C Clayton Keller - Boston University, NCAA (2016, 7th, ARI)

[The Winter Soldier]

Keller is one of the youngest kids in the draft. He won't be 18 until July 29. Though he won't be a bull on the ice. There is plenty of time for him to fill out.

 

[Magua]

Keller won't be anywhere near any of those guys, especially in today's NHL. You're really reaching here to prove me wrong, but in no way shape or form is he even close to an Yzerman, Sakic or Datsyuk. Besides those guys have intangibles that are just magical and HHOF worthy.

Scouting reports from draft years:

Joe Sakic, C (QUE, 15th overall - 1,378 NHL games)

"'He doesn't have much quickness...'"
"Usually, a player of this calibre would be certain to go in the top five. The reason he probably won't is his size and average skating ability."

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Scouting Report: A lack of size will always hurt Giroux's NHL status, but his offensive prowess is undeniable. He led all QMJHL rookies with 103 points in 69 games in 2005-06... led Gatineau and finished in a tie for 11th place in the overall scoring race... an Ontario native, Giroux was passed over in the OHL Priority Selection and wound up with Gatineau as a walk-on... owns an impressive offensive arsenal and plenty of hockey sense... displays the guts required for smaller players to flourish in the pro game

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It's wonderful to call them magical after one became a HoFer and the other one of the best current centers in the NHL, but the fact is one was selected 15, the other 22. Both were knocked for size, and neither they nor Keller are DeBrincat sized. But history always repeats itself with this stuff. Not all small players deserve the defending Keller gets, and some bust, just like bigger players (no more no less). And maybe Keller won't be the player some of us believe he will be -- even though I personally see some special talents to this kid. But then these same arguments will be rehashed for the next Keller-type who does in fact end up being the player some people believe he could be.

And the game today is as open to undersized players as it has ever been. So that argument doesn't fly.

 

[stavs*]

Scouting reports from draft years:

10. Joe Sakic, C (QUE, 15th overall - 1,378 NHL games)

"'He doesn't have much quickness...'"
"Usually, a player of this calibre would be certain to go in the top five. The reason he probably won't is his size and average skating ability."

-----------------

Scouting Report: A lack of size will always hurt Giroux's NHL status, but his offensive prowess is undeniable. He led all QMJHL rookies with 103 points in 69 games in 2005-06... led Gatineau and finished in a tie for 11th place in the overall scoring race... an Ontario native, Giroux was passed over in the OHL Priority Selection and wound up with Gatineau as a walk-on... owns an impressive offensive arsenal and plenty of hockey sense... displays the guts required for smaller players to flourish in the pro game

----------------

It's wonderful to call them magical after one became a HoFer and the other one of the best current centers in the NHL, but the fact is one was selected 15, the other 22. Both were knocked for size. History always repeats itself with this crap. Not all small players deserve the defending Keller gets. And maybe Keller won't be the player some of us think. But then these same arguments will be rehashed for the next Keller-type who does in fact end up being the player some people think.

And the game today is as open to undersized players as it has ever been. So that argument doesn't fly.

You're playing a risky game of odds if you think Keller will be more than a 2nd line C. I provided a realistic projection, but you seem to not want to accept that for some reason. For all the players that turn into Sakic's, Yzerman's, Datsyuk's, Gaudreau's there are dozens upon dozens more that bust, and then dozens more that hit their projection as complimentary impact players that are a dime a dozen. And no the game is still heavily centered around players that are big. You see this every single year at the draft that short players drop or are passed over alot more often than not. Sure there are smaller players in the league, kudos to them for making it work and becoming NHLers. That's not to discredit that the majority of the NHL is still over 6'. You're lieing to yourself if you think GM's and scouts don't take off points for a players size because they most definitely do and Keller would easily be a lock for top 10 if he was bigger. I personally couldn't care less what team picks up Keller, but if that fanbase is projecting him to be a #1 C, possibly the most difficult position to play on any team, than I don't know what to tell you other than good luck with that. I think if you ask any scout out there, no one has him projected that high because it's not realistic. I look at Keller and I see a slightly smaller Nylander who we have projected as our #2 C for the future. That is a safe projection. If you want Keller as a 1st line player, stick him on the wing and be done with it since size isnt as much of any issue at that position.

