C Sam Bennett (2014, 4th, CGY) II

[ohheyhemsky]

He's just venting his anger and trying to reassure himself that picking Leon at 3 over Sam was a good decision. I did that to try and hurHey can you let Taraveer know to put my name on the lab we were working on? I can't come to the exam today as someone just passed away in my family. I did that to numb the pain from the forsberg erat trade

Actually, if you track back to the first Bennett prospect page, I was and still am a bigger fan of Sam Bennett. I wanted the Oilers to pick him. He was BPA at the time, and I still think he'll have a better offensive career in the NHL. I was pretty pissed that we chose need over BPA, and the "need" wasn't necessarily enough to justify the choice.

Don't insinuate please. Sorry about the passing of your family member though. That sucks.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Hahaha, so which one is it?

"Most top junior players do," or "He doesn't play 35 minutes a night," or "it's not unusual, but he's likely not playing that much, but it's also a testament to his conditioning levels that he's probably not, maybe, playing that many minutes a night."

A bit of a sensitive group here, hey? I wasn't twisting anything. I read that thread, and no one mentioned his amount of playing time. Instead, it was an ass-kissing thread, without any input towards extraneous variables that could help identify other factors for his point totals.

Also, www.chlstats.com

eTOI is 35 minutes a night.

To answer the first position of most top junior players playing that many minutes, Connor McDavid, as found on that site, plays an average of 10 minutes less a game. Most top end prospects in the OHL, outside of Robbi Fabbri and a few other names actually play around that 25-26 mark as well.

Second position regarding whether or not I watch him play: I'm taking the information directly off of that CHL stats page. Unless you can give me stats otherwise, I'm going to believe it.

First of all, did you notice it says estimated time on ice? It's not an accurate measure.

Second, I've watched every home game of the Frontenacs, plus about half the road games Bennett has played in. He's not playing over half the game. The Kingston coach rolls 4 lines pretty regularly. At most, Bennett's getting 25 minutes per night.

So I have absolutely no clue where that site comes up with his numbers from, because he is NOT out there every other shift.

Edit: Looking further at that site, his numbers for the entire Frontenacs team seems off. For starters, Lawson Crouse plays a lot more than Spencer Watson does, as he plays on the PK (Watson doesn't) as well as the top PP and top line at ES. Yet they list Watson as having played more per game.

Also, this page indicates that "Estimated Time on Ice -- Based on research performed by Eric Tulsky. Top end players are typically over-estimated and bottom players are typically under-estimated. Extra-Skater has performed error analysis on this statistic if you do not trust it. It is a better tool for ranking that to know exact minutes."

So even by their own admission, they've likely overestimated the amount of ice time a guy like Bennett gets. Because I can tell you with certainty he's not out there half the game.

 

[ohheyhemsky]

First of all, did you notice it says estimated time on ice? It's not an accurate measure.

Second, I've watched every home game of the Frontenacs, plus about half the road games Bennett has played in. He's not playing over half the game. The Kingston coach rolls 4 lines pretty regularly. At most, Bennett's getting 25 minutes per night.

So I have absolutely no clue where that site comes up with his numbers from, because he is NOT out there every other shift.

Holy cow, cut the defensive tone. It's not endearing.

I'm sorry, but I'll going to have to take the eTOI over your self-regarded top notch abilities like memory and sight. If there was a better source of information, by all means I'll go along with it. Bennett is a great prospect and it wouldn't be hard to believe that he's generating the offense in a median parameter of time.

However, I can't find sources for statistics of CHL players, outside of generic, basic stats. You can discredit the source, but you're leveraging your own intrinsic knowledge to do so and that's not valid enough.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Holy cow, cut the defensive tone. It's not endearing.

Defensive tone? So replying to your post by disagreeing with it means I'm being defensive?

Then holy crap, cut the defensive tone you're taking with me, too.

I'm sorry, but I'll going to have to take the eTOI over your self-regarded top notch abilities like memory and sight. If there was a better source of information, by all means I'll go along with it. Bennett is a great prospect and it wouldn't be hard to believe that he's generating the offense in a median parameter of time.

