C/LW Cole Perfetti - Saginaw Spirit, OHL (2020, 10th, WPG)

[Kingpin794]

You are participating on a site that is nothing but people stating their opinions. Why would you expect agreement? The entire purpose is wheel spinning.

Never expecting agreement. New insight would be interesting though.

 

[newfy]

The quote is from HockeyProspect's Black Book.

2020 NHL Draft Black Book (PDF Instant Download) | HockeyProspect.com

Also I personally wouldn't put much stock into the links you gave. To me those guys are writers, not scouts. HP is the real deal and supplies NHL teams with their scouting reports. Mark is very connected and knows and regularly talks to (and travels with) a bunch of NHL scouts. HP and Bob McKenzie are the cream of the crop when it comes to scouting, although I have to say Draft Dynasty and Scouching both do a great job with the analysis and breakdowns they provide on their respective youtube channels.

I kinda agree. Like obviously using those sites can help you get some knowledge of a guy but youre right. Theyre not going to a bunch of games scouting, theyre all regurgitating each others writing for the most part I think. Mark is legit, so is Pronman. When you have the blackbook quoting an NHL scout saying that about his skating, then you have Pronman saying he doesnt have the leite quickness you would want for a guy his size and that he lacks dangerous NHL level rink speed to pull away from guys, and then you also have Bob Mackenzie saying in his final ranking that he doesnt have huge pop in his skating, I think its safe to go with those guys instead of the writers on draft websites.

But even in that post you quoted, half those reports saying "he has good skating... but" or "he has good skating...however". Those quotes say his skating is solid but a lot of them are actually knocking his skating a bit as well.

Yes, question.

There really isnt. If both of them hit their reasonable but high end potential... Perfetti is the better player

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

There really isnt. If both of them hit their reasonable but high end potential... Perfetti is the better player

These comments are always hard for me to endorse, because there's really no way to disprove them.

I remember back around 2014, it was a pretty common opinion that Sonny Milano had a higher ceiling than Dylan Larkin. Today, Larkin is obviously the better player by a mile.

Were people wrong to say Milano had the higher ceiling? I mean technically not I guess, because there's some hypothetical Sonny Milano who takes every right step in his developmental process and contends for the Art Ross this year. But the characterization that he had a "higher ceiling" than Larkin seems pretty unhelpful and largely inaccurate at this point.

Let's say Rossi ends up an elite two-way center and Perfetti ends up a solid second line, offensive winger. Did Perfetti have the higher ceiling and not reach it, or did we misevaluate one or both of Perfetti or Rossi's ceilings? Feels like there's not a great way of knowing to me.

Both Perfetti and Rossi are undersized C/LW hybrids with good vision and edge work who dominated the CHL this year. I think the notion that either player clearly has the higher ceiling is pretty speculative.

 

[xNogaitx]

I like your take on Rossi, he is not a guy I would take in the top 5; more like the lower end of the top 10 at best.

Maybe not the best comparable, but what I see is Saku Koivu. Now Saku was a fantastic NHL player and that's not an insult in any way to be mentioned in the same breath. But he could never be that dominant #1 centre because of his size. It was amazing that he did what he did at 5'9", but being able to compete, and being able to dominate are not the same.

Rossi might end up as a #1C...but for some team that will always fall short. Size still matters in hockey and I'd be hesitant of drafting a sub 70 inch centre much in the same that you wouldn't even think about picking a goalie under 6 feet.

I mean, size-wise. Looking at the 2010 draft the 10th best points producer, and arguably a top 5-7 player from that entry is...Brendan Gallagher who also stands at 5'9.

Now all signs point to Rossi becoming a better player than what Gallagher is..so his ranking of 4-7 is probably more than accurate.

But I can understand how people would take more of a chance on a guy like Perfetti (high end player if you hit, but much higher risk of not hitting.)

 

[raymond23]

Perfetti’s shot is unreal, kind of gives me Matthews vibes. Quick and deceptive and he can change the angle on it really well

 

[LeafChief]

Perfetti is going to be real good. I remember watching him in his Vaughan Kings days. Stud.

 

[Finster8]

We all know that Cole has to improve his skating, D game and get stronger. At 18 all of this is very achievable. If he can improve or develop each season which he has then I don't see any problems. Lazary has his RW Albert Grewe to play with Suzuki + Perfetti. Grewe plays a solid two way game and could lead by example. Nobody at this stage can 100% predict how anyone will develop. We all have our educated guesses, however, it's up to the individuals to prove us right or wrong.

