Canucks News, Rumours, & Fantasy GM

[ziploc]

Andreev eh? Wonder who his agent is...

6 feet, 183 pounds, not huge, not tiny, a natural centre. Could be interesting.

 

[MS]

At age 25 and with 6 goals in the NCAA last year I’d hope on an AHL deal only as with Gatcomb and McManus last year.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

What do you mean you can't use the savings right away? The first year actually ends up being the best year.

You realize just how bad OEL has been this year. The fact every player we have plugged in instead of him has looked better, even the last dozen or so games of Stillman looked better.

If you have time to prepare for the penalty it isn't that bad. It is when you can't prepare for it you get screwed.

If you can predict an OEL LTIR great if not... Lucic is still playing. That is just hoping and dreaming at this stage. If it looked like a real option sure.

We can't sign anyone meaningful unless they agree to a two year contract. It isn't like we could go and bring in an impact player and sign them long term because we then have to account for a future penalty of 5M.

Yes, I realize OEL has been dogshit for most of the season. That's what I'd rather deal with his cap hit now and not have a penalty of some degree for the next eight years.

Buying him out now isn't preparing for that penalty though. Like I said, we can't really do anything with the 8M savings next season unless we can find someone willing to take a short term deal in free agency or trade for someone who isn't a long term plan. And all for what, exactly? There's no one player we're bringing in next season that makes us any more of a bubble team at best.

It isn't about predicting whether OEL will go on LTIR but having that potential option given his injury history. Once he's bought out, then we're stuck with a penalty for the next eight years. That isn't hoping or dreaming but rather gambling on a potential out.

Put simply, we're screwed no matter what happened: buying him out gives us a penalty for almost a decade while keeping him could be a 7M albatross. The only difference is the latter gives out a chance his cap disappears whereas the other doesn't.

 

[sting101]

100%. Very jealous they can have a guy like Roy cantering their 4th line or moving up and down the line up.

yes so am i. That was a tidy piece of work trading Haula for Nick Roy. Liked Nick Roy since his draft year where i thought he would be a early 2nd rounder and slipped badly for some reason.

i like the way Amen is trending for our 4th line and Raty i got a feeling will be a good 3C after a couple seasons of development

 

[Hansen]

Andreev eh? Wonder who his agent is...

6 feet, 183 pounds, not huge, not tiny, a natural centre. Could be interesting.

Not ideal but if he gains about 25 lbs and loses an inch he could be the stout centre Podz and Krav need

 

[racerjoe]

We can't sign anyone meaningful unless they agree to a two year contract. It isn't like we could go and bring in an impact player and sign them long term because we then have to account for a future penalty of 5M.

Yes, I realize OEL has been dogshit for most of the season. That's what I'd rather deal with his cap hit now and not have a penalty of some degree for the next eight years.

Buying him out now isn't preparing for that penalty though. Like I said, we can't really do anything with the 8M savings next season unless we can find someone willing to take a short term deal in free agency or trade for someone who isn't a long term plan. And all for what, exactly? There's no one player we're bringing in next season that makes us any more of a bubble team at best.

It isn't about predicting whether OEL will go on LTIR but having that potential option given his injury history. Once he's bought out, then we're stuck with a penalty for the next eight years. That isn't hoping or dreaming but rather gambling on a potential out.

Put simply, we're screwed no matter what happened: buying him out gives us a penalty for almost a decade while keeping him could be a 7M albatross. The only difference is the latter gives out a chance his cap disappears whereas the other doesn't.

So it is better to have a vague chance at having him maybe go onto LTIR than just flat out saving on the cap? What odds would you give that he goes on LTIR?

The point of planning for the cap is figuring out what to do with his cap as it goes up and down. They could use that space on a valued Cap dump, that has 2 years left. What do I mean by valued cap dump, I mean a guy who is valuable but being paid too much for a year or two. Or maybe like the Canes you grab a Burns or Pacioretty.

It gives you options.

 

[sting101]

regarding OEL?

first off people are remembering how he finished hobbling around on a bad leg and losing sight of the fact he was our 2nd best defenseman the last 2 yrs.

I would be shocked if we bought him out. I'm pretty certain whether it's with Hronek or Bear he will be expected to be in our top4 and having a bounce back year after allowing him the time to heal and train. He already produced positive results with bear and Hronek is better.

Lastly we have a player who's body is getting worn down. LTIR is a real possibility over the next couple years Buying him out (going back to the first point) makes no sense

Take the trade out of your head, take the part of the year where he could barely lift himself off the ice and turn out of your head.

I dont see it. Attaching 8yrs and 20 million to Aqua and our cap is not in the cards

 

[racerjoe]

regarding OEL?

first off people are remembering how he finished hobbling around on a bad leg and losing sight of the fact he was our 2nd best defenseman the last 2 yrs.

