C Shane Wright (2022, 4th, SEA) Part 4

[Zilo44]

Shane Wright listed on the Knights website when I did a Google search :O

 

[Isaac Nootin]

I think theres alot of truth in this, and correct me if wrong but he was the first OHL exceptional player after McDavid (Laf was in the Q) and that led to people thinking hed have the same offensive skills as McDavid but thats just not Wrights game.

Sean Day was granted exceptional status in the OHL a year after McDavid.

 

[rsteen]

I feel like calling Bergy a late bloomer needs a bit of an asterisk. He was a late bloomer in his mid-teens, but was a stud by his late teens. 39 points in 71 games in his D+1, 61 points in 68 games in his D+2.

I do agree that there are stylistic similarities - both very cerebral, 2-way, goal scoring centres. The main problem I have with Bergeron comps is that what makes Bergy so special isn’t that he’s GOOD defensively, it’s that he’s absolutely PHENOMENAL. Like, arguably the best defensive forward of all time, and if not, certainly close. Wright is good defensively, but like basically everyone he’s incredibly unlikely to be particularly close to Bergeron.

I only meant Bergeron was physically a late bloomer. Not many 5"7 15 year olds end up at 6"1 200ish lbs. Today, he would be drafted a lot higher even if he was small at 17.
I agree, Wright won't be Bergeron because Bergeron is a unicorn. But 'Bergeron-lite' would still make any team pretty happy.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Why do you have to bring up Slaf? Slaf is 6'4 230lbs vs. Shane Wright who is a tiny little center. They're different players.

Wright is 6-0, 192. Smaller than Slaf, yes, but not tiny by any measure.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

I only meant Bergeron was physically a late bloomer. Not many 5"7 15 year olds end up at 6"1 200ish lbs. Today, he would be drafted a lot higher.
I agree, Wright won't be Bergeron because Bergeron is a unicorn. But 'Bergeron-lite' would still make any team pretty happy.

Will be and could be are two different things.

When I saw Patrice Bergeron in his draft year, I did not think he would be the player he is today. I thought he could become a good player and he made tremendous development strides after he was drafted.

I don't think anyone is saying that Wright will be the next Patrice Bergeron, but to suggest that he could be that kind of player is not unreasonable. The talent is there, but he'll have to put in the work. If Wright scores more goals and points than Bergeron but only wins the Selke trophy once or twice -- as opposed to the five times (and counting) Bergeron has won it -- does that make him "Bergeron-lite"? Or do we need to compare him to a different player? Jonathan Toews won it once and was runner-up twice. As of today, Toews has a 0.83 ppg average, which pro-rates to 68-point pace over an 82-game season, which is only slightly higher than Bergeron's production level.

Both of these two players offer pretty high ceilings overall, but not super-high ceilings in terms of point production. If Wright approaches either of these two in point production while playing well defensively, he'll have had a great career.

Is this what people expected when he bested Connor McDavid's ppg rate as a 15-year-old in the OHL? Probably not, but I think it illustrates that players develop differently and expectations/projections need to be adjusted as players go through their teen years and in the four or five years after they're drafted.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Thanks for sharing.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

A little surprised that a team going for it would trade a defenseman who's second in team scoring among blueliners and contributing already as part of the futures package.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Will be and could be are two different things.

When I saw Patrice Bergeron in his draft year, I did not think he would be the player he is today. I thought he could become a good player and he made tremendous development strides after he was drafted.

I don't think anyone is saying that Wright will be the next Patrice Bergeron, but to suggest that he could be that kind of player is not unreasonable. The talent is there, but he'll have to put in the work. If Wright scores more goals and points than Bergeron but only wins the Selke trophy once or twice -- as opposed to the five times (and counting) Bergeron has won it -- does that make him "Bergeron-lite"? Or do we need to compare him to a different player? Jonathan Toews won it once and was runner-up twice. As of today, Toews has a 0.83 ppg average, which pro-rates to 68-point pace over an 82-game season, which is only slightly higher than Bergeron's production level.

