Canadian Soccer Part VI; O CANADA O BABY

[robertmac43]

Some club soccer news;

 

[PanniniClaus]

I'm seeing some Twitter rumor chatter that Davies could be out until at least April recovering.

Assuming it's true...not the greatest news but luckily we are in a great position. Book our spot and let him to get back to 100% and be ready for the show in November.

Yes - November is the key... take the time he needs.

 

[Dust]

Posted this in another thread but it's relevant here for anyone curious about getting into pot 3.

Here are all the countries ahead of Canada who are at risk/guaranteed to miss with the games remaining, based on the current official rankings released that have us at #40:

UEFA:

Playoffs:

Path A: 19. Wales, 25. Ukraine, 31. Austria, 38. Scotland
Path B: 18. Sweden, 27. Poland, 32 Czech Republic, 34. Russia
Path C: 6. Italy, 8. Portugal, 37. Turkey, North Macedonia

Already eliminated:
39. Hungary

Looks like 9 (I mean North Macedonia COULD make it 10 but I doubt they make it out of Path C) UEFA teams ahead of us in the rankings will fail to qualify

CONMEBOL:

Two of 16. Colombia, 17. Uruguay, 22. Peru, 24 Chile are guaranteed to miss. Looking like 2 teams from CONMEBOL ahead of us in the rankings will fail to qualify, possibly 3 depending on intercontinental playoff but we'll assume 2 will miss.

CAF:

Depends on who wins/loses obviously but the teams here at risk are:

20. Senegal v Egypt
28. Morocco v DR Congo
29. Algeria v Cameroon
30. Tunisa v Mali
36. Nigeria v Ghana

I'm going to assume the higher seeds win their matchups. There are possibilities for upsets (AFCON Final is also Senegal v Egypt so that matchup is spicy especially as a Liverpool fan) but let's say 0 teams ahead of us in CAF.

AFC:

35. Australia is at risk here but they will likely be in the playoffs and will be playing CONMEBOL 5th place. They are the team I am assuming will miss and not the 5th place CONMEBOL which gives us 1 from AFC. Either way, the loser of the intercontinental game here will guarantee a team ahead in the rankings will drop out.

So in total we're looking at give or take 12 teams ahead of us in the rankings (as of today based on official rankings) that are guaranteed to miss. We are assured to be pot 3 if our ranking is anywhere above the 35 or 36 range I would think. I would say it's a very real possibility, probably even likely we end up in pot 3 unless I'm missing something. It mainly comes down to UEFA teams being highly ranked and quite a few of them missing. Still, there's lots of footy left to be played so all of this is speculation. Rankings are definitely going to change with AFCON still going on, the rest of the qualifiers, international friendlies etc. teams will drop and rise. For a quick comparison, the 2018 tournament had Denmark at 19 up to Iran at 34 for pot 3 and pot 4 began with Serbia at 38 to Saudi at 63.

An example draw as of today assuming the top seeds win:

Pot1: Qatar, Belgium, Brazil, France, England, Argentina, Spain, Italy
Pot 2: Denmark, Netherlands, USA, Germany, Switzerland, Mexico, Croatia, Uruguay
Pot 3: Wales, Sweden, Senegal, Iran, Peru, Serbia, Japan, Morocco
Pot 4: Algeria, Tunisia, Korea, Nigeria, Canada, Ecuador, Panama, Saudi

We'd have to leapfrog 5 teams ahead of us and with Algeria having a not so great AFCON as well as Morocco and Tunisia losing to much lower ranked teams, they'll likely drop. That will leave us right on the cusp of pot 3 if we pass them and do well enough in our own matches.

When the new rankings come out in early March, Canada will be ranked around 34, and should be ahead of Tunisia, Australia, Cameroon, Algeria if the standings remain as they currently are. I don't know if those teams play more games before that window, but Canada doesn't and should be at 1497 points currently. They're on the verge of passing some pretty good teams in the rankings.

