C Shane Wright (2022, 4th, SEA) Part 4

[majormajor]

Wright is the classic case of misjudged expectations. A lot of us here believed he would be a dynamic offensive player

Some of us were trying to correct those expectations a year or more ago and it was like talking into the wind.

 

[vildurson]

Some of us were trying to correct those expectations a year or more ago and it was like talking into the wind.

Wasn't the expectation always(at least in last year) that he should be surefire second line center but with good first line center potential as well? Similar to maybe Yager this year?

 

[majormajor]

Wasn't the expectation always(at least in last year) that he should be surefire second line center but with good first line center potential as well? Similar to maybe Yager this year?

From what I was hearing the common expectations shifted from big scorer to Patrice Bergeron. Both of which were absolutely bullshit.

 

[vildurson]

From what I was hearing the common expectations shifted from big scorer to Patrice Bergeron. Both of which were absolutely bullshit.

For what it's worth, I still like Wright's game and still think he should have gone ahead of Slaf.

I had Cooley behind Wright but that seems to be bad judgement from me so far. So far Cooley has shown more potential and development but I don't know if that's more Seattle's fault on keeping him up.

Funnily enough Cooley has been most impressive with his development while he has not been up in the NHL level at all yet.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

From what I was hearing the common expectations shifted from big scorer to Patrice Bergeron. Both of which were absolutely bullshit.

The Bergeron comparison is actually a pretty good one -- especially if you're just comparing style. Will Shane Wright have the long, productive career that Bergeron did? We'll see, Wright still has some developing to do at the age of 18.

I saw Bergeron play (live) as a junior and I saw Wright play (live) and the comparison is a fair one. I've heard a lot of people say that Wright's offensive upside is not that great -- that he'll never be a 90-point centre in the NHL.

You know what, neither is Bergeron. His career ppg rate is .807 which prorates to 66 points over an 82-game season. His career high was 79 points, albeit in a season shortened by injury when he only played 65 games. Those are not sky-high numbers that are out of reach for someone with Wright's talent.

His defence is every bit as good at the same age and his shot is much better. He'll need to work on his faceoffs to become as good as Bergeron is, but Bergeron had to work at it too. Faceoffs are a teachable/learnable skill

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

From what I was hearing the common expectations shifted from big scorer to Patrice Bergeron. Both of which were absolutely bullshit.

Aside from maybe one or two people, the expectations tempered to "he probably won't be a 100 point guy at the next level, but rather a Toews-like player who can produce 70+ points and good defense".

You also can't take player comparables literally. If someone mentions Bergeron, it's not because they're saying Wright will LITERALLY be as good defensively as Bergeron. It's an example of a two-way center who can put up a good amount of points while also being a good defensive center.

FWIW, my original assessment/comparable I used way back after the U-18 and before his draft year, was a Toews-like player. Someone who can score 65+ points most years with maybe a point per game at his peak to go along with a strong defensive game. Aside from me arguing against people writing off his offense completely so I'll defend his offensive skillset, I don't think my original expectations have changed all that much.

 

[majormajor]

For what it's worth, I still like Wright's game and still think he should have gone ahead of Slaf.

I had Cooley behind Wright but that seems to be bad judgement from me so far. So far Cooley has shown more potential and development but I don't know if that's more Seattle's fault on keeping him up.

Funnily enough Cooley has been most impressive with his development while he has not been up in the NHL level at all yet.

I'm not really swayed by anything Cooley, Slaf, or Wright have done so far. I didn't have a big difference between them on value last year and I don't now. Maybe a slight boost up for Wright because his conditioning has improved a lot, it was scaring me last year. Cooley is going to have to prove it vs pros before I take him too seriously, though the talent is obviously there. I could see any of them becoming best forward from the class, or maybe Cutter who I think is built to be a great center in the NHL.

Last year I had Jiricek and Mintyukov ahead of Wright and at this point I'd prefer them over any of the forwards.

The Bergeron comparison is actually a pretty good one -- especially if you're just comparing style. Will Shane Wright have the long, productive career that Bergeron did? We'll see, Wright still has some developing to do at the age of 18.

I saw Bergeron play (live) as a junior and I saw Wright play (live) and the comparison is a fair one. I've heard a lot of people say that Wright's offensive upside is not that great -- that he'll never be a 90-point centre in the NHL.

You know what, neither is Bergeron. His career ppg rate is .807 which prorates to 66 points over an 82-game season. His career high was 79 points, albeit in a season shortened by injury when he only played 65 games. Those are not sky-high numbers that are out of reach for someone with Wright's talent.