Both of these two players offer pretty high ceilings overall, but not super-high ceilings in terms of point production. If Wright approaches either of these two in point production while playing well defensively, he'll have had a great career.

Is this what people expected when he bested Connor McDavid's ppg rate as a 15-year-old in the OHL? Probably not, but I think it illustrates that players develop differently and expectations/projections need to be adjusted as players go through their teen years and in the four or five years after they're drafted.

It's absolutely unreasonable to think Wright has Bergeron potential IMO. Wright is not nearly competitive enough on pucks. He literally floated around for about half the year in Kingston.

Christian Dvorak is a reasonable expectation, maybe with a higher goal scoring ceiling

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Aside from maybe one or two people, the expectations tempered to "he probably won't be a 100 point guy at the next level, but rather a Toews-like player who can produce 70+ points and good defense".

You also can't take player comparables literally. If someone mentions Bergeron, it's not because they're saying Wright will LITERALLY be as good defensively as Bergeron. It's an example of a two-way center who can put up a good amount of points while also being a good defensive center.

FWIW, my original assessment/comparable I used way back after the U-18 and before his draft year, was a Toews-like player. Someone who can score 65+ points most years with maybe a point per game at his peak to go along with a strong defensive game. Aside from me arguing against people writing off his offense completely so I'll defend his offensive skillset, I don't think my original expectations have changed all that much.

This got me thinking and I looked up Toews on EP. Production wise, there are some similarities between the two, who both put up gaudy numbers in minor hockey. Toews went off at the U17 when he was 16, while Wright had 7 points in five game as a 15yo. Wright went off at the U18s in his 16 yo season after missing the entire OHL year because of COVID, notching the highest ppg of the tournament.

In their first WJC events as 17-year-olds, they had modest production. Toews had two assists in six games while Wright had one assist in two games before the 2022 event was cancelled and didn't play in the restaged event in the summer (a mistake on Seattle's part, IMHO, who suggested he not attend).

Then, as an 18-year-old, Toews had 4G, 3A for 7 pts in six games while Wright had the same totals in seven games. I don't remember anyone putting the "bust" label on Toews because of his point total -- even before he delivered that clutch shootout performance against the U.S. in the 2007 world junior semifinal.

Of course, point totals do not tell the whole story and in such a short tournament mean little in projecting NHL production, it is interesting to compare the production of the two and the perception of the two.

If Shane Wright were to drop an F bomb on national TV like Toews did, would more hockey fans like him?

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

It's absolutely unreasonable to think Wright has Bergeron potential IMO. Wright is not nearly competitive enough on pucks. He literally floated around for about half the year in Kingston.

Christian Dvorak is a reasonable expectation, maybe with a higher goal scoring ceiling

Your expectation has dropped in the last month. A month ago, you said his comparable was Sean Monahan. Now it's Dvorak, who is not nearly as good as Monahan.

By next month, you'll be suggesting Wright quit hockey and sell insurance.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Your expectation has dropped in the last month. A month ago, you said his comparable was Sean Monahan. Now it's Dvorak, who is not nearly as good as Monahan.

By next month, you'll be suggesting Wright quit hockey and sell insurance.

Nic Dowd will be the next comparable.

 

[wetcoast]

Will be and could be are two different things.

When I saw Patrice Bergeron in his draft year, I did not think he would be the player he is today. I thought he could become a good player and he made tremendous development strides after he was drafted.

I don't think anyone is saying that Wright will be the next Patrice Bergeron, but to suggest that he could be that kind of player is not unreasonable. The talent is there, but he'll have to put in the work. If Wright scores more goals and points than Bergeron but only wins the Selke trophy once or twice -- as opposed to the five times (and counting) Bergeron has won it -- does that make him "Bergeron-lite"? Or do we need to compare him to a different player? Jonathan Toews won it once and was runner-up twice. As of today, Toews has a 0.83 ppg average, which pro-rates to 68-point pace over an 82-game season, which is only slightly higher than Bergeron's production level.

