Seravalli: Canes discussing long term deal with Kotkaniemi, Canes want 8 years

[GeeoffBrown]

Canes took a gamble and it really looks like they lost. They gave up 6M in cap space but more importantly their late first round pick. Now they either have to let KK go to free agency or sign him again for more than he's worth. They can gamble that he will develop into a solid 2nd line centre, but that doesn't look all that likely now.
This hasn't really hurt them too badly though (yet).

Carolina forced the Habs into a bad position but the Habs took a gamble and traded that 1st round pick for Dvorak. Still too early to tell but it looks like the Habs gamble will actually pay off. I suspect the Habs will end up preferring Dvorak to both KK and whoever gets picked with the Canes first rounder. Again, too early to know.

Interesting. Looking at just stats, it would appear that Kotkaniemi is doing better than Dvorak, although Kasperi is playing fewer minutes, which may indicate more warts in his game. (or it could be because the Canes have a much deeper squad than the Habs)

Kotkaniemi is younger than Dvorak but already seems to be a better offensive player? Granted, I don't really love the points per 60 stat, since if a player was playing a well-rounded game, they'd probably get more 60s.

 

[japhi]

Montreal had ~11 years (or benefited from the return) of Price, Pacioretty and Subban before they got their last hurrah/cinderella run where they still ultimately fell short. Toronto still has another 5-6 years of runway to get to Montreal's peak success.

Kudos to Montreal for making the SCF because that's no easy feat, but you can only cling to that for so long and nobody remembers the runner ups.

Montreal under Bergevin had a pretty good run. One ECF, where if they don't lose Price could easily have been a SCF. Plus last years 22 game run, and 10 games the year before that. Obviously benefited from Covid luck but hardly a tire fire decade. Better results then 90% of teams.

Obviously the goal is a Cup, but in a league with a Cap and 32 teams, winning once every 32 would be considered average success. Some teams will go 30 years without a conference or Cup final appearance.

Suspect Toronto has one or two deep runs over the next 5-6 years.

 

[japhi]

Your first point is a perfect example of why habs fans don’t understand that they got absolutely screwed over by the Canes.

The Canes forced the habs to evaluate whether Dvorak at 4.5M is more valuable than KK at 6M. The habs chose Dvorak who is arguably more valuable this season.

But if the habs were competent, they could have been evaluating whether to keep Kotkaniemi at 1.2M, or trade him for Dvorak at 4.5M.

Habs fans completely ignore the fact that the Canes depreciated Kotkaniemi’s value so much that they panicked and traded for Dvorak instead of keeping the picks.

The Canes turned your dollar into a quarter and y’all panicked and traded that quarter for a penny.

Dvorak is likely worth roughly what they paid for him, a very late 1st. Hardly 1 cent on the dollar. Yes he hasn't looked great this year, no one has until MSL come on board. Overwhelming odds are that Dvorak reverts back to the mean and will be worth what the team paid.

This is very simple stuff. KK was a bad draft pick, full stop, that is what frustrates Habs fans the most.

 

[Mackiaveli]

Montreal had ~11 years (or benefited from the return) of Price, Pacioretty and Subban before they got their last hurrah/cinderella run where they still ultimately fell short. Toronto still has another 5-6 years of runway to get to Montreal's peak success.

Kudos to Montreal for making the SCF because that's no easy feat, but you can only cling to that for so long and nobody remembers the runner ups.

fwiw I am not saying that it is at all worth bragging about and I generally agree with your sentiment... I am just pointing out the irony of what he said after criticizing the Habs success this season when the Leafs haven't done anything in decades.

I also don't think they have 5-6 years ... its more like 1+2 when Matthews and Nylander are up and then their run is over

 

[behemolari]

As a Canes fan, this doesn't make me happy. I've been thoroughly unimpressed in JK. We took a chance at a cost that worked for us, no harm in that...it didn't work.

I'm rather more in favor of not tendering him an offer at all and letting him walk as a UFA. No point in chasing wasted assets with more assets...I'd rather have the cap space and roster spot than JK.

I want see one playoff run for him with Canes before judging that

 

[behemolari]

I think the Habs got fair value for the Dvorak trade. IMO the Canes hurt themselves more as I point out in my original post. Paying KK $6M essentially makes him a UFA next year. The Canes spent cap space and draft capital to screw the Habs (a team that is tanking) that they could have used to increase their shot at a cup.

Wait! Were Habs already tanking at time of the offer sheet

2021 Stanley Cup playoffs - Wikipedia

 

[StreetHawk]

You also sign long deals for a promising players which KK is definietly right now. Sad that he’s going to blossom away from MTL.

