solutions to this problem, and unfortunately players like Eller and Johansson aren’t capable of driving high-end lines. Maybe McMichael can. His rookie season is in line with other players who have done so in the past.

And besides, I think Eller should be 4LW where he’ll still get plenty of ice time. So it’s not really an either/or situation. I do think Johansson should be riding the pine on the other hand.

I'd say CMM gave you moments of all sorts of numbers but the only thing you could count on any given night was 4/10. And Eller wasn't his usual 6/10 last year, but I think if you're expecting him to bounce back this year, that's about what you would be anticipating.

I'm not a fan of Eller at wing.

 

[Ridley Simon]

We also acquired those 2 plugs for top 6 forwards this off-season in Brown and Strome. Sheary should not be seeing top 6 time

Not so fast. Brown was a top 9 guy. Not just for top 6. Put it this way, when Wilson is healthy (never mind Backstrom), Sheary won’t be top 6.

The *real* question outta be: which RW doesn’t play as an RW? (Wilson, Oshie, Mantha, Brown, and Hathaway).

From my view, it should easily be Mantha sliding over to what would be his natural position.

Ovechkin - Kuznetsov - Wilson
Mantha - Strome - Brown
CMM/Sheary — Eller — Oshie
CMM/Sheary - Dowd - Hathaway
Protas/Marge

That how it should roll, IMO

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[RedRocking]

Well, when you are missing 2 top 6 forwards, someone has to plug the holes.

Hey, I’m not gonna stand for this Sheary Slander!

Seriously though, last year he was one of the most consistent forwards on a night-to-night basis. You can never question his level of compete. And he had over 40 pts.

I remember when were basically icing an AHL team due to injuries/COVID, and being thrilled upon his return - “yea Sheary is back!” Then I immediately smacked myself in the face, realizing how depleted and ridiculous our team was, and how I would never have cared in prior seasons.

But, he’s a guy you want to fit somewhere in the lineup. He played well on (essentially) every line last year. Y’all are obsessing over the wrong Conor/Connor. So, uh…yea, don’t mess with my guy, Conor!

 

[zappa4ever]

Sheary last season: 71gp 19g 24a (t135th fwd goals, t138th fwd assists)

That is solidly 2nd line numbers

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

The reds at home.

The whites on the road.

The blue third alternate that debuted in 2020-21.

The yet-to-be-revealed Reverse Retro, which is rumored to be black.

And an all new uniform that will debut during February’s Stadium Series game in Raleigh, N.C., and likely will be worn at least once at home, too. Like the Reverse Retro, it has not been been revealed but is rumored to prominently feature the team’s “Weagle” on the jersey.

 

[DWGie26]

Sheary is the ultimate utility tool. I have no issue with him in top 6 for spot duty. Think he would be great on 4th line. Left or right. Doesn’t matter. I imagine we have to let him walk next year a la Beagle. Will cheer for him to get paid.

 

[YippieKaey]

Yeah Sheary is a real bright spot for me. Always competes, always performs.

 

[Hivemind]

I'd say CMM gave you moments of all sorts of numbers but the only thing you could count on any given night was 4/10.

If CMM was a 4/10 on any given night last year, then so were guys like TJ Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom, and Tom Wilson.

 

[Calicaps]

If CMM was a 4/10 on any given night last year, then so were guys like TJ Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom, and Tom Wilson.

 

[g00n]

We're in a cult, aren't we?

 

[um]

"CMM just needs to force the issue" - a portion of the Caps fans
CMM contributed more goals/60 and points/60 at 5v5 last year than TJ Oshie or Nicklas Backstrom. I'm not talking his fancy stats, On-Ice Goals For, expected goals, possession metrics or anything like that (and all those numbers are even better). I'm talking just his raw stats per minute of ice time he saw. How is that not forcing the issue?

He forced the issue last year, and Lavi still decided to give Carl Hagelin more ice time on a nightly basis. Even in the game in which Hagelin literally scored against his own team (in which CMM had scored a goal in the right direction).


(I'm also going to preempt any arguments about his defense with saying his defensive numbers are on the better of average, sometimes even great. Third lowest xGA on the team, trailing only Dowd and Leason. He gave up the fourth fewest High Danger Chances Against/60, trailing only Dowd, Hathaway, and Oshie. His shots/attempts against metrics were consistently between players like Eller and Hagelin. )

I think he forced the issue at centre, but at wing he was not very good.

Don’t know what the fancy stats are on that.

 

[Hivemind]

The justification for not giving him minutes is really darn shallow. He should have seen more ice time than he did last year, and the team would have won more hockey games than they did if he had seen more ice time. And people are justifiably anxious about Lavi's placement of CMM this pre-season.

