Seravalli: Canes discussing long term deal with Kotkaniemi, Canes want 8 years

[Habs Halifax]

Trying to extend anybody of value past the flat cap years is not as easy as it sounds. No agent is going to do favors in the seasons after the NHLPA pays of the outstanding balance! 2 more season after this one? Just look at the trends on any recent contract with more than 3/4 years of term.

We looking at a $90M - $100M salary cap faster than most realize. Bookmark it if you wish. People forget that the cap was expected to be $84M -$88M range depending on escrow before Covid derailed things. That was two seasons ago and now we have one more team generating revenue with new US TV deals kicking in. Inflation will be off the charts once Covid is in the past and the outstanding balance is paid to the Owners.

 

[Unbiased Fan]

And if they never break out, you have an albatross on your hands that is buyout proof.

But the cap hit is still manageable. I’m a risk taker and I think signing Jesperi Kotekneimi to a 8 year contract at around 5 per year would be a great calculated risk.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Hard not to come back to the fact, he is still just 21.
His fourth year in the league..........yes he should never had been put in the league so soon, by the habs, but the kid is still just that............still thinking he coul be a 45-55 pt producing 2-3 C in the league.....
As for the contract, 8 years seems a stretch....more like 5-6 years would make more sense?

If they want to go 8 years, KK's agent is going to make them pay for the 5-8 year range. It won't be as low as some fans think. What are his incentives or risks to signing for $4M for 8 years when he can get the $4M AAV in a shorter term and exit that when the cap is much higher than today when he would be in prime years?

 

[Unbiased Fan]

You are correct but you are then hoping that the breakout happens. It's a gamble either way when you consider short term vs long term. This kid was drafted as a long term prospect so if you believe in him, go for the long term deal. I do think he will improve more yet still but how much is guess work. Not even KK knows that

100% you don’t get to the top without taking risk tho

 

[Junohockeyfan]

But the cap hit is still manageable. I’m a risk taker and I think signing Jesperi Kotekneimi to a 8 year contract at around 5 per year would be a great calculated risk.

If i am KK, i jump on that in a heartbeat. If i am the Canes, no way do i gamble like that, especially when i am in compete mode.

 

[Habs Halifax]

100% you don’t get to the top without taking risk tho

Lets call it calculated risks if you believe in the kid. I get that.

What do fans on HF boards think they can get KK at for 8 years though? Easier said than done to expect that you can get him for $4.5M or $5M for 8 years? He has leverage with arbitration and can easily get $4M for 3 or 4 years IMO and then exit that in his prime with a much higher cap. And we have to remember that his bank account is looking very good at the moment. It's going to be around $9M (before taxes) after this season thanks to the $6.1M he got this year. He's already set for life at the age of 21 and he can bet on himself too and force the 3/4 year term if he don't like the 8 year AAV being thrown at him.

I'd be very curious to see what both the Canes and KK's agent agree with on a 8 year AAV. I think it's higher than what fans are thinking to be honest.

If I was KK's agent, this is what I spin back: Fans are going to freak out but they are also not looking deep in the context of what each side is looking at. KK has leverage with arbitration and he will already be set for life with earning about $9M after this year ends.

* 3/4 year deal at $4M - $5M range
* 8 years at $6M - $7M range

 

[Habs Halifax]

If i am KK, i jump on that in a heartbeat. If i am the Canes, no way do i gamble like that, especially when i am in compete mode.

Put yourself in KK's shoes:

* Soon to be 22 and has already earned about $9M. Dangling an AAV that is team friendly for 8 years when he already has $9M (before taxes)? This is not the same as an ELC and then on bridge year where he might have $4M (before taxes). The kid likely has $4M sitting in the back collecting interest already. That $6.1M contract did that for him.

* He has arbitration leverage and can easily force a 3/4 year term at $4M - $4.5M range. Why would he sign a 8 year deal at $5M when he can exit a 3/4 year term in his prime when the cap is much much higher.

KK has an agent and I'd fire him if he said a 8 year contract at $5M was a good offer.

