C Clayton Keller - Boston University, NCAA (2016, 7th, ARI)

[Ainec]

Going to talk out of my ass here (bcuz I haven't watched a yotes game) but I think Keller's stats is inflated because Domi and Dvorak are both playmakers and there is noone else on that team is a true goal scorer. It's a similar reason as to why OEL was scoring 20 goals a season and now he can divert the puck to Keller

I see him as a 30-35 rookie goal scorer which is phenomenal as a rookie (Calder) but far from the 53 goal pace he's on

I didn't mean to if this comes across as bashing the 1 positive thing to their season. I really wished they landed Matthews

 

[BigDoaner]

This is most of them (only October)- if you watch, he creates most of his offense by himself. He was fed the puck by domi and dvorak one time each.

 

[Laineux]

While that's on the high end, it's not unusual, especially for a pass first player (Tanguay was at 18.6% for his career avg). He is not a volume shooter having good luck. He's also not the recipient of a lot of great passes, as he creates or initiates damn near everything he's involved with.

Yes, it is completely unusual as in it never happens. Tanguay has the highest shooting percentage out of thousands of players that have played in the last 20 years. You can't just assume every random young player will have the same sh% especially when Tanguay's shooting % is explained by him taking lot of his shots from high-danger areas.

Keller's ixgf, which I cited last page, is 6.15. At this point there are two possibilities
1)Keller is a generational shooter who will consistently far exceed his expected goals for
2)He's riding a hot streak over 17 games

 

[blindpass]

Going to talk out of my ass here (bcuz I haven't watched a yotes game) but I think Keller's stats is inflated because Domi and Dvorak are both playmakers and there is noone else on that team is a true goal scorer. It's a similar reason as to why OEL was scoring 20 goals a season and now he can divert the puck to Keller

I see him as a 30-35 rookie goal scorer which is phenomenal as a rookie (Calder) but far from the 53 goal pace he's on

I didn't mean to if this comes across as bashing the 1 positive thing to their season. I really wished they landed Matthews

I've watched quite a few Coyotes games and Is say this definitely isn't the case at all. In particular Domi has missed several great chance to get the puck to Keller in favor of taking a low percentage shot. I agree with the previous poster, Keller is generating a lot of the offensive chances. His shooting percentage will likely drop but his assist rate should go up. He's full value for what he's doing, not riding coattails.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

He's very good and talented, but he cannot carry a team on his back, more of a player who can show up and produce well.

 

[rt]

Keller is benefiting from nothing. He's driving everything. I say that as absolutely as possible.

 

[rt]

Yes, it is completely unusual as in it never happens. Tanguay has the highest shooting percentage out of thousands of players that have played in the last 20 years. You can't just assume every random young player will have the same sh% especially when Tanguay's shooting % is explained by him taking lot of his shots from high-danger areas.

Keller's ixgf, which I cited last page, is 6.15. At this point there are two possibilities
1)Keller is a generational shooter who will consistently far exceed his expected goals for
2)He's riding a hot streak over 17 games

He's going to slow down. He's a teenaged rookie.
He has not yet peaked. He's a teenaged rookie.

 

[Oberyn]

Keller is just unreal, he'll be a superstar in the league for years to come.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

He might, but because the scoring is significantly higher this year I still think he'll need to hit at least very close to 50 for it to actually be a more impressive achievement.

Overall it does feel like people are ignoring this and just comparing points of this season's vs last's 1:1. It's clear that at least the slashing penalty change is increasing the amount of scoring significantly and that needs to be taken into account.

There could be a lot of factors, adding a 31st team equivalently diluted the talent around the league for one.

But to account this to Keller scoring 11 goals in 17 games. I do not think one is giving him enough credit given the next closest Coyote has 4 goals and Keller is 7 pts clear of the next highest scoring player. Surely others would also have scored more, if what you say was happening. IE. Slashing rule.