 

[usiel]

McMichael does need to prove where he belongs in the pecking order. Ideally for him it's at center but then Kuz/Strome/CMM as the top three centers are likely too soft. If at LW he needs to produce. While rate stats and underlying play paint an optimistic picture if Snively is finishing then Snively gets the spot. Or if Protas is being more of a forechecking load, etc. The production needs to speak for itself and if he doesn't produce in the pre-season it seems likely he won't dress on opening night. And that's probably how it should be unless he's downright dominant otherwise.

Their operating procedure is largely about strengthening weak links rather than attempting more ambitious elevation for what's a decidedly post-peak core. But then, again, I'm brought back to Gustafsson as an aggressive pinching system fit that ultimately still adds a weak link defensively. The reward is believed to be worth the risk--up to a point--but where is that up mentality front? Don't they need to at least manufacture McMichael/Snively as that depth scoring wild card ala past Burakovsky/Connolly/Sprongs but more reliable? To not prioritize that 5v5 for a Johansson is a waste. If they indeed have more fundamental tolerance for more aggressive D pinching then they should probably restructure to add a more capable one than Gustafsson. If that means trading Mantha plus for a Chychrun so be it I guess. If that's your approach go for it. Don't muddy the waters being wishy-washy.

Strome & Brown should provide a different feel in the top six but when it comes to Sheary/Johansson/Eller I think we know what we're likely to get...and it isn't likely to move the needle much. Working back from there they also don't seem prepared to undertake the risk to develop on the fly and turn it over to less proven commodities. Or else they should make the hard decisions and pave the way for it. It may not pay off but the ambition, boldness and confidence would be welcome. Conventional only pays off so far. While they just need to make the playoffs if that's the overriding goal too much can get sacrificed in the process. It always comes back to the vision and organizational cohesion. It's here that MacLellan needs to do a better job of checking and selectively amplifying how the coaches operate to better shape the agenda and get better results.

Bolded seems to sum up what is going on with the younglings. Lavi still rolling with veteran core hoping for health and things coming together for the playoffs.

 

[Marshall]

Guess I'm in the minority - I feel like the kids have been given lots of looks so far. I'm surprised guys like Iorio are still in camp. If he wasn't playing well with his big minutes, I think he'd be back in the dub already. Protas is getting large minutes, too.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

If nothing else the kids playing this well should make it a relatively simple decision on guys like Eller, Hagelin, MoJo, and maybe even Sheary as to re-signing them or letting them walk when their contracts are up after this year. And Hershey should be loaded this year as well.

 

[Langway]

Iorio will be in Hershey since he's a late birthday. He seems like he needs to get a bit more explosive but the foundation is there. Soaking up AHL minutes should only help.

It's going to come down to engagement with most of the younger players and that usually requires more strength and/or a mentality change. It's a process. Overwhelmingly I think the younger players have shown well. The question is more whether that translates into Johansen displacing Gustafsson or whether Snively or McMichael end up leading to a vet either sitting or being moved. TBD. Protas has I think already earned at least starting with the team and Johansen probably should also one way or another.

Between what Johansen, Nardella & Iorio have shown if they can manage to get Nardella through waivers they've got enough developing D depth to do what they brought in Gustafsson to do. Nardella can help run PP2 if they desperately need it (IMO they don't given that they have Orlov already anyway). Gustafsson needs to prove why he's better, more reliable and provides more upside not to waive him. His first game sure didn't suggest it. If it is an equal playing ground Johansen & Nardella should be putting pressure on Gustafsson, just as Protas is putting pressure on McMichael. The last three pre-season games--barring being assured spots for whatever reason--are to me mostly about Gustafsson & McMichael showing just what they can offer.

 

[DWGie26]

Guess I'm in the minority - I feel like the kids have been given lots of looks so far. I'm surprised guys like Iorio are still in camp. If he wasn't playing well with his big minutes, I think he'd be back in the dub already. Protas is getting large minutes, too.

I’m with you. Kids are getting lots of minutes. And the ones who play really well keep getting jerseys like Protas and Nardella. So has Snively. He is not young per se at 26 but he is in the first years of his first one-way contact. Will be interesting to see who gets jerseys tonight in the final “tryout” preseason game. Next week will look a lot like the starting lineups.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Iorio will be in Hershey since he's a late birthday. He seems like he needs to get a bit more explosive but the foundation is there. Soaking up AHL minutes should only help.

It's going to come down to engagement with most of the younger players and that usually requires more strength and/or a mentality change. It's a process. Overwhelmingly I think the younger players have shown well. The question is more whether that translates into Johansen displacing Gustafsson or whether Snively or McMichael end up leading to a vet either sitting or being moved. TBD. Protas has I think already earned at least starting with the team and Johansen probably should also one way or another.

Between what Johansen, Nardella & Iorio have shown if they can manage to get Nardella through waivers they've got enough developing D depth to do what they brought in Gustafsson to do. Nardella can help run PP2 if they desperately need it (IMO they don't given that they have Orlov already anyway). Gustafsson needs to prove why he's better, more reliable and provides more upside not to waive him. His first game sure didn't suggest it. If it is an equal playing ground Johansen & Nardella should be putting pressure on Gustafsson, just as Protas is putting pressure on McMichael. The last three pre-season games--barring being assured spots for whatever reason--are to me mostly about Gustafsson & McMichael showing just what they can offer.

