Seravalli: Canes discussing long term deal with Kotkaniemi, Canes want 8 years

[Stubu]

He's getting the same reduced mins treatment that both Svechnikov and Necas got the last few years in their rookie years. The Canes are treating KK as a rookie to the system, and are allowing him to find his place. We're also kind of stuck a bit with positioning him in the lineup because he's much better as a C, but he's not going to play 2C over Trocheck, Staal is anchored to 3C, and Stepan is probably best suited for the role needed at 4C. With that being said, KK has shined with every opportunity he's had to have an increased role on the team, and we're very likely looking at him to be the Trocheck replacement next year, allowing him to slot back into his natural C position, allowing our top 6 to look like the following:
Svech-Aho-Turbo
Jarvis-KK-Necas

I agree but why are you abbreviating Koko Miami "KK"?

[I clipped some stuff where I disagree but that's all been sort of beaten to near death already in the previous Koko Miami threads]

I agree, they would have paid the 6mm no problem but that contract is poison, which is why the Canes offered it

You mean Bergevin would actually have offered $6m for some reasonable term for Kotkaniemi's next contract? I'm not sure that was how people we're seeing it, I mean before the OS. "No problem" might be a bit charitable.

I assume by poison you mean the OS specific stuff (including the potential UFA outcome)? I'd argue the $6m cap hit was exactly the poison from the Habs viewpoint. (I mean, there isn't really anything else in the contract itself. Shortest possible term, no clauses.)

He would have walked from Montreal

But RFAs don't just walk.

You're sort of conflating the pre OS and post OS situations (and at that the last off-season and the next off-season) here and that makes for messy arguments...

the idea that KK had a handshake deal for Jan 1 was always to naive.

Agreed. I for one genuinely expected that... feels a bit silly now, admitted.

Good to keep in mind that whether Canes want 8 years or not, and whether the parties are actually in serious talks about the extension or not, this thread is essentially

 

[Ola]

I think people would be surprised about what JK would get this summer as a UFA. Got no stakes in this topic, but would be interesting to see him hit the UFA market just to get a reference point for young UFAs with upside.

Many seem to not really differ between the situation where you sign a young RFA, that you own the rights to, to a long term contract, from the situation JK is in if CAR doesn't give him a QO. By giving JK a contract after he has become a UFA you effectively not only "pay" for the young player you sign, you also pay for the right to use the player during his entire prime.

What will JK be worth? Honestly, I don't think there is that much risk that JK won't be a 6m player over the coming 8 years. The cap should go up a lot. I could easily see him being like a:
1-2Y 4m player
3Y 5m player
4Y 6m
5-8Y 7m player

In this scenario, JK is overpaid by no more than "1m", which means that you basically pay 1m to just get his rights. What if he never becomes more than a "5m player"? That means that the cost for him instead is 10m. I.e. you in total pay someone 48m for 8 years and only get "38m worth". What is the cost for 10m of cap space over 8 years? Probably a 1st round pick, right? He can err on both sides, underperform or overperform.

How would a NHL GM value him? My point is just, I think its easy to compare his worth on the open market to that of a RFA resigning with his own club, since there is no reference point. I wouldn't at all be surprised if JK got 6m per over 8 years as a UFA. I would be surprised if he didnt. Not because I think he is "worth" that for his play on the ice, but because his (a) rights + (b) play on the ice + (c) potential - (d) risk of underperforming = is worth it.

 

[llamateizer]

People tend to forget the Buy Out for younger players (under 25 or 26). which is 1/3 of his contract.

If he's bad after 2-3 years, you buy him out at almost low penalty.
If he's good, Canes have an elite low cap player

 

[sheriff bart]

Canes will go for 8 to get some UFA time at a lower number for bargaining. JK's agent will shoot for 5. Watch it end up as 5 years at a lower number

 

[japhi]

[I clipped some stuff where I disagree but that's all been sort of beaten to near death already in the previous Koko Miami threads]


You mean Bergevin would actually have offered $6m for some reasonable term for Kotkaniemi's next contract? I'm not sure that was how people we're seeing it, I mean before the OS. "No problem" might be a bit charitable.

I assume by poison you mean the OS specific stuff (including the potential UFA outcome)? I'd argue the $6m cap hit was exactly the poison from the Habs viewpoint. (I mean, there isn't really anything else in the contract itself. Shortest possible term, no clauses.)