 

[jc17]

Perfetti’s shot is unreal, kind of gives me Matthews vibes. Quick and deceptive and he can change the angle on it really well

And his stick gives Stone vibes. I get the criticism of his defensive game, but when he's 1 on 1 it seems like he's constantly taking the puck away

 

[CambieKev]

And his stick gives Stone vibes. I get the criticism of his defensive game, but when he's 1 on 1 it seems like he's constantly taking the puck away

It isn't his defensive positioning that concerns me as much as his lack of forechecking does. He's a very open-ice type of player. I would hardly consider him a line driver. His success will depend significantly on his linemates' ability to forecheck and free the puck for him.

I felt that way a lot about Nolan Patrick. Very skilled with crisp passing ability, but surprisingly poor along the boards when one considers his frame. Patrick was capable of beautiful cross-seam passes in the WHL, but he hasn't been anywhere near as dangerous on a shift-to-shift basis in the NHL. Open ice in the NHL is often a product of effective forechecking.

Intensity was an issue with Casey Mittelstadt too. Mittelstadt played the game at half-speed with Eden Prairie. Even though he skates well and can handle the puck very comfortably, he still struggles to generate consistent offense. I think he found the NHL game to be a little bit too quick for him in his stints with the Sabres. There are times in the AHL when he can't generate much either. He plays a very passive style along the boards and mostly circles around in open ice for the puck to arrive on his stick. When his teammates can't do that sort of heavy lifting, his game fades. His best offensive opportunities are in transition, which doesn't happen quite as much as I'm sure he would like.



When you consider the type of style necessary to succeed in the NHL -- I've watched the St. Louis Blues and Vegas Golden Knights attempt to smother the Canucks' offense with fast and heavy pressure this month -- I'm not sure Perfetti will transition as smoothly to the league as many anticipate if his sense of pace and intensity do not improve.

The team that drafts him should expect there to be a bit of a bumpy transition period. There is some risk there.

 

[jc17]

It isn't his defensive positioning that concerns me as much as his lack of forechecking does. He's a very open-ice type of player. I would hardly consider him a line driver. His success will depend significantly on his linemates' ability to forecheck and free the puck for him.

I felt that way a lot about Nolan Patrick. Very skilled with crisp passing ability, but surprisingly poor along the boards when one considers his frame. Patrick was capable of beautiful cross-seam passes in the WHL, but he hasn't been anywhere near as dangerous on a shift-to-shift basis in the NHL. Open ice in the NHL is often a product of effective forechecking.

Intensity was an issue with Casey Mittelstadt too. Mittelstadt played the game at half-speed with Eden Prairie. Even though he skates well and can handle the puck very comfortably, he still struggles to generate consistent offense. I think he found the NHL game to be a little bit too quick for him in his stints with the Sabres. There are times in the AHL when he can't generate much either. He plays a very passive style along the boards and mostly circles around in open ice for the puck to arrive on his stick. When his teammates can't do that sort of heavy lifting, his game fades. His best offensive opportunities are in transition, which doesn't happen quite as much as I'm sure he would like.



When you consider the type of style necessary to succeed in the NHL -- I've watched the St. Louis Blues and Vegas Golden Knights attempt to smother the Canucks' offense with fast and heavy pressure this month -- I'm not sure Perfetti will transition as smoothly to the league as many anticipate if his sense of pace and intensity do not improve.

The team that drafts him should expect there to be a bit of a bumpy transition period. There is some risk there.

Funny, I had just watched the video you posted, and saw the Mittelstadt comparison. I never really made that comparison but I get it. I dont think mittelstadt made as big of an impact in the USHL as perfetti in the OHL but I can see it in some ways. I think Mittelstadt probably has slightly better hands but the vision and shot aren't as good as perfetti's

 

[57special]

Actually, Mittelstadt was bigger and a better skater than Perfetti, and his vision was terrific, as well as his hands. Even his shot was at least decent. Exceptionally deceptive release. Agree about his passivity. That's what's so frustrating about Casey....he's got all the tools, and hockey IQ...just seems to lack the drive, or motor.

With Perfetti, you are hoping he gets to Mittelstadt's size and skating. I would hope that he is far less passive than CM. Hard to see how he could have scored so much in the CHL by being laid back.

I guess those who are high on Perfetti hopes he grows an inch, adds 15 lbs., and uses that extra muscle to improve his skating speed? Hoping for a Barzal type player, who is no behemoth?

 

[bsu]

Actually, Mittelstadt was bigger and a better skater than Perfetti, and his vision was terrific, as well as his hands. Even his shot was at least decent. Exceptionally deceptive release. Agree about his passivity. That's what's so frustrating about Casey....he's got all the tools, and hockey IQ...just seems to lack the drive, or motor.

With Perfetti, you are hoping he gets to Mittelstadt's size and skating. I would hope that he is far less passive than CM. Hard to see how he could have scored so much in the CHL by being laid back.

