Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2020 Offseason Pt. 1

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

It could be much MORE. You cannot understand that. See?

I actually can't. We blew the doors off the league for more than 10 years. We were by far the most dominant team in an era that had Geno and Sid.

We could rehash playoff loses all the live long day, but the fact of the matter is that all of those teams managed to get to that position and had the skill to conceivably get beyond it. You'll never convince me that drafting is why we didn't get more Cups. You want to talk coaching philosophy, you want to talk free agent acquisitions, or trades? Sure. Drafting? No, homegrown talent, or lack thereof was never the issue.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

There is no contradiction. I am talking about you.

 

[Carlzner]

I can't imagine caring about a missed draft pick or a bad trade anytime before 2018.

6/7/18 washed it all away.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Transformative era in the style of hockey, it makes sense to have a bunch of pylons from a bygone era clogging up your developmental system when half of them were drafted in a different era. Guys like Djoos would never have gotten a serious look in the early to mid-2000s, Jeff Schultz probably would have had a better thought of career had he been born a bit earlier. I think a lot of teams struggle to cleanse the system so to speak at that time. You pick any random roster in 2006 and it's loaded with absolute plugs in the bottom 6 and lower defensive pairings that were leftovers from drafting for that style. The dead puck era maybe saw a drop in scoring, but it still had the same shitty roster philosophy from those 1980s eras.

We should be grateful that we actually get to watch palatable hockey played with bottom 6 hockey.

There is nothing like 'everyone loses' or everyone 'did bad'. It's a fallacy. Then someone make bad draft decisions, someone do the opposite. We did extremly bad. Point.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

You are forgetting to mention Ted investment in organizational development of prospects he spent a lot more money on scouts and built Kettler and made a connection with Hershey which all lead us having better development

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I can't imagine caring about a missed draft pick or a bad trade anytime before 2018.

6/7/18 washed it all away.

A billion %....

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

You are forgetting to mention Ted investment in organizational development of prospects he spent a lot more money on scouts and built Kettler and made a connection with Hershey which all lead us having better development

NOPE! We suck draft! Point.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

I actually can't. We blew the doors off the league for more than 10 years. We were by far the most dominant team in an era that had Geno and Sid.

We could rehash playoff loses all the live long day, but the fact of the matter is that all of those teams managed to get to that position and had the skill to conceivably get beyond it. You'll never convince me that drafting is why we didn't get more Cups. You want to talk coaching philosophy, you want to talk free agent acquisitions, or trades? Sure. Drafting? No, homegrown talent, or lack thereof was never the issue.

That one is easy. Let me remind you that we won our only Cup with 11 home drafted players out of 19 on the ice. 8/10 core players are our drafties. Do you understand that?

 

[hb13xchamps]

NOPE! We suck draft! Point.

It’s facts bro!

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

There is nothing like 'everyone loses' or everyone 'did bad'. It's a fallacy. Then someone make bad draft decisions, someone do the opposite. We did extremly bad. Point.

You're not really giving any examples though, you're speaking in generalities. You throw out obvious takes, you offer no meaningful substance, and then you accuse anyone who finds the obvious holes in it as being "Toxic" or a "troll".


Until you can actually pin point something about how we actually were in bottom tier of drafting results it's all meaningless gibberish that has no baseline. You've provided no context for how other teams did in this era other than cherry picking obvious things like "probably should have picked Getzlaf instead of Eric Fehr". You've shown no correlation between drafting and success around the league, or better yet, winning the Cup. You've in no way addressed how teams who drafted before the 2004 lockout were supposed to navigate that dilemma with farm system full of those picks (hint if you were picking a G or finesse forward you were fine, if you weren't it was a real gamble as to how they took to the new NHL). You haven't at all attempted to answer how does a team become the third most dominant regular season team in NHL history by apparently sucking at drafting? Nor have you provider any meaningful system of assessing prospects that we missed on beyond retroactively looking back. Yeah, it's not hard to see that Getzlaf is a better choice 17 years after the draft, but what apparently was obvious about it at the time? 17 other teams passed on him. 44 teams passed on Bergeron, 290 passed on Brian Elliot, but you've got nothing of substance to show that they missed obvious indicators as opposed to a guy just maturing and growing into his body.

 

[VaCaps Fan]

Abe Pollin era was rough on scouting and development budget as well. Look at this roster at the end of the old era....2003–04 Washington Capitals season - Wikipedia

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

That one is easy. Let me remind you that we won our only Cup with 11 home drafted players out of 19 on the ice. 8/10 core players are our drafties. Do you understand that?

We actually are second in the league in having the most homegrown players,






Do you understand that?

 

[Corby78]

Transformative era in the style of hockey, it makes sense to have a bunch of pylons from a bygone era clogging up your developmental system when half of them were drafted in a different era. Guys like Djoos would never have gotten a serious look in the early to mid-2000s, Jeff Schultz probably would have had a better thought of career had he been born a bit earlier. I think a lot of teams struggled to cleanse the system so to speak at that time. You pick any random roster in 2006 and it's loaded with absolute plugs in the bottom 6 and lower defensive pairings that were leftovers from drafting for that style. The dead puck era maybe saw a drop in scoring, but it still had the same shitty roster philosophy from those 1980s eras.

We should be grateful that we actually get to watch palatable hockey played with bottom 6 hockey.

Tony Twist was playing hockey all the way till 1999. That tells you a lot about how rosters were built back then.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

You're not really giving any examples though, you're speaking in generalities. You throw out obvious takes, you offer no meaningful substance, and then you accuse anyone who finds the obvious holes in it as being "Toxic" or a "troll".


