Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2020 Offseason Pt. 1
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txpd
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CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
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RandyHolt
Keep truckin'
- Nov 3, 2006
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hb13xchamps
Registered User
That’s Stanley Cup Champion and +50 Jeff Schultz. Put some respect on his name
francaisvolantsparis
Registered User
Imagine we draft..
Trevor Daley, D
Matt Stajan, C
David Backes, RW
Andrej Sekera, D
Keith Yandle, D
Justin Abdelkader, D
and not..
#12 Steve Eminger (D) in 2002
#17 Boyd Gordon (F) in 2002
#18 Eric Fehr (F) in 2003
#27 Jeff Schultz (D) in 2004
#14 Sasha Pokulok (D) in 2005
#27 Joe Finley (D) in 2005
We spoiled the first and the brightest part of Ovechkin career by the terrible decision making in 2002-2005 Drafts.
Since 2006 by some magic, our Draft choices are consistently excellent..
Trevor Daley, D
Matt Stajan, C
David Backes, RW
Andrej Sekera, D
Keith Yandle, D
Justin Abdelkader, D
and not..
#12 Steve Eminger (D) in 2002
#17 Boyd Gordon (F) in 2002
#18 Eric Fehr (F) in 2003
#27 Jeff Schultz (D) in 2004
#14 Sasha Pokulok (D) in 2005
#27 Joe Finley (D) in 2005
We spoiled the first and the brightest part of Ovechkin career by the terrible decision making in 2002-2005 Drafts.
Since 2006 by some magic, our Draft choices are consistently excellent..
txpd
Registered User
go ahead Uncle Randy,, spin us a tale.....
He had a higher number. Had to be a better player
txpd
Registered User
Would you really rather have Trevor Daly than John Carlson? Boyd Gordon was a fine player. Pokulok's pick should have been a top 3 pick in the first place.
ovikovy817
Registered User
Empty Goal Net
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- Feb 13, 2010
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This is a fun game. How 'bout what if the Caps had drafted:
#24Kris Chucko (Calgary) in 2004 [2 NHL games]
#13 Marek Zagrapan (Buffalo) in 2005 [0 NHL games]
#16 Alex Bourret (Atlanta) in 2005 [0 NHL games]
I could go on but it's a waste of time. High and low picks that work out and those that don't abound. Overall, Caps drafting is middlin' over the past couple of decades. The cupboard is not bare but it's certainly not stocked. But what the hey, they won the Cup 2 years ago.
francaisvolantsparis
Registered User
There is no John Carlson in my list. We f*ckd up SIX first round draft picks. SIX in four years! For reference, from 2006 to 2019 we f***ed up only twice. Boyd Gordon on #17, what a misery. We could have Matt Stajan, Jarret Stoll, James Wisniewski, Tom Gilbert, Gregory Campbell, Max Talbot, Chris Higgins, Sean Bergenheim or Ian White.
Corby78
65 - 10 - 20
Yes everybody hits and misses, but a big part of our farm system being a weak is the years of high draft picks and being buyers at the trade deadline.
Eminger was traded to Philly for a 1st rd pick that the Caps used to select Carlson, it worked out quite well in the long run. Washington could very well have selected a kid who had a pretty good World Juniors and had 'bloodlines'...Viktor Tikhonov who I thought Caps would have taken if he didn't have his heart set on playing out west.
txpd
Registered User
The Caps traded Eminger and a 3rd round pick for John Carlson. You knew that. Oh and its generally agreed that Emigner was a fine choice that Bruce Cassidy killed.
francaisvolantsparis
Registered User
You do not understand my point. Every time you waste a first round pick you have a good surprise like Mathieu Perreault or Braden Holtby on a low round draft pick. From 2006 all our bad choices (only two) are counterbalanced by good surprises from 2nd-7th Draft rounds. Our 2nd Round draft picks from 2006 until now are extremely good. Four years and six wasted first round draft picks, no good surprises, no good 2nd round draft picks. Nothing. It is ~50% of the rebuild process wasted.