I guess those who are high on Perfetti hopes he grows an inch, adds 15 lbs., and uses that extra muscle to improve his skating speed? Hoping for a Barzal type player, who is no behemoth?

Barzal and Perfetti are not comparable players at all.

 

[57special]

Not now, but back when Barzal was a prospect pre draft there were all sorts of doubts about him, as evidenced by where he was drafted. Perfetti is far more highly ranked than him.

 

[Daneurism]

It isn't his defensive positioning that concerns me as much as his lack of forechecking does. He's a very open-ice type of player. I would hardly consider him a line driver. His success will depend significantly on his linemates' ability to forecheck and free the puck for him.

I felt that way a lot about Nolan Patrick. Very skilled with crisp passing ability, but surprisingly poor along the boards when one considers his frame. Patrick was capable of beautiful cross-seam passes in the WHL, but he hasn't been anywhere near as dangerous on a shift-to-shift basis in the NHL. Open ice in the NHL is often a product of effective forechecking.

Intensity was an issue with Casey Mittelstadt too. Mittelstadt played the game at half-speed with Eden Prairie. Even though he skates well and can handle the puck very comfortably, he still struggles to generate consistent offense. I think he found the NHL game to be a little bit too quick for him in his stints with the Sabres. There are times in the AHL when he can't generate much either. He plays a very passive style along the boards and mostly circles around in open ice for the puck to arrive on his stick. When his teammates can't do that sort of heavy lifting, his game fades. His best offensive opportunities are in transition, which doesn't happen quite as much as I'm sure he would like.



When you consider the type of style necessary to succeed in the NHL -- I've watched the St. Louis Blues and Vegas Golden Knights attempt to smother the Canucks' offense with fast and heavy pressure this month -- I'm not sure Perfetti will transition as smoothly to the league as many anticipate if his sense of pace and intensity do not improve.

The team that drafts him should expect there to be a bit of a bumpy transition period. There is some risk there.

Good analysis. His half speed game has at times made me a little worried. I always end up coming back to that he's a smarter player than any of the guys listed, and like probably 95% of hockey players in general. I believe he'll figure it out.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

These comments are always hard for me to endorse, because there's really no way to disprove them.

I remember back around 2014, it was a pretty common opinion that Sonny Milano had a higher ceiling than Dylan Larkin. Today, Larkin is obviously the better player by a mile.

Were people wrong to say Milano had the higher ceiling? I mean technically not I guess, because there's some hypothetical Sonny Milano who takes every right step in his developmental process and contends for the Art Ross this year. But the characterization that he had a "higher ceiling" than Larkin seems pretty unhelpful and largely inaccurate at this point.

Let's say Rossi ends up an elite two-way center and Perfetti ends up a solid second line, offensive winger. Did Perfetti have the higher ceiling and not reach it, or did we misevaluate one or both of Perfetti or Rossi's ceilings? Feels like there's not a great way of knowing to me.

Both Perfetti and Rossi are undersized C/LW hybrids with good vision and edge work who dominated the CHL this year. I think the notion that either player clearly has the higher ceiling is pretty speculative.

So a top 5 skater in terms of a tool in the world, that is the guy you want to go with here....

Larkin has a very elite gift, it is what has helped him transition and out-kick his developmental expectations at the time of his draft. I do think he was under-evaluated because he didn't flash his playmaking talent as often while playing on the second line at USMNTDP. But he was a guy that projected up a level nicely because of his elite skating and motor, people just freaked out at Darren Helm with hands forgetting that actually is a really good hockey player.

 

[wings5]

Can see Perfetti being similar to Eberle, smallish wingers with good hockey sense and the ability to score, don't think anyone would be disappointed with that.

 

[silkyjohnson50]

Can see Perfetti being similar to Eberle, smallish wingers with good hockey sense and the ability to score, don't think anyone would be disappointed with that.

At 4th overall I'd be pretty disappointed, especially if there's one or two top pairing defensemen sitting there.

 

[Michael Brand Eggs]

Can see Perfetti being similar to Eberle, smallish wingers with good hockey sense and the ability to score, don't think anyone would be disappointed with that.

I think it's more like what if Jordan Eberle was a high-level playmaker with excellent vision, too.

Eberle as he is today is a little underwhelming.

 

[Mickey Marner]

His ability to make plays in close proximity to the opponent and see passing lanes both on and off the puck in the ozone reminds me of Tavares. He definitely needs to bulk up and/or gain a explosive stride in order to gain separation at the next level. He gets a lot of points with his back to the boards, which are much more common in jr. Dylan Strome liked to setup similarly with his back to the boards but never developed the skating to make it happen in the NHL.

 

[bsu]

Yeah I can see a tavares/Kane hybrid play style comparison if he hit max potential

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

So a top 5 skater in terms of a tool in the world, that is the guy you want to go with here....