But RFAs don't just walk.

You're sort of conflating the pre OS and post OS situations (and at that the last off-season and the next off-season) here and that makes for messy arguments...


Agreed. I for one genuinely expected that... feels a bit silly now, admitted.

Not saying the Habs would have offered him 6mm on term, rather the QO @ another 6 or FA is the issue with the agreement. The player by all accounts wasn’t happy, you don’t give up RFA rights to a guy that would be unlikely to sign for his true value before the next season. This is a player that based on performance should be getting a bridge deal at 4mm or less. But why would he take that when he has 6mm guaranteed, or the potential for FA.

The terms of the deal are shit, the player way too much control too early in his career. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[Svechhammer]

I agree but why are you abbreviating Koko Miami "KK"?

 

[AvsCOL]

8 years is ludicrous. Each time the CBA is being negotiated the owners ask for max terms to be reduced because they keep burying themselves in long term deals to get a cheaper rate. This is exactly that scenario.

 

[Hire Sather]

Canes refusing to just take the L

 

[Michoulicious]

What is amazing with that is that, even as an UFA, I don't see anyone wanting to sign that kind of player to an 8 years deal.

It is not the kind of player you give an 8 years deal.

Reminds me of Tanev 6 y x 3.5 millions with a modified NTC.

 

[Riptide]

Why give 8 years of security to a guy who still needs to put in a lot of work to become a 2nd liner?

I'd guess because of the OS cost to get him. Plus with what it would cost to qualify him this summer, they need to come to a long term deal in order to keep KK around - maybe not 8 years long, but long enough to get KK to take it. I mean if I was KK, and there was a chance to get a long term deal done, I wouldn't settle for anything less.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I really don't see why people are saying this isn't a guy to sign for 8 years at a reasonably low number. He's 21 years old and is obviously going to be a top-9 if not top-6 player for a long time. If you can get that locked in under $5M, you're in a position to put him on a team-specific development path for half his career. If he somehow fails to justify the annual salary (which would be quite a feat) then it's a tradeable contract.

Comparing it to Tanev doesn't make any sense. That was a 28-year-old who had only played one complete season in the NHL, being signed till age 34. We are talking about a 21-year-old in his third complete season, being signed till age 29. The contract would likely represent the entire meaningful portion of his career.

 

[Moosetache]

8 years is ludicrous. Each time the CBA is being negotiated the owners ask for max terms to be reduced because they keep burying themselves in long term deals to get a cheaper rate. This is exactly that scenario.

actually its not. the owners have hated giving out long deals to players in their late 20's and later. I think the owners are all in to giving out the long deal to the 21 year old bc it gives them cost certainty for the most part for the longer term. obv its easier to build a roster with players needing new contracts every now and then as opposed to needing to do 15 new contracts every year.

 

[Sugi21]

I’m sure KK doesn’t want to commit for 8 years at only $4.5 million I’m sure he’s banking on getting better and getting a more lucrative deal.

 

[Moosetache]

I’m sure KK doesn’t want to commit for 8 years at only $4.5 million I’m sure he’s banking on getting better and getting a more lucrative deal.

uh....how about 4.82 mil?

 

[StreetHawk]

its not laughably low asset value if that player shouldn't have been drafted third overall - frankly kotka isn't significant enough as a player to be the most questionable of Bergevins moves imo

a much worse Bergevin move from the same period was not re-signing Danault and letting him walk for nothing - one of the best defensive centres in the league - I won't even bring up trading Eller away for picks widely seen as one of the worst trades in league history

It’s one thing to let position be the deciding factor when 2 prospects are close. But that was a draft where there was legitimately no C that should have been rated higher than around 8-10 and I believe that was where Hayton was ranked.

That’s how teams test RFAs. Sign Tb em last cause he had no arbitration rights. Just the OS option which is rarely used.

Not a huge KK supporter. His role is one that if the Canes need cap space down the line he should be a guy that you move off of to get under the cap if needed.

But the Canes do have an out in that with him in just 22 in July that they have time to utilize the 1/3 buyout after a few years so if they need to move on it’s not a crippling dead cap charge. Like the cost of a spare forward.

 

[japhi]

Happy to eat some crow on this one.

Very well played by the Canes, I see very little downside. I think he is a lock for 15/15, will likely be 20/20 and could be a 25/25 guy. Will fill into that frame and have some size to throw around.