 

[EchoesoftheEighties]

When the new rankings come out in early March, Canada will be ranked around 34, and should be ahead of Tunisia, Australia, Cameroon, Algeria if the standings remain as they currently are. I don't know if those teams play more games before that window, but Canada doesn't and should be at 1497 points currently. They're on the verge of passing some pretty good teams in the rankings.

They'll be on the cusp of pot 3 then. It mainly comes down to that final window and the international playoffs. Looking good for the boys!

 

[TJ21]

Herdman has absolutely earned my trust and I have full confidence he's going to have this team gunning for another perfect window. It's going to be difficult, but the team plays with a chip on their shoulder and Herdman seems to realise that, and he's getting the most out of them. Regardless of scenarios and possibilities, they'll be geared up and ready to win at CR to clinch that spot. Then we sit back and watch the real chaos unfold for everybody else

 

[Dust]

I think even a draw at Costa Rica would be a great result, that's a very difficult place to play.

 

[al secord]

They'll be on the cusp of pot 3 then. It mainly comes down to that final window and the international playoffs. Looking good for the boys!

I just know FIFA has a hand shake agreement with Qatar to put us in their group. So we should be doing everything in our power to get into pot 3.

 

[al secord]

I think even a draw at Costa Rica would be a great result, that's a very difficult place to play.

This team has succeeded in every hell hole in central america and should have won at Azteca. I believe the pitch in San Jose is quite well kept, so it should be to our advantage. This is a different team with a different mind set. I do believe they are going to Costa Rica for 3 points.

 

[EchoesoftheEighties]

I just know FIFA has a hand shake agreement with Qatar to put us in their group. So we should be doing everything in our power to get into pot 3.

Being in Qatars group is suuuuuch an advantage. We could have a legit shot at the R16 if that's the case so here's hoping.

 

[al secord]

Being in Qatars group is suuuuuch an advantage. We could have a legit shot at the R16 if that's the case so here's hoping.

Making the first world cup of my lifetime (too young to remember 86) and playing Qatar and a team from pot 4, would be too much for me to take.

Let's qualify first lol.

 

[Dust]

This team has succeeded in every hell hole in central america and should have won at Azteca. I believe the pitch in San Jose is quite well kept, so it should be to our advantage. This is a different team with a different mind set. I do believe they are going to Costa Rica for 3 points.

I like the optimism but they haven't yet gone to Panama or Costa Rica yet, who are clearly the 2 best Central American teams. Costa Rica also beat the US at home. Canada was also fortunate to play Jamaica in Jamaica with no fans. They have the talent and mindset to do it, just can't get over confident.

 

[ahmedou]

 

[JAK]

I just know FIFA has a hand shake agreement with Qatar to put us in their group. So we should be doing everything in our power to get into pot 3.

It's gonna be USA in Qatar's pot so they can stir up World Cup 2026, because Americans have all the corporate sponsors.

 

[JianYang]

I was playing around with the current rankings to see potential groups for Qatar. Obviously that's still very subject to change, but it was a fun exercise seeing best and worst case scenarios for the USMNT. I think you guys have a chance at getting into Pot 3 which would be a huge benefit. We are all hoping to get into a group with Qatar as the pot 1 team (duh), but aside from that, I'd love to see Canada drawn into a group like this:

England
Uruguay
Canada
Saudi Arabia

I feel like a healthy Canada could finish above the current Uruguay in a group. Also seeing them go up against an England would be fun.

It would also be a sad reminder if they play England, when watching tomori on their side, when he was eligible for Canada, which also triggers memories of Owen Hargreaves for similar reasons.

 

[PanniniClaus]

It would also be a sad reminder if they play England, when watching tomori on their side, when he was eligible for Canada, which also triggers memories of Owen Hargreaves for similar reasons.

I was extremely unhappy when Hargreaves chose England although at least he was part of the 23 when he was in form and available.

I just don't see Tomori being part of the 23 that head to Qatar for England... He would be a large part of our team for the next ten years.

 

[JianYang]

Panama would have to make up 13 goals. That's extremely unlikely. It's not like Canada has a tough schedule either.

EDIT: I could see Panama picking up a lot of goals in the Honduras game.

