Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2020 Offseason Pt. 1

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g00n

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In 14 years we wasted only 2 1st round picks. In four important rebuild years we wasted six.

You do realize that players don't typically stay with the same team long enough for a homegrown dynasty to form, right? And that salary cap restrictions almost always break up any team's run of great top picks?

How do you propose the Caps would have been able to afford 10 first round superstars on one roster after entry level contracts expire?
 

francaisvolantsparis

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Nov 21, 2018
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What team had that many f***ing first round picks? We were 5/10 by your logic. That’s 50% success rate. Only two teams in our own division drafted better.

Again, your hot take was dumb and now your moving the goal posts to support your argument. It’s stupid
It is not 50%. It is 25%. Two good choises and six terrible choises. You move the goal posts, not me. Find a team that terrible in four yearsspan. The worst thing is not the first round picks on top of that but all other 30 low round picks. No NHL player from 30 picks. 30!. After 2005 we drafted 15 NHL players with 2nd and lower picks. We wasted two first round picks and we were good with 13 1st round picks.

- 87% success with 1st round picks since 2006
- one NHL player every year from low round picks since 2006.

- 75% fail in 2002-05 with 1st round picks
- No NHL player from 30 low round picks in 2002-05.
 
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Langway

In den Wolken
Jul 7, 2006
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To the larger point of not surrounding Ovechkin well enough earlier on, it could be more strongly stated that a smarter (and more willing) free agent or trade strategy could have better set them up for success. It would have jeopardized their tanking strategy in the very early stages but the cultural strides could have ultimately been more beneficial and long-lasting. Whether it was backing up the truck to sign Zdeno Chara or being way more aggressive than the Brian Pothiers and Tom Potis of the world, there were many opportunities for GMGM to more aggressively surround Ovechkin with a stable and plain better team. It still speaks volumes after adding Fedorov that McPhee seemed kind of astonished that his leadership was so influential.

It's really the blueline make-up throughout McPhee's tenure that merits strong criticism. Right up until his firing it was never good enough and that was entirely avoidable. McPhee also never got ahead of the curve on where the game was headed when it comes to speed and mobility on D. Most of the early misses were players were ill-suited for where the game was headed and a more astute reading of the rule changes should have sped up that evaluative process (particularly given the stakes for them as a franchise at the time). Certainly more of an emphasis on skating earlier on in the rebuild could have helped. McPhee's more old school preference toward size and grit came with limitations that always needed to be updated as the game continued to evolve. We're talking about a time period that still featured enforcers and Derian Hatcher style d-men. It's kind of ancient history digging through that and pointing to a singular reason why they didn't have success sooner. It was...everything. The drafting could have been better but it's not the only means of adding talent or being ahead of the curve in general.
 

tenken00

Oh it's going down in Chinatown
Jan 29, 2010
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Woah on Ted getting physical...

Ted used to be a big dude before he lost all that weight. If I remember correctly, the fan he had the grabbed and threw was a heckler and was also talking about AOL (where Leonsis came from). I know Ted apologized profusely afterwards. Probably the start of Ted's "zen" like outlook on everything these days.

Edit: yep during the 03-04 season. So right before he got Ovechkin. Things were pretty rough.
 
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illicit

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In 14 years we wasted only 2 1st round picks. In four important rebuild years we wasted six.

First of all, it's way too early to call Fehervary, McMichael and Protas home runs. They have a combined 6 games of NHL regular season experience between them. Also, your list includes many players who weren't picked in the first round, so they're irrelevant to your original argument. Furthermore, calling players like Perreault, Bowey, Stephenson, Carrick, Boyd and Eakin "homeruns" is questionable at best. While some of them may have been good picks in regards to where they were taken in the draft, none of them are even with the team anymore, so management obviously didn't hold them in high regard.

I still really have no idea what the point is you're trying to make. Yes, management made some bad picks during the lead up to drafting Ovechkin, but that's easy to say in hindsight. Literally EVERY, SINGLE, TEAM, in the league has made bad picks in the draft, whether that be in the 1st round or the 5th. In the vast majority of cases, it's impossible to know what kind of player a kid will turn into when he's drafted at 18-19 years old. Management picks who they think is the best fit/best potential with the information and data they have at the time of the draft.

So please, tell me exactly what point are you trying to make? If it's that the Capitals management has made bad draft picks in the past, well yeah, nobody is going to argue with you there. It happens to literally every team in the league because GM's aren't psychics that can predict the future 10 years in advance. Judging from your post history, it really feels like you're just trying to start a shit storm about stuff that is completely irrelevant.