I would be shocked if we bought him out. I'm pretty certain whether it's with Hronek or Bear he will be expected to be in our top4 and having a bounce back year after allowing him the time to heal and train. He already produced positive results with bear and Hronek is better.

Lastly we have a player who's body is getting worn down. LTIR is a real possibility over the next couple years Buying him out (going back to the first point) makes no sense

Take the trade out of your head, take the part of the year where he could barely lift himself off the ice and turn out of your head.

I dont see it. Attaching 8yrs and 20 million to Aqua and our cap is not in the cards

I don't think we will do it. I just think it would be best if we did. I am pretty sure FAQ has that as a non starter. I also don't think we could trade him.

 

[ohnoeszz]

We can't sign anyone meaningful unless they agree to a two year contract. It isn't like we could go and bring in an impact player and sign them long term because we then have to account for a future penalty of 5M.

Yes, I realize OEL has been dogshit for most of the season. That's what I'd rather deal with his cap hit now and not have a penalty of some degree for the next eight years.

Buying him out now isn't preparing for that penalty though. Like I said, we can't really do anything with the 8M savings next season unless we can find someone willing to take a short term deal in free agency or trade for someone who isn't a long term plan. And all for what, exactly? There's no one player we're bringing in next season that makes us any more of a bubble team at best.

It isn't about predicting whether OEL will go on LTIR but having that potential option given his injury history. Once he's bought out, then we're stuck with a penalty for the next eight years. That isn't hoping or dreaming but rather gambling on a potential out.

Put simply, we're screwed no matter what happened: buying him out gives us a penalty for almost a decade while keeping him could be a 7M albatross. The only difference is the latter gives out a chance his cap disappears whereas the other doesn't.

Precisely.

Buying out OEL solves nothing. It makes a bad problem worse. We are currently stuck with 4 more years of 7.26 mil cap hit. If we buy him out, there will be 2 years of ~4.7 mil cap hit. You then have to replace him at LD for ~2.5 or you are spending more at the position for those 2 years.

Then you also add years and years of a Luongo level cap penalty you can't remove.

Play him next year. With any luck he reverts back to being a passable top 4. More likely than that, he might be able to hold down the 3LD spot. If we can get through 2 more years with him in the lineup maybe we can start working on a trade or ltir situation.

 

[Luck 6]

We can't sign anyone meaningful unless they agree to a two year contract. It isn't like we could go and bring in an impact player and sign them long term because we then have to account for a future penalty of 5M.

Yes, I realize OEL has been dogshit for most of the season. That's what I'd rather deal with his cap hit now and not have a penalty of some degree for the next eight years.

Buying him out now isn't preparing for that penalty though. Like I said, we can't really do anything with the 8M savings next season unless we can find someone willing to take a short term deal in free agency or trade for someone who isn't a long term plan. And all for what, exactly? There's no one player we're bringing in next season that makes us any more of a bubble team at best.

It isn't about predicting whether OEL will go on LTIR but having that potential option given his injury history. Once he's bought out, then we're stuck with a penalty for the next eight years. That isn't hoping or dreaming but rather gambling on a potential out.

Put simply, we're screwed no matter what happened: buying him out gives us a penalty for almost a decade while keeping him could be a 7M albatross. The only difference is the latter gives out a chance his cap disappears whereas the other doesn't.

That’s not really true, you’re basing this on a flat cap. If the cap rises significantly after next year, which it is forecasted to at least, then this shouldn’t be the case.

The case would be that buying out OEL would give us the immediate cap space to improve the roster, this would be maintained by the cap rising.

 

[andora]

I don't think we will do it. I just think it would be best if we did. I am pretty sure FAQ has that as a non starter. I also don't think we could trade him.

with the OEL buyout, i think it only makes sense if other things fall into place.

the priorities as they have been for forever is figuring out poolman/myers/boeser/pearson etc... once you have as clear as possible understanding of how these are going to shake out and how you want to plan for the next 5 years. only then i believe OEL buyout becomes an option

i also think they can work these other contracts, leave OEL alone for a year and still make improvements.

That’s not really true, you’re basing this on a flat cap. If the cap rises significantly after next year, which it is forecasted to at least, then this shouldn’t be the case.

The case would be that buying out OEL would give us the immediate cap space to improve the roster, this would be maintained by the cap rising.

i don't think it makes sense to make such a decision on 'if' as you put it. too much up in the air this year for prospective 2-4 financial planning

 

[racerjoe]

with the OEL buyout, i think it only makes sense if other things fall into place.

the priorities as they have been for forever is figuring out poolman/myers/boeser/pearson etc... once you have as clear as possible understanding of how these are going to shake out and how you want to plan for the next 5 years. only then i believe OEL buyout becomes an option

i also think they can work these other contracts, leave OEL alone for a year and still make improvements.



i don't think it makes sense to make such a decision on 'if' as you put it. too much up in the air this year for prospective 2-4 financial planning

I see it almost the other way around. When teams know you are in a cap crunch they will try to squeeze you. If you make the room with a buyout, you don't "have" to make other moves.

