Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2020 Offseason Pt. 1

[CapitalsCupReality]

Id guess the actual untouchable list is:

Ovechkin, Backstrom, Wilson, Carlson, Orlov, Samsonov.

more like....

 

[Calicaps]

shame Greenies prime was so short... it was like 2 years.

I blame the marijuanas.

 

[um]

I blame the marijuanas.

he got the munchies?

 

[trick9]

Their defense is already filled with question marks behind Carlson. I wouldn't be opposed to trading Orlov but in terms of fixing the defense, finding him a right partner is propably the easier way to go. Unless they think Orlov is part of the attitude problem group.

 

[tenken00]

Their defense is already filled with question marks behind Carlson. I wouldn't be opposed to trading Orlov but in terms of fixing the defense, finding him a right partner is propably the easier way to go. Unless they think Orlov is part of the attitude problem group.

I think Orlov-Jensen should be given another shot. Reirden mixed up his pairs so much because of the other defenders, but this pairing looked the best out of the 7382837305 pairings that were tried.

Both are mobile, both can skate with the puck. Maybe Orlov should be jumping into the rush more with Jensen back there. But Jensen can also do the same. It worked at the end of the regular season before they changed pairings again after the shutdown. It worked again when they got paired again for a few games against the Islanders.

I would only break them up if you got an offer for Orlov you couldn't refuse. Every other spot on the D is a question mark.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think Orlov-Jensen should be given another shot. Reirden mixed up his pairs so much because of the other defenders, but this pairing looked the best out of the 7382837305 pairings that were tried.

Both are mobile, both can skate with the puck. Maybe Orlov should be jumping into the rush more with Jensen back there. But Jensen can also do the same. It worked at the end of the regular season before they changed pairings again after the shutdown. It worked again when they got paired again for a few games against the Islanders.

I would only break them up if you got an offer for Orlov you couldn't refuse. Every other spot on the D is a question mark.

the giant question mark is Jensen. That pair only does well if he’s on and that’s a crapshoot IMO. We’ll see, maybe he’s finally comfortable.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

the giant question mark is Jensen. That pair only does well if he’s on and that’s a crapshoot IMO. We’ll see, maybe he’s finally comfortable.

Jensen to me is a guy who is built for the playoffs. He’s a guy you just deal with in the regular season knowing his style pays off come ploffs.

That’s comparable to Orpik. You just got to navigate deficits until the rink shrinks in playoffs.

I think that’s what they were hoping Gudas would be... he was not.

 

[tenken00]

the giant question mark is Jensen. That pair only does well if he’s on and that’s a crapshoot IMO. We’ll see, maybe he’s finally comfortable.

I agree, while encouraging to see Jensen elevate his game finally after a year or so on the team, he has to keep proving he can do it. I just think it may be prudent to keep that pair together so that he can prove it. There are bigger worries on the team. Namely who to pair Carlson with on defense.

Hopefully the Islanders series was more a case of dealing with injury, but Carlson was literally a pylon out there defensively. Couldnt skate laterally if there was a meteor coming. And I like Dillon, but hes the wrong fit for Carlson. Even though he's a tough stay at home defender, he's just too slow to catch any miscues from Carlson. I think it might be best to look for a different option and move away from Dillon or to pair Carlson with Fever if he is ready and let them get acclimated over the regular season.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Jensen to me is a guy who is built for the playoffs. He’s a guy you just deal with in the regular season knowing his style pays off come ploffs.

That’s comparable to Orpik. You just got to navigate deficits until the rink shrinks in playoffs.

I think that’s what they were hoping Gudas would be... he was not.

"Built for the playoffs".....wow....that's a mind boggling notion. He was much better this time, pretty bad last....I'm not ready to buy into that he's a PTP'er just yet, but fingers crossed. Looks like the Kempny deal isn't working out, so this one, it would be nice at least if it did.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

"Built for the playoffs".....wow....that's a mind boggling notion. He was much better this time, pretty bad last....I'm not ready to buy into that he's a PTP'er just yet, but fingers crossed. Looks like the Kempny deal isn't working out, so this one, it would be nice at least if it did.