I measure every word. If we had drafted from 2002 to 2005 at least as well as we did since 2006, Ovechkin would have more SCups today.
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Empty Goal Net
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It is not good to waste a first round pick. On that we can all agree.
As others have pointed out, several of the picks you cited were either turned into players of value or were not as bad as you seem to imply or were the right picks to make at that time. [We could talk about whether the team could have anticipated Fehr's injury potential but I'm not sure there's anything to gain from that.]
Had the Capitals made better (luckier?) selections in the early 2000s, the team may have had more success. We'll never know.
francaisvolantsparis
Registered User
John Carlson vs #12 first round draft pick? It is what? 5-7 positions up. It is nowhere near the price of a half dozen lost first round draft picks.
Skrudland2Lomakin
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- Jan 1, 2011
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Hold on, I'm taking notes "Draft good with early picks." Ok got that part, what else "Also draft good with late picks"
This is good shit guys, sending it down to MedStar right now.
This is good shit guys, sending it down to MedStar right now.
hb13xchamps
Registered User
2002 also had us drafting Alex Semin. Eminger played in the NHL for 10 seasons and Gordon for 13. They weren't great players but they weren't scrubs.
Eric Fehr played 14 years in the NHL. His downfall was his early shoulder injuries.
2004 draft had us getting Mike Green with the 29th pick which was a steal. He is the highest scoring defenseman from his draft class by 60+ points. Oh yeah, plus we drafted the greatest goal scorer of this generation with the #1 overall pick.
2005 was a bad draft year for a lot of teams. Lots of misses in the 1st and second round.
The worst one is Fehr right before Getzlaf.
francaisvolantsparis
Registered User
| 2002 | ||
| #12 | Steve Eminger (D) | bad choise |
| #13 | Alexander Syomin (F) | good choise |
| #17 | Boyd Gordon (F) | 2nd round pick Player |
| #59 | Maxime Daigneault (G) | wasted 2nd |
| #77 | Patrick Wellar (D) | -- |
| #92 | Derek Krestanovic (F) | -- |
| #109 | Jevon Desautels (F) | -- |
| #118 | Petr Dvorak (F) | -- |
| #145 | Robert Gherson (G) | -- |
| #179 | Marian Havel (F) | -- |
| #209 | Joni Lindlöf (F) | -- |
| #242 | Igor Ignatushkin (F) | -- |
| #272 | Patric Blomdahl (F) | -- |
| 2003 | ||
| #18 | Eric Fehr (F) | 2nd round pick Player |
| #83 | Stephen Werner (F) | -- |
| #109 | Andreas Valdix (F) | -- |
| #155 | Josh Robertson (F) | -- |
| #249 | Andrew Joudrey (F) | -- |
| #279 | Mark Olafson (F) | -- |
| 2004 | ||
| #1 | Alexander Ovechkin (F) | ok choise |
| #27 | Jeff Schultz (D) | 2nd round pick Player |
| #29 | Mike Green (D) | good choise |
| #33 | Chris Bourque (F) | wasted 2nd |
| #62 | Mikhail Yunkov (F) | wasted 2nd |
| #66 | Sami Lepistö (D) | -- |
| #88 | Clayton Barthel (D) | -- |
| #132 | Oscar Hedman (D) | -- |
| #138 | Pasi Salonen (F) | -- |
| #166 | Peter Guggisberg (F) | -- |
| #197 | Andrew Gordon (F) | -- |
| #230 | Justin Mrazek (G) | -- |
| #263 | Travis Morin (F) | -- |
| 2005 | ||
| #14 | Sasha Pokulok (D) | wasted 1st |
| #27 | Joe Finley (D) | wasted 1st |
| #109 | Andrew Thomas (D) | -- |
| #118 | Patrick McNeill (D) | -- |
| #143 | Daren Machesney (G) | -- |
| #181 | Tim Kennedy (F) | -- |
| #209 | Viktor Dovgan (D) | -- |
- One #1 pick. An 8 year old kid will make a good choise here. Doesn't count.
