Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2020 Offseason Pt. 1

[SpinningEdge]

Because he clearly looked broken

Remember how good he was when he came back earlier this year? Something def happened.

could also be the Reirden effect

 

[txpd]

Because he clearly looked broken

He looked like a 3rd pair defenseman. Not someone that should be skating with a wounded Norris Trophy attack defenseman. If he is that broken, then LTIR the guy

 

[tenken00]

He looked like a 3rd pair defenseman. Not someone that should be skating with a wounded Norris Trophy attack defenseman. If he is that broken, then LTIR the guy

Lol cmon txpd! Can't LTIR someone thats not even on IR! Thats mean

 

[txpd]

Remember how good he was when he came back earlier this year? Something def happened.

could also be the Reirden effect

He had what i would call a typical adrenaline boost. Those first games he was jacked up. Like a kid called up from the minors. Its also very possible that his injury slowed him down as the games piled up. Reirden was the guy that coached him when he went from 7th defenseman junk to Carlson's partner on a cup team and the coach coaching him when he started so hot.

 

[txpd]

Lol cmon txpd! Can't LTIR someone thats not even on IR! Thats mean

If he is broken, then he can be put on LTIR. Would you be shocked if he didnt pass his next physical?

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

If he is broken, then he can be put on LTIR. Would you be shocked if he didnt pass his next physical?

Worst case we can give him the alzner treatment and send him to the minors

 

[txpd]

Worst case we can give him the alzner treatment and send him to the minors

The injury slowed him down. Put him on a 3rd pair and he would be fine

 

[tenken00]

If he is broken, then he can be put on LTIR. Would you be shocked if he didnt pass his next physical?

He is healthy, he just said as much in his interview. He's just not the same player, or was just a flash in the pan. Can't be forcing guys to go on LTIR.

 

[maacoshark]

They need to add defensemen. Kempny, Jensen, Siegenthaler, Fehervary is a bad defense

I think Siegenthaler and Fehervary will be fine. I believe Fehervary is ready to be a full time NHL dman. He has the potential to be a solid 2 way defenseman. He is top 4 potential. It is likely that Siegenthaler will always be 3rd pair and pk specialist.
We also have Alexayev in the mix. I think he will see some time with the big club next season. Whenever that may be.
I'm not a fan of Jensen or Kempny but I will admit Jensen played well in the playoffs. Kempny was a bust.
Can the Caps afford to add a veteran dman? What kind of cap space will we have?

 

[hb13xchamps]

He looked like a 3rd pair defenseman. Not someone that should be skating with a wounded Norris Trophy attack defenseman. If he is that broken, then LTIR the guy

Or send him somewhere else for some kind of draft compensation

 

[txpd]

I think Siegenthaler and Fehervary will be fine. I believe Fehervary is ready to be a full time NHL dman. He has the potential to be a solid 2 way defenseman. He is top 4 potential. It is likely that Siegenthaler will always be 3rd pair and pk specialist.
We also have Alexayev in the mix. I think he will see some time with the big club next season. Whenever that may be.
I'm not a fan of Jensen or Kempny but I will admit Jensen played well in the playoffs. Kempny was a bust.
Can the Caps afford to add a veteran dman? What kind of cap space will we have?

A defense with Fehervary and Alexayev playing in the same game is awful. Add Siegenthaler to that and who are your top 4 defense? If you think thats better than having players that can make reliable NHL reads, I would differ.

Next season it might be that Fehervary becomes an established NHL player. A good defenseman he will not be yet.

I think the problem with Jensen now isnt so much Jensen but his partner. They need somebody that can produce some offense in that spot. Means it has to be Orlov or someone new. Dillon wont make that work.

I think more and more we will see Orlov and Carlson together next season matched up against opposing first lines with most often Backstrom and Oshie.

