Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2020 Offseason Pt. 1

[francaisvolantsparis]

No.

Eakin, Boyd, Carrick, Sanford, none of those guys are homerun picks. Your whole point makes no sense, and you're not really explaining to anyone why it's important that they might have been able to do better like 14-16 years ago. The whole theory makes no sense, you shouldn't need a dissertation. Calling Backstrom "OK" and all of those other listed players homeruns just defies all reason.

Makes you look... what's the word... drunk?

I do not judge the player quality. This is why Ovechkin is an 'ok'. It is about the GM descision making. A 8 year old kid would take Ovechkin that exact year with that exact pick. It is not complicated! This is why Backstrom is an 'ok' too. But Eakin, Boyd, Carrick and Sanford are homeruns consider the 3th or 2nd round draft picks we used for them. Mike Green is a homerun, because he is much better than the #27 pick we paid for. Pokoulok is a 'waste', because we wasted a first round pick with him.

 

[g00n]

Rebuild drafts were 2003, 04, 05, 06 and 07. But 2006 and 2007 drafts were ok for the Caps. 2002, 03, 04, 05 were extremly bad, Ovechkin lottery aside. I call 2002-05 rebuild drafts, but technicaly 2002 was not.

Now you're starting to back into what I was telling you but you're not there yet.

2003 draft was not a "rebuild" draft either. The "firesale" when Ted dismantled the team didn't happen until 2004 of the 03-04 season. After that is when we got Ovechkin (2004 draft) and when the "rebuild" began.

So again, we're talking about 2 drafts ...2004 and 2005, and only one of those was objectively bad (2005) when our first rounders were 14th and 27th overall...without the benefit of a season of play.

Now, are you really saying that those two picks during a lockout would have won us multiple Cups?

 

[tenken00]

So to change the topic back to what the Caps should do this offseason, Nova Caps has a list of UFAs that Washington might be looking at. I'll just list who they mentioned and you can click on the link to see what they had to say about each player.


Forwards: Looking At The Capitals’ Best UFA Options At Forward

Vladislav Namestnikov, 27, COL, C/RW - likely cap hit of $3.5 million per season

Carl Soderberg, ARI, 34, C/LW - likely cap hit of $4.5 million per season

Mattias Janmark, DAL, 27, C/LW - likely cap hit of $1.75 million per season

Jesper Fast, 28, NYR, RW - likely cap hit of $2-3 million per season


Defense: Looking At The Capitals’ Best UFA Options On Defense

Trevor Van Riemsdyk, 29, CAR, LD - likely to get three-to-four year contract with a cap hit between $2-2.5 million

Christopher Tanev, 30, VAN, RD - likely to get three-to-five-year deal with a cap hit of around $4 million

Brenden Dillon, 29, WSH, LD - likely to get three-to-four years long with a cap hit somewhere in between $3-3.5 million

Dylan DeMelo, 27, WPG, RD - likely to get three-to-four years-long and carry a cap hit of around $2 million

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

So to change the topic back to what the Caps should do this offseason, Nova Caps has a list of UFAs that Washington might be looking at. I'll just list who they mentioned and you can click on the link to see what they had to say about each player.


Forwards: Looking At The Capitals’ Best UFA Options At Forward

Vladislav Namestnikov, COL, C/RW - likely cap hit of $3.5 million per season

Carl Soderberg, ARI, C/LW - likely cap hit of $4.5 million per season

Mattias Janmark, DAL, C/LW - likely cap hit of $1.75 million per season

Jesper Fast, NYR, RW - likely cap hit of $2-3 million per season


Defense: Looking At The Capitals’ Best UFA Options On Defense

Trevor Van Riemsdyk, CAR, Shoots Right - likely to get three-to-four year contract with a cap hit between $2-2.5 million

Christopher Tanev, VAN, Shoots Right - likely to get three-to-five-year deal with a cap hit of around $4 million

Brenden Dillon, WSH, Shoots Left - likely to get three-to-four years long with a cap hit somewhere in between $3-3.5 million

Dylan DeMelo, WPG, Shoots Right - likely to get three-to-four years-long and carry a cap hit of around $2 million

I'd look at Zach Bogosian and Mark Pysyk too

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

So to change the topic back to what the Caps should do this offseason, Nova Caps has a list of UFAs that Washington might be looking at. I'll just list who they mentioned and you can click on the link to see what they had to say about each player.