However, I can't find sources for statistics of CHL players, outside of generic, basic stats. You can discredit the source, but you're leveraging your own intrinsic knowledge to do so and that's not valid enough.

Read my edit above. The site itself even says that it estimates the ice time, and it tends to overestimate the ice time of top end players. Than in itself already suggests that their numbers for Bennett are above what they actually are.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Hahaha, so which one is it?

"Most top junior players do," or "He doesn't play 35 minutes a night," or "it's not unusual, but he's likely not playing that much, but it's also a testament to his conditioning levels that he's probably not, maybe, playing that many minutes a night."

A bit of a sensitive group here, hey? I wasn't twisting anything.

Since this is too complicated for you:

Hes not playing that many minutes most nights. On the nights where he is playing that many its a testament to his conditioning. Not sure why you are having so much trouble following?

Also your source is completely bogus it even states that the eTOI for top players is likely overestimated. A bad set of data (like this eTOI stat) is in fact more useless than no data at all.

 

[ohheyhemsky]

Just saw your ninja edit.

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/6/26/4455830/draft-prospect-toi-quality-of-competition

These are the metrics used to estimate TOI, and although not entirely accurate, is our closest availability for TOI for CHL players. With the loss of Extra Skater, we're stuck with this information to generate an argument.

The metrics aren't half bad either, but it's true that it's not entirely accurate. That's fine though. The eTOI is more truth than made up statistics. If he's not literally playing 35 minutes a night, it's not hard to assume, based on the eTOI that he's still getting a push in terms of ice time relative to his peers in the OHL.

If the eTOI was entirely inaccurate, we'd see similar inflated numbers for top prospects like McDavid, Ho-Sang, Crouse, etc. However, we're not.

 

[bWo*]

Haha what the heck? Did you copy and paste a part of a personal email as part of your post above?

yup. A guy wasnt going to show up for class and he asked me to pass the message on. I'll just show myself the way out

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Just saw your ninja edit.

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/6/26/4455830/draft-prospect-toi-quality-of-competition

These are the metrics used to estimate TOI, and although not entirely accurate, is our closest availability for TOI for CHL players. With the loss of Extra Skater, we're stuck with this information to generate an argument.

The metrics aren't half bad either, but it's true that it's not entirely accurate. That's fine though. The eTOI is more truth than made up statistics. If he's not literally playing 35 minutes a night, it's not hard to assume, based on the eTOI that he's still getting a push in terms of ice time relative to his peers in the OHL.

If the eTOI was entirely inaccurate, we'd see similar inflated numbers for top prospects like McDavid, Ho-Sang, Crouse, etc. However, we're not.

Sample size.

With Bennett only having played 9 games this year, all it takes is for the researcher to catch Bennett on a particular night where he played a lot more minutes than he usually does to skew the overall results.

For instance, if Kingston goes to OT in a game where they had 10 powerplays, then the chances are Bennett probably played 30+ minutes on that particular night. It's going to skew his numbers more than it would skew a guy's who has played 40 or 50+ games.

It's no different than points per game. Bennett's PPG is almost on par with McDavid's. But over the long haul, McDavid's is probably a more accurate measurement of success in a full season because he's produced at that rate for a far larger sample size.

 

[ohheyhemsky]

Since this is too complicated for you:

Hes not playing that many minutes most nights. On the nights where he is playing that many its a testament to his conditioning. Not sure why you are having so much trouble following?

Also your source is completely bogus it even states that the eTOI for top players is likely overestimated. A bad set of data (like this eTOI stat) is in fact more useless than no data at all.

It was hard to follow due to your inability to structure or formulate a logical paragraph.

"It's not uncommon for players to play that many minutes." - Relating to the availability that he has a large amount of TOI.

"Although he doesn't play that many minutes." - Contradicting the first point. That's fine.

"It's a testament to his conditioning to play." Hat on a hat. If, as you've concluded, he's not playing that many minutes, how would it be a testament on his conditioning? You created a logical fallacy. Therefore, it doesn't make sense. Is that an easy enough explanation for you regarding my previous response?