Don’t see the promise that you do. What would an 8 year AAV look like $3.6, - $4.5 mill? I use this range since it’s easily divisible by 3 which is the buyout rate if he’s bought out before age 26 which is 4 years from now.

so you pay him $1.2 mill per for 4 years for $4.8 and eat $600k in dead cap over 8 years. Minor dead cap. If it’s $4.5 mill AAV it’s $1.5 mill per in cash with $750k in dead cap.

 

[Riptide]

Giving Kotkaniemi an 8 year deal with what he has shown so far in the NHL would be bizarre. But maybe I'm just more conservative with who I want to give out long term contracts to.

All depends on the AAV. Nashville gave Jankrok a 6 yr deal after 2 seasons... worked out pretty well.

 

[Holls Blackmail]

What got autocorrected to Kotkaniemi?

 

[StreetHawk]

All depends on the AAV. Nashville gave Jankrok a 6 yr deal after 2 seasons... worked out pretty well.

Think the bottom 6 guy that got the longest term was like Colton Scissons from Nash. Got $2.85 AAV for 7 seasons.

 

[Tripledeke333]

Wait! Were Habs already tanking at time of the offer sheet

2021 Stanley Cup playoffs - Wikipedia

Are you saying that is losing a 3rd line/4th line player with a salary of $6M is what caused the Habs to go from finals to last place?

 

[japhi]

Wait! Were Habs already tanking at time of the offer sheet

2021 Stanley Cup playoffs - Wikipedia

Basically yes. That summer they were aware that Weber was done for good, and that Price was out long term. They let Phil walk in free agency. And had multiple other injury issues.

That's not to say that the KK OS was good for Montreal, it definitely wasn't. But they were expecting to finish bottom ten, while the Cup run was great, the lineup had question marks. Take out Price, Weber, Danault, and it was obvious it was going to be a brutal year from the get go.

 

[Svechhammer]

Interesting. Looking at just stats, it would appear that Kotkaniemi is doing better than Dvorak, although Kasperi is playing fewer minutes, which may indicate more warts in his game. (or it could be because the Canes have a much deeper squad than the Habs)

Kotkaniemi is younger than Dvorak but already seems to be a better offensive player? Granted, I don't really love the points per 60 stat, since if a player was playing a well-rounded game, they'd probably get more 60s.

He's getting the same reduced mins treatment that both Svechnikov and Necas got the last few years in their rookie years. The Canes are treating KK as a rookie to the system, and are allowing him to find his place. We're also kind of stuck a bit with positioning him in the lineup because he's much better as a C, but he's not going to play 2C over Trocheck, Staal is anchored to 3C, and Stepan is probably best suited for the role needed at 4C. With that being said, KK has shined with every opportunity he's had to have an increased role on the team, and we're very likely looking at him to be the Trocheck replacement next year, allowing him to slot back into his natural C position, allowing our top 6 to look like the following:
Svech-Aho-Turbo
Jarvis-KK-Necas

 

[Reddwit]

Why give 8 years of security to a guy who still needs to put in a lot of work to become a 2nd liner?

I’m a big fan of locking young guys up quickly and long-term - I loved the Klingberg deal the day it was signed - but Kotkaniemi hasn’t carved out a role for himself such that if he doesn’t progress much more he still ends up fulfilling a team need, a la Jarnkrok. A deal this long shouldn’t involve this much projection about a player’s role and value.

 

[Paranoid Android]

Makes sense. Long term contract is probably Carolina's best hope to get his AAV down. Risky, but they must see something in him.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Makes sense. Long term contract is probably Carolina's best hope to get his AAV down. Risky, but they must see something in him.

I'm not sure KK and his agent play nice that way. I think they can easily force their way to UFA in arbitration RFA years now that the $6.1M threshold was established. How much lower will an arbitrator go? $4M? $4M seems to be the base IMO and I don't see $5M on a 8 year term working. Not when KK can earn $4M all the way to UFA and enter UFA right when the cap significantly rises.

Canes have very little leverage here. They gave that leverage to KK and his agent with the 1 year offer sheet.

 

[Not The One]

He's getting the same reduced mins treatment that both Svechnikov and Necas got the last few years in their rookie years. The Canes are treating KK as a rookie to the system, and are allowing him to find his place. We're also kind of stuck a bit with positioning him in the lineup because he's much better as a C, but he's not going to play 2C over Trocheck, Staal is anchored to 3C, and Stepan is probably best suited for the role needed at 4C. With that being said, KK has shined with every opportunity he's had to have an increased role on the team, and we're very likely looking at him to be the Trocheck replacement next year, allowing him to slot back into his natural C position, allowing our top 6 to look like the following:
Svech-Aho-Turbo
Jarvis-KK-Necas

Not my team, but good luck with that.