Forwards: Looking At The Capitals’ Best UFA Options At Forward

Vladislav Namestnikov, COL, C/RW - likely cap hit of $3.5 million per season

Carl Soderberg, ARI, C/LW - likely cap hit of $4.5 million per season

Mattias Janmark, DAL, C/LW - likely cap hit of $1.75 million per season

Jesper Fast, NYR, RW - likely cap hit of $2-3 million per season


Defense: Looking At The Capitals’ Best UFA Options On Defense

Trevor Van Riemsdyk, CAR, Shoots Right - likely to get three-to-four year contract with a cap hit between $2-2.5 million

Christopher Tanev, VAN, Shoots Right - likely to get three-to-five-year deal with a cap hit of around $4 million

Brenden Dillon, WSH, Shoots Left - likely to get three-to-four years long with a cap hit somewhere in between $3-3.5 million

Dylan DeMelo, WPG, Shoots Right - likely to get three-to-four years-long and carry a cap hit of around $2 million

I would keep Dillion Around 3-3.5 cap hit. Would not go over that

He also may become Seattle draft bait

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Now you're starting to back into what I was telling you but you're not there yet.

2003 draft was not a "rebuild" draft either. The "firesale" when Ted dismantled the team didn't happen until 2004 of the 03-04 season. After that is when we got Ovechkin (2004 draft) and when the "rebuild" began.

So again, we're talking about 2 drafts ...2004 and 2005, and only one of those was objectively bad (2005) when our first rounders were 14th and 27th overall...without the benefit of a season of play.

Now, are you really saying that those two picks during a lockout would have won us multiple Cups?

what does this have with 2002 to 2005 beeing terrible as hell?

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

What are the odds Orlov will be our RD starting from the next season?

 

[tenken00]

I admit, Demelo intrigues me

 

[Bieronymus Trotz]

Varly wasn’t a home run? He just shut us out and sent us home for the season...

Sounds like a solid player to go in the last third of the first round, then.

 

[g00n]

what does this have with 2002 to 2005 beeing terrible as hell?

You are the one who keeps claiming all these years were inexcusable botches of first round picks during rebuild years. But what you have been saying is 100% false. There was only ONE year like that (2005).

There is no simpler way to put this for you, and for that reason I'm still not convinced this isn't a put on.

 

[txpd]

Yanno, it's still fairly loud during the playoffs for the Caps but I feel like its been qutie a few years since it was this loud. Those Young Gun era games were truly like rock concerts all night.

This one was pretty loud.

 

[Kalopsia]

Piggybacking of TEB's Athletic chat, the following players are 'safe' (in his opinion):

Ovechkin, Backstrom, Wilson, Ohsie, Vrana, Kuznetsov, Sprong, Eller, Carlson, Fehervary, Samsonov

Which leaves: Kempny, Siegenthaler, Jensen, Hagelin, Panik, Dowd and Hathaway as "not-safes".

Not a lot of value there.

One of these things is not like the other, one of these things is not quite the same. Sprong being on the safe list is very interesting to me, I know he got good reviews while things were ramping back up, but then he didn't get a look in the playoffs so I thought maybe that'd been overstated. Maybe he's the next Connolly?

I admit, Demelo intrigues me

Me too, although after Jensen I'm a little more gun-shy about defensive defensemen who are advanced stat darlings. If he's as good as he seems, adding him and Dillon would really solidify the defense.

Dillon-Carlson
Orlov-DeMelo
Fehervary-Jensen
Siegenthaler

That looks strong to me on paper. Each pairing has the traditional puck-mover/stay-at-home combo.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

You are the one who keeps claiming all these years were inexcusable botches of first round picks during rebuild years. But what you have been saying is 100% false. There was only ONE year like that (2005).