 

[Flames Draft Watcher]

You're saying that a 17 year old who isn't even physically mature yet would be dominated by Kopitar and Toews in the NHL?

Golly gee.

Do you disagree? He doesn't have the size to match up against those centres in the defensive zone.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

You're playing a risky game of odds if you think Keller will be more than a 2nd line C. I provided a realistic projection, but you seem to not want to accept that for some reason. For all the players that turn into Sakic's, Yzerman's, Datsyuk's, Gaudreau's there are dozens upon dozens more that bust, and then dozens more that hit their projection as complimentary impact players that are a dime a dozen. And no the game is still heavily centered around players that are big. You see this every single year at the draft that short players drop or are passed over alot more often than not. Sure there are smaller players in the league, kudos to them for making it work and becoming NHLers. That's not to discredit that the majority of the NHL is still over 6'. You're lieing to yourself if you think GM's and scouts don't take off points for a players size because they most definitely do and Keller would easily be a lock for top 10 if he was bigger. I personally couldn't care less what team picks up Keller, but if that fanbase is projecting him to be a #1 C, possibly the most difficult position to play on any team, than I don't know what to tell you other than good luck with that. I think if you ask any scout out there, no one has him projected that high because it's not realistic. I look at Keller and I see a slightly smaller Nylander who we have projected as our #2 C for the future. That is a safe projection. If you want Keller as a 1st line player, stick him on the wing and be done with it since size isnt as much of any issue at that position.

You're both right and wrong.

Projecting any player outside of 1st/2nd overall as a #1 anything is always optimistic. Looking at this draft, it's probably best to project:

- Jesse Puljujarvi as a Bobby Ryan, not a Marian Hossa
- Logan Brown as a Kevin Hayes, not a Joe Thornton
- Pierre-Luc Dubois as a Brandon Dubinsky, not a Jamie Benn
- Matthew Tkachuk as an Andrew Shaw, not a Wayne Simmonds
- Olli Juolevi as a Jonas Brodin, not a Ryan Suter
- Jacob Chychrun as a Jay Bouwmeester, not an Alex Pietrangelo
- Tyson Jost as a Mike Richards, not a Patrice Bergeron

etc. The logic is sound, but that doesn't ignore that the upside is there to be something more and there are people who see and are enamored by that upside. If you don't, that's fine. Everyone sees something differently. I haven't seen enough of Keller to judge his projection or upside but to ask a question like "What team has ever won a cup in the last few decades with a small #1 C aside from generational talents?" you should prepare for a dose of reality. It's been done. By six guys I named in my previous post who were by every account "undersized" and not "generational". Count the cups between those six.

Do you disagree? He doesn't have the size to match up against those centres in the defensive zone.

And those centers may not have the speed to match up to him in the neutral zone or offensive zone.

Hockey is not a static sport.

 

[Magua]

Do you disagree? He doesn't have the size to match up against those centres in the defensive zone.

He's a smart defensive player with tenacity and effort. So yes, I disagree. Again, centers of similar size before him have done it; they do it now. I don't see why Clayton Keller is written-in-stone unable to do so. He can beat them with his speed and with his mind. He probably isn't going to win a Selke, but he can be a good defensive center. I spent the year watching Shayne Gostisbehere beat people in the d zone with his speed and with his mind...and as a d man his match ups were a lot tougher down low than a center's. I've spent the last 8 years watching Giroux do it. And I've spent an unhealthy chunk of time watching others do it. I believe Keller can do it. He's a natural center, and that includes his 200 ft game.

I still don't get why a sub 6' center is incapable of defending solely because of "size." Does size read the coverages for him? Does it get to loose pucks? Does it transition the puck out? Every time I have seen Keller, he is willing to engage in the dirty areas too. And he's damn good on the PK. I mean, holy smokes, you people are making it out to be like he will be clinging to dear life on another player's ankles in the d zone. And the kicker? He's 2-3 years away from being an NHL player probably. He isn't being thrown to the wolves June 24th.