Every team makes bad draft picks
 

Marshall

A Mahoney guy
Mar 13, 2002
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Crystal Koons' cold, dead eyes.
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Piggybacking of TEB's Athletic chat, the following players are 'safe' (in his opinion):

Ovechkin, Backstrom, Wilson, Ohsie, Vrana, Kuznetsov, Sprong, Eller, Carlson, Fehervary, Samsonov

Which leaves: Kempny, Siegenthaler, Jensen, Hagelin, Panik, Dowd and Hathaway as "not-safes".

Not a lot of value there.
 

francaisvolantsparis

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Nov 21, 2018
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First of all, it's way too early to call Fehervary, McMichael and Protas home runs. They have a combined 6 games of NHL regular season experience between them. Also, your list includes many players who weren't picked in the first round, so they're irrelevant to your original argument. Furthermore, calling players like Perreault, Bowey, Stephenson, Carrick, Boyd and Eakin "homeruns" is questionable at best. While some of them may have been good picks in regards to where they were taken in the draft, none of them are even with the team anymore, so management obviously didn't hold them in high regard.

I still really have no idea what the point is you're trying to make. Yes, management made some bad picks during the lead up to drafting Ovechkin, but that's easy to say in hindsight. Literally EVERY, SINGLE, TEAM, in the league has made bad picks in the draft, whether that be in the 1st round or the 5th. In the vast majority of cases, it's impossible to know what kind of player a kid will turn into when he's drafted at 18-19 years old. Management picks who they think is the best fit/best potential with the information and data they have at the time of the draft.

So please, tell me exactly what point are you trying to make? If it's that the Capitals management has made bad draft picks in the past, well yeah, nobody is going to argue with you there. It happens to literally every team in the league because GM's aren't psychics that can predict the future 10 years in advance. Judging from your post history, it really feels like you're just trying to start a shit storm about stuff that is completely irrelevant.

Every team makes bad draft picks

please read this before:

2002
#12 Steve Eminger (D)bad choise
#13 Alexander Syomin (F)good choise
#17 Boyd Gordon (F)2nd round pick Player
#59 Maxime Daigneault (G)wasted 2nd
#77 Patrick Wellar (D)--
#92 Derek Krestanovic (F)--
#109 Jevon Desautels (F)--
#118 Petr Dvorak (F)--
#145 Robert Gherson (G)--
#179 Marian Havel (F)--
#209 Joni Lindlöf (F)--
#242 Igor Ignatushkin (F)--
#272 Patric Blomdahl (F)--
2003
#18 Eric Fehr (F)2nd round pick Player
#83 Stephen Werner (F)--
#109 Andreas Valdix (F)--
#155 Josh Robertson (F)--
#249 Andrew Joudrey (F)--
#279 Mark Olafson (F)--
2004
#1 Alexander Ovechkin (F)ok choise
#27 Jeff Schultz (D)2nd round pick Player
#29 Mike Green (D)good choise
#33 Chris Bourque (F)wasted 2nd
#62 Mikhail Yunkov (F)wasted 2nd
#66 Sami Lepistö (D)--
#88 Clayton Barthel (D)--
#132 Oscar Hedman (D)--
#138 Pasi Salonen (F)--
#166 Peter Guggisberg (F)--
#197 Andrew Gordon (F)--
#230 Justin Mrazek (G)--
#263 Travis Morin (F) --
2005
#14 Sasha Pokulok (D)wasted 1st
#27 Joe Finley (D)wasted 1st
#109 Andrew Thomas (D)--
#118 Patrick McNeill (D)--
#143 Daren Machesney (G)--
#181 Tim Kennedy (F)--
#209 Viktor Dovgan (D) --
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
What we have:
- One #1 pick. An 8 year old kid will make a good choise here. Doesn't count.
- Five #10-20 picks. Let's say #12 Eminger gives us #27 after the trade. Carlson was drafted afrer 2005, he doesn't count here. He is only a #27 pick yet here. So, the result of five #10-20 picks are one ~#5 worth Alexander Semin, a late #20-30 first round draft pick, two second round draft pick worth players and one total waste.
- Three #20-30 picks. The result: one ~#7 worth Mike Green, one 2nd round pick worth player and one total waste.
- One wasted second round draft pick.
- Two wasted late second round draft picks.
- 27 late round draft picks. NO good surprises. Nothing.