Terrible 3 OA pick but for a very late 1st / 3rd and 4.8 per this is a real nice maneuver.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Happy to eat some crow on this one.

Very well played by the Canes, I see very little downside. I think he is a lock for 15/15, will likely be 20/20 and could be a 25/25 guy. Will fill into that frame and have some size to throw around.

Terrible 3 OA pick but for a very late 1st / 3rd and 4.8 per this is a real nice maneuver.

He was NOT a terrible #3 pick. There was no consensus. Tkachuk's offensive upside was debatable as was Quinn's. Probably should have gone for the power forward type in Tkachuk but if he turned out to be a 30 pter (like Boucher might) then it was a blown pick. Hopefully Trochek is gone next season and he is the #2 c. Necas can play the wing and Jarvis probably can. That line would be a 1b to the 1a line. KK with ice time would be 50+. If Trochek stays your prediction is right though.

 

[japhi]

He was NOT a terrible #3 pick. There was no consensus. Tkachuk's offensive upside was debatable as was Quinn's. Probably should have gone for the power forward type in Tkachuk but if he turned out to be a 30 pter (like Boucher might) then it was a blown pick. Hopefully Trochek is gone next season and he is the #2 c. Necas can play the wing and Jarvis probably can. That line would be a 1b to the 1a line. KK with ice time would be 50+. If Trochek stays your prediction is right though.

On most lists he was 5+. Not sure anyone had him at 3, and multiple players trending better then him were drafted after him. Montreal drafted for positional need, and at 3OA you are not looking for a guy that can put up 50 points.

At 3, it was a bad pick. Not sure this is even controversial

And if he is your #2 next year your team took a significant step back. He skating needs to make significant improvements to run with top 6 studs that the Canes have. I don't see him going from no PK time and 11-12 a night, 18 mins with time on the PK. But, happy to be wrong.

And so no one gets butthurt, I think he is a solid young player and this move was fantastic for the Canes. But in the top three you are looking for more, and trust me as a Habs fan, we should have taken the consensus #3 Tkachuk.

 

[Chrispy]

On most lists he was 5+. Not sure anyone had him at 3, and multiple players trending better then him were drafted after him. Montreal drafted for positional need, and at 3OA you are not looking for a guy that can put up 50 points.

At 3, it was a bad pick. Not sure this is even controversial

And if he is your #2 next year your team took a significant step back. He skating needs to make significant improvements to run with top 6 studs that the Canes have. I don't see him going from no PK time and 11-12 a night, 18 mins with time on the PK. But, happy to be wrong.

And so no one gets butthurt, I think he is a solid young player and this move was fantastic for the Canes. But in the top three you are looking for more, and trust me as a Habs fan, we should have taken the consensus #3 Tkachuk.

Kotkaniemi would be 4th in line among centers for PK time. Staal is still the top defensive center, Aho would get PK time before Kotkaniemi, and even if Stepan isn't re-signed whoever comes in as a 4th line center will likely get PK duty as well, whether that's Drury making the team or someone else.

Kotkaniemi will be on an offense-focused second line and get PP2 time, probably as a net front. So similar special teams role to this year, only he would be playing 2nd line minutes instead of 4th at even strength.

Just because Kotkaniemi takes over Trocheck's spot on the second line does not mean he takes over every role Trocheck has in the lineup.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

uh....how about 4.82 mil?

I put bids on between 4M and 4.5M.

 

[Garbageyuk]

On most lists he was 5+. Not sure anyone had him at 3, and multiple players trending better then him were drafted after him. Montreal drafted for positional need, and at 3OA you are not looking for a guy that can put up 50 points.

At 3, it was a bad pick. Not sure this is even controversial

And if he is your #2 next year your team took a significant step back. He skating needs to make significant improvements to run with top 6 studs that the Canes have. I don't see him going from no PK time and 11-12 a night, 18 mins with time on the PK. But, happy to be wrong.

And so no one gets butthurt, I think he is a solid young player and this move was fantastic for the Canes. But in the top three you are looking for more, and trust me as a Habs fan, we should have taken the consensus #3 Tkachuk.