Who the 2nd left d is, i dont know

 

[txpd]

Or send him somewhere else for some kind of draft compensation

Thats what i was saying. There are a number of teams that would take him for their 3rd pair. The return doesnt really matter

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Kempny>Dillon

Kempny is the same player today as he was in 2018 playoff run. You see it in game, stats show it. Same skating, same number of hits, same point production, same everything. Only difference is a terrible coach in the last two seasons. Every time they say 'Kempny is broken', they say it as a fact, but NEVER anyone brought a proof of that. 'You know nothing' is their only argument.

The problem is Dillon. We gave a 2nd round pick for him. It is a common issue for most people: then you commit an error, you commit a second one to repair the first damage. Like in casino. You lose money, and you play again and again to get you money back.

Giving the draft pick for Dillon was the first error. Giving him a juicy contract will be the second error. Trading away Kempny will be the third error.

Dillon is not a top4 D on a contender team. Kempny is. People are in love with Dillon for some reasons. But he is not the solution, they think, he is. And it will cost us a lot.

To make it short: 1) We made an error and lost a 2nd draft pick. 2) Now let's pretend everything is fine and Dillon is the Messiah. 3) Let's clear the ground for him and give him a Messiah treatment and contract. 4) We need space, we need to trade Kempny 5) Let's pretend Kempny is suddenly a bad player. 6) Kempny had an excellent regular season, but what so ever, he is broken since the last summer. 7) Someone tells us how broken our logic is? Let's sh*t on him!

Kempny>Dillon

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Hereunder the evidence of Kempny not-be-broken fact:

	Player	GP	TOI/GP	Goals/60	First Assists/60	Total Points/60	IPP	Shots/60	Rush Attempts/60	Rebounds Created/60	Minor/60	Penalties Drawn/60	Takeaways/60	Hits/60	Hits Taken/60	Shots Blocked/60	Smart Sum
Fall 2016	Michal Kempny	19	14.546	0.00	0.22	0.43	22.22	4.99	0.43	0.87	0.65	0.43	0.43	6.73	4.99	3.47	0.432
Winter 2016/17	Michal Kempny	24	13.651	0.37	0.18	1.10	42.86	5.68	0.55	0.18	0.92	0.18	0.37	6.41	6.96	4.40	-0.166
Spring 2017	Michal Kempny	7	13.457	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.64	0.00	0.64	0.00	0.00	1.27	2.55	2.55	6.37	0.050
Fall 2017	Michal Kempny	13	13.888	0.00	0.33	1.00	30.00	5.65	0.66	0.33	0.66	0.66	0.66	3.66	5.98	2.99	0.267
Winter 2017/18	Michal Kempny	18	14.035	0.24	0.71	0.95	33.33	6.89	0.00	0.95	0.71	0.24	0.71	3.80	5.46	7.12	0.573
Spring 2018	Michal Kempny	22	16.017	0.34	0.17	0.51	16.67	5.45	0.34	0.51	1.02	0.34	0.68	4.43	5.45	5.96	-0.222
Fall 2018	Michal Kempny	22	16.480	0.33	0.17	0.99	30.00	5.79	0.00	0.50	1.32	0.33	1.32	3.48	6.45	6.29	-0.527
Winter 2018/19	Michal Kempny	39	17.414	0.35	0.27	1.06	27.27	5.04	0.00	0.09	1.24	0.44	0.88	3.27	4.68	5.74	-0.210
Spring 2019	Michal Kempny	10	16.007	0.00	0.75	1.50	66.67	4.87	0.37	0.75	0.75	0.37	0.37	4.87	4.87	2.25	0.613
Fall 2019	Michal Kempny	20	16.684	0.54	0.90	1.98	50.00	3.42	0.36	1.08	0.72	0.00	0.36	1.80	4.68	5.03	1.266
Winter 2019/20	Michal Kempny	34	16.214	0.00	0.11	0.54	19.23	4.90	0.11	0.65	0.33	0.33	0.54	2.94	5.12	3.27	0.088
Spring 2020	Michal Kempny	4	13.971	0.00	1.07	1.07	14.29	6.44	0.00	0.00	1.07	0.00	0.00	1.07	4.29	1.07	-2.071

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Silky mitts]

@txpd has done a better job than @francaisvolantsparis convincing me not to want to pay Dillon $2M a year

 

[SpinningEdge]

Let’s be honest - everyone except superstars have declined under Reirden. Other players have excelled or pretty much played to their potential this year after leaving Washington.