- Five #10-20 picks are 3.425 expected WAR. Our result after draft: 2.224 expected WAR. Thank you Alexander Semin.
- Three #20-30 picks = 1.134 expected WAR. Our result: 1.273. Thank you Mike Green.
- Three wasted 2nd round picks: -0.713 WAR.
- 27 wasted low picks: -2.828 expected WAR. This is mind blowing. 27 pick and nothing in return. It is huge.

Result:

Net loss of 4.600 expected WAR or ~5.77 wasted first round draft picks.

The cost of trading a bad Contract

At your service to explain my brilliant ideas. As I say in previous posts. We lost equivalent of six first round picks in 2006-2009 Drafts. We ruined a big part of the Rebuild. We spoiled the first half of Ovechkin career. Point.
No team wastes six first round draft picks in four rebuild years
 

francaisvolantsparis

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Nov 21, 2018
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Piggybacking of TEB's Athletic chat, the following players are 'safe' (in his opinion):

Ovechkin, Backstrom, Wilson, Ohsie, Vrana, Kuznetsov, Sprong, Eller, Carlson, Fehervary, Samsonov

Which leaves: Kempny, Siegenthaler, Jensen, Hagelin, Panik, Dowd and Hathaway as "not-safes".

Not a lot of value there.
I don't get how Vrana can be safe.

- he has a good trade value
- he will leave before or shortly after Ovechkin window is closed anyway
- he will be hard to resign next offseason
- he will be a target of an offer sheet agression
- he doesn't glue to our PP1
- he failed to score a point in two last playoff runs
- we have too many LW forwards
 

hb13xchamps

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Dec 23, 2011
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It is not 50%. It is 25%. Two good choises and six terrible choises. You move the goal posts, not me. Find a team that terrible in four yearsspan. The worst thing is not the first round picks on top of that but all other 30 low round picks. No NHL player from 30 picks. 30!. After 2005 we drafted 15 NHL players with 2nd and lower picks. We wasted two first round picks and we were good with 13 1st round picks.

- 87% success with 1st round picks since 2006
- one NHL player every year from low round picks since 2006.

- 75% fail in 2002-05 with 1st round picks
- No NHL player from 30 low round picks in 2002-05.
5/10 is 50%. Aren’t you the math guy? You keep changing the years to fit your narrative bud.
 

g00n

Retired Global Mod
Nov 22, 2007
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No team wastes six first round draft picks in four rebuild years

The Caps were not a rebuild team until AFTER Ovechkin was drafted in 2004. So the 2005 draft is the only one you can continue to whine about 15 years later.

Meaning you have wasted all this time fussing over two players everyone has long forgotten (Pokulok and Finley) who were only mid-late first round picks (14th and 27th).

Maybe you should look over the 2005 draft class and see how many misses other teams had in the first round.

2005 NHL Entry Draft - Wikipedia

7 future all stars out of 30 players. Two in the next round, three in the next, then one in the fourth. That's how drafting is. I'm not sure what you expect.
 

francaisvolantsparis

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Nov 21, 2018
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Okay so you’re taking out the 2006 draft then. The Islanders, Rangers, and Columbus all went 1/4 by your logic and all three had a lot worse draft picks during that span. You still lose your shitty argument.

And that’s without me diving into the rest of the league
Why do you use word 'shit' and 'shitty' in your posts? Is it personal?
 

illicit

Registered User
Jul 28, 2011
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Why do you use word 'shit' and 'shitty' in your posts? Is it personal?

Because it's a stupid argument. How was management supposed to know they were going to win the draft lottery and draft a generational winger? It's the type of argument you can only make with hindsight, so it's completely irrelevant.
 

francaisvolantsparis

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Nov 21, 2018
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Lmao and there you have it. Don’t know how else to respond so this is all you can resort to because your argument is SHITTY
Before you said 'dumb' then you said 'stupid', then you said 'Please try to explain that I’d love to hear that argument for the laughs.' I passed three times before the word 'shitty'. I don't feel like I want to discuss with you, seriously.
 

hb13xchamps

Registered User
Dec 23, 2011
9,287
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Pennsylvania
Before you said 'dumb' then you said 'stupid', then you said 'Please try to explain that I’d love to hear that argument for the laughs.' I passed three times before the word 'shitty'. I don't feel like I want to discuss with you, seriously.
Nah you just don’t want to admit you’re wrong. Why do you think everyone is coming at you? I actually went and did the work and proved your argument as flawed, like usual and you didn’t know what to do. It’s a tale as old as time. Regardless, I have better things to do with my life on a Friday night than argue with a brick wall who thinks drafting a HoF center in Nick Backstrom is an “ok” pick and Madison Bowey is a “homerun”
 
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