His defence is every bit as good at the same age and his shot is much better. He'll need to work on his faceoffs to become as good as Bergeron is, but Bergeron had to work at it too. He didn't walk into the NHL a great faceoff man. Faceoffs are a teachable/learnable skill

His defense is not as good. Bergeron isn't a hitter but he checks with close coverage very well. He also levers opponents off of pucks. Wright doesn't have the balance, the strength, or the energy to win in close quarters like that. He stick checks well but his close game often leaves him on his rear. He'll get better at it as he gets stronger and more athletic but even vs his age group he is lacking in those regards. I see the intelligence and the positioning and how that compares well but they are currently opposite when it comes to battle ability.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

I'm not really swayed by anything Cooley, Slaf, or Wright have done so far. I didn't have a big difference between them on value last year and I don't now. Maybe a slight boost up for Wright because his conditioning has improved a lot, it was scaring me last year. Cooley is going to have to prove it vs pros before I take him too seriously, though the talent is obviously there. I could see any of them becoming best forward from the class, or maybe Cutter who I think is built to be a great center in the NHL.

Last year I had Jiricek and Mintyukov ahead of Wright and at this point I'd prefer them over any of the forwards.



His defense is not as good. Bergeron isn't a hitter but he checks with close coverage very well. He also levers opponents off of pucks. Wright doesn't have the balance, the strength, or the energy to win in close quarters like that. He stick checks well but his close game often leaves him on his rear. He'll get better at it as he gets stronger and more athletic but even vs his age group he is lacking in those regards. I see the intelligence and the positioning and how that compares well but they are currently opposite when it comes to battle ability.

Did you see Bergeron play when he was in junior?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Some of us were trying to correct those expectations a year or more ago and it was like talking into the wind.

Disagree here.

The wind doesn't call you names or tell you how much of a disappointment you are.

It was more like talking to my father.

 

[majormajor]

Did you see Bergeron play when he was in junior?

No. I watched him as a teenager in the NHL. He was much more physically mature and stronger compared to Wright. And I've seen Wright extensively last year and this one. I'm a Kraken fan. He's improved his pace but the strength isn't there yet. I think sometimes people look at Wright's big frame and forget that he isn't that strong, at least not yet.

 

[Czechboy]

Lol I said I might be starting to have Fantilli ahead of Bedard BEFORE the tournament. Pretty sure every one here has said something they were wrong about or would take back…

And I’m mature enough to admit I was wrong.

Wright was invisible for most of the tournament. He was good defensively but he wasn’t some “Bergeron” type player for Canada out there like you made him out to be.

If it is any consolation.. before the Tourney my pick was Fantili to absolutely tear it up and lead in scoring. I was a bit off.haha

As for Wright.. huge fan, the guy has a great toolbox! He'l

 

[NewEraGM]

If it is any consolation.. before the Tourney my pick was Fantili to absolutely tear it up and lead in scoring. I was a bit off.haha

As for Wright.. huge fan, the guy has a great toolbox! He'l

I thought Fantilli played a lot better in the elimination games. Wright had his best game in the gold medal game but I found him quite disappointing against Slovakia and for large parts of the USA game. Nonetheless, I still think he will have a great career, likely as a 2C.

I’m still super impressed with what Fantili is doing in NCAA. We haven’t really seen this kind of production from a D-1 player ever (outside of Eichel and Kariya) so it’s extremely impressive.

Bedard clearly cemented himself as #1 and what’s even crazier is he is a late birthday so he is still one of the youngest in his draft year. I think Fantilli is 9 months older than Bedard…

Unbelievable talents both of them

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

No. I watched him as a teenager in the NHL. He was much more physically mature and stronger compared to Wright. And I've seen Wright extensively last year and this one. I'm a Kraken fan. He's improved his pace but the strength isn't there yet. I think sometimes people look at Wright's big frame and forget that he isn't that strong, at least not yet.

Well, I saw Bergeron play in junior and that's who I'm comparing Wright to -- not the Bergeron we've all come to appreciate. In Bergeron's draft year, he was listed at 5-11, 164 pounds. Not sure what his height and weight were in his rookie season in the NHL, but he's grown a couple inches since then and put on about 25-30 pounds. He wasn't the same player at 18 that he is now. Wright still has lots of developing to do to become as good as Bergeron is, but so did Bergeron.

You can't write off a player at 18 as a finished product and you can't compare at 18 to a seasoned NHL vet.

 

[majormajor]

Well, I saw Bergeron play in junior and that's who I'm comparing Wright to -- not the Bergeron we've all come to appreciate. In Bergeron's draft year, he was listed at 5-11, 164 pounds. Not sure what his height and weight were in his rookie season in the NHL, but he's grown a couple inches since then and put on about 25-30 pounds. He wasn't the same player at 18 that he is now. Wright still has lots of developing to do to become as good as Bergeron is, but so did Bergeron.

You can't write off a player at 18 as a finished product and you can't compare at 18 to a seasoned NHL vet.

If we were just taking about lbs that would be a different discussion. Shane Wright is closer to 200 lbs but he doesn't have the strength yet or the battle tactics to even be an average NHLer in those regards. He will probably get much stronger, more balanced and energetic (assuming he's not Lafreniere), but it is a ludicrous expectation to think he will match Bergeron in those regards. Maybe aim a little lower.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

If we were just taking about lbs that would be a different discussion. Shane Wright is closer to 200 lbs but he doesn't have the strength yet or the battle tactics to even be an average NHLer in those regards. He will probably get much stronger, more balanced and energetic (assuming he's not Lafreniere), but it is a ludicrous expectation to think he will match Bergeron in those regards. Maybe aim a little lower.

