OEL is a clear buyout candidate IMO. The formula I use to make most of the decision is simple. OEL cap - buyout cap - replacement player cap must be greater than zero. So the question is can you find a player that is equivalent or better than OEL at a number that makes the formula work. In the 2 years you mentioned as concerning we're talking roughly 2.4M. I think it is very reasonable that we can find a player that is as good or better at that cap. Especially if we are talking about what OEL might look like 2 years from now. As it is we're on the hook for 7.2M in those same years you are worried about. I think that a buyout offers us a better opportunity to make use of that 7.2M. One way or another we've got 5M in dead cap because an underperforming player is dead cap relative to their underperformance.
Another benefit to the buyout is the short-term cap crunch. The cap savings for the next 2 years is about 7M and then 4.8M. With other terrible contracts set to expire within and just after this window, the flexibility that we've all craved is there for the taking.
There 4 years of 2.1M dead cap afterwards is the downside. It's annoying but not crippling. When that time comes it will actually be 2M in additional space compared to the previous 2 years. Hopefully the world is a better place and the cap will have risen and 2M is barely relevant. Alternatively we're in a WW3 hellscape and we won't care anyhow.
This is the year for the buyout. 300k/yr savings and a 2M savings 8 years from now is useless. Especially when the largest cap relief comes with a buyout this year when it has incredible utility. That said, If they keep him this year then next year makes sense too.