- Five #10-20 picks. Let's say #12 Eminger gives us #27 after the trade. Carlson was drafted afrer 2005, he doesn't count here. He is only a #27 pick yet here. So, the result of five #10-20 picks are one ~#5 worth Alexander Semin, a late #20-30 first round draft pick, two second round draft pick worth players and one total waste.
- Three #20-30 picks. The result: one ~#7 worth Mike Green, one 2nd round pick worth player and one total waste.
- One wasted second round draft pick.
- Two wasted late second round draft picks.
- 27 late round draft picks. NO good surprises. Nothing.
- Five #10-20 picks are 3.425 expected WAR. Our result after draft: 2.224 expected WAR. Thank you Alexander Semin.
- Three #20-30 picks = 1.134 expected WAR. Our result: 1.273. Thank you Mike Green.
- Three wasted 2nd round picks: -0.713 WAR.
- 27 wasted low picks: -2.828 expected WAR. This is mind blowing. 27 pick and nothing in return. It is huge.
Result:
Net loss of 4.600 expected WAR or ~5.77 wasted first round draft picks.
The cost of trading a bad Contract
At your service to explain my brilliant ideas. As I say in previous posts. We lost equivalent of six first round picks in 2006-2009 Drafts. We ruined a big part of the Rebuild. We spoiled the first half of Ovechkin career. Point.
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Langway
In den Wolken
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txpd
Registered User
Drafting all star/norris trophy level defensemen is....rare, would you say? most teams dont get one. But, ok. I know when I am overmatched.
Edit: one other thing on this draft thing. The Caps took Boyd Gordon at 17. He is being compared to Alexander Steen. Not Jakib Koreis at 19. Denis Grebeshkov at 18, or Daniel Paille at 20. Gordon was a good deal better than all 3 of those guys. 6 other teams passed on Steen. We just assume that had Caps not selected Gordon they would have been smarter than all those other teams.
The Capitals got Eminger who they turned into John Carlson, Alex Semin and Boyd Gordon, who played over 700 nhl games.
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Skrudland2Lomakin
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It's almost as if drafting is a crapshoot to begin with and our abundance of late round picks that materialized and early round ones that didn't is evidence to that.
This is such an asinine conversation. If we had legitimately missed on most of our draft picks the conversation would have some validity (I can't remember which team but one team in the 90s had none of their picks for a year ever make it to the NHL). But the takeaway from this conversation is that we sometimes draft well late, and we sometimes draft well early, but then sometimes we don't draft well late, and we sometimes don't well early. If we sucked at drafting we'd be missing way more in the later rounds, those are the harder places to draft. The first round is all but predetermined, you just get your pick and hope he actually matures.
Let's not forget that you're drafting 17-19 year old boys here, their growth at that age has such a high variability. It's not like we ever went wild and drafted someone far off the board. Most of our picks were within the consensus mock ups for that area. You could play the "what if?" game with every team in the league.
This is such an asinine conversation. If we had legitimately missed on most of our draft picks the conversation would have some validity (I can't remember which team but one team in the 90s had none of their picks for a year ever make it to the NHL). But the takeaway from this conversation is that we sometimes draft well late, and we sometimes draft well early, but then sometimes we don't draft well late, and we sometimes don't well early. If we sucked at drafting we'd be missing way more in the later rounds, those are the harder places to draft. The first round is all but predetermined, you just get your pick and hope he actually matures.
Let's not forget that you're drafting 17-19 year old boys here, their growth at that age has such a high variability. It's not like we ever went wild and drafted someone far off the board. Most of our picks were within the consensus mock ups for that area. You could play the "what if?" game with every team in the league.
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