I've seen them both play live at the same age. I see what I see. None of the skills you describe Bergeron as having an edge in are skills Wright can't improve on. It's ludicrous for you to suggest that he can't.

In his draft year, no one was predicting that Bergeron would become the player he has become. I know he was taken in a deep draft year, but he was a second-round pick, 45th overall. Smart pick by Boston, but nobody was saying at the time that it was a steal for them. Players do not stop developing at 18. Bergeron didn't and neither will Wright.

 

[majormajor]

I've seen them both play live at the same age. I see what I see. None of the skills you describe Bergeron as having an edge in are skills Wright can't improve on. It's ludicrous for you to suggest that he can't.

In his draft year, no one was predicting that Bergeron would become the player he has become. I know he was taken in a deep draft year, but he was a second-round pick, 45th overall. Smart pick by Boston, but nobody was saying at the time that it was a steal for them. Players do not stop developing at 18. Bergeron didn't and neither will Wright.

Lol try reading a little more carefully.

 

[rsteen]

Bergeron was a late bloomer. He was so late drafted into the Q because he was tiny at 15 that he had already left and was in the parking lot when his name was called, and he didn't play major junior full time until he was 17. That's a very different development curve from Wright's. It was like as soon as he grew, he was able to execute on what his hockey smarts knew all along he had to do.

Wright has a better shot than Bergeron at that age, Wright doesn't have the motor Bergeron had. I do see why the comparison is made, it's not just that Wright is good defensively. Neither of them wow you with their tools but a lot of their game is inside their heads.

 

[ponder]

Bergeron was a late bloomer. He was so late drafted into the Q because he was tiny at 15 that he had already left and was in the parking lot when his name was called, and he didn't play major junior full time until he was 17. That's a very different development curve from Wright's. It was like as soon as he grew, he was able to execute on what his hockey smarts knew all along he had to do.

Wright has a better shot than Bergeron at that age, Wright doesn't have the motor Bergeron had. I do see why the comparison is made, it's not just that Wright is good defensively. Neither of them wow you with their tools but a lot of their game is inside their heads.

I feel like calling Bergy a late bloomer needs a bit of an asterisk. He was a late bloomer in his mid-teens, but was a stud by his late teens. 39 points in 71 games in his D+1, 61 points in 68 games in his D+2.

I do agree that there are stylistic similarities - both very cerebral, 2-way, goal scoring centres. The main problem I have with Bergeron comps is that what makes Bergy so special isn’t that he’s GOOD defensively, it’s that he’s absolutely PHENOMENAL. Like, arguably the best defensive forward of all time, and if not, certainly close. Wright is good defensively, but like basically everyone he’s incredibly unlikely to be particularly close to Bergeron.

 

[Bubbles]

Any rumours which OHL team he's going to get traded to?

 

[ponder]

Any rumours which OHL team he's going to get traded to?

I’ve heard London - at least according to rumours, there’s the most smoke around them.

 

[wetcoast]

I’ve heard London - at least according to rumours, there’s the most smoke around them.

Let's just hope that it happens soon and we can see some playing time and development already.

On another note, I'm not sure as to why Slaf has been in Montreal all year he would have benefitted form the WJC and some actual decent playing time.

 

[Kojo]

Let's just hope that it happens soon and we can see some playing time and development already.

On another note, I'm not sure as to why Slaf has been in Montreal all year he would have benefitted form the WJC and some actual decent playing time.

Why do you have to bring up Slaf? Slaf is 6'4 230lbs vs. Shane Wright who is a tiny little center. They're different players.

 

[wetcoast]

Why do you have to bring up Slaf? Slaf is 6'4 230lbs vs. Shane Wright who is a tiny little center. They're different players.

I'm a big believer in that D+1 prospects should play big meaning full MPG in all situations and climb the ladder rather than getting minimal MPG on what is a bit of a downer season in Montreal.

It wasn't a slight to Slaf as I feel this way about all prospects.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I’ve heard London - at least according to rumours, there’s the most smoke around them.

London seems to acquire everybody. I think you could answer "London" to every player on the brink of being traded and probably be right 75% of the time.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

People are acting like the book has been written but he's still only a teen. So much can still happen - I'll use the couturier analogy again but it was literally back and forth between "what am amazing prospect" to "what a disappointment" to "wow he's gonna be good" to "middle 6 C upside" for years until he found his groove.

Basically anyone who thinks they "know" what kind of player he will be at 25 is just naive, so many players who are better become average, and many who are worse become stars, and the trend isn't always in one direction, just because he isn't what people expected 2 years ago doesn't mean he still can't work and improve enough to be a great player.

People shouting I told you so, could be on the other end in another couple years time, like they were with couturier and so many others. They could be right as well, but only time will tell. Not every player, in fact almost all, are nowhere near finished products at 18/19