Canucks News, Rumours, & Fantasy GM

[JohnHodgson]

do you need to be so abrasive all the time?

i'm not missing the point. i don't think the 2.2 in penalties from 2027 to 2031 is particularly meaningful. i think the 4.8 in 2025 and 2026 is a team killer

4.8M in cap penalty is a "team killer" in 2025 and 2026.

But OEL (7.1M) in 2025 and 2026 is not?

Make that make sense for me bud.

 

[andora]

You really can't wrap the idea of buying out a $7M cap anchor (that has 4 more years remaining on his deal)?

OEL is only 32 in a couple months. He played 79 games last year and has been relatively durable his entire career.

He has 4 more years on his deal... expecting him to be LTIRed is just a dream/fantasy at this point in time.

When the buyout is $2M, it's negligible to the cap. Minnesota is a legitimate contender with $12M in dead cap. $2M dead cap is honestly not a big deal year over year.

I dont think minnesota works as a comparison.. nor are they a contender

They cant score, lost fiala and will lose more defence this year. That dead cap will kill these next two years

Yes they could go a couple rounds but they will get figured out come playing the same team over and over

 

[credulous]

4.8M in cap penalty is a "team killer" in 2025 and 2026.

But OEL (7.1M) in 2025 and 2026 is not?

Make that make sense for me bud.

you can't just ignore that oel the player can still be traded (yes, yes, it will be hard and maybe impossible. i get that you don't believe it will be possible) where as the cap penalty can't

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

you can't just ignore that oel the player can still be traded (yes, yes, it will be hard and maybe impossible. i get that you don't believe it will be possible) where as the cap penalty can't

Yeah...and you can't just ignore that like, one number is a lot lower than the other.

Do the math. A $4.8M that has a 0% chance to be traded, or a $7.1M cap hit that has a 1% chance of being traded.

I know which way I'm leaning.

 

[timw33]

The number one problem with not buying out OEL is that we have to put up with having him on this roster. I'm against him having a free pass again and being fed top-4 minutes when he does not deserve them and actively makes the team worse. Just straight up sick of OEL as a player and what he represents (the franchise altering deal that f***ed us). Would rather go for full clean break from the Benning era.

 

[credulous]

Yeah...and you can't just ignore that like, one number is a lot lower than the other.

Do the math. A $4.8M that has a 0% chance to be traded, or a $7.1M cap hit that has a 1% chance of being traded.

I know which way I'm leaning.

you can buy him out in 2025 and the hit is only 4.2m. all i'm saying is that there shouldn't be any urgency in buying oel out

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

The number one problem with not buying out OEL is that we have to put up with having him on this roster. I'm against him having a free pass again and being fed top-4 minutes when he does not deserve them and actively makes the team worse. Just straight up sick of OEL as a player and what he represents (the franchise altering deal that f***ed us). Would rather go for full clean break from the Benning era.

Yep. You can't go on about how you preach accountability and then spoonfeed a guy who is behind Noah Juulsen on the depth chart top 4 minutes while paying him Quinn Hughes money.

 

[JohnHodgson]

you can't just ignore that oel the player can still be traded (yes, yes, it will be hard and maybe impossible. i get that you don't believe it will be possible) where as the cap penalty can't

Dude has an NMC.

And we would have to pay picks to trade him.

So you're optimal scenario is this?

Canucks trade 1st round pick + OEL to trade him (less than 5% of this happening given NMC and assets to give up).

Or

$4.8M cap penalty for years 3 and 4 and then $2M after

I'm actually going to ignore that OEL can be traded because he has a NMC and we would have to give up MAJOR assets to trade him.

 

[Regress2TheMeme]

People were calling for the team to buy out Miller when he started the season slow. Same thing with Pettersson when he started last year in a slump. Of course OEL is less likely to bounce back being older and more broken down, but it's not out ofthe question he could regain some sort of form in a more healthy environment and time to heal up. You only get to blow your brains out once, so let's explore other, less painful options first.

 

[JohnHodgson]

The number one problem with not buying out OEL is that we have to put up with having him on this roster. I'm against him having a free pass again and being fed top-4 minutes when he does not deserve them and actively makes the team worse. Just straight up sick of OEL as a player and what he represents (the franchise altering deal that f***ed us). Would rather go for full clean break from the Benning era.

100%

What kind of culture are you building if you let OEL take up 20 minutes a night when he's absolutely cooked?