He's a conservatively minded defenseman that tends to stay at home in the offensive zone, he doesn't overly rely on his athleticism to get him out of precarious positions. He's deliberate in his puck movement and seldom makes a pass blindly or rushes to get it off stick. He's intentional in his stick work and seldom takes penalties from being out of position or lazy. In the modern NHL playoffs this is what you want out of defenseman, you know what you're getting every night. The rink shrinks in size and the choices you make are amplified ten fold. I think when Jensen tends to look bad it's usually just the result of him getting left holding the hot potato after the ten other bad choices teammates made that led to that moment. I think his biggest critique is that he doesn't necessarily cope well when the responsibilities of others fall through.


In the regular season you'll see high risk/high reward players tend to pinch in more often, that has a tendency to leave Jensen out to dry. Some players can handle that heat, they know how to quickly re-evaluate the priorities when everything goes tits up, I don't think Jensen is great at that. If he's paired with a guy that doesn't have a Wild Card streak to him you'll probably see a bit more of a consistently positive season. I think that's probably why Orlov is on the hot seat so to speak, he's a bit of a river boat gambler at times, he's had a few instances this year where he left Jensen out to dry and to the masses it just looked like "Jensen sucks".

 

[searle]

He's a conservatively minded defenseman that tends to stay at home in the offensive zone, he doesn't overly rely on his athleticism to get him out of precarious positions. He's deliberate in his puck movement and seldom makes a pass blindly or rushes to get it off stick. He's intentional in his stick work and seldom takes penalties from being out of position or lazy. In the modern NHL playoffs this is what you want out of defenseman, you know what you're getting every night. The rink shrinks in size and the choices you make are amplified ten fold. I think when Jensen tends to look bad it's usually just the result of him getting left holding the hot potato after the ten other bad choices teammates made that led to that moment. I think his biggest critique is that he doesn't necessarily cope well when the responsibilities of others fall through.


In the regular season you'll see high risk/high reward players tend to pinch in more often, that has a tendency to leave Jensen out to dry. Some players can handle that heat, they know how to quickly re-evaluate the priorities when everything goes tits up, I don't think Jensen is great at that. If he's paired with a guy that doesn't have a Wild Card streak to him you'll probably see a bit more of a consistently positive season. I think that's probably why Orlov is on the hot seat so to speak, he's a bit of a river boat gambler at times, he's had a few instances this year where he left Jensen out to dry and to the masses it just looked like "Jensen sucks".

Be interesting to see the with you/without you stats for Orlov and Carlson - the former does seem a gambler at times as you say, and Carlson sure does look dopey at times. Always useful to try to get a feel for who pulls people up a level and who's a bit of an anchor

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Be interesting to see the with you/without you stats for Orlov and Carlson - the former does seem a gambler at times as you say, and Carlson sure does look dopey at times. Always useful to try to get a feel for who pulls people up a level and who's a bit of an anchor

Not sure about Carlson vs Jensen, but there is a bit in here about how Orlov kind of makes Jensen’s stats not completely one-to-one with his play
Capitals: Nick Jensen… Unsung Hero? Or Deserving Scapegoat?

 

[txpd]

An interesting question is how much is Carlson's production going to regress with a new coach. Reirden clearly opened up Carlson's offensive game from last season to this one. He said as much. You would think a new coach would ease that back.

I think its also very possible that the new coach makes Orlov and Carlson a typical 1st pair and put the opposing first line as their assignment. Reirden used a 1 offense and 1 defense structure. If they go to a straight forward, 1, 2, 3 you would have, say, Dillon and Jensen on the second which is an offensive void. Unless the Caps are matching 1st line against 1st line that means that their best offensive defenseman is never playing 5 on 5 with their top offensive forwards.

Orlov Carlson
Dillon Jensen
Siegenthaler Fehervary

It would almost suggest that they need to let Dillon go and get an offensive upside left defenseman

 

[Corby78]

An interesting question is how much is Carlson's production going to regress with a new coach. Reirden clearly opened up Carlson's offensive game from last season to this one. He said as much. You would think a new coach would ease that back.

