Canadian Soccer Part VI; O CANADA O BABY

[kanuck87]

Isn't the US path trickier than that 98% would indicate?

Probably assuming that even if USA is in 4th place, they should still be able to beat whoever comes out of Oceania, which is likely New Zealand, and they're currently ranked outside the top 100

 

[robertmac43]

More games! Yaay!

 

[Basement Cat]

Probably assuming that even if USA is in 4th place, they should still be able to beat whoever comes out of Oceania, which is likely New Zealand, and they're currently ranked outside the top 100

That is definitely a part of it, but I think the bigger one is that if they beat Panama at home, they're in. Regardless of any other results. And they will be probably 70-75% favorites to qualify just based on that. Then you factor in what you said along with the other potential results that can qualify them if they tie/lose the Panama game - you get an almost virtual lock.

 

[al secord]

I guess i'll be seeing you all in Costa Rica?

 

[robertmac43]

I guess i'll be seeing you all in Costa Rica?

I think I'm going to pass on Costa to be at the home game and then go to the Panama game

 

[Canada4Gold]

Goal Differential

Which can be overcome. I know 13 seems like it's almost impossible but once you consider the scenario where it matters involves 3 Panama wins(1 over us), and 2 losses and a tie from us you make up a bunch right away. The following, while a little bit much isn't completely outlandish, would put us tied with Panama in goal differential.

Costa Rica 2-0 Canada
Panama 4-0 Honduras
Jamaica 1-1 Canada
Panama 1-0 USA
Panama 4-1 Canada

Obviously, this is counting making the qualifier playoff because otherwise, the model is very broken.

I think it's including the making and winning the qualifier, which any Concacaf team would be favored in. 2500 really isn't enough simulations for as improbable a situation that is required. The right situation could easily be missed with as few simulations as that.

The only scenario that doesn't involve losing goal differential is Panama winning out, Canada losing to Jamaica, and Costa Rica, USA beating Mexico and Costa Rica, and Mexico beating Honduras and El Salvador and then Canada losing the playoff against Oceania. If we assumed that every result was equally as likely, 33% win, 33% draw, 33% loss, and the playoff was 50/50 then that scenario would be 1 in 39366. You'd need way more than 2500 simulations to find that case. Given the actual scenario required would have to involve a bunch of unlikely results(All 3 of our losses, Panama beating USA on the road, USA beating Mexico on the road, and us losing to the Oceania team) the odds are probably even crazier than that. You might need to run 100k simulations to find it.

 

[al secord]

I think I'm going to pass on Costa to be at the home game and then go to the Panama game

I'm taking my vacation in Jaco and coming back for the home game. Skipping Panama. Unless Panama becomes a horrible must win/draw game, then i may make a snap decision.

I need to consult the V's about their group heading down. I am a little nervous about being in San Jose in the evening.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

This team is something special. Davies and David are world class players with amazing potential. Awesome vets like Hutchinson and Borjan, and great depth with Eustaquio, Buchanan and a dangerous sniper in Larin.

They have potential to do some damage to on the world stage.

 

[Snippit]

Is it correct that a Mexico win over the USA clinches it for us?

Cause then even if you assume USA beats Costa Rica, Panama beats Canada, Panama beats Honduras, and Canada goes 0-3, you'd have..

Canada - 25
USA - 24 (13 GP)
Panama - 23 (13 GP)

And then obviously the USA vs Panama match, both can't win, so it should be locked up. And in this scenario Costa Rica has lost a game so they can't catch up.

 

[theaub]

Is it correct that a Mexico win over the USA clinches it for us?

Cause then even if you assume USA beats Costa Rica, Panama beats Canada, Panama beats Honduras, and Canada goes 0-3, you'd have..

Canada - 25
USA - 24 (13 GP)
Panama - 23 (13 GP)

And then obviously the USA vs Panama match, both can't win, so it should be locked up. And in this scenario Costa Rica has lost a game so they can't catch up.

