At least one of Costa Rica or Panama would have to go perfect for Canada to finish 4th. Costa Rica can not catch Canada if Canada gets any points so any Canada points plus any Panama draws or losses is a clinch.
And if Panama or Costa Rica go perfect, the US needs to win in Mexico to pass us.
The only scenario where 26 points does not directly qualify us:
- Canada draws Jamaica or Costa Rica, loses other two matches
- US wins in Mexico, Panama wins against Honduras in MD 12
- Mexico wins in Honduras, Panama wins in United States in MD 13
- US wins in Costa Rica, Mexico wins against El Salvador in MD 14
- Panama overturns a 13 goal GD during this time
That would put US/Mexico at 27, and Canada/Panama at 26.
The tl;dr of this whole thing is if the US doesn't win in Mexico it is basically impossible for us to miss out even if we lose all three matches.