I’m hopeful/optimistic a lot will be fixed with a much better coach.

kempny was with queenville and trotz and then to reirden. That’s two hof coaches to a guy who was a really bad head coach

I think you hold tight and wait until new coach comes in.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

In last three regular seasons Dillon played only 26.59% of 5v5 time vs best opposing line with SJ. He was NOT a top4 defenseman on their team. And even the rare occasions he was defending vs best players he averaged 4.37 goals against. A terrible result. Sorry guys, your Messiah is an imposter. He is NOT a top4 D. He is NOT a shutdown defenseman. He is an excellent 5-6D who speaks a lot and can hit and nothing else special. He replaces preretirement Orpik on the third line. We wasted our 2nd round draft pick. Time to move on.

Player	Team	TOI % vs best	GA/60 vs best
Justin Braun	S.J	55.46	3.83622062
Marc-Edouard Vlasic	S.J	54.8	3.07683653
Erik Karlsson	S.J	46.91	2.88044836
Brent Burns	S.J	31.08	4.40103277
Brenden Dillon	S.J	26.59	4.37428184
Radim Simek	S.J	25.54	6.85430204

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

For comparison:

Player	Team	TOI % vs best	GA/60 vs best
Matt Niskanen	WSH	57.92	2.57665086
Dmitry Orlov	WSH	46.44	3.01400293
Michal Kempny	WSH	44.34	3.28278936
John Carlson	WSH	41.54	3.65079875
Brooks Orpik	WSH	25.97	3.61834339
Radko Gudas	WSH	25.14	5.03872897
Nick Jensen	WSH	22.16	4.32476572
Jonas Siegenthaler	WSH	19.53	3.58403683
Christian Djoos	WSH	11.15	2.34495114
Madison Bowey	WSH	10.51	4.3102693
Taylor Chorney	WSH	9.52	18.9084035

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Kempny is a legit top4 Defensman who can play vs best forwards in the League.

You can notice that Niskanen was NOT replaced to the point that Todd didn't use Jensen-Orlov vs best opponents this season. Orlov's numbest went down then he was forced to play vs best with Jensen or Carlson.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Conclusions:

We have to..

1) trade for a legit 1-2D to replace Niskanen;
2) give more love to Kempny and Orlov;
3) upgrade Jensen with a more offensive D on the third line;
4) say goodbye to Dillon or give him a $1.5M per year contract.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Conclusions:

We have to..

1) trade for a legit 1-2D to replace Niskanen;
2) give more love to Kempny and Orlov;
3) upgrade Jensen with a more offensive D on the third line;
4) say goodbye to Dillon or give him a $1.5M per year contract.

We would all love a 1-2 Defender how do we get one in the salary cap league?

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

We would all love a 1-2 Defender how do we get one in the salary cap league?

 

[usiel]

Damn catching up but glazed over posts abut hindsight 20/20 drafting 18 year olds is like.... I'm sure all the entry draft scouts look at the past and try to predict but still....look below.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

SPREADSHEETS

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Here is my ranking for UFA defensemen:

Player	Smart rank
Alex Pietrangelo
Joel Edmundson
Sami Vatanen
TJ Brodie
Derek Forbort
Christopher Tanev
Dmitry Kulikov
Tyson Barrie
Torey Krug
Justin Braun
Radko Gudas
Zach Bogosian
Travis Hamonic
Mark Pysyk
Kevin Shattenkirk
Justin Schultz
all others	-0-

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

While adding a talent like Pietrangelo is interesting it’s easy to look at the sharks adding Karlson and turning into suck.