Larkin has a very elite gift, it is what has helped him transition and out-kick his developmental expectations at the time of his draft. I do think he was under-evaluated because he didn't flash his playmaking talent as often while playing on the second line at USMNTDP. But he was a guy that projected up a level nicely because of his elite skating and motor, people just freaked out at Darren Helm with hands forgetting that actually is a really good hockey player.

Not sure why you focused on Larkin's speed from that whole comment, I wasn't comparing either Perfetti or Rossi stylistically to Larkin.

For what it's worth I also disagree that Larkin is a top 5 skater in the league. Top 5 fastest skaters, sure. But anyways, that's totally beside the point.

I brought up Larkin to show that often our consensus, draft-day opinions on players' ceilings are wrong.

It's pretty easy to say Larkin was "undervalued" with the benefit of hindsight, but scouts and writers pretty consistently had him ranked in the teens, and that was largely due to his perceived low ceiling.

My comment was in response to another comment that said something like, 'if both Rossi and Perfetti hit their ceilings, Perfetti is the better player.'

I disagree because 1.) You can never disprove that argument. Even if Rossi is a better player, this statement technically isn't "wrong" because you can just say that Perfetti didn't hit his ceiling. 2.) We're wrong about players' ceilings very often.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Not sure why you focused on Larkin's speed from that whole comment, I wasn't comparing either Perfetti or Rossi stylistically to Larkin.

For what it's worth I also disagree that Larkin is a top 5 skater in the league. Top 5 fastest skaters, sure. But anyways, that's totally beside the point.

I brought up Larkin to show that often our consensus, draft-day opinions on players' ceilings are wrong.

It's pretty easy to say Larkin was "undervalued" with the benefit of hindsight, but scouts and writers pretty consistently had him ranked in the teens, and that was largely due to his perceived low ceiling.

My comment was in response to another comment that said something like, 'if both Rossi and Perfetti hit their ceilings, Perfetti is the better player.'

I disagree because 1.) You can never disprove that argument. Even if Rossi is a better player, this statement technically isn't "wrong" because you can just say that Perfetti didn't hit his ceiling. 2.) We're wrong about players' ceilings very often.

You might be wrong from time to time, but projecting these guys up and trying to guess/figure out their ceilings is kind of the whole point of this. An older, physically more developed player that uses his strength and more mature game on lesser players might not project up as well as someone that uses a more cerebral approach and varying attacking skills. Time will tell.

I get that people will have different opinions and completely respect that.

I happen to agree with those projecting Perfetti to be a better player. I think he has more growth points. I think he is an enormously gifted offensive player that has an elite shot and release. Where people question some of how he plays the game I have talked to a few scouts that point out Perfetti's positioning isn't an accident as you watch him more and more, it is play recognition. He doesn't put himself in bad spots because he senses that, he is good at finding dead zones and moving pucks between people for dangerous chances. He often sees and exploits the layers of defense which is pretty rare at that age. He needs to work on his skating and strength for sure, but those are things I am hopeful he can improve. If he cannot there are some problems ahead for Perfetti for sure.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

You might be wrong from time to time, but projecting these guys up and trying to guess/figure out their ceilings is kind of the whole point of this. An older, physically more developed player that uses his strength and more mature game on lesser players might not project up as well as someone that uses a more cerebral approach and varying attacking skills. Time will tell.

I get that people will have different opinions and completely respect that.

I happen to agree with those projecting Perfetti to be a better player. I think he has more growth points. I think he is an enormously gifted offensive player that has an elite shot and release. Where people question some of how he plays the game I have talked to a few scouts that point out Perfetti's positioning isn't an accident as you watch him more and more, it is play recognition. He doesn't put himself in bad spots because he senses that, he is good at finding dead zones and moving pucks between people for dangerous chances. He often sees and exploits the layers of defense which is pretty rare at that age. He needs to work on his skating and strength for sure, but those are things I am hopeful he can improve. If he cannot there are some problems ahead for Perfetti for sure.

Yeah I think that's a totally fair projection, and I agree with a lot of it.

My initial point was mainly a criticism of the idea that we know a player's ceiling on draft day, but maybe I didn't phrase it well.

I think the argument that Perfetti will be better than Rossi for x, y, and z reasons is totally fair.

I think the idea that, if both players hit their "ceilings" Perfetti is better than Rossi 100% of the time, is a more speculative and less helpful way to make the argument.

 

[CambieKev]

Here's another look at Cole Perfetti, this time against Sarnia on Jan. 5, 2020. This was one of his busier games of the season. Eight shots on goal.

 

[VoidCreature]

The player Perfetti reminds me the most of is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.