There was no consensus at 3; stop making things up. Kotkaniemi was in the mix to go 3rd along with Zadina, Tkachuk, Hughes, Bouchard, even guys like Dobson and Wahlstrom got some consideration. Kotkaniemi was seen as a raw project pick with high upside that was a few years away. Obviously he turned out to be the exact opposite of that in that he made the league right away, but has limited upside. But that’s how he was touted heading into the draft.

He has been a disappointment, but he wasn’t really a reach, unless you consider going 2 spots ahead of where most expected a reach.

 

[ottawa]

There was no consensus at 3; stop making things up. Kotkaniemi was in the mix to go 3rd along with Zadina, Tkachuk, Hughes, Bouchard, even guys like Dobson and Wahlstrom got some consideration. Kotkaniemi was seen as a raw project pick with high upside that was a few years away. Obviously he turned out to be the exact opposite of that in that he made the league right away, but has limited upside. But that’s how he was touted heading into the draft.

He has been a disappointment, but he wasn’t really a reach, unless you consider going 2 spots ahead of where most expected a reach.

How many lists was he top 5 in?

 

[Not The One]

Kotkaniemi would be 4th in line among centers for PK time. Staal is still the top defensive center, Aho would get PK time before Kotkaniemi, and even if Stepan isn't re-signed whoever comes in as a 4th line center will likely get PK duty as well, whether that's Drury making the team or someone else.

Kotkaniemi will be on an offense-focused second line and get PP2 time, probably as a net front. So similar special teams role to this year, only he would be playing 2nd line minutes instead of 4th at even strength.

Just because Kotkaniemi takes over Trocheck's spot on the second line does not mean he takes over every role Trocheck has in the lineup.

Even then aren't there still many questions about his offensive upside?

Right now he's got zero goals and one assist in his last ten games. Two goals (in consecutive games) in his last 21 games. Sure he's not getting much icetime but he doesn't seem to have made much of a case for himsealf to earn that additional icetime.

This is fairly consistent with how he was playing on the Habs the last few years, with more icetime than he has this season. He finished the playoffs with one goal in his last 12 games. He finished the regular season with zero goals and one assist in 19 games. He finished his second season with 1 goal and zero assists in 12 games before getting demoted to the AHL. He finished his rookie season with zero goals and two assists in 14 games.

I guess he's going to have to "earn" his spot by having other players ahead of in the lineup leaving the Canes. And this is a guy they are confortable paying 5M on average for 9 years (including this year)? With the offersheet and the rumored 8 year contract the Canes seem to be playing 4D-chess against themselves. The Habs picked up Rem Pitlick on waivers and he's got much better stats than KK. The leafs got Bunting as a free agent and he has performed very well. But at least KK has "upside"...

 

[Chrispy]

Even then aren't there still many questions about his offensive upside?

Right now he's got zero goals and one assist in his last ten games. Two goals (in consecutive games) in his last 21 games. Sure he's not getting much icetime but he doesn't seem to have made much of a case for himsealf to earn that additional icetime.

This is fairly consistent with how he was playing on the Habs the last few years, with more icetime than he has this season. He finished the playoffs with one goal in his last 12 games. He finished the regular season with zero goals and one assist in 19 games. He finished his second season with 1 goal and zero assists in 12 games before getting demoted to the AHL. He finished his rookie season with zero goals and two assists in 14 games.

I guess he's going to have to "earn" his spot by having other players ahead of in the lineup leaving the Canes. And this is a guy they are confortable paying 5M on average for 9 years (including this year)? With the offersheet and the rumored 8 year contract the Canes seem to be playing 4D-chess against themselves. The Habs picked up Rem Pitlick on waivers and he's got much better stats than KK. The leafs got Bunting as a free agent and he has performed very well. But at least KK has "upside"...

Again, if he flops, the result is a buyout which will cost $800K a year (1/3 of $4.8M, divided in half over 2x years) if it's enacted before 2026. So even with this 8 year commitment, there's a reasonable amount of time to continue to evaluate Kotkaniemi and determine if he will produce more with more playing time and better forwards, as he has done this season in Carolina as pointed out earlier, or if he does top out as a more offense-leaning 3C.

The reward for the commitment is getting to develop Kotkaniemi. Work on his skating in the off-season and see what can be done to improve him outside of Montreal.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

It's mindboggling to me that any team would want to commit 8 years to someone of that stature. I don't even care what the AAV ends up being, 8 year terms should be reserved for franchise level talents, not guys who at best might become 50-ish point players.