I think its also very possible that the new coach makes Orlov and Carlson a typical 1st pair and put the opposing first line as their assignment. Reirden used a 1 offense and 1 defense structure. If they go to a straight forward, 1, 2, 3 you would have, say, Dillon and Jensen on the second which is an offensive void. Unless the Caps are matching 1st line against 1st line that means that their best offensive defenseman is never playing 5 on 5 with their top offensive forwards.

Orlov Carlson
Dillon Jensen
Siegenthaler Fehervary

It would almost suggest that they need to let Dillon go and get an offensive upside left defenseman

I like having an offensive D with a defensive D. Maybe because that's how we did it on the teams I played on. I would keep Orlov on the 2nd pair and roll the first two pair with fairly even minutes.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Player	Shot	Playmaker	1/Discipline	Skill	Defense	Strength	1/Skating	Devotion	DEF contribution	OFF contribution	SUM
John Carlson	0.42	1.09	0.48	0.26	1.45	1.83	2.99	4.46	8.246	23.555	31.801
Nate Schmidt	0.19	0.66	0.28	0.16	1.91	1.60	3.05	4.34	15.530	10.279	25.809
Dmitry Orlov	0.21	0.70	0.51	0.45	1.83	4.60	2.77	3.47	20.677	4.717	25.394
Matt Niskanen (2019)	0.24	0.76	0.57	0.25	1.06	5.49	5.82	3.63	6.368	5.014	11.382
Kevin Shattenkirk (2017)	0.26	0.61	0.55	0.28	1.21	3.48	4.89	4.17	6.529	4.633	11.162
Radko Gudas	0.12	0.75	0.77	0.43	0.85	10.72	5.98	4.66	9.222	1.400	10.622
Christian Djoos	0.15	0.79	0.26	0.30	0.87	1.54	3.61	3.43	4.896	4.377	9.273
Connor Carrick	0.23	0.72	0.76	0.15	1.06	3.51	7.47	4.49	2.943	5.912	8.854
Karl Alzner (2017)	0.13	0.54	0.44	0.20	0.67	4.33	6.13	5.75	6.185	2.290	8.475
Michal Kempny	0.25	0.76	0.88	0.33	0.72	3.32	5.23	4.96	2.576	4.403	6.980
Brooks Orpik (2017)	0.09	0.67	1.04	0.35	0.38	11.06	5.30	6.69	5.101	1.300	6.401
Mike Green (2015)	0.42	0.70	0.82	0.52	1.09	3.26	6.88	4.58	2.885	3.287	6.172
Brenden Dillon	0.10	0.79	0.77	0.32	0.53	8.95	5.34	3.46	3.992	1.849	5.841
Madison Bowey	0.14	0.82	1.07	0.27	0.91	4.47	5.76	3.98	2.627	2.953	5.579
Nick Jensen	0.03	0.60	0.38	0.40	1.21	3.05	8.70	3.43	3.829	0.207	4.036
Jonas Siegenthaler	0.11	0.59	0.91	0.54	0.75	3.71	7.15	5.86	2.506	0.672	3.178

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[searle]

