Dreger: Buchnevich is likely to be traded

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Vegas: Guentzel @ 50%

Pens: Buchnevich

Blues: Edstrom + Vegas 2024 1st



Guentzel better than Buch but if he’s on his way out then Buch is a nice replacement for this year and next while the Pens try to remain “competitive”

Vegas gets the best player for cheap

Blues get a first and the knights best prospect

That is nice start but would want an additional asset.

 

[Tawnos]

I could be wrong, but I’m having a hard time imagining Buchnevich being traded for anywhere near what MSL was traded for, which lots of proposals on here seem to be doing. I like the player a lot, but some of this is pretty silly.

Buchnevich is 63rd in the league in scoring and has a year left on his deal. MSL at the time of the trade was 8th, and also had a year left on his deal. While MSL had complete control over his destination, and Buchnevich has only some control, that difference is not enough to make the two trades similar in value.

Callahan (pending UFA, 3rd liner, captain)
1st
Conditional 1st (based on ECF, condition met)
7th

for

MSL
Cond 2nd (based on Callahan re-signing, condition met)

Yes, MSL wanted the Rangers, but this is still significantly more than Buchnevich will probably get.

 

[Captain Monglobster]

If the Rangers give up a haul like that to reacquire a piece that they deemed not part of their core and sold for $0.50 on the dollar, the pitchforks will be out for Drury. I wouldn’t want to be hanging out in his pizza shop when the Molotov cocktails start raining in.

I would reconsider my fandom if they f***ing made a move like that. And I love Buch. No f***ing way two firsts and Othmann. Add Parayko and ill use Svedka instead of 151 in my molotov.

 

[Spektre]

I could be wrong, but I’m having a hard time imagining Buchnevich being traded for anywhere near what MSL was traded for, which lots of proposals on here seem to be doing. I like the player a lot, but some of this is pretty silly.

Buchnevich is 63rd in the league in scoring and has a year left on his deal. MSL at the time of the trade was 8th, and also had a year left on his deal. While MSL had complete control over his destination, and Buchnevich has only some control, that difference is not enough to make the two trades similar in value.

Callahan (pending UFA, 3rd liner, captain)
1st
Conditional 1st (based on ECF, condition met)
7th

for

MSL
Cond 2nd (based on Callahan re-signing, condition met)

Yes, MSL wanted the Rangers, but this is still significantly more than Buchnevich will probably get.

I can understand trying to do comps based on previous trades. It’s just never a 1:1. Every trade is different.

Buchnevich was traded to the Blues for Blais + a 2nd. The consensus by both fan bases was the Blues won the trade by a large margin. That consensus has continued to grow ever since then.

It just takes 2 GM’s to agree and voila a deal is complete.

If Buch is traded, and has 50% retention, it’s a massive cost controlled 1st line player for 2 playoffs. His cap hit would be 2.9 million with 50% retained. He plays all situations including PK.

He’s only worth what another GM is willing to give up. The trade market this year is pretty weak. If 2, or even 3 teams are bidding, the price goes up.

It’s also the consensus that Army is not shopping Buchnevich. He’s listening to offers as any GM would, but again it’s another positive in Army’s corner.

This entire thread should actually be labeled speculation. There’s no real rumor out there. Dreger said he thinks Buch will be traded. That’s it.

We will see over the next 2 weeks but I have hoped he would be traded this deadline even before the season started. It’s a timing thing as to where the organization is at more so than anything.

The Blues just ranked 14th best, in terms of prospects, by Wheeler in the Athletic. I don’t agree 100% on his ranking but it’s not egregious. The Blues are in fact trying to “retool on the fly” vs a full blown rebuild.

Their prospect pool needs to be a lot better in the very short term if the retool is going to be successful. Buch is the biggest trade chip to bolster that prospect pool.

 

[biturbo19]

Well in terms of Hague/Korczak it’s guys who have proven to be able to play well at the NHL level that are young. I wouldn’t view those as as big of a portion of the deal as a Willander. But it’s something of interest that could help.

Could the defensive Pettersson be better than them? Sure but the bust factor on him is still very real (in terms of not adjusting at the NHL level). I would still probably want a 1st+2nd+ very good prospect with one of those two named defenseman. But I said if they’d include them because it’s hard to see them moving depth on the defense to add up front as it would open another hole.

That's fair i guess. The Canucks don't really have anything like that sort of piece to fill in to a deal. At least, not in terms of defencemen. They have a clear piece in Podkolzin who would backfill in a similar sense, but directly replacing Buchnevich as a Winger instead.

I was just curious in where the interest in a Vegas "package" features guys like Hague/Korczak ++, yet with Vancouver it's a bit more "Willander or bust". Because the Canucