Cam Talbot - Mod warning #251

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jniklast

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No he gave up 1/100 more goals.

First you got it and now you're coming up with another ridiculous math? 1/100 more goals? Where in that above calculation do you see a 100 goals?

It's 8 goals per 100 shots vs. 9 goals per 100 shots, so it's 12.5% more goals given up per x shots. That's math, whether you want to believe it or not.
 

ReggieDunlop68

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Only relative to the amount of shots is important.

If both goalies face 2,000 shots a year.
Goalie A with 92% saves 1840 shots
Goalie B with 91% saves 1820 shots

Goalie A saves 20 goals more.

20 out of 2,000 shots is 1%.

Fair enough. That's why they have shot against totals.

Last year, Carey Price had 1828 shots against with a 0.927 SV PCT., so he let in approx 133 goals.

Budaj had a 0.908 sv PCT. on 615 shots in sheltered minutes.

If he played as many minutes and had as many shots against, with the same Sv Pct. he would have let in 166 goals.

That's an increase of 25%, even worse than the inverse!

And it's very likely his sv PCT would drop as he played more games and the other teams keyed in on him.
 

jniklast

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If both goalies face 2,000 shots a year.
Goalie A with 92% saves 18,400
Goalie B with 91% saves 18,200

Goalie A saves 20 goals more.

20 out of 2,000 shots is 1%.

Yes, his SV% is 1% higher. But he still gave up 12.5% more goals than goalie A, since he gave up 180 goals while goalie A gave up only 160. So 20/160=12.5% increase in GA.
 

sbjnyc

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If both goalies face 2,000 shots a year.
Goalie A with 92% saves 1840 shots
Goalie B with 91% saves 1820 shots

Goalie A saves 20 goals more.

20 out of 2,000 shots is 1%.

This is what's important. I think so far this season the rangers faced about 1700 shots. Reducing the save% by 1% would result in an additional 17 goals. To date the goal differential is +40 so how many less points would you expect the rangers to have in the standings if their goal differential decreased from +40 to +23?

I understand projecting the standings based on goal differential is tricky but I think we'd all agree that the higher the GD, the better.
 

Cassano

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20 goals over a full season is quite significant, actually.

In baseball, players who average +9 win differential to a team over a full season in comparison to a minor-league call up is regarded as the best player in the world.
 
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haveandare

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I can't believe this conversation is going on now of all times.

We're seeing the same exact team play with a goalie thought to be lesser than the elite goalie he's replacing right now and it's not pretty.

Choose all the stats in the world you want to suggest that the difference isn't real. It is. We're seeing it right now.
 
Jan 8, 2012
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I don't know why you guys are explaining basic math to someone who clearly doesn't want to understand it.

If I firmly believe that 2+2=5, no one can say anything that will make me change my mind.
 

East Coast Bias

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I can't believe this conversation is going on now of all times.

We're seeing the same exact team play with a goalie thought to be lesser than the elite goalie he's replacing right now and it's not pretty.

Choose all the stats in the world you want to suggest that the difference isn't real. It is. We're seeing it right now.

This. Obviously sample sizes come into play a bit, but it's hard to argue the difference between Hank and league average is negligible if you've watched the last two months.
 

Glen Sathers Cigar

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Fair enough. That's why they have shot against totals.

Last year, Carey Price had 1828 shots against with a 0.927 SV PCT., so he let in approx 133 goals.

Budaj had a 0.908 sv PCT. on 615 shots in sheltered minutes.

If he played as many minutes and had as many shots against, with the same Sv Pct. he would have let in 166 goals.

That's an increase of 25%, even worse than the inverse!

And it's very likely his sv PCT would drop as he played more games and the other teams keyed in on him.

Your point about his SV% dropping with more GP and teams keying on him is conveniently ignored by these guys.

Goalie A playing 62 games and almost every important match up.

Goalie B playing 20 games with some easier matchups.

Their stats are not directly comparable simply due to the nature of being a backup compared to being a starter and having teams study you and you shouldering the bulk of the workload. Not to mention things that are specifically identifiable like the team playing better in front of the back up when he's in net or the back up playing easier teams.

Even if the stats favor the backup, you can't compare them directly to the starter. It's a flawed comparison. You can't extrapolate those stats and assume they'd remain constant. Playing once every 2 weeks is alot different than playing 6-9 times in that span, all season.

Not to mention the real world example we're seeing unfold in front of our eyes with Talbot. It's noticeable statistically and through the eye test, yet people sit here and want to make baseless arguments and flawed comparisons. It makes no sense.
 

nyr2k2

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Your point about his SV% dropping with more GP and teams keying on him is conveniently ignored by these guys.

Goalie A playing 62 games and almost every important match up.

Goalie B playing 20 games with some easier matchups.

Their stats are not directly comparable simply due to the nature of being a backup compared to being a starter and having teams study you and you shouldering the bulk of the workload. Not to mention things that are specifically identifiable like the team playing better in front of the back up when he's in net or the back up playing easier teams.

Even if the stats favor the backup, you can't compare them directly to the starter. It's a flawed comparison. You can't extrapolate those stats and assume they'd remain constant. Playing once every 2 weeks is alot different than playing 6-9 times in that span, all season.

Not to mention the real world example we're seeing unfold in front of our eyes with Talbot. It's noticeable statistically and through the eye test, yet people sit here and want to make baseless arguments and flawed comparisons. It makes no sense.

I've tried time and time again to highlight the physical and mental differences between playing as a starter and as a backup, but there are still like three people that just refuse to acknowledge it. You're right, it makes no sense.
 

NYRangers84

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I've tried time and time again to highlight the physical and mental differences between playing as a starter and as a backup, but there are still like three people that just refuse to acknowledge it. You're right, it makes no sense.

Backups come in cold. Starters have the advantage because they play more games and have more time to get into top form.

That's why Lundqvist sucks every year at the start.

Give Talbot a full season and see what he can do.
 

NYRangers84

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I don't know why you guys are explaining basic math to someone who clearly doesn't want to understand it.

If I firmly believe that 2+2=5, no one can say anything that will make me change my mind.

Ok Mr. Math wiz.

I get it but it's a stupid argument. He's 12.5% better because he stops one more shot out of 100. Ooooh big deal.

BTW, Talbot's still above Lundqvist in adjusted save % (and regular save %) so you can't even make that argument with these 2 goalies.

Only thing Lundqvist has over him is more games played.

Talbot is 7.6% better than Lundqvist. Oooooh but the sample sizeeeeee.
 
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mrmovies779

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Feb 5, 2013
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Ok Mr. Math wiz.

I get it but it's a stupid argument. He's 12.5% better because he stops one more shot out of 100. Ooooh big deal.

BTW, Talbot's still above Lundqvist in adjusted save % (and regular save %) so you can't even make that argument with these 2 goalies.

Only thing Lundqvist has over him is more games played.

Talbot is 7.6% better than Lundqvist. Oooooh but the sample sizeeeeee.

You are really making yourself look silly
 

Glen Sathers Cigar

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Backups come in cold. Starters have the advantage because they play more games and have more time to get into top form.

That's why Lundqvist sucks every year at the start.

Give Talbot a full season and see what he can do.

This is just utterly wrong. It does suck to be a back up and have to play sparingly and try and stay sharp, sure that is true.

But it's flat out wrong to think starters have it easier than back ups, implying that it's easier to be a starter than a back up. You're leaving out the part where the back up is playing games every 2-3 days and the toll that takes on you mentally and physically.

Just look at your "King Cam" and how he started to falter after 2 weeks of playing. You have tangible evidence that he can't handle the workload and you're actually implying "if he was a starter he'd be better than Lundqvist." You're insane.
 

surGeon

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How is it possible to fail math that hard?