 

[Magua]

You're playing a risky game of odds if you think Keller will be more than a 2nd line C. I provided a realistic projection, but you seem to not want to accept that for some reason. For all the players that turn into Sakic's, Yzerman's, Datsyuk's, Gaudreau's there are dozens upon dozens more that bust, and then dozens more that hit their projection as complimentary impact players that are a dime a dozen. And no the game is still heavily centered around players that are big. You see this every single year at the draft that short players drop or are passed over alot more often than not. Sure there are smaller players in the league, kudos to them for making it work and becoming NHLers. That's not to discredit that the majority of the NHL is still over 6'. You're lieing to yourself if you think GM's and scouts don't take off points for a players size because they most definitely do and Keller would easily be a lock for top 10 if he was bigger. I personally couldn't care less what team picks up Keller, but if that fanbase is projecting him to be a #1 C, possibly the most difficult position to play on any team, than I don't know what to tell you other than good luck with that. I think if you ask any scout out there, no one has him projected that high because it's not realistic. I look at Keller and I see a slightly smaller Nylander who we have projected as our #2 C for the future. That is a safe projection. If you want Keller as a 1st line player, stick him on the wing and be done with it since size isnt as much of any issue at that position.

Saying a player has the potential to be something is NOT saying he will be. And the "there are dozens and dozens of more that bust" argument has always been a flawed one. High scoring smaller players bust no more than bigger players who teams pick aplenty earlier for their "size." In fact, as shown by Pronman, they bust less. That dozens more bust works for every position and every player type. A player is an individual: judge them as one. No, the odds say he isn't going to be the next Giroux or Sakic, and lofty expectations like that are foolish to place on a 17 year old. Hell, it's foolish to be sure he's even a future 1C. But time and time again smaller players are knocked early in their careers only for everyone to be stunned at where they came from or why they weren't drafted higher. If you missed my point posting their scouting reports and their draft positions, then read it again. I'm not making a statement just about Keller. In fact, I made it quite clear that whoever is that next Giroux-type -- doesn't even have to be Keller -- will have the same rehashed arguments against him thrown his way...the same ones you're throwing against Keller now. The same ones plenty of great players have had thrown against them.

And again, I think the player is too small to play center, shift him to wing argument is hogwash. Most players simply aren't smart enough all around to be centers at the NHL level. And fwiw, Button tweeted he has Keller back-to-back with Brown, who he's been touting as a top 5 pick perhaps.

 

[chunkylover53]

Outside of Claude Giroux I can't think of many small big-name centres. Crosby is under 6'0'' but built like a bull. Is it because they have a tougher time? Or it's rare that we see small elite center prospects? Or coach bias against them player center?

 

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Outside of Claude Giroux I can't think of many small big-name centres. Crosby is under 6'0'' but built like a bull. Is it because they have a tougher time? Or it's rare that we see small elite center prospects? Or coach bias against them player center?

It's because of the responsibilities in the defensive zone. Centres have to cover down low where physical battles take place along the boards and in front of the net. Tiny centres will have a very tough time winning those physical battles against big strong centres. Therefore they have to be sheltered and you can't shelter a #1 centre.

It's a generalization and a rare player might be able to overcome their size. Giroux has. It's a huge question mark for Keller and the reason he will likely be a 2nd line centre. Either that or you move him to the wing where he isn't going to be needed to win as many board battles and net front battles down low in the defensive zone.

 

[stavs*]

Saying a player has the potential to be something is NOT saying he will be. And the "there are dozens and dozens of more that bust" argument has always been a flawed one. High scoring smaller players bust no more than bigger players who teams pick aplenty earlier for their "size." In fact, as shown by Pronman, they bust less. That dozens more bust works for every position and every player type. A player is an individual: judge them as one. No, the odds say he isn't going to be the next Giroux or Sakic, and lofty expectations like that are foolish to place on a 17 year old. Hell, it's foolish to be sure he's even a future 1C. But time and time again smaller players are knocked early in their careers only for everyone to be stunned at where they came from or why they weren't drafted higher. If you missed my point posting their scouting reports and their draft positions, then read it again. I'm not making a statement just about Keller. In fact, I made it quite clear that whoever is that next Giroux-type -- doesn't even have to be Keller -- will have the same rehashed arguments against him thrown his way...the same ones you're throwing against Keller now. The same ones plenty of great players have had thrown against them.