Anyways, back to Bennett. Unless you guys, who are adamant that he's playing less time can show any information otherwise, eTOI is the closest resource to the amount of time that he's playing right now. The metric standard for gathering the information of his eTOI is still a better metric than, "I don't think so, based on subjective viewings."

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Anyways, back to Bennett. Unless you guys, who are adamant that he's playing less time can show any information otherwise, eTOI is the closest resource to the amount of time that he's playing right now. The metric standard for gathering the information of his eTOI is still a better metric than, "I don't think so, based on subjective viewings."

How am I going to show information otherwise? Bring a camera with me the next time Kingston plays, and time Bennett's ice time just to show you? Would you still doubt me even if I showed you the entire game and you saw for yourself that he wasn't on for half the game, just because a website tells you otherwise?

I've already explained why it isn't possible for him to AVERAGE 35 minutes per game. Kingston rolling 4 lines, Kingston's coach sitting the top line in the third period during blow outs, etc. But you take more stock in a site *that even states it's an estimate and they overestimate top end players* as gospel.

In any case, either way I don't see how it's a knock on Bennett. Even IF that ice time is accurate (it's not), how is that a negative against his production? If he can handle playing 35 minutes a night and show absolutely no fatigue to still put up over 2 points per game, how is that a bad thing?

 

[ohheyhemsky]

Sample size.

With Bennett only having played 9 games this year, all it takes is for the researcher to catch Bennett on a particular night where he played a lot more minutes than he usually does to skew the overall results.

For instance, if Kingston goes to OT in a game where they had 10 powerplays, then the chances are Bennett probably played 30+ minutes on that particular night. It's going to skew his numbers more than it would skew a guy's who has played 40 or 50+ games.

It's no different than points per game. Bennett's PPG is almost on par with McDavid's. But over the long haul, McDavid's is probably a more accurate measurement of success in a full season because he's produced at that rate for a far larger sample size.

Very true. However, I don't think a single night is able to skew the numbers, especially considering the metrics used for eTOI aren't entirely based through individual viewings. The small sample size does, as in 9 games, does skew the results though. Based through a longer season, you'll see a large drop in that number.

However, it's still a decent indicator of his general TOI. It can't be hard to assume that a top flight prospect is getting a push in his return, especially after conditioning in the NHL on what is similar to a "practice squad," for the flames.

It's weird that eTOI on Extra Skater, before they changed their formula towards what even chlstats.com admits is a better and more accurate source, was used constantly on this board for similar arguments yet this is getting such a contentious response.

 

[ohheyhemsky]

How am I going to show information otherwise? Bring a camera with me the next time Kingston plays, and time Bennett's ice time just to show you? Would you still doubt me even if I showed you the entire game and you saw for yourself that he wasn't on for half the game, just because a website tells you otherwise?

I've already explained why it isn't possible for him to AVERAGE 35 minutes per game. Kingston rolling 4 lines, Kingston's coach sitting the top line in the third period during blow outs, etc. But you take more stock in a site *that even states it's an estimate and they overestimate top end players* as gospel.

In any case, either way I don't see how it's a knock on Bennett. Even IF that ice time is accurate (it's not), how is that a negative against his production? If he can handle playing 35 minutes a night and show absolutely no fatigue to still put up over 2 points per game, how is that a bad thing?

I've attempted to imply that 35 minutes is an arbitrary number at this point, but an indicator of an inferred inflated TOI. I think that's clear.

The initial belief in 35 minutes was invested in that site, which isn't entirely uncommon or hard to believe, considering high TOI numbers in the past seen with players like Patrick Kane and Sam Gagner on the Knights. Especially keeping in mind it's the end of the season, and as aforementioned, giving a push to a player like Bennett who is coming back to the OHL after his "practice stint" with the Flames wouldn't be a bad bet.

 

[ohheyhemsky]

Again, as I can't edit, I'll have to create another post. I skimmed over your last paragraph Sidney, so I'll respond to that.

