Cam Talbot - Mod warning #251

[ReggieDunlop68]

Hutton played in only 15 games. If they split the games we'd see much closer numbers. Plus it can be because Hutton is having a cold stretch and/or Rinne is having a hot stretch.

Do you not remember the terrible injuries and post injury infections Rinne had last year?

Look at Hutton and Rinne's numbers over several years again.

 

[Miamipuck]

They're not the same in terms of how they play, how tall they are, their equipment brand, etc. But skill wise they are nearly identical.
The argument is smart, it's based on sound logic and facts which I keep presenting.

BTW, believe it or not but going back to 2011, Cory Schneider has been the best goalie in the league but you never hear about him.

Skill wise they're not identical, that's nonsense, there's no sound logic nor facts involved on your part. The only sound logic are the posters that keep pointing out how wrong you are, using statistical analysis.

In the real world there are elite goalies and they in fact do play better than average to below average goalies. They don't require a fantasy sv% that only a 4'x6' piece of plexiglass across the net could achieve.

A sample size where Talbot gives up 3 plus goals a game but the Rangers have been scoring 4 or more doesn't prove your point, in even the slightest way.

BTW big deal Schneider has been the best statistical goalie, he has played in less than half the games, playoffs included than Hank. That said, so what, nobody ever said he wasn't good.

 

[NYRangers84]

Do you not remember the terrible injuries and post injury infections Rinne had last year?

Look at Hutton and Rinne's numbers over several years again.

I did and Rinne is a little better, 1% better. Making 10x as much as Hutton.

 

[NYRangers84]

Going back to last season Talbot's been slightly better than Lundqvist.
I'm interested to see what the numbers look like when Lundqvist gets back, if Talbot stays ahead of him that is. He's got to pick up his play if that's going to happen.

 

[CaptainMcD]

Going back to last season Talbot's been slightly better than Lundqvist.
I'm interested to see what the numbers look like when Lundqvist gets back, if Talbot stays ahead of him that is. He's got to pick up his play if that's going to happen.

Against lesser opponents. And half the sample size.

 

[East Coast Bias]

Not to pile on, but you're mistaking a statistically small number or difference (i.e. difference in Save%), with something being statistically insignificant.

Take comparisons of Lundqvist, Halak, and the NHL average. If you take all of their save %s, and the league average shots against per team, the Rangers S/A, and Islanders S/A per game - run it all together.

The result is that Hank is going to allow 27-29 goals PER SEASON less than halak. That's not nothing. At all.

 

[NYRangers84]

Against lesser opponents. And half the sample size.

He's played well against several tough opponents including the Blackhawks, Kings and Red Wings.

 

[JohnC]

Going back to last season Talbot's been slightly better than Lundqvist.
I'm interested to see what the numbers look like when Lundqvist gets back, if Talbot stays ahead of him that is. He's got to pick up his play if that's going to happen.

You should talk to us when he plays 63 out of 82 games

 

[NYRangers84]

Not to pile on, but you're mistaking a statistically small number or difference (i.e. difference in Save%), with something being statistically insignificant.

Take comparisons of Lundqvist, Halak, and the NHL average. If you take all of their save %s, and the league average shots against per team, the Rangers S/A, and Islanders S/A per game - run it all together.

The result is that Hank is going to allow 27-29 goals PER SEASON less than halak. That's not nothing. At all.

I look at adjusted save percentage, which is the most accurate tool we have to gauge a goaltender's skill.

Since 2011/2012 season including playoffs:

Hanks is 92.87%
Halaks is 92.44%

Hank has been 0.43% better than Halak since then.

Run your numbers with that 0.43% difference keeping in mind how much more Lundqvist makes.

 

[haveandare]

Yeah pretty much. They pay top dollar because it has become the norm. I'm sure if I had a talk with one of them and explained all of this they would have an epiphany. Sather would kick himself in the butt.

Either that or they'd just tell me to go home since it would seem insulting having told they're wrong.

Or, they'd explain their line of thought which would be based on actually doing their job at all, and then doing it well on top of that, and you'd have an epiphany.

I can't possibly accept that owners are paying tens of millions of dollars to players that don't warrant that money at all because their professional GMs don't get this fairly basic argument that you're pointing out.

Extraordinary claims (you're a better GM than any practicing GM, let alone successful ones), require extraordinary evidence. Pointing out the small variance in overall goalie stats and saying that it's all on the team isn't that IMO.

 

[jniklast]

I did and Rinne is a little better, 1% better. Making 10x as much as Hutton.

The increase in save percentage isn't the important size, it's the amount if goals prevented, which is the inverse of the save percentage. An increase of one percentage point at 91% means 12% less goals conceded.

