Scintillating breakdown here. I mean point for point you addressed every point he made flawlessly.
I have made this comment previously on the Wings board...if Rossi's ceiling sniffed the level of Perfetti, he would be a lottery pick. Period, end of discussion. The reality is he just isn't the same tier of elite talent, and that is why he is held down draft boards a bit. Wouldn't you think that a player who seems like a safer bet to be in the NHL, with stronger two way habits, and may a step or two behind Perfetti as an offensive player, would be like a runaway selection at 2 or 3?
I think when you look at Perfetti vs Rossi, it comes down to the ease of which you can see them developing. By all accounts, Perfetti is one of the brightest and best minds in the draft class, if not the very best. I'd bet a large sum of money that him learning what is expected and rounding out his 200ft game is more easily achieved than Rossi developing an multi-dimensional, elite NHL offensive package. Further, with Rossi training like a pro, and Perfetti's camp openly stating that he is behind the curve in terms of physical development, it's easier to see Perfetti filling out and packing on strength and improving his explosiveness moreso than it is to see Rossi doing the same. That's not to discredit Rossi, because his mindset is one of his most appealing traits, but it's just easier to see a larger strides out of Perfetti.
What I think this comes down to, and I am guilty of this as much as anyone, is a true underdog story. Rossi doesn't have the prototypical size, he doesn't have the elite toolkit, he isn't an athletic marvel; he endears himself to people who watch him through his effort level, the completeness to his game, the off ice commitment level, and enough skill to produce numbers "against all odds". People want to believe that somehow we've found the one who bucks the trend, and that itself carries risk.
Speaking from the perspective of a Red Wings fan, we needed Lafreniere, we needed Quinton Byfield. Missing out on those guys hurts the rebuild a lot because simply put, we need elite talent. If the Wings can't find an impact first line player in this draft, you've essentially reached the point of no return, where you tear it down and rebuild the rebuild. So when we get into the discussion of risk/reward, I think the emphasis on "risk" should shift. I could not give a single f*** about who the safer bet is to be in the NHL, I care about who is the safer bet is to be an elite talent in the NHL. When I shift the emphasis of risk in that fashion, Rossi just doesn't move the needle the way that Perfetti does.