Player	Shot	Playmaker	1/Discipline	Skill	Defense	Strength	1/Skating	Devotion	DEF contribution	OFF contribution	SUM
John Carlson	0.42	1.09	0.48	0.26	1.45	1.83	2.99	4.46	8.246	23.555	31.801
Nate Schmidt	0.19	0.66	0.28	0.16	1.91	1.60	3.05	4.34	15.530	10.279	25.809
Dmitry Orlov	0.21	0.70	0.51	0.45	1.83	4.60	2.77	3.47	20.677	4.717	25.394
Matt Niskanen (2019)	0.24	0.76	0.57	0.25	1.06	5.49	5.82	3.63	6.368	5.014	11.382
Kevin Shattenkirk (2017)	0.26	0.61	0.55	0.28	1.21	3.48	4.89	4.17	6.529	4.633	11.162
Radko Gudas	0.12	0.75	0.77	0.43	0.85	10.72	5.98	4.66	9.222	1.400	10.622
Christian Djoos	0.15	0.79	0.26	0.30	0.87	1.54	3.61	3.43	4.896	4.377	9.273
Connor Carrick	0.23	0.72	0.76	0.15	1.06	3.51	7.47	4.49	2.943	5.912	8.854
Karl Alzner (2017)	0.13	0.54	0.44	0.20	0.67	4.33	6.13	5.75	6.185	2.290	8.475
Michal Kempny	0.25	0.76	0.88	0.33	0.72	3.32	5.23	4.96	2.576	4.403	6.980
Brooks Orpik (2017)	0.09	0.67	1.04	0.35	0.38	11.06	5.30	6.69	5.101	1.300	6.401
Mike Green (2015)	0.42	0.70	0.82	0.52	1.09	3.26	6.88	4.58	2.885	3.287	6.172
Brenden Dillon	0.10	0.79	0.77	0.32	0.53	8.95	5.34	3.46	3.992	1.849	5.841
Madison Bowey	0.14	0.82	1.07	0.27	0.91	4.47	5.76	3.98	2.627	2.953	5.579
Nick Jensen	0.03	0.60	0.38	0.40	1.21	3.05	8.70	3.43	3.829	0.207	4.036
Jonas Siegenthaler	0.11	0.59	0.91	0.54	0.75	3.71	7.15	5.86	2.506	0.672	3.178

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

What is this?

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

What is this?

Too long to explain. Look at the last column. In general you want to have a ~18.000 point players on your first pair, ~12.000 on your second pair and ~6.000 on your 3th.

 

[caps4cup]

An interesting question is how much is Carlson's production going to regress with a new coach. Reirden clearly opened up Carlson's offensive game from last season to this one. He said as much. You would think a new coach would ease that back.

I think its also very possible that the new coach makes Orlov and Carlson a typical 1st pair and put the opposing first line as their assignment. Reirden used a 1 offense and 1 defense structure. If they go to a straight forward, 1, 2, 3 you would have, say, Dillon and Jensen on the second which is an offensive void. Unless the Caps are matching 1st line against 1st line that means that their best offensive defenseman is never playing 5 on 5 with their top offensive forwards.

Orlov Carlson
Dillon Jensen
Siegenthaler Fehervary

It would almost suggest that they need to let Dillon go and get an offensive upside left defenseman

In that scenario, Dillon and Jensen should likely be the shut down pair. Or it should at least be split pretty evenly. Carlson isn’t good enough defensively right now to take on those assignments, unless something changes with the new coach.

 

[txpd]

I like having an offensive D with a defensive D. Maybe because that's how we did it on the teams I played on. I would keep Orlov on the 2nd pair and roll the first two pair with fairly even minutes.

I get that. When Carlson could play with Orpik and Orlov with Niskanen, it worked great. 4 top 4 defensemen. When Kempny and Jensen are the partners.....There is a structural problem with the defense corp that needs attention

 

[txpd]

In that scenario, Dillon and Jensen should likely be the shut down pair. Or it should at least be split pretty evenly. Carlson isn’t good enough defensively right now to take on those assignments, unless something changes with the new coach.

I would disagree. Carlson being told to add offensive attacks to his game at the same time as adding minutes probably means trying to conserve some energy. Then sticking a clearly diminished Kempny out there with him. what did you expect.

I like Jensen but you think Jensen is as good defensively as Carlson? I dont. I think what you would see is Carlson being assigned shutdown duty and as a result making defense, rather than offense his priority. As a result his defensive game will elevate and his offensive chances drop. His points will drop by 50%.

If you took Orlov off of shutdown duty and tasked him with prioritizing offense, you would notice more turnovers and more aggressive decisions blow up in his face.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Hereunder a different method to rank defensemen. TOI/GP is more important.