Just have to admit it was a huge mistake and cut it clean.

 

[Peen]

This post doesn’t make sense.

4.8M penalty is still less than what OEL is making in year 3 and 4.

It then drops to a palatable $2M after, in which the cap should be going up.


Not surprised you came up with the worst solution out of all the possible combinations

If we’re going to pay OEL 7M, he’s not going to be riding the press box for 4 years bro.

bro bro bro

 

[SeawaterOnIce]

Hold off on any buyouts or trades until 2024. See what shakes down.

It's likely OEL will give it a go but will ultimately suffer additional injuries due to his inability to avoid hits on the ice. I still foresee LTIRetirement after next season.

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

you can buy him out in 2025 and the hit is only 4.2m. all i'm saying is that there shouldn't be any urgency in buying oel out

So you'd prefer the $7.1M for the next two years isntead of the 0 and ~$2M cap hits? What? Why are you advocating for the worst of both worlds?

 

[credulous]

no i'm saying that going into 2025 the canucks are looking to be in cap trouble once again and kuzmenko's deal will be up. will it be worth to give up a first (and more even) to potentially keep kuzmenko? is it smart to put a 4.8m cap penalty on the books now instead of using the two years to maybe investigate other alternatives?

buying out oel now gets you some short term cap flexibility but it just pushes the problems down the road to 2025 and that's the year that really matters imo

 

[JohnHodgson]

you can buy him out in 2025 and the hit is only 4.2m. all i'm saying is that there shouldn't be any urgency in buying oel out

There actually is because buying him out opens 7M cap space next year - in which we desperately need.

We are also hoping to compete next year, so how is having OEL at 7M going to be productive at all? He's just going to waste another superstar year from Petey and Hughes.

So you'd prefer the $7.1M for the next two years isntead of the 0 and ~$2M cap hits? What? Why are you advocating for the worst of both worlds?

Yup.

I feel like people aren't even looking at the math... just saying shit for saying shit.

The 4 years of buyout v.s. 4 years of OEL is HIGHLY beneficial for us.

The $2M penalty (with the cap likely going up) in year 5 and onwards will likely be negligible to building a contending roster.

 

[credulous]

There actually is because buying him out opens 7M cap space next year - in which we desperately need.

We are also hoping to compete next year, so how is having OEL at 7M going to be productive at all? He's just going to waste another superstar year from Petey and Hughes.

how are you gonna use that 7m when it comes with a 4.8m penalty three and four seasons from now? all you're really doing is buying two extra years of boeser on this roster. it's way smarter to move boeser now and just live with the oel contract

 

[Horvat1C]

Minny is a very good team - could make it to WCF and it wouldn't be a surprise. Keep in mind they have $12M in dead cap.

$2M in dead cap in 4 years... the % of dead cap is going to be nothing compared to what Minny has to endure.

What will $2M buy you in 4 years? Maybe a bottom pairing defenseman or a bottom six forward?

You calling Minnesota a contender is honestly more baffling than the OEL buyout thing. Kaprisov scored a goal per game last Playoffs and by the end of the series they were getting crushed by the Blues.

I understand your rationale for the buyout and it does make sense. It would be possible to navigate those years with the buyout. But its impossible that having 5M or 2M in dead cap hit would be better than having 0M in dead cap hit. We can navigate OEL's remaining term just fine and not hamstring ourselves unnecessarily.

Pretty much every scenario that does not involve 8 years of dead cap is better:
- He returns after an extended offseason fully healed and plays better
- He moves down the lineup and performs well with less responsibility
- If he is absolutely terrible on the ice, then he is buried in the depth chart
- Injuries mount and he LTIRes at some point
- If our hand is forced due to cap constraints, he can be dumped in a trade when he has less term or bought out down the line with less of a penalty.
- Who knows maybe we'll get a compliance buyout or Expansion draft or some other crazy rare opportunity to get rid of the deal.

 

[JohnHodgson]

Hold off on any buyouts or trades until 2024. See what shakes down.

It's likely OEL will give it a go but will ultimately suffer additional injuries due to his inability to avoid hits on the ice. I still foresee LTIRetirement after next season.

And if he doesn't?

Banking on a player to go on LTIR would be one of the worst strategic moves an organization could pull off in the NHL.

Not surprised many are advocating for it here.