There is no simpler way to put this for you, and for that reason I'm still not convinced this isn't a put on.

please, read this first:

2002
#12	Steve Eminger (D)	bad choise
#13	Alexander Syomin (F)	good choise
#17	Boyd Gordon (F)	2nd round pick Player
#59	Maxime Daigneault (G)	wasted 2nd
#77	Patrick Wellar (D)	--
#92	Derek Krestanovic (F)	--
#109	Jevon Desautels (F)	--
#118	Petr Dvorak (F)	--
#145	Robert Gherson (G)	--
#179	Marian Havel (F)	--
#209	Joni Lindlöf (F)	--
#242	Igor Ignatushkin (F)	--
#272	Patric Blomdahl (F)	--
2003
#18	Eric Fehr (F)	2nd round pick Player
#83	Stephen Werner (F)	--
#109	Andreas Valdix (F)	--
#155	Josh Robertson (F)	--
#249	Andrew Joudrey (F)	--
#279	Mark Olafson (F)	--
2004
#1	Alexander Ovechkin (F)	ok choise
#27	Jeff Schultz (D)	2nd round pick Player
#29	Mike Green (D)	good choise
#33	Chris Bourque (F)	wasted 2nd
#62	Mikhail Yunkov (F)	wasted 2nd
#66	Sami Lepistö (D)	--
#88	Clayton Barthel (D)	--
#132	Oscar Hedman (D)	--
#138	Pasi Salonen (F)	--
#166	Peter Guggisberg (F)	--
#197	Andrew Gordon (F)	--
#230	Justin Mrazek (G)	--
#263	Travis Morin (F)	--
2005
#14	Sasha Pokulok (D)	wasted 1st
#27	Joe Finley (D)	wasted 1st
#109	Andrew Thomas (D)	--
#118	Patrick McNeill (D)	--
#143	Daren Machesney (G)	--
#181	Tim Kennedy (F)	--
#209	Viktor Dovgan (D)	--

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

What we have:
- One #1 pick. An 8 year old kid will make a good choise here. Doesn't count.
- Five #10-20 picks. Let's say #12 Eminger gives us #27 after the trade. Carlson was drafted afrer 2005, he doesn't count here. He is only a #27 pick yet here. So, the result of five #10-20 picks are one ~#5 worth Alexander Semin, a late #20-30 first round draft pick, two second round draft pick worth players and one total waste.
- Three #20-30 picks. The result: one ~#7 worth Mike Green, one 2nd round pick worth player and one total waste.
- One wasted second round draft pick.
- Two wasted late second round draft picks.
- 27 late round draft picks. NO good surprises. Nothing.

- Five #10-20 picks are 3.425 expected WAR. Our result after draft: 2.224 expected WAR. Thank you Alexander Semin.
- Three #20-30 picks = 1.134 expected WAR. Our result: 1.273. Thank you Mike Green.
- Three wasted 2nd round picks: -0.713 WAR.
- 27 wasted low picks: -2.828 expected WAR. This is mind blowing. 27 pick and nothing in return. It is huge.

Result:

Net loss of 4.600 expected WAR or ~5.77 wasted first round draft picks.

The cost of trading a bad Contract

At your service to explain my brilliant ideas. As I say in previous posts. We lost equivalent of six first round picks in 2006-2009 Drafts. We ruined a big part of the Rebuild. We spoiled the first half of Ovechkin career. Point.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

One of these things is not like the other, one of these things is not quite the same. Sprong being on the safe list is very interesting to me, I know he got good reviews while things were ramping back up, but then he didn't get a look in the playoffs so I thought maybe that'd been overstated. Maybe he's the next Connolly?



Me too, although after Jensen I'm a little more gun-shy about defensive defensemen who are advanced stat darlings. If he's as good as he seems, adding him and Dillon would really solidify the defense.

Dillon-Carlson
Orlov-DeMelo
Fehervary-Jensen
Siegenthaler

That looks strong to me on paper. Each pairing has the traditional puck-mover/stay-at-home combo.