Player	GP	TOI/GP	Goals/60	Total Assists/60	Minor/60	Penalties Drawn/60	Takeaways/60	Hits/60	Hits Taken/60	Shots Blocked/60	DEF	OFF	SUM
Dmitry Orlov	233	18.7105866	0.21	0.7	0.51	0.45	1.83	4.6	2.77	3.47	33.7508209	28.5059332	62.256754
Colton Parayko	226	18.5974926	0.19	0.57	0.2	0.36	1.33	4.34	5.25	4.77	43.5345817	9.20711717	52.7416989
Jaccob Slavin	232	17.9926006	0.17	0.82	0.23	0.29	2.73	1.75	5.19	4.07	39.8628885	9.55601576	49.4189042
John Carlson	231	17.1906205	0.42	1.09	0.48	0.26	1.45	1.83	2.99	4.46	18.0135407	28.3632788	46.3768195
Seth Jones	209	19.2437799	0.25	0.72	0.46	0.33	1.83	3.4	4.07	4.33	28.9006071	16.8897344	45.7903415
Nate Schmidt	196	17.6484694	0.19	0.66	0.28	0.16	1.91	1.6	3.05	4.34	38.2418866	7.34471583	45.5866024
Alex Pietrangelo	219	18.4152968	0.33	0.79	0.34	0.42	1.71	1.84	5.04	4.42	20.289684	20.0391957	40.3288797
Zach Werenski	222	18.2629129	0.41	0.59	0.24	0.24	1.23	2.18	3.05	3	24.8246782	15.4922845	40.3169628
Erik Johnson	201	17.7077114	0.24	0.61	0.39	0.3	1.4	4.82	3.86	4.52	28.9376294	11.3792674	40.3168969
Jacob Trouba	207	17.3830113	0.15	0.82	0.7	0.37	1.53	5.09	3.4	5.42	23.7532301	16.3174518	40.0706819
Ryan Suter	229	19.1985444	0.16	0.82	0.42	0.14	0.55	2.32	1.57	3.41	15.9679338	16.8445285	32.8124622
Torey Krug	201	15.7327529	0.25	0.85	0.53	0.63	1.23	2.81	4.53	3.07	6.52577384	22.8591852	29.3849591
Tyson Barrie	216	17.5701389	0.32	0.92	0.47	0.3	0.9	1.96	4.09	3.62	7.32501197	18.4132809	25.7382929
Adam Pelech	194	16.4257732	0.17	0.58	0.43	0.23	1.71	5.57	6.16	5.08	20.8828561	3.7641875	24.6470436
Mark Pysyk	210	14.8830952	0.23	0.56	0.5	0.35	1.59	4.95	3.84	3.94	16.0798221	8.4721827	24.5520048
Jeff Petry	235	17.5632624	0.23	0.71	0.42	0.29	1.19	6.54	5.32	3.56	14.9566831	8.94620897	23.902892
TJ Brodie	216	17.6283951	0.14	0.69	0.46	0.35	1.83	0.84	3.56	3.34	10.6305301	12.3247106	22.9552407
Miro Heiskanen	150	18.401	0.24	0.7	0.22	0.3	1.26	1.46	5.2	2.59	11.6708789	10.4670536	22.1379325
Trevor van Riemsdyk	206	14.1652913	0.14	0.64	0.23	0.16	1.5	1.71	3.93	4.15	18.0704115	3.05662716	21.1270387
Sami Vatanen	169	16.4446746	0.15	0.63	0.65	0.6	0.84	3.89	4.6	4.47	6.69793591	13.4477674	20.1457034
Joel Edmundson	201	16.4211443	0.25	0.53	0.89	0.38	0.75	6.05	3.54	4.65	7.34184935	11.9854148	19.3272641
Cody Ceci	212	18.4734277	0.17	0.47	0.25	0.17	0.61	5.07	5.65	4.61	15.2982324	3.10912217	18.4073545
Travis Hamonic	193	17.2037997	0.16	0.47	0.43	0.23	1.26	2.8	5.42	5.2	13.923035	3.68939519	17.6124302
Matt Niskanen	216	17.6101852	0.22	0.69	0.55	0.27	0.93	5.49	5.52	3.71	8.2578903	7.67066453	15.9285548
Christian Djoos	119	13.3932773	0.15	0.79	0.26	0.3	0.87	1.54	3.61	3.43	7.07728859	7.12656945	14.2038581
Michal Kempny	182	16.0889194	0.25	0.76	0.88	0.33	0.72	3.32	5.23	4.96	3.65976	9.69771968	13.3574797
Radko Gudas	210	14.4769841	0.12	0.75	0.77	0.43	0.85	10.72	5.98	4.66	5.9029149	6.11780148	12.0207164
Brenden Dillon	232	16.0925287	0.1	0.79	0.77	0.32	0.53	8.95	5.34	3.46	3.45525489	6.05765346	9.51290835
Justin Schultz	138	16.2706522	0.16	0.53	0.24	0.19	0.53	2.4	6.57	4.44	6.12065318	2.53602798	8.65668116
Dylan DeMelo	199	15.4654104	0.08	0.68	0.84	0.58	0.68	5.48	7.39	4.58	2.80907829	5.64131545	8.45039374
Luke Schenn	115	13.0510145	0.08	0.36	0.6	0.44	0.56	15.27	5.6	5.36	5.94595478	2.12922087	8.07517564
Dmitry Kulikov	170	15.3597059	0.11	0.48	0.8	0.41	0.87	5.61	6.76	3.91	3.51484807	3.55926698	7.07411505
Madison Bowey	154	14.1931818	0.14	0.82	1.07	0.27	0.91	4.47	5.76	3.98	2.50283084	4.52687716	7.02970799
Nick Jensen	229	15.2015284	0.03	0.6	0.38	0.4	1.21	3.05	8.7	3.43	5.06641861	1.7252306	6.79164921
Christopher Tanev	166	15.5070281	0.09	0.61	0.49	0.16	0.93	1.63	7.04	5.48	4.53571459	1.56269991	6.0984145
Jonas Siegenthaler	90	12.402037	0.11	0.59	0.91	0.54	0.75	3.71	7.15	5.86	2.00117214	3.55174801	5.55292015
Connor Carrick	110	14.4489394	0.23	0.72	0.76	0.15	1.06	3.51	7.47	4.49	3.2790158	2.26182519	5.54084099