Away to costa rica and Panama is a tough schedule considering what the stakes could be for those teams, on top of the usual tough circumstances that Central America presents.

I think the first match is in costa rica, and a look at the table shows that they are going to be desperate.

That home match to Jamaica is the best candidate in the window to be the "easy" one. They've been underachieving all tournament and no longer have anything to play for.

The final match is in Panama, and the stakes could be super high there depending on how things go, as they could either be trying to lock up their playoff spot, or to vault into direct qualification.

It is absolutely mind blowing though that Canada has won 3 away games in the octagonal. To put it in perspective, the Americans have only won 6 compeitive away matches in their concacaf history, and the Canadians are already halfway there in one round.

 

[JianYang]

I was extremely unhappy when Hargreaves chose England although at least he was part of the 23 when he was in form and available.

I just don't see Tomori being part of the 23 that head to Qatar for England... He would be a large part of our team for the next ten years.

We'll see what happens. England thought enough of him to get him cap tied last year, but is it still worth for a player to have that England profile on their resume if they would have such a difficult time to make their roster?

Or I suppose there is some foreign player rule, which may make things more difficult for tomori to re-enter the premier league if he didn't declare himself an English player?

 

[JianYang]

I like the optimism but they haven't yet gone to Panama or Costa Rica yet, who are clearly the 2 best Central American teams. Costa Rica also beat the US at home. Canada was also fortunate to play Jamaica in Jamaica with no fans. They have the talent and mindset to do it, just can't get over confident.

I don't think the US played costa rica away yet. US did lose to Panama on the road though, although they went with a heavy mls lineup for that one if I'm not mistaken... So not their best squad.

Regardless, it's never easy on the road..... Lots of evidence for that.

 

[al secord]

A healthy Hargreaves was one of England's best players. I doubt Tomori makes their squad for Qatar.

I never faulted Hargreaves for choosing England. I blame our federation and lack of talent evaluation. We cut him at 17 for being too short. Imagine the kid's embarrassment going back to Munich. Then Wales and then England come calling. Moot point anyway, his body would've fallen apart much faster on our turf .

 

[al secord]

I was extremely unhappy when Hargreaves chose England although at least he was part of the 23 when he was in form and available.

I just don't see Tomori being part of the 23 that head to Qatar for England... He would be a large part of our team for the next ten years.

If Tomori some how ends up in our 23 for Qatar , I need to start looking over my shoulder because I must've made a deal with the devil to be this lucky. We're a Tomori away from being complete.

Johnston.....Vitoria.....Tomori....

....I think I'm tearing up a bit

 

[JianYang]

If Tomori some how ends up in our 23 for Qatar , I need to start looking over my shoulder because I must've made a deal with the devil to be this lucky. We're a Tomori away from being complete.

Johnston.....Vitoria.....Tomori....

....I think I'm tearing up a bit

My understanding is that this chapter got closed for good when tomori got cap tied a few months ago with the Sr squad.

Even if we had tomori, I think we are still a world class midfielder away from being "complete" (and thats no disrespect to eustaquio who has also been very good for Canada)

 

[Pink Mist]

Yeah Tomori is capped tied to England now, we've lost him for good

 

[Cloned]

Yeah Tomori is capped tied to England now, we've lost him for good

There's technically still a hope for 2026. Players can file a change of country request if certain requirements are met, including not playing for your old country for a number of years.

 

[Pink Mist]

There's technically still a hope for 2026. Players can file a change of country request if certain requirements are met, including not playing for your old country for a number of years.

I thought that was only if you had your caps under a certain age (like age 21)?

I could be wrong though

 

[TJ21]

I believe him coming on for England recently officially cap tied him to England. Mentioned it before but it's not as much of a "loss" as there was never any real indication that he was even considering Canada. Would obviously have been a great add to the squad, but it's important to remember that even challenging for a spot on the England 23 going to Qatar is quite the pull. Its fun sometimes however to think what a Canadian team with even a couple of crossovers could do. Imagine this current team with Tomori and Flores, now that's a fun thought.