Both of these two players offer pretty high ceilings overall, but not super-high ceilings in terms of point production. If Wright approaches either of these two in point production while playing well defensively, he'll have had a great career.

Is this what people expected when he bested Connor McDavid's ppg rate as a 15-year-old in the OHL? Probably not, but I think it illustrates that players develop differently and expectations/projections need to be adjusted as players go through their teen years and in the four or five years after they're drafted.

Agree with a lot of this as Wright could become quite a decent player and most likely will do so but for some the early hype will make him a disappointment but he certainly won't be another Sean Day or even a Veleno but a decent NHL player in my mind.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Agree with a lot of this as Wright could become quite a decent player and most likely will do so but for some the early hype will make him a disappointment but he certainly won't be another Sean Day or even a Veleno but a decent NHL player in my mind.

I don't pretend to know what kind of player he will be with any degree of certainty. I know that he has a high floor and the potential to be quite good. Where he'll settle remains to be determined and anybody who is 100 per cent certain about what he will end up as doesn't really know as much as they think they do about evaluating 18-year-old hockey players. I still have much to learn, but in 40-odd years of seriously evaluating and following hockey prospects, I've learned that the only certainty is uncertainty.

 

[wetcoast]

I don't pretend to know what kind of player he will be with any degree of certainty. I know that he has a high floor and the potential to be quite good. Where he'll settle remains to be determined and anybody who is 100 per cent certain about what he will end up as doesn't really know much about evaluating 18-year-old hockey players. I still have much to learn, but in 40-odd years of seriously evaluating and following hockey prospects, I've learned that the only certainty is uncertainty.

Fair enough and what you say is true but if one plays the "probability" game Wright's future does still look pretty solid, especially compared to his draft year class.

He scored 4 goals in 5 AHL games and really needs some playing time to develop.

 

[lomiller1]

I only meant Bergeron was physically a late bloomer. Not many 5"7 15 year olds end up at 6"1 200ish lbs. Today, he would be drafted a lot higher even if he was small at 17.
I agree, Wright won't be Bergeron because Bergeron is a unicorn. But 'Bergeron-lite' would still make any team pretty happy.

I don't see him as "Bergeron-lite" either. Strong defense requires effort, and effort is the biggest thing lacking in Wright's game. I also don't see him as "cerebral". Work smarter not harder still requires you to get results, and the results Wright obtains are consistently below what you'd expect for an elite prospect. IMO he's lackadaisical not cerebral.

He has the talent that he's still be a good middle 6 NHL forward even without the effort level, but he should have been more

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Your expectation has dropped in the last month. A month ago, you said his comparable was Sean Monahan. Now it's Dvorak, who is not nearly as good as Monahan.

By next month, you'll be suggesting Wright quit hockey and sell insurance.

Dvorak and Monahan are pretty similar. Dvorak is the better defensive player, Monahan the better goal scorer. Dvorak outscored Monahan in each of the last 2 sessons.

Monahan is really bad defensively, and I think Wright will be at least decent in his own end, like Dvorak. Hence why I said a better goal scoring Dvorak is a reasonable expectation.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Fair enough and what you say is true but if one plays the "probability" game Wright's future does still look pretty solid, especially compared to his draft year class.

He scored 4 goals in 5 AHL games and really needs some playing time to develop.

Yes, and he is sure to get that this year and next. As two others (@GermanSpitfire and @nbwingsfan) have already pointed out earlier in this thread, Wright is eligible to play in the AHL next year. So, if he doesn't crack Seattle's roster next season, he will at least be able to advance to another level, which will be much better for his development.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Yes, and he is sure to get that this year and next. As two others (@GermanSpitfire and @nbwingsfan) have already pointed out earlier in this thread, Wright is eligible to play in the AHL next year. So, if he doesn't crack Seattle's roster next season, he will at least be able to advance to another level, which will be much better for his development.

Are we sure he is AHL eligible next season? We have been discussing this on our boards and are unsure of this. He will only be 19 at the start of next season and not sure if the missed year in juniors (COVID) counts towards the 4th year or not.