Being a starter is probably a little bit more difficult than being a backup. Facing stronger teams, higher workload and so on, but that is not what we're seeing here. Talbot has looked quite shaken since taking over for Lundquist. Hopefully he can regain his confidence sooner rather than later. He's made some mistakes and let in some goals that he would not have last season. He is a much better goaltender than what he is currently displaying.
 

Doctyl

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Jan 25, 2011
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One guy gets a 100 on a test another guy gets a 95. They're both smart.

One goalie makes more than any other in history and has a .920 sv%. We could have a guy making league minimum and have a .870 sv% and he would do just fine replacing the goalie, especially with the improvements we make from saving 8 million dollars. I mean it's only 5%.
 

Miamipuck

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One guy gets a 100 on a test another guy gets a 95. They're both smart.

One goalie makes more than any other in history and has a .920 sv%. We could have a guy making league minimum and have a .870 sv% and he would do just fine replacing the goalie, especially with the improvements we make from saving 8 million dollars. I mean it's only 5%.

Hahaha

Can you imagine a Nasa scientist saying, "screw it, it's only a small percentage difference, what's the worst that can happen? The Mars orbiter lands on Saturn?"
 

NYRangers84

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One guy gets a 100 on a test another guy gets a 95. They're both smart.

One goalie makes more than any other in history and has a .920 sv%. We could have a guy making league minimum and have a .870 sv% and he would do just fine replacing the goalie, especially with the improvements we make from saving 8 million dollars. I mean it's only 5%.

Our defense wouldn't allow the goalie to have an .870 sv%. His would be league average at least .910.

No matter what I say you guys have your mind made up so I respectfully agree to disagree.

And to the poster(s) that is insulting me, you are showing your true colors.
 

Mac n Gs

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Our defense wouldn't allow the goalie to have an .870 sv%. His would be league average at least .910.

No matter what I say you guys have your mind made up so I respectfully agree to disagree.

And to the poster(s) that is insulting me, you are showing your true colors.

But since he's taken over for Hank, the defense has led Cam to this statline:

9 games played 6-1-2 record (thank you offense) 267 shots against, 239 saves, 28 goals allowed, a 0.895 save%, and a 3.06 GAA.

Funny how the defense lets Hank be the best goalie of this decade.
 

Mikos87

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Don't see why the backup is a conversation piece other than the bad goals he's given up that creates tension for the fans.

Guy is 7-1-2 since Hank went down. Most would consider it a good thing if the backup went 5-5 in a ten game stretch with the starter out.

Cam needlessly handles the puck a little too much, but out of the possible 20 points, he's gotten 16. How much more can you ask for?
 

gary laser eyes

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Our defense wouldn't allow the goalie to have an .870 sv%. His would be league average at least .910.

No matter what I say you guys have your mind made up so I respectfully agree to disagree.

And to the poster(s) that is insulting me, you are showing your true colors.

No it's just that everything you are trying to argue is the opposite of what is currently happening in real life since Hank went down and Talbot took over.

If you were trying to seriously prove your argument, you picked the worst time to do so.
 

NYRangers84

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Don't see why the backup is a conversation piece other than the bad goals he's given up that creates tension for the fans.

Guy is 7-1-2 since Hank went down. Most would consider it a good thing if the backup went 5-5 in a ten game stretch with the starter out.

Cam needlessly handles the puck a little too much, but out of the possible 20 points, he's gotten 16. How much more can you ask for?

Those points don't count though, Lundqvist wasn't playing.
 

Bleed Ranger Blue

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Like I've been saying, I wonder if opinions of Cam would change if the team in front of him wasn't scoring 3.9 goals per game over the last 10.
 
Jan 8, 2012
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Like I've been saying, I wonder if opinions of Cam would change if the team in front of him wasn't scoring 3.9 goals per game over the last 10.

There would be meltdowns and people would be calling for Talbot's head.

He's lucky that the Rangers' exploding offense has covered up his woeful play in net.
 
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