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

The point is that we only have two but extremely good defensemen, the rest are 4-5D and 6-7D caliber players. Based on pure math and statistics, not on the drunk eyewatching misbeliefs. We should find one greater D to play with Orlov and Carlson.

The Jensen story is like you make play Vladimir Konstantinov with Tyler Sloan and then you say 'Oh, look, they are ok together, they may even be good vs best opponents.' Of course, they can. Orlov can. With a good pair, he will destroy the enter League.

 

[txpd]

Postseason
Green 71 gp 9 g 26 a 35 p -2 75 PIM 23:24 avg
That is 1 fight and 35 minors, that’s about 0.09 expected gpg given to the other team in the playoffs, by comparison Brendan Witt had 13 minors in 31 games and that guy loved to rack up minors
Carlson 112 gp 18 g 48 a 66 p +1 44 PIM 24:21 avg
Orlov 63 gp 2 g 17 a 19 p +1 16 PIM 21:36 avg

I dont remember all his playoff partners but a good chunk of that was with Shoane Morrisonn. You take penalties when your partner is an AHL player. I am pretty sure he was with Schultz too.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

I dont remember all his playoff partners but a good chunk of that was with Shoane Morrisonn. You take penalties when your partner is an AHL player. I am pretty sure he was with Schultz too.

Mike Green pair	playoffs TOI	on-Ice Sv%
Shaone Morrisonn	273	88.46
Roman Hamrlik	236	97.41
Tim Gleason	159	97.12
Jeff Schultz	157	86.57
Karl Alzner	139	98.04
John Erskine	94	86.67
Tom Poti	53	96.55

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Silky mitts]

I dont remember all his playoff partners but a good chunk of that was with Shoane Morrisonn. You take penalties when your partner is an AHL player. I am pretty sure he was with Schultz too.

Mike Green pair	playoffs TOI	on-Ice Sv%
Shaone Morrisonn	273	88.46
Roman Hamrlik	236	97.41
Tim Gleason	159	97.12
Jeff Schultz	157	86.57
Karl Alzner	139	98.04
John Erskine	94	86.67
Tom Poti	53	96.55

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

All those guys stayed back so Green could jump up, don’t remember those guys giving away the puck or being in the wrong position and Green taking a good penalty to take away an opportunity, maybe him getting beat then not having faith in his partner