Gustafsson strikes me as a slightly worse and left-handed Schultz. I think he’ll provide some quality in terms of puck movement and in the transition and cycling game but will that and his offense be enough to make up for what he lacks defensively? Doubtful for me. He also doesn’t provide any real lineup flexibility because I don’t think he can play anywhere but 3LD and he doesn’t kill penalties.

This year does feel like a tipping point. Brown, Sheary, Eller, Hathaway, MoJo, Hagelin, and Strome are all UFAs next year as are Orlov, Jensen, TvR, Gustaffson, and Irwin. AJF and Fever are RFAs. A lot of guys are playing for their jobs and how they play plus how the young kids play will go a long way in determining who is in DC next year. If they go deep maybe they want to bring guys back but if they flame out early I think there’s a lot of roster turnover coming.

Strome, Brown, and Hathaway seem like the best candidates to re-up up front as well as Sheary and Orlov and Jensen feel like the likely candidates on defense, though Hathaway may well price himself out of DC.

 

[Langway]

Strome will be RFA, albeit with arbitration rights. Feels like if they're halfway decent they'll extend a few vets by the new year or spring. Brown & Orlov are I think the hardest to replace internally and should be the highest priorities. You'd have to figure things aren't looking good for Eller, Hagelin and probably Johansson getting extended unless maybe 90 really wants to remain on the cheap. Hathaway, Sheary, Jensen & TVR may come down to numbers/demands/term.

Jensen is I think the toughest decision. TVR could play into it and having Iorio & Chesley in the pipeline adds insurance but I'm not sure how high they can go. Same with Hathaway & Sheary. If they really are going to be mindful of being able to add higher-end talent they're going to need to hold the line on some of the various more mid-level options that need re-upping but could more conceivably be replaced internally.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Strome will be RFA, albeit with arbitration rights. Feels like if they're halfway decent they'll extend a few vets by the new year or spring. Brown & Orlov are I think the hardest to replace internally and should be the highest priorities. You'd have to figure things aren't looking good for Eller, Hagelin and probably Johansson getting extended unless maybe 90 really wants to remain on the cheap. Hathaway, Sheary, Jensen & TVR may come down to numbers/demands/term.

Jensen is I think the toughest decision. TVR could play into it and having Iorio & Chesley in the pipeline adds insurance but I'm not sure how high they can go. Same with Hathaway & Sheary. If they really are going to be mindful of being able to add higher-end talent they're going to need to hold the line on some of the various more mid-level options that need re-upping but could more conceivably be replaced internally.

Your last comment is spot on for me. I’d like to see guys like Protas, Snively, and McMike take over for some of the vets so they can have the flexibility to add another top six forward. Oshie is probably done as a top six guy and if not this year then likely next year. If they’re really ruthless they should probably move Oshie after this year and re-sign Brown to fill his role and then find that new top six winger. Mantha is a wild card as well — he needs to produce this year.

Orlov I think has to be their top priority. He’s the least replaceable of all UFAs and their best all around defenseman to boot. Love what Jensen has developed into but if he’s looking for more than three years is that a good idea? What if Iorio tears up Hershey and Chesley has a great freshman campaign at Minnesota? They have to lean in to some of these young guys in order to extend the window by acquiring a Timo Meier or someone similar who can take the burden off of Ovechkin and Kuznetsov and flip the script from a play driving perspective.

To their credit they have a host of young guys who look like they are going to be solid NHLers. You’d hope that there’s a top six stud in there as well between Lapierre, McMike, Protas, Miro, or Snively.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yup Orlov 1, Brown probably 2 in terms of priority. Any other UFAs I think we can easily move on from. Strome if we’re lucky. Definitely consider extending Jensen if he’s willing to give a discount over UFA pricing.

I think these guys will want a shot at being part of the team as 8 winds it down….historical significance.

 

[g00n]

If nothing else the kids playing this well should make it a relatively simple decision on guys like Eller, Hagelin, MoJo, and maybe even Sheary as to re-signing them or letting them walk when their contracts are up after this year. And Hershey should be loaded this year as well.

Exactly what I've been saying. This is the final year of the window for a LOT of players on this team and that was clearly always the plan.

So all the panic and shrieking about the front office being clueless about youth and having no idea what's going on with talent etc etc....it's horseshit. They're going to ride or die with the largely veteran group of Lavi's making until it falls apart or wins the Cup, and then they'll adjust with guys in the pipeline plus a few FAs, most likely.

There is ZERO point in getting bent out of shape about youth, speed, skill, etc this year. It's the "show me" season for half the team as well as the coach. And was always meant to be.