And again, I think the player is too small to play center, shift him to wing argument is hogwash. Most players simply aren't smart enough all around to be centers at the NHL level. And fwiw, Button tweeted he has Keller back-to-back with Brown, who he's been touting as a top 5 pick perhaps.

I'm being realistic with my projection, its you that seems to have a problem with it. By your logic, of course he could be a #1 C down the road. Of course Marner could probably also be a #1 C. Of course Nylander could probably be a #1 C too but it's so far from reality right now, people just sound stupid when they say it's a possibility. Almost any prospect can come out of nowhere, have a big year in development and turn into something no one expected. Right now, at this point in time, there is nothing to me that indicates he will be a #1 C at the NHL level. Does he have the skill? yes of course. Does he have the size? No. Is his game transferable to the NHL level? No one knows. There are a lot of dependencies you have to look at when judging a prospect, but right now everything points to him not being a #1 C and until further notice that's exactly where he will be projected, not a #1 C. If maybe 3-4 years down the road he makes an impact at the NHL level and eventually becomes a #1 C I will fully tell it like it is. Depending on what team drafts him too, he might never get a chance to ever play #1 C


When you compare him to a prospect like Matthews that actually has a #1 C projection, he has the skill, size and Marc Crawford said in an interview his game should be completely transferable at the NHL level because he's already proven himself against men and was dominant against them. That's 3 of the most important things that Matthews has in his favour that makes his projection a #1 C.


TLDR --> don't confuse yourself with projection and potential, they don't mean the same thing. Players with high end skills naturally have high potential, but you have to look at other factors to decide their their projection.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I'm just saying its a rarity to actually have a #1 C as a small forward because its literally a matchup in hell when they go up against a big #1 with skill. What team has ever won a cup in the last few decades with a small #1 C aside from generational talents? You see all the Toews, Kopitars, Bergerons winning cups. I don't even know why this is an argument, I already said he should be a good #2, what is wrong with that?

Nothing.. Definitely have to be more exceptional to be an undersized #1C

 

[Rogie21]

He's a smart defensive player with tenacity and effort. So yes, I disagree. Again, centers of similar size before him have done it; they do it now. I don't see why Clayton Keller is written-in-stone unable to do so. He can beat them with his speed and with his mind. He probably isn't going to win a Selke, but he can be a good defensive center. I spent the year watching Shayne Gostisbehere beat people in the d zone with his speed and with his mind...and as a d man his match ups were a lot tougher down low than a center's. I've spent the last 8 years watching Giroux do it. And I've spent an unhealthy chunk of time watching others do it. I believe Keller can do it. He's a natural center, and that includes his 200 ft game.

I still don't get why a sub 6' center is incapable of defending solely because of "size." Does size read the coverages for him? Does it get to loose pucks? Does it transition the puck out? Every time I have seen Keller, he is willing to engage in the dirty areas too. And he's damn good on the PK. I mean, holy smokes, you people are making it out to be like he will be clinging to dear life on another player's ankles in the d zone. And the kicker? He's 2-3 years away from being an NHL player probably. He isn't being thrown to the wolves June 24th.

And those 2-3 years (BU fans are hoping) will be spent in the Terriers' excellent strength & conditioning program headed by a guy who spent 13 seasons doing the same for Anaheim.

 

[Magua]

Nothing.. Definitely have to be more exceptional to be an undersized #1C

Absolutely. But that isn't what they were saying.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Absolutely. But that isn't what they were saying.

I think he has a shot at being exceptional time will tell on that and he is on the right track. Let's put it this way.. the kid is a player and whether that's at 1C, 2C or on the wing a la Patty Kane everything is positive he is going to make what ever team picks him very happy. Hard to guarantee anything at this point.

