That's a bingo. When Koko was in our defacto top 6 when half the team seemingly had Covid he really broke out when he had the chance to play with better linemates. I mean yeah, right now he's not putting up numbers... he's also typically playing between Lorentz and Martinook. When that changes to between Necas (despite his own slump) and Jarvis/Nino and his ice time doubles that changes the equation quite a bit.
Honestly there's a chance that this could work out nicely. There's also a chance it could turn out to be Victor Rask 2.0 right down to the skating issues, it's a gamble whichever way this goes.
It could bomb, but Kotkaniemi can be bought out at 1/3 price anytime through 2025, so there's time to still assess him with a lower risk even with a long-term deal. I think a shorter-term deal like discussed earlier is much more likely (4-5M, 3 years) which would walk Kotkaniemi up to UFA.
I'd bet this is a case of Kotkaniemi & his agent wanting to stay close to the QO, and Carolina saying they will only go close to that on a long-term deal.
I'm not worried about "sunk cost" issues with Carolina. They let Hamilton walk rather than pay him $9M AAV. They also let Ferland walk rather than try to retain value from the trade, which turns out to be the right decision.
And if the argument is they should have saved this 1st for a rental rather than use the 1st on Kotkaniemi: Kotkaniemi is the rental they chose, only for a full year with team option for further years. Carolina has shown a preference to trading for players with multiple years or options left (Hamilton, Trocheck, Skjei) vs strict rentals (only Vatanen due to 19-20 injury issues and Hakanpaa that I recall.)
Dealing a 1st for a playoff rental isn't something I would have expected from Carolina anyway; it doesn't fit into their valuation of a 1st round pick.