 

[andora]

I see it almost the other way around. When teams know you are in a cap crunch they will try to squeeze you. If you make the room with a buyout, you don't "have" to make other moves.

i get what you're saying - i believe that the 'squeeze' storyline gets exaggerated sometimes.

regardless of which we do 'first' - they still 'need' to do other moves

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

Precisely.

Buying out OEL solves nothing. It makes a bad problem worse. We are currently stuck with 4 more years of 7.26 mil cap hit. If we buy him out, there will be 2 years of ~4.7 mil cap hit. You then have to replace him at LD for ~2.5 or you are spending more at the position for those 2 years.

Then you also add years and years of a Luongo level cap penalty you can't remove.

Play him next year. With any luck he reverts back to being a passable top 4. More likely than that, he might be able to hold down the 3LD spot. If we can get through 2 more years with him in the lineup maybe we can start working on a trade or ltir situation.

You can replace OEL for the league minimum, not "~$2.5M".

 

[timw33]

You can replace OEL for the league minimum, not "~$2.5M".

Yep, we've already proven that when Briesbois and Wolanin step in and give us better results with that roster spot. Hell, throw Wolanin a 4 year deal to ensure we can easily cover OEL's 2 bad years of buyout penalty in years 3 and 4. That's the kind of calculated risk I would love to see the management take.

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

The only reason to not buy out OEL is if you think, with high confidence, that you can LTIRetire him within the next season or so. That's the only reason.

 

[andora]

is it possible OEL can play stronger in this new system? i keep reading ahlers are replacing him, or are they able to play within this structure and do ok? i mean brisebois and juulsen are SLOW.. but are holding their own - we don't think OEL can be better in this structure?

 

[mriswith]

The only reason to not buy out OEL is if you think, with high confidence, that you can LTIRetire him within the next season or so. That's the only reason.

If he played injured all year and the team expects him to get healthy and return to last years form I could see them giving him another year before making a decision.

It's a very low bar he couldn't overcome this year - but he just has to be a 2 - 2.5M player to not be worth buying out.

 

[timw33]

is it possible OEL can play stronger in this new system? i keep reading ahlers are replacing him, or are they able to play within this structure and do ok? i mean brisebois and juulsen are SLOW.. but are holding their own - we don't think OEL can be better in this structure?

I feel like one of the strongest parts of OEL's game in his prime was his mobility and skating and now injuries have completely nuked that he hasn't been able to adjust.

Those AHL developed guys were never plus-skaters and have developed their games around those limitations.

 

[Josepho]

is it possible OEL can play stronger in this new system? i keep reading ahlers are replacing him, or are they able to play within this structure and do ok? i mean brisebois and juulsen are SLOW.. but are holding their own - we don't think OEL can be better in this structure?

I mean, it's not impossible but that's definitely not something you can afford to bank on if you intend on being competitive next season.

 

[theguardianII]

The only reason to not buy out OEL is if you think, with high confidence, that you can LTIRetire him within the next season or so. That's the only reason.

They may need him on LTIR to make the cap. They are so far over as estimated by CF for next year.
Salary at over 100 million for next year and only 17 roster spots.

 

[Peen]

A fun activity is looking at the organizational winger depth.

A lot of question marks.

 

[bandwagonesque]

regarding OEL?

first off people are remembering how he finished hobbling around on a bad leg and losing sight of the fact he was our 2nd best defenseman the last 2 yrs.

He had a bad leg at the beginning for a while, had a bad leg somewhere in the middle as well, then finished off the season on a bad leg, but other than that his legs were great.

OEL seems unable to battle for pucks or pivot quickly enough to make plays about 80 percent of the time every season, and defensive plays he had the imagination to make earlier in his career with quick stops, reversals, pivoting one way then quickly pivoting back, etc, are completely out of reach for him now and he doesn't attempt them. His instinct and basic skill are still there but his lower body seems to be shot.

 

[SeawaterOnIce]

I feel like one of the strongest parts of OEL's game in his prime was his mobility and skating and now injuries have completely nuked that he hasn't been able to adjust.

Those AHL developed guys were never plus-skaters and have developed their games around those limitations.

People thinking a 32 year old defenseman can suddenly redevelop their skating and physicality after an accumulation of new and prexisting injuries are in denial. OEL is cooked.

Danny Dekeyser, who was a fantastic NHL defenseman lost one aspect to his game and was flat out done despite multiple attempts to rehab.

 

[krutovsdonut]

They may need him on LTIR to make the cap. They are so far over as estimated by CF for next year.
Salary at over 100 million for next year and only 17 roster spots.

salary is irrelevant. they are at $83 million in cap. depending on how much ltir they can count on, they may need to move somebody. the $64,000 question is whether oel has gone to robidas island or will be returning.