Thanks.

 

[wetcoast]

Yes, and he is sure to get that this year and next. As two others (@GermanSpitfire and @nbwingsfan) have already pointed out earlier in this thread, Wright is eligible to play in the AHL next year. So, if he doesn't crack Seattle's roster next season, he will at least be able to advance to another level, which will be much better for his development.

Hopefully he can make up for lost time.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

Are we sure he is AHL eligible next season? We have been discussing this on our boards and are unsure of this. He will only be 19 at the start of next season and not sure if the missed year in juniors (COVID) counts towards the 4th year or not.

Thanks.

I’ll put it this way - did Ryan Winterton gain an extra year of OHL eligibility because of Covid?

No.

Same applies to Wright or anyone else that is granted exceptional status.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I’ll put it this way - did Ryan Winterton gain an extra year of OHL eligibility because of Covid?

No.

Same applies to Wright or anyone else that is granted exceptional status.

Fair enough.

 

[MoneyManny]

The Bergeron comparison is actually a pretty good one -- especially if you're just comparing style. Will Shane Wright have the long, productive career that Bergeron did? We'll see, Wright still has some developing to do at the age of 18.

I saw Bergeron play (live) as a junior and I saw Wright play (live) and the comparison is a fair one. I've heard a lot of people say that Wright's offensive upside is not that great -- that he'll never be a 90-point centre in the NHL.

You know what, neither is Bergeron. His career ppg rate is .807 which prorates to 66 points over an 82-game season. His career high was 79 points, albeit in a season shortened by injury when he only played 65 games. Those are not sky-high numbers that are out of reach for someone with Wright's talent.

His defence is every bit as good at the same age and his shot is much better. He'll need to work on his faceoffs to become as good as Bergeron is, but Bergeron had to work at it too. Faceoffs are a teachable/learnable skill

How can you compare the style of a passive player like Wright to Bergeron?

 

[majormajor]

Dvorak and Monahan are pretty similar. Dvorak is the better defensive player, Monahan the better goal scorer. Dvorak outscored Monahan in each of the last 2 sessons.

Monahan is really bad defensively, and I think Wright will be at least decent in his own end, like Dvorak. Hence why I said a better goal scoring Dvorak is a reasonable expectation.

I think you might be overfocused on the Wright of last year. He showed up to Kraken camp in much better shape. He's still weak and unbalanced (you could say average for his age group) but his energy and motor are much better than last year. He's a very good skater and can cover a lot of ice. And he's genuinely very good at neutral zone positioning. Dvorak and Monahan couldn't move like he can.

I think his off puck game will compare more to Alex Wennberg, who is genuinely a terrific defensive player just through positioning, skating, and stick-checking. He is certainly not stylistically like Bergeron, more passive like Wennberg, but that's still a valuable player. And much more valuable when you add in Wright's shot. PP scoring is no small matter.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I think you might be overfocused on the Wright of last year. He showed up to Kraken camp in much better shape. He's still weak and unbalanced (you could say average for his age group) but his energy and motor are much better than last year. He's a very good skater and can cover a lot of ice. And he's genuinely very good at neutral zone positioning. Dvorak and Monahan couldn't move like he can.

I think his off puck game will compare more to Alex Wennberg, who is genuinely a terrific defensive player just through positioning, skating, and stick-checking. He is certainly not stylistically like Bergeron, more passive like Wennberg, but that's still a valuable player. And much more valuable when you add in Wright's shot. PP scoring is no small matter.

No doubt Wright is a better skater than both those guys. I think Monahan has a better feel for the game, but he's not the athlete Shane is.

I'd like to see how his motor sustains over the course of a full season (once the excitement of the newness of playing in the NHL fades). I'd also like to see him get more comfortable initiating contact and making plays while getting leaned on. That should improve as he continues to mature, but I'm really not sure how maturing he still has left - he was a bit of an early bloomer.

He's got the right raw materials to be a develop into a good NHL player but he's not there yet. Honestly I just don't see him as a very high upside type of player.