 

[NYRangers84]

The increase in save percentage isn't the important size, it's the amount if goals prevented, which is the inverse of the save percentage. An increase of one percentage point at 91% means 12% less goals conceded.

1% more goals prevented not 12%. How the heck did you get 12%?

Nobody in the world uses your so called "inverse of the save percentsage".

 

[OnlyTruth]

Yep, this.

That's why I have a problem with Lundqvist getting 8.5m/year. If anything I can understand some goalies deserve more due to seniority but I wouldn't go higher than 4 million. Still it doesn't make sense to keep a goalie getting paid millions when you can sign someone for league minimum and still get the same results.

Wow, you make me look like Hank's biggest fan.

 

[NYRangers84]

Wow, you make me look like Hank's biggest fan.

LoL are you laughing at what I said or how extreme I am?

 

[jniklast]

1% more goals prevented not 12%. How the heck did you get 12%?

Nobody in the world uses your so called "inverse of the save percentsage".

Everybody in the world uses the inverse of the save percentage as that is the goals against.

A goalie having a .910 SV% let's in 12.5% more goals than a goalie having a .920 SV% on the same amount of shots.

 

[Miamipuck]

1% more goals prevented not 12%. How the heck did you get 12%?

Nobody in the world uses your so called "inverse of the save percentage".

No, he is correct.

 

[NYRangers84]

Everybody in the world uses the inverse of the save percentage as that is the goals against.

A goalie having a .910 SV% let's in 12.5% more goals than a goalie having a .920 SV% on the same amount of shots.

He lets in 1% more in relative to the amount of shots.
100 shots, 91% is 91 saves, 92% is 92 saves, that's 1 more save per 100 shots or 1% more!

 

[jniklast]

He lets in 1% more in relative to the amount of shots.
100 shots, 91% is 91 saves, 92% is 92 saves, that's 1 more save per 100 shots or 1% more!

Yes, and it's 9 goals let in vs. 8 goals let in. So 1/8=12.5% more goals let in.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

I did and Rinne is a little better, 1% better. Making 10x as much as Hutton.

For Rinne, I too off the 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 (DNP in NHL), and 2007-2008 seasons were he played 2, 0, and 1 game respectively.

For Hutton, I took of 2012-2013 because he only played one game.

If we include Rinne's injury riddled season his career sv PCT. is 0.917, and his GAA is 2.37
If we disregard and injury riddled season his career sv PCT. is 0.920, and his GAA is 2.30

Hutton's career sv PCT. is 0.908, and his GAA is 2.57.

I think it's fair to exclude an injury riddled season (I still included the year where Hutton played more games in his stats), so if you take the adjusted numbers...

Hutton's career sv PCT. is well below league average, and he allows 11% more goals/game than Rinne.

All while he's the backup, in far less minutes, and on the same defensive team as the world class goaltender.

 

[NYRangers84]

Yes, and it's 9 goals let in vs. 8 goals let in. So 1/8=12.5% more goals let in.

Only relative to the amount of shots is important.

 

[jniklast]

You're assuming the number of shots is 10. 9 in 10 shots vs 8 in 10 shots is 12.5%.

No. On 100 shots a goalie with a .920 let's in 8 goals, while a goalie with a .910 SV% let's in 9 goals.

So how much more goals did goalie b give up? He gave up 1/8=12.5% more goals than goalie a. And that relation is the same, whether it's 100 or 1000 shots.

 

[NYRangers84]

No. On 100 shots a goalie with a .920 let's in 8 goals, while a goalie with a .910 SV% let's in 9 goals.

So how much more goals did goalie b give up? He gave up 1/8=12.5% more goals than goalie a. And that relation is the same, whether it's 100 or 1000 shots.

No he gave up 1/100 more goals.

 

[OnlyTruth]

LoL are you laughing at what I said or how extreme I am?

I was laughing because you came up with the same numbers as I had in my mind. I was just trying not to say it, because didn't want all the vulchers jump on the case.

 

[jniklast]

Okay you're right but it's still 1 goal every 100 shots difference which is 1% of the shots.

So 12.5% more goals against is meaningless? And that's for a 1% difference in SV%. As I have shown in a previous post, the difference between the league leader and the average save percentage amounts to 38% more goals against. That is very significant.

 

[NYRangers84]

So 12.5% more goals against is meaningless? And that's for a 1% difference in SV%. As I have shown in a previous post, the difference between the league leader and the average save percentage amounts to 38% more goals against. That is very significant.

If both goalies face 2,000 shots a year.
Goalie A with 92% saves 1840 shots
Goalie B with 91% saves 1820 shots

Goalie A saves 20 goals more.

20 out of 2,000 shots is 1%.