 

[Magua]

I think he has a shot at being exceptional time will tell on that and he is on the right track. Let's put it this way.. the kid is a player and whether that's at 1C, 2C or on the wing a la Patty Kane everything is positive he is going to make what ever team picks him very happy. Hard to guarantee anything at this point.

Preach, sir. I agree with everything you're writing. I just took umbrage at the idea Keller cannot and will not play center, certainly 1C, at the NHL level because he's 5'10" and that a high IQ, fast skating small player can't play defense because of "size." What he will be I won't be foolish enough to say. What he could be, at his ceiling, is a different story.

 

[Othello*]

I think he has a shot at being exceptional time will tell on that and he is on the right track. Let's put it this way.. the kid is a player and whether that's at 1C, 2C or on the wing a la Patty Kane everything is positive he is going to make what ever team picks him very happy. Hard to guarantee anything at this point.

I pray that the Sens will pick him.

Everything about him except his height is outstanding.

 

[RememberTheName]

I pray that the Sens will pick him.

Everything about him except his height is outstanding.

Devils will get him first

 

[Menzinger]

A couple inches worth of height is not want makes a player a "#1 centre", it's first and foremost their skill set.

Keller has the skills to be a potential first line player. A smart team is going to take him in June.

 

[Jabba11]

Outside of Claude Giroux I can't think of many small big-name centres. Crosby is under 6'0'' but built like a bull. Is it because they have a tougher time? Or it's rare that we see small elite center prospects? Or coach bias against them player center?

Claude Giroux was as thin as Keller is right now when he was playing for the Olympiques. But skillwise, he was dominant. Now in the league, guys remember his "HUGE SHIFT" against Crosby in the playoffs where at the puck drop, he knocked Sid off his skates and scored a goal?

Well, Giroux is only slated at 185lbs on NHL.com.

For undersized centers, maybe not height wise but surely weight wise:

RNH
Mike Ribeiro

Only ones that come to mind.

Oh wait..David Desharnais.

If DD can make on the Canadiens top line, then Keller shouldn't have a problem.

 

[VoidCreature]

Outside of Claude Giroux I can't think of many small big-name centres. Crosby is under 6'0'' but built like a bull. Is it because they have a tougher time? Or it's rare that we see small elite center prospects? Or coach bias against them player center?

Pavel Datsyuk.

Tyler Johnson.

Matt Duchene.

They're out there.

 

[stavs*]

Claude Giroux was as thin as Keller is right now when he was playing for the Olympiques. But skillwise, he was dominant. Now in the league, guys remember his "HUGE SHIFT" against Crosby in the playoffs where at the puck drop, he knocked Sid off his skates and scored a goal?

Well, Giroux is only slated at 185lbs on NHL.com.

For undersized centers, maybe not height wise but surely weight wise:

RNH
Mike Ribeiro

Only ones that come to mind.

Oh wait..David Desharnais.

If DD can make on the Canadiens top line, then Keller shouldn't have a problem.

and that's part of the reasons why the Canadiens are not a good team...

 

[Walkenthewalk]

Outside of Claude Giroux I can't think of many small big-name centres. Crosby is under 6'0'' but built like a bull. Is it because they have a tougher time? Or it's rare that we see small elite center prospects? Or coach bias against them player center?

Going back a couple years but Marc Savard comes to mind.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Going back a couple years but Marc Savard comes to mind.

Going back

Doug Gilmour
Saku Koivu
Denis Savard
Marcel Dionne
Dave Keon
Pocket Rocket

 

[Rogie21]

Going back

Doug Gilmour
Saku Koivu
Denis Savard
Marcel Dionne
Dave Keon
Pocket Rocket

Chris Drury was a 5-10, 180 lb. center when he arrived at BU in 1994. Bulked up to 191.

 

[Hfbsux]

and that's part of the reasons why the Canadiens are not a good team...

I like how your sentence is in the present tense as DD has been our 3rd line center. In case you haven't notice, the habs now have a no1 center in Galchenyuk. With a healthy Price, the habs is a dangerous team.

I'd love the habs to pick Keller, Jost or even Brown with their 1st pick.

1-Galchenyuk 2-Keller/Jost/Brown 3-McCarron 4-DelaRose for centers would look good in the future!