Fehervary-Jensen pair will not work in my opinion. Nor Siege-Jensen or Siege-Fehervary. Too little offense.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

I really think Kempny is better than Dillon on Carlson line.

 

[txpd]

You are the one who keeps claiming all these years were inexcusable botches of first round picks during rebuild years. But what you have been saying is 100% false. There was only ONE year like that (2005).

There is no simpler way to put this for you, and for that reason I'm still not convinced this isn't a put on.

Logically, if the 02, 03 and 04 drafts had been better wouldnt the team have been better in 04 and 06?

 

[g00n]

please, read this first:

I did. Now read this: only 2005 applies to your complaint.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Logically, if the 02, 03 and 04 drafts had been better wouldnt the team have been better in 04 and 06?

it could be better, but it is not like our 2007 team was 4th from the botton in roster quality.

 

[txpd]

it could be better, but it is not like our 2007 team was 4th from the botton in roster quality.

A little better is all it would take.

 

[txpd]

Piggybacking of TEB's Athletic chat, the following players are 'safe' (in his opinion):

Ovechkin, Backstrom, Wilson, Ohsie, Vrana, Kuznetsov, Sprong, Eller, Carlson, Fehervary, Samsonov

Which leaves: Kempny, Siegenthaler, Jensen, Hagelin, Panik, Dowd and Hathaway as "not-safes".

Not a lot of value there.

Orlov?

 

[Ridley Simon]

How about Hive and macco joint account?

LOL.

that is one ugly love child!

 

[Silky mitts]

Piggybacking of TEB's Athletic chat, the following players are 'safe' (in his opinion):

Ovechkin, Backstrom, Wilson, Ohsie, Vrana, Kuznetsov, Sprong, Eller, Carlson, Fehervary, Samsonov

Which leaves: Kempny, Siegenthaler, Jensen, Hagelin, Panik, Dowd and Hathaway as "not-safes".

Not a lot of value there.

Orlov is the big name that a lot of people are saying isn’t safe

 

[Carlzner]

So to change the topic back to what the Caps should do this offseason, Nova Caps has a list of UFAs that Washington might be looking at. I'll just list who they mentioned and you can click on the link to see what they had to say about each player.


Forwards: Looking At The Capitals’ Best UFA Options At Forward

Vladislav Namestnikov, 27, COL, C/RW - likely cap hit of $3.5 million per season

Carl Soderberg, ARI, 34, C/LW - likely cap hit of $4.5 million per season

Mattias Janmark, DAL, 27, C/LW - likely cap hit of $1.75 million per season

Jesper Fast, 28, NYR, RW - likely cap hit of $2-3 million per season


Defense: Looking At The Capitals’ Best UFA Options On Defense

Trevor Van Riemsdyk, 29, CAR, LD - likely to get three-to-four year contract with a cap hit between $2-2.5 million

Christopher Tanev, 30, VAN, RD - likely to get three-to-five-year deal with a cap hit of around $4 million

Brenden Dillon, 29, WSH, LD - likely to get three-to-four years long with a cap hit somewhere in between $3-3.5 million

Dylan DeMelo, 27, WPG, RD - likely to get three-to-four years-long and carry a cap hit of around $2 million

Fast would be a great addition. Didn’t realize he was a UFA

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Piggybacking of TEB's Athletic chat, the following players are 'safe' (in his opinion):

Ovechkin, Backstrom, Wilson, Ohsie, Vrana, Kuznetsov, Sprong, Eller, Carlson, Fehervary, Samsonov

Which leaves: Kempny, Siegenthaler, Jensen, Hagelin, Panik, Dowd and Hathaway as "not-safes".

Not a lot of value there.

seems like a big name might be missing....

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

I maintain a lot of teams probably did not materialize as much from the drafts immediately preceding the lockout/death of dead puck as those drafts that followed it. I don’t have anything to back up my claim, but I’m just assuming that the average amount of players who made it to the NHL and their subsequent longevity was less than other drafts.


Also as someone else point out, the better we are at drafting in that era, the less likely we get Ovechkin and Backstrom.