It's not a negative, or a knock on Bennett. If you look at my first post, and every subsequent posts beyond it, I haven't denigrated Bennett whatsoever. The exact opposite actually, as I've shown past and somewhat current patronage and haven't put down his play at all.

With my initial post, I was attempting to find other variables for his high PPG numbers, other than his playing ability. Again, not a knock on his play, although several of you have misconstrued my intention. Instead, the possibility of an inflated TOI, allowing for more opportunity, which in turn adds to his scoring touch at the moment.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

ohheyhemsky, I'm going to remind you of one of the first rules of the internet. Not everything on the internet is inherently true.

I agree that you've not said bad things about Bennett, but this argument over his ice time is getting a tad ridiculous.

 

[InfinityIggy]

babble.

I already explained the context to you, if that still isn't enough of an explanation for you then its a waste of time to continue this discussion.

Secondly, just because someone writes/posts something on the internet doesn't give it any inherit truth. If I posted a table saying Bennett's eTOI was 15 minutes on my website, it would have just as much clout and relevance as the link you posted. Why? Because the stat is already admitted to be inaccurate (by the author no less). As in, not suitable as a point of debate. Which is what you are attempting to use it for.

 

[ohheyhemsky]

ohheyhemsky, I'm going to remind you of one of the first rules of the internet. Not everything on the internet is inherently true.

I agree that you've not said bad things about Bennett, but this argument over his ice time is getting a tad ridiculous.

Haha, come on bud, that's irrelevant. I raised a potential reason behind his PPG, and it turned a thread full of Flames fans and their inability to allow any criticism towards Bennett, even when it's not criticism.

He has inflated TOI. That definitely adds to his PPG numbers right now. The end.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Haha, come on bud, that's irrelevant. I raised a potential reason behind his PPG, and it turned a thread full of Flames fans and their inability to allow any criticism towards Bennett, even when it's not criticism.

He has inflated TOI. That definitely adds to his PPG numbers right now. The end.

The primary person you have been arguing with isn't a Flames fan, id say its fans wanting you to prove what you are claiming.

You have provided no evidence of this being true. The link you provided was speculative, at best.

 

[saillias]

I refuse to believe that Bennett plays a single shift of hockey outside of those gfycat vids that get posted after every game.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Bennett finished 1st in the "Smartest Player" category of the OHL Coaches poll. He also finished 3rd in Best Stickhandler (he finished 1st last year).

He also finished high in "Best Playmaker" last year, but didn't rank this year. I'd wondered if his limited games hurt him, as not all coaches got to see him play this year to give him a vote. But then, he still managed to impress them enough for the Smartest Player nod. So I'm not sure the reason for his omissions in those categories he previously did well in.

 

[FoppaForsberg*]

Surprised to see no Reinhart

 

[Wintersun]

Surprised to see no Reinhart

Reinhart is in the WHL...

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Bennett's not dressed today in Kingston's final regular season game against North Bay, so his final tally for the season is 11 goals and 13 assists in 11 games played. 2.18 points per game, not too shabby. And in terms of his impact, Kingston went 10-1 in the games Bennett was in the lineup for since his return.

Playoffs start this coming Friday, when Kingston opens up on the road versus North Bay.

 

[KidLine93]

Soooo how pissed off is North Bay with their 1st round draw. Gap between playing Belleville vs playing Kingston with Bennett looks huge.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Soooo how pissed off is North Bay with their 1st round draw. Gap between playing Belleville vs playing Kingston with Bennett looks huge.

They're taking it out on Kingston this afternoon. 5-0 after two periods. Ouch.

Then again, Kingston isn't dressing Bennett, Watson, McKeown or their #1 goalie Peressini. At this point in time, Helvig (the backup goalie), IMO, isn't OHL-caliber.

 

[JFHockey]

Kingston's record before Bennett's return:
22-25-8

Kingston's record since Bennett's return:
10-1-0 w/ Bennett in the lineup
0-2-0 w/o Bennett in the lineup

Conclusion: Bennett is a bad, bad mother****er