There's still a very unlikely scenario wherein Mexico, Panama and Costa Rica finish 1-2-3 but yes that would pretty much seal it.

 

[saskriders]

Is it correct that a Mexico win over the USA clinches it for us?

Cause then even if you assume USA beats Costa Rica, Panama beats Canada, Panama beats Honduras, and Canada goes 0-3, you'd have..

Canada - 25
USA - 24 (13 GP)
Panama - 23 (13 GP)

And then obviously the USA vs Panama match, both can't win, so it should be locked up. And in this scenario Costa Rica has lost a game so they can't catch up.

Mexico win against the US, Canada lose out, Panama/CR wins against others would make

Canada 25
Mexico 24
USA 21
Panama 23
CR 22

Mexico could pass us with a win against Honduras or El Salvador

Panama and CR could both pass with wins against the US (placing us 4th)

USA would need results against both Panama and CR to pass so that means that if USA did qualify Canada would qualify.

So Mexico beating the US means the only way Canada doesn't directly qualify is if Panama and CR win all their remaining games, Canada loses against Jamaica, and Mexico gets at least 2 points from their other two games.

 

[joepeps]

There's still a very unlikely scenario wherein Mexico, Panama and Costa Rica finish 1-2-3 but yes that would pretty much seal it.

CR can not finish above Canada

 

[LandfiII]

Man we suck all of a sudden with our 0/9 final window.

 

[Canada4Gold]

CR can not finish above Canada

They can tie and in theory win goal differential though that'd be an unlikely route, it is still possible

 

[Canada4Gold]

Looking at the next matchday in March the scenarios to clinch should be

1) Canada win
2) Canada Tie + Panama Loss/Tie
3) Canada Tie + USA Loss/Tie
4) Panama Loss/Tie + USA Loss

1) Win clinches over Panama and Costa Rica

2) Tie clinches over Costa Rica, Panama Loss/Tie clinches over Panama

3) Tie Clinches over Costa Rica, Panama would have to win out to equal us which includes beating USA leaving USA 2 games to get 5 points so Loss/Tie would mean either them or Panama couldn't catch us.

4) Panama Loss/Tie clinches over Panama. Costa Rica would have to win out to equal us which includes beating USA leaving USA 4 back with 2 games so USA Loss means either them or Costa Rica couldn't catch us

 

[PanniniClaus]

I think John Herdman goes pedal to the medal to try and win the group and possibly sneak into Pot 3.

 

[LandfiII]

I think John Herdman goes pedal to the medal to try and win the group and possibly sneak into Pot 3.

As he should. I don’t care about the feelings of the club teams. If they respect their players they’ll respect how much it means to them to do everything they can for their national teams.

 

[EchoesoftheEighties]

Posted this in another thread but it's relevant here for anyone curious about getting into pot 3.

Here are all the countries ahead of Canada who are at risk/guaranteed to miss with the games remaining, based on the current official rankings released that have us at #40:

UEFA:

Playoffs:

Path A: 19. Wales, 25. Ukraine, 31. Austria, 38. Scotland
Path B: 18. Sweden, 27. Poland, 32 Czech Republic, 34. Russia
Path C: 6. Italy, 8. Portugal, 37. Turkey, North Macedonia

Already eliminated:
39. Hungary

Looks like 9 (I mean North Macedonia COULD make it 10 but I doubt they make it out of Path C) UEFA teams ahead of us in the rankings will fail to qualify

CONMEBOL:

Two of 16. Colombia, 17. Uruguay, 22. Peru, 24 Chile are guaranteed to miss. Looking like 2 teams from CONMEBOL ahead of us in the rankings will fail to qualify, possibly 3 depending on intercontinental playoff but we'll assume 2 will miss.

CAF:

Depends on who wins/loses obviously but the teams here at risk are:

20. Senegal v Egypt
28. Morocco v DR Congo
29. Algeria v Cameroon
30. Tunisa v Mali
36. Nigeria v Ghana

I'm going to assume the higher seeds win their matchups. There are possibilities for upsets (AFCON Final is also Senegal v Egypt so that matchup is spicy especially as a Liverpool fan) but let's say 0 teams ahead of us in CAF.