My belief is one thing that people have rarely mentioned when people mock a comparison to Matthews for Keller. Is just how comparable their numbers were when they both played in the USDP a year apart at the same age of development.

Keller had 107 points in 15-16
Matthews had 116 points in 14-15

Eerily similar. I tend to lean that Keller is the real deal deserving of recognition, considering he's also playing on a much less offensively gifted team than either Laine or Matthews. The past few years we have been spoiled with outstanding rookies. This year is no different.

 

[seafoam]

Should be an annual top 20 scorer for many years.

Ridiculous offensive instincts and a high skill level.

 

[Ainec]

There were a lot of Canucks fans that wanted Keller at #5 including myself (same reasoning as the Elias Pettersson pick). Glad that finally something has worked out for the Coyotes

 

[cgf]

I'm still pretty excited with Jost, but man did I want Keller to slip to our pick when I accepted that we wouldn't get a shot at Serg *sigh*

 

[42]

What is happening with Keller? After winning rookie of the month in October and being PPG, he's cooled off significantly. No goals in over a month and just 8 points in his last 18 games. He was my frontrunner for the Calder but not anymore.

 

[Tralfamadore]

I'm still pretty excited with Jost, but man did I want Keller to slip to our pick when I accepted that we wouldn't get a shot at Serg *sigh*

It’s pretty unfortunate. There’s quite the drop off in talent between Keller+Serg and Jost.

 

[seafoam]

What is happening with Keller? After winning rookie of the month in October and being PPG, he's cooled off significantly. No goals in over a month and just 8 points in his last 18 games. He was my frontrunner for the Calder but not anymore.

The Coyotes aren't good?

 

[Randy Randerson]

What is happening with Keller? After winning rookie of the month in October and being PPG, he's cooled off significantly. No goals in over a month and just 8 points in his last 18 games. He was my frontrunner for the Calder but not anymore.

His shooting % looks normal-ish, wouldn't be surprised at an uptick. His OIsh% is on the very low end of average though, well below what you'd expect for a top line player. Meanwhile Boeser is near double Keller in both, well above what's likely to be sustainable

So there's probably a luck element going on here as well as playing for a bad team

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

He's as much fun to watch as my team's own ROTY Candidate (Barzal).

Two totally different types of player, both equally as exciting

 

[hbk]

What is happening with Keller? After winning rookie of the month in October and being PPG, he's cooled off significantly. No goals in over a month and just 8 points in his last 18 games. He was my frontrunner for the Calder but not anymore.

21 road games in 66 days. A new nhl record. Team and Keller is exhausted.

 

[docbenton]

I never saw Keller as an elite skill player, but very quick and creative passer who knows where to go and executes at a high %, both shooting and passing. Sure he can handle the puck well but so can a lot of other players. He'll be productive in the league but I doubt he'll be a superstar. He became overrated due to a lucky WC last spring and a hot start. He doesn't have the skill of a Gaudreau or Barzal. In fact I remember watching the USNDP when they played together and thinking Adam Fox was more skilled.

 

[blindpass]

I never saw Keller as an elite skill player, but very quick and creative passer who knows where to go and executes at a high %, both shooting and passing. Sure he can handle the puck well but so can a lot of other players. He'll be productive in the league but I doubt he'll be a superstar. He became overrated due to a lucky WC last spring and a hot start. He doesn't have the skill of a Gaudreau or Barzal. In fact I remember watching the USNDP when they played together and thinking Adam Fox was more skilled.

If you'd expressed this opinion before the current cold run it would look like something other than stat watching. I saw a lot of the Coyotes games early in the season and he looked terrific; and he was overcoming the failures of his teammates to produce. He's always looked better than Barzal to me (but I haven't seen much Barzal this year) -- even without considering that they are a year apart at an age where a year means quite a bit.

 

[SI90]

Victim of a bad team. He’s clearly their best forward. He’s a rookie and so young at that. Can’t expect this kid to carry a whole team. Under the circumstances he’s been great.