NHL Stats

So they are going to "grooming" KK to replace a guy who's played 100 minutes of PK this year with another one who they played... 26 seconds on the PK?

NHL Stats

They are also preparing KK to take over from VT and his 894 faceoffs (most on the Canes) taken by having him take 264 faceoffs (fifth on their team)?

If he's not getting that ice time right now because he's not as good as Trocheck why would it be a good idea to hand him all of that next year to same a mil or two...

 

[tarheelhockey]

Why give 8 years of security to a guy who still needs to put in a lot of work to become a 2nd liner?

I’m a big fan of locking young guys up quickly and long-term - I loved the Klingberg deal the day it was signed - but Kotkaniemi hasn’t carved out a role for himself such that if he doesn’t progress much more he still ends up fulfilling a team need, a la Jarnkrok. A deal this long shouldn’t involve this much projection about a player’s role and value.

The easy answer is that the 8 year deal would be at a low number, which would end up being manageable if he stagnates and a steal if he blows up.

Point of comparison: Jaccob Slavin is halfway through a 7-year deal that will pay him $5.3M through 2025. A deal he signed when he was 22, the same age Kotkaniemi will be this summer.

If he holds out for a larger salary, then it's very unlikely they will agree to give him 8 years.

 

[expy]

Term over annual salary. It's what would balance out the cost of acquisition through the offer sheet

 

[didimentionlarseller]

This is very simple stuff. KK was a bad draft pick, full stop, that is what frustrates Habs fans the most.

I agree but still kind of surprised he didnt break out this season would have been a nice embarrassment to Bergevin

even with an olympic break Kotka seems to have trouble keeping pace

 

[Moosetache]

Canes flat-out won the offer sheet in terms of value. IMO out of all of the questionable Bergevin moves, not matching the KK RFA contract was by far the worst of the bunch. A late 1st and a 3rd is laughably low asset value for a 21 year old center drafted #3 overall who was already in the NHL.

The issue with this is if KK didnt want to be there, and wasnt interested in a long term deal there and was going to hold them to that QO number this summer he was really in a no win situation.

 

[japhi]

He's getting the same reduced mins treatment that both Svechnikov and Necas got the last few years in their rookie years. The Canes are treating KK as a rookie to the system, and are allowing him to find his place. We're also kind of stuck a bit with positioning him in the lineup because he's much better as a C, but he's not going to play 2C over Trocheck, Staal is anchored to 3C, and Stepan is probably best suited for the role needed at 4C. With that being said, KK has shined with every opportunity he's had to have an increased role on the team, and we're very likely looking at him to be the Trocheck replacement next year, allowing him to slot back into his natural C position, allowing our top 6 to look like the following:
Svech-Aho-Turbo
Jarvis-KK-Necas

With respect, if KK doesn’t improve dramatically he isn’t playing in your top 6. His skating isn’t where it needs to be. There is no evidence he can match up against another teams top 6.

Or the team is taking a big step back, which I doubt.

I just don’t see him going from 11 min average as low as 6 mins to playing 15-17 carrying a second line. I think thats wishful thinking.

 

[japhi]

The issue with this is if KK didnt want to be there, and wasnt interested in a long term deal there and was going to hold them to that QO number this summer he was really in a no win situation.

I agree, they would have paid the 6mm no problem but that contract is poison, which is why the Canes offered it. He would have walked from
Montreal , which is strange, they gave him his good sheltered minutes.

But that deal sucks for the controlling team, which is why the idea that KK had a handshake deal for Jan 1 was always to naive.

 

[didimentionlarseller]

Canes flat-out won the offer sheet in terms of value. IMO out of all of the questionable Bergevin moves, not matching the KK RFA contract was by far the worst of the bunch. A late 1st and a 3rd is laughably low asset value for a 21 year old center drafted #3 overall who was already in the NHL.

its not laughably low asset value if that player shouldn't have been drafted third overall - frankly kotka isn't significant enough as a player to be the most questionable of Bergevins moves imo

a much worse Bergevin move from the same period was not re-signing Danault and letting him walk for nothing - one of the best defensive centres in the league - I won't even bring up trading Eller away for picks widely seen as one of the worst trades in league history

 

[TropicOfNoReturn]

I would sign him to my team for

8yrs @ 2.5M

Or

2yrs @ 4M

I don't think the player will like either of those offers.

But that's his worth, currently.