AFC:

35. Australia is at risk here but they will likely be in the playoffs and will be playing CONMEBOL 5th place. They are the team I am assuming will miss and not the 5th place CONMEBOL which gives us 1 from AFC. Either way, the loser of the intercontinental game here will guarantee a team ahead in the rankings will drop out.

So in total we're looking at give or take 12 teams ahead of us in the rankings (as of today based on official rankings) that are guaranteed to miss. We are assured to be pot 3 if our ranking is anywhere above the 35 or 36 range I would think. I would say it's a very real possibility, probably even likely we end up in pot 3 unless I'm missing something. It mainly comes down to UEFA teams being highly ranked and quite a few of them missing. Still, there's lots of footy left to be played so all of this is speculation. Rankings are definitely going to change with AFCON still going on, the rest of the qualifiers, international friendlies etc. teams will drop and rise. For a quick comparison, the 2018 tournament had Denmark at 19 up to Iran at 34 for pot 3 and pot 4 began with Serbia at 38 to Saudi at 63.

An example draw as of today assuming the top seeds win:

Pot1: Qatar, Belgium, Brazil, France, England, Argentina, Spain, Italy
Pot 2: Denmark, Netherlands, USA, Germany, Switzerland, Mexico, Croatia, Uruguay
Pot 3: Wales, Sweden, Senegal, Iran, Peru, Serbia, Japan, Morocco
Pot 4: Algeria, Tunisia, Korea, Nigeria, Canada, Ecuador, Panama, Saudi

We'd have to leapfrog 5 teams ahead of us and with Algeria having a not so great AFCON as well as Morocco and Tunisia losing to much lower ranked teams, they'll likely drop. That will leave us right on the cusp of pot 3 if we pass them and do well enough in our own matches.

 

[Javaman]

Posted this in another thread but it's relevant here for anyone curious about getting into pot 3.

Here are all the countries ahead of Canada who are at risk/guaranteed to miss with the games remaining, based on the current official rankings released that have us at #40:

UEFA:

Playoffs:

Path A: 19. Wales, 25. Ukraine, 31. Austria, 38. Scotland
Path B: 18. Sweden, 27. Poland, 32 Czech Republic, 34. Russia
Path C: 6. Italy, 8. Portugal, 37. Turkey, North Macedonia

Already eliminated:
39. Hungary

Looks like 9 (I mean North Macedonia COULD make it 10 but I doubt they make it out of Path C) UEFA teams ahead of us in the rankings will fail to qualify

CONMEBOL:

Two of 16. Colombia, 17. Uruguay, 22. Peru, 24 Chile are guaranteed to miss. Looking like 2 teams from CONMEBOL ahead of us in the rankings will fail to qualify, possibly 3 depending on intercontinental playoff but we'll assume 2 will miss.

CAF:

Depends on who wins/loses obviously but the teams here at risk are:

20. Senegal v Egypt
28. Morocco v DR Congo
29. Algeria v Cameroon
30. Tunisa v Mali
36. Nigeria v Ghana

I'm going to assume the higher seeds win their matchups. There are possibilities for upsets (AFCON Final is also Senegal v Egypt so that matchup is spicy especially as a Liverpool fan) but let's say 0 teams ahead of us in CAF.

AFC:

35. Australia is at risk here but they will likely be in the playoffs and will be playing CONMEBOL 5th place. They are the team I am assuming will miss and not the 5th place CONMEBOL which gives us 1 from AFC. Either way, the loser of the intercontinental game here will guarantee a team ahead in the rankings will drop out.