 

[andora]

I think what @credulous is advocating for is underatanding the permanent result of the buyout - and due to that result it should be a last resort

If they want to move off of players .. the usual suspects you still want and need to do that whether we buy out oel or not

Focus on those things first which can be controllable and have fluidity and can be manipulated (like horvat to first to hronek)

They can accomplish a lot this offseason and can make improvements without buying out oel - i did the work and posted here somewhere (few replied because it was probably a surprise that it isnt as complain worthy as we pretend it is)

 

[JohnHodgson]

You calling Minnesota a contender is honestly more baffling than the OEL buyout thing. Kaprisov scored a goal per game last Playoffs and by the end of the series they were getting crushed by the Blues.

I understand your rationale for the buyout and it does make sense. It would be possible to navigate those years with the buyout. But its impossible that having 5M or 2M in dead cap hit would be better than having 0M in dead cap hit. We can navigate OEL's remaining term just fine and not hamstring ourselves unnecessarily.

Pretty much every scenario that does not involve 8 years of dead cap is better:
- He returns after an extended offseason fully healed and plays better
- He moves down the lineup and performs well with less responsibility
- If he is absolutely terrible on the ice, then he is buried in the depth chart
- Injuries mount and he LTIRes at some point
- If our hand is forced due to cap constraints, he can be dumped in a trade when he has less term or bought out down the line with less of a penalty.
- Who knows maybe we'll get a compliance buyout or Expansion draft or some other crazy rare opportunity to get rid of the deal.

Calling a team that has 84 points in 67 games and second in their division is baffling?

Calling the team with the third most points in the CONFERENCE is baffling?

Ye aight boss.

 

[rypper]

When the Canucks are finally ready to LTIRetire OEL, the NHL will change the rules about it and we won't be able to. Calling it right now.

 

[sting101]

He had a bad leg at the beginning for a while, had a bad leg somewhere in the middle as well, then finished off the season on a bad leg, but other than that his legs were great.

OEL seems unable to battle for pucks or pivot quickly enough to make plays about 80 percent of the time every season, and defensive plays he had the imagination to make earlier in his career with quick stops, reversals, pivoting one way then quickly pivoting back, etc, are completely out of reach for him now and he doesn't attempt them. His instinct and basic skill are still there but his lower body seems to be shot.

He obviously was playing hurt. He started ok but you could tell that ankle injury he had at the worlds was effecting his speed.

In game 25 (against Arizona ironically) he got hurt. The 30 games after that his ice time and play was noticeably poor. Multiple games where you could see him struggle back to his feet, a lack of physicality and his pivot was bad.

6 games where he had his ice time neutered and a minus 20 in 30 games. 40 hits by game 25 and then 18 over the next 30 games till he was shut down. Can he recover is the question

 

[JohnHodgson]

I think what @credulous is advocating for is underatanding the permanent result of the buyout - and due to that result it should be a last resort

If they want to move off of players .. the usual suspects you still want and need to do that whether we buy out oel or not

Focus on those things first which can be controllable and have fluidity and can be manipulated (like horvat to first to hronek)

They can accomplish a lot this offseason and can make improvements without buying out oel - i did the work and posted here somewhere (few replied because it was probably a surprise that it isnt as complain worthy as we pretend it is)

OEL has a NMC and would require major assets to trade. Relying on a fantasy trade or a fantasy LTIR is not good strategic planning.

It's either keep him or buy it out - that's what the team can control

 

[Horvat1C]

Calling a team that has 84 points in 67 games and second in their division is baffling?

Calling the team with the third most points in the CONFERENCE is baffling?

Ye aight boss.

Didn't know Cups were won based on regular season points.

 

[Nucker101]

I genuinely can't wrap my head around how people want to buy out OEL. Its the same type of short term "Benning" kind of move that lives forever on these boards.

A player past 30 with multiple injuries that are similar in nature (ankle/leg) including one right now is logically a decent candidate to be LTIRed at some point.

Plus there is the real possibility that OEL was playing injured this year and he'll be better next year with more than a full offseason of healing and training.

Strapping ourselves with 8 years of dead, unmovable cap is counterproductive every single time.

The goal is to win and make the playoffs asap. They can’t afford to wait 1-2 more years to LTIR OEL.

They have to buy him out or hope he somehow rebounds.

Hughes is a UFA in 4 years, Demko is a UFA in 3 years, that’s their window