Until you can actually pin point something about how we actually were in bottom tier of drafting results it's all meaningless gibberish that has no baseline. You've provided no context for how other teams did in this era other than cherry picking obvious things like "probably should have picked Getzlaf instead of Eric Fehr". You've shown no correlation between drafting and success around the league, or better yet, winning the Cup. You've in no way addressed how teams who drafted before the 2004 lockout were supposed to navigate that dilemma with farm system full of those picks (hint if you were picking a G or finesse forward you were fine, if you weren't it was a real gamble as to how they took to the new NHL). You haven't at all attempted to answer how does a team become the third most dominant regular season team in NHL history by apparently sucking at drafting? Nor have you provider any meaningful system of assessing prospects that we missed on beyond retroactively looking back. Yeah, it's not hard to see that Getzlaf is a better choice 17 years after the draft, but what apparently was obvious about it at the time? 17 other teams passed on him. 44 teams passed on Bergeron, 290 passed on Brian Elliot, but you've got nothing of substance to show that they missed obvious indicators as opposed to a guy just maturing and growing into his body.

If there are two socks in the box. One red and one white. You take one and it is red. I say then 'the last one still in the box is a white one'. And then you say 'until you can actually pin point something about how I took a red sock it's all meaningless gibberish that has no baseline. You've provided no context for how other sock is white other than cherry picking obvious things'. And then I laugh.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Imagine what All-Star roster Caps and Ovechkin could have in 2010, if we could draft in 2002-06 at least as good as we did from 2007 to 2019? We could see a 80 goal season for Ovi and a SC at the end of it.

Not necessarily, it's like the butterfly effect. The selections made in prior years affect their standing and draft position in future years as well as their needs and hence their selections. It's a multivariate equation and changing a single element will affect all future outcomes.

This horse is dead.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Not necessarily, it's like the butterfly effect. The selections made in prior years affect their standing and draft position in future years as well as their needs and hence their selections. It's a multivariate equation and changing a single element will affect all future outcomes.

This horse is dead.

Well this is true. But it is true for only 0.01%.

 

[g00n]

Didn't McPhee admit they sucked at drafting early on, but got better?

I'm not sure what this is all about.

All of the draft failures were agonized over for years. Why do that again now? There's also more to winning a Cup than just dominating EA Sports style draft grades.

"Real" Caps fans are happy to have finally won a Cup after over 40 years of misery.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

If there are two socks in the box. One red and one white. You take one and it is red. I say then 'the last one still in the box is a white one'. And then you say 'until you can actually pin point something about how I took a red sock it's all meaningless gibberish that has no baseline. You've provided no context for how other sock is white other than cherry picking obvious things'. And then I laugh.

I mean, brutal metaphor that doesn't actually in anyway answer the question aside.

This is literally how science, philosophy, math, and statistics all work. The absence of something doesn't actually confirm its existence, at least not in any field that deals with facts.

You can deduce that the last sock is white, but you can't actually confirm it's white because we haven't ever seen it.

In the same way you cannot assume that the absence of perceived great players means that the Capitals drafted below the mean, there is a sea of context missing.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

We actually are second in the league in having the most homegrown players,

EDIT: There is a different chart out there that shows our UFA acquisition as second lowest, this isn't it. Point still stands regarding homegrown talent though.




Do you understand that?

Oh, the 2019 and 2020 SC winners have 48% and 52% of home drafted players. Exactly as we do. Do you understand that?

 

[Ridley Simon]

It is important to name things. You see how it was hard to say evident things? I'am not so sure, it was done for good before. It is not like everyone agree in a heartbet. It was the opposit. We have serious topic here.

I guess so. I don’t think rehashing what GMGM did back in the early 00’s has to do with anything now.

sure, some people may argue against you (I honestly think it’s more arguing against you than arguing against your point), but it’s water so far under the bridge....that’s it’s hard to even see anymore.

I just think it’s pretty much irrelevant now.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

I mean, brutal metaphor that doesn't actually in anyway answer the question aside.

This is literally how science, philosophy, math, and statistics all work. The absence of something doesn't actually confirm its existence, at least not in any field that deals with facts.

You can deduce that the last sock is white, but you can't actually confirm it's white because we haven't ever seen it.

In the same way you cannot assume that the absence of perceived great players means that the Capitals drafted below the mean, there is a sea of context missing.

You remember, I started by saying 'there are two socks in the box, one red and one white'. You got it?

 

[txpd]

Abe Pollin era was rough on scouting and development budget as well. Look at this roster at the end of the old era....2003–04 Washington Capitals season - Wikipedia

The best thing McPhee did was convince Leonsis to let him hire good young scouts and then provide enough budget to keep them as they gained experience. That and going back to the red unis

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Oh, the 2019 and 2020 SC winners have 48% and 52% of home drafted players. Exactly as we do. Do you understand that?

They finished already?


First of all, honest word to the wise, if you want people to engage you with a good faith argument stop with the "do you understand?" It's patronizing. I understand that it's possibly a language thing because it's a common benign phrase in a lot of other languages, but it's extremely insulting in a lot of english contexts.

Secondly, this chart also has a lot of young teams towards the top who are pretty far away from competing for a Cup. CBJ and CGY are both above average in their retention of homegrown players, both are still a few years away from the Cup. I don't think this chart actually shows us anything other than the fact that there is literally no way one way to build a championship team. The 8 remaining teams in the playoffs are as varied as they come.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

You remember, I started by saying 'there are two socks in the box, one red and one white'. You got it?

Except that's not how it works, not in science or drafting. In science, you still don't operate under the assumption of fact based on the absence of something.

In drafting no one goes "Alright boys, there are 10 first ballot HoFers in this draft, 16 surefire busts..."

In both cases you can't actually know what you have until the moment it's in front of you.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I think the failed Jagr trade showed Ted you can’t buy a cup playing fantasy hockey trades.
He had to build a team from within with good drafts, prospect development, and coaching.