So in total we're looking at give or take 12 teams ahead of us in the rankings (as of today based on official rankings) that are guaranteed to miss. We are assured to be pot 3 if our ranking is anywhere above the 35 or 36 range I would think. I would say it's a very real possibility, probably even likely we end up in pot 3 unless I'm missing something. It mainly comes down to UEFA teams being highly ranked and quite a few of them missing. Still, there's lots of footy left to be played so all of this is speculation. Rankings are definitely going to change with AFCON still going on, the rest of the qualifiers, international friendlies etc. teams will drop and rise. For a quick comparison, the 2018 tournament had Denmark at 19 up to Iran at 34 for pot 3 and pot 4 began with Serbia at 38 to Saudi at 63.

An example draw as of today assuming the top seeds win:

Pot1: Qatar, Belgium, Brazil, France, England, Argentina, Spain, Italy
Pot 2: Denmark, Netherlands, USA, Germany, Switzerland, Mexico, Croatia, Uruguay
Pot 3: Wales, Sweden, Senegal, Iran, Peru, Serbia, Japan, Morocco
Pot 4: Algeria, Tunisia, Korea, Nigeria, Canada, Ecuador, Panama, Saudi

We'd have to leapfrog 5 teams ahead of us and with Algeria having a not so great AFCON as well as Morocco and Tunisia losing to much lower ranked teams, they'll likely drop. That will leave us right on the cusp of pot 3 if we pass them and do well enough in our own matches.

The thing about this whole "pots" system is that the USA and Mexico will almost certainly be in pot 2 while Canada can, at best, be in pot 3. This despite the fact that Canada has handled the USA and Mexico rather nicely in this qualifying round. I'm not familiar enough with FIFA's ranking system or how it deals with "duration of performance," but it just seems odd to me that both the USA and Mexico will get preferable seeding despite Canada being the better side heading into WC22.

Best case scenario for Canada is to be in pot 3, and then draw into the same pool as Qatar along with a team from pot 4. Now, I'm assuming that Qatar and another team from pot 1 can be in the same pool.

Either way, it's nice to see the expectations for the CMNT being raised.

 

[Tuggy]

Looking at the final window for the US and Panama. US sitting at 21 points and Panama sitting at 17.

First set of games the US goes to Mexico and Panama is at home to Honduras. Second set of games has US at home to Panama. It's very possible that for that game the US could be at 21-22 points and Panama at 20. That would make that a very tasty matchup and entertaining to watch from the top

 

[Tuggy]

I'm seeing some Twitter rumor chatter that Davies could be out until at least April recovering.

Assuming it's true...not the greatest news but luckily we are in a great position. Book our spot and let him to get back to 100% and be ready for the show in November.

 

[theaub]

Looking at the final window for the US and Panama. US sitting at 21 points and Panama sitting at 17.

First set of games the US goes to Mexico and Panama is at home to Honduras. Second set of games has US at home to Panama. It's very possible that for that game the US could be at 21-22 points and Panama at 20. That would make that a very tasty matchup and entertaining to watch from the top

As much as I obviously want Canada to take care of business in Costa Rica and qualify, I will take the smallest amount of solace that a Costa Rica win/US loss in MD12 likely means the US will need to get a result in Costa Rica to qualify directly - not to mention the massive Panama match in MD13.

I'm seeing some Twitter rumor chatter that Davies could be out until at least April recovering.

Assuming it's true...not the greatest news but luckily we are in a great position. Book our spot and let him to get back to 100% and be ready for the show in November.

Poorly translated news. Nagelsmann said they hadn't tested Davies yet since January but if the issues are still there he could be out longer than March and people have run with it for some reason. There's no update at this point.

 

[al secord]

Cardiologists recommend a resting period of 3 to 6 months. I'm not sure if it is different for a super human athlete.

 

[robertmac43]

Honestly give Davies the rest. Bayern will be fine and we won't need him in the March window.

 

[robertmac43]

I'm taking my vacation in Jaco and coming back for the home game. Skipping Panama. Unless Panama becomes a horrible must win/draw game, then i may make a snap decision.

I need to consult the V's about their group heading down. I am a little nervous about being in San Jose in the evening.

Ticket details are coming out soon. They are just monitoring the COVID situation at the moment. Should be a fun trip regardless, nice to get some sun as well!