 

[Foppberg]

I think he will be a decent middle 2C once he matures. This if the funny part though... there is no way we get that reply from you and others if he was with the Habs still.

Decent numbers? Not that much different that what he did last year for the Habs. 20/56 vs 22/52 but a little more goals playing on a much better team.

Yes, you definitely would. I've always been a fan of him and have a soft spot for Montréal.

You know what they say about assumptions..

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Put yourself in KK's shoes:

* Soon to be 22 and has already earned about $9M. Dangling an AAV that is team friendly for 8 years when he already has $9M (before taxes)? This is not the same as an ELC and then on bridge year where he might have $4M (before taxes).

* He has arbitration leverage and can easily force a 3/4 year term at $4M - $4.5M range. Why would he sign a 8 year deal at $5M when he can exit a 3/4 year term in his prime when the cap is much much higher.

KK has an agent and I'd fire him if he said a 8 year contract at $5M was a good offer.

You have to balance that with the other outcome, which is he doesn't develop into a 2C and never earns anywhere close to 5M in his career. KK hasn't shown enough positive development to risk a longterm deal like that IMO.

The Canes are in really good shape capwise and can swing for a bonafide 2C / 1C in free agency to maximize their chances at a cup.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Yes, you definitely would. I've always been a fan of him and have a soft spot for Montréal.

You know what they say about assumptions..

I stand firm. There are a lot of Habs haters out there. Not many willing to post your fair comments that you made now that he is with the Canes. Reality

 

[Unbiased Fan]

If i am KK, i jump on that in a heartbeat. If i am the Canes, no way do i gamble like that, especially when i am in compete mode.

He’s making more then that now.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

He’s making more then that now.

Yes, because of unique circumstances and not because of merit. The only reason he is making 6M was because of the offer sheet.

 

[Unbiased Fan]

Lets call it calculated risks if you believe in the kid. I get that.

What do fans on HF boards think they can get KK at for 8 years though? Easier said than done to expect that you can get him for $4.5M or $5M for 8 years? He has leverage with arbitration and can easily get $4M for 3 or 4 years IMO and then exit that in his prime with a much higher cap. And we have to remember that his bank account is looking very good at the moment. It's going to be around $9M (before taxes) after this season thanks to the $6.1M he got this year. He's already set for life at the age of 21 and he can bet on himself too and force the 3/4 year term if he don't like the 8 year AAV being thrown at him.

I'd be very curious to see what both the Canes and KK's agent agree with on a 8 year AAV. I think it's higher than what fans are thinking to be honest.

If I was KK's agent, this is what I spin back: Fans are going to freak out but they are also not looking deep in the context of what each side is looking at. KK has leverage with arbitration and he will already be set for life with earning about $9M after this year ends.

* 3/4 year deal at $4M - $5M range
* 8 years at $6M - $7M range

I agree with this. If he were to take a 8 year deal at 5 per tho that would be a very nice gamble from a canes pov imo. I think he will demand higher tho.

 

[Unbiased Fan]

Yes, because of unique circumstances and not because of merit. The only reason he is making 6M was because of the offer sheet.

That’s true but at 5 mil he isn’t a bad contract

 

[Habs Halifax]

You have to balance that with the other outcome, which is he doesn't develop into a 2C and never earns anywhere close to 5M in his career. KK hasn't shown enough positive development to risk a longterm deal like that IMO.

The Canes are in really good shape capwise and can swing for a bonafide 2C / 1C in free agency to maximize their chances at a cup.

What are his risks? We can look at it from the Canes side but lets look at it from KK's side.

* Age 22 with about $9M in earnings. Plus $4M for 3 years = $21M. UFA at the age of 25 where the cap will be much higher!! Even if he don't bust out, he's still going to get $4M at a low rate from age 25-29. That would total around $41M (low end predictions)
vs
* Age 22 with $9M in earnings. Plus $5M for 8 years = $49M. UFA at the age of 30.

