I’ve evolved my thinking on this. I think the way you have to frame a Mikheyev cap dump is as the cost to acquire the player you want to sign. For example—it’s not:
VAN: (nothing)
SJS: 2025 1st + Ilya Mikheyev
It would be:
VAN: Jake Guentzel (or whichever top-six forward)
SJS: 2025 1st + Ilya Mikheyev
I think Vancouver should be all over trading for Guenztel’s rights if Carolina is unable to sign him. It may cost as much as a third round pick—perhaps less.
The difference between offering him $64m over eight years vs $64m over seven years is over $1m AAV per year. That could be the difference to keeping Joshua, or Zadorov—or making some other splash.
Carolina would have motivation to do it too. They probably would prefer him in the western conference if they can’t sign him.
IMO, you would think if Carolina were going to sign him—it would’ve happened by now.