If I was his agent, I do zero favors on the 8 year term. It's $6M - $7M or we focus on 3/4 year terms around $4M ish. KK and his agent has the leverage. Not the Canes

 

[Junohockeyfan]

That’s true but at 5 mil he isn’t a bad contract

If he was a juggernaut defensively, i would agree. But if i am the Canes, i don't risk it. They can spend an additional 2M (7M) and get something proven and something that can help compete for the cup next season.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

What are his risks? We can look at it from the Canes side but lets look at it from KK's side.

* Age 22 with about $9M in earnings. Plus $4M for 3 years = $21M. UFA at the age of 25 where the cap will be much higher!! Even if he don't bust out, he's still going to get $4M at a low rate from age 25-29. That would total around $41M (low end predictions)
vs
* Age 22 with $9M in earnings. Plus $5M for 8 years = $49M. UFA at the age of 30.

If I was his agent, I do zero favors on the 8 year term. It's $6M - $7M or we focus on 3/4 year terms around $4M ish. KK and his agent has the leverage. Not the Canes

I am looking at it from the Canes POV more so than KK's. With KK i am sure he probably believes he will be worth it and then some. All players have ego and self-worth that extends past reality.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I agree with this. If he were to take a 8 year deal at 5 per tho that would be a very nice gamble from a canes pov imo. I think he will demand higher tho.

KK and the Agent has the leverage here after that $6.1M offer sheet. I think their approach is this... What leverage do the Canes have? Force arbitration and have it fall around $4M for one year?

3/4 year term around $4M ish
or
8 year term around $6M-$7M range.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I am looking at it from the Canes POV more so than KK's. With KK i am sure he probably believes he will be worth it and then some. All players have ego and self-worth that extends past reality.

The only leverage the Canes have is to force arbitration and it ends up one more year around $4M. Not sure how much lower the Arbitrator will go below the $6.1M threshold? Anybody want to take a guess on that part?

KK and his agent has all the leverage. If the Canes want 8 years, it's going to cost them. If KK's agent says 8 years at $5M is a good offer, I'd fire him cause he's overlooking the leverage

 

[AvatarAang]

If I was his agent, I do zero favors on the 8 year term. It's $6M - $7M or we focus on 3/4 year terms around $4M ish. KK and his agent has the leverage. Not the Canes

habs fans really spent all season trashing Kotkaniemi, and now they claim he’s getting a 7M x 8 year contract lmao

it’s so pathetic how much you want this kid to fail.

the Canes embarrasses your organization and got your GM fired. Let it go, it’s time to move on.

 

[Habs Halifax]

habs fans really spent all season trashing Kotkaniemi, and now they claim he’s getting a 7M x 8 year contract lmao

it’s so pathetic how much you want this kid to fail.

the Canes embarrasses your organization and got your GM fired. Let it go, it’s time to move on.

I actually don't want him to fail and many other Habs fans feel the same. Nice try pajama boy .

Do you think that the post you replied to as anything to do with me wanting him to bust out or fail? I question your comprehension if you do. Remember, you are the one who came at me with this trash. You upset today with the Leafs loosing to the Canucks. Leafs have been barely a playoff team since Feb 1st. Things getting tight again and you boys don't like it (again). Campbell for the Vezina!

 

[Junohockeyfan]

habs fans really spent all season trashing Kotkaniemi, and now they claim he’s getting a 7M x 8 year contract lmao

it’s so pathetic how much you want this kid to fail.

the Canes embarrasses your organization and got your GM fired. Let it go, it’s time to move on.

Neither franchise has come out ahead on that deal. In fact, one might argue that it hurt both franchises. Though the outcome is pending Dvorak's future contribution to the Habs and KK's future with the Canes.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Neither franchise has come out ahead on that deal. In fact, one might argue that it hurt both franchises. Though the outcome is pending Dvorak's future contribution to the Habs and KK's future with the Canes.

The KK deal hurt Carolina? No. You've seen their record this year?!

 

[WinterLion]

8 x 6.5?

 

[playasRus]

If they could get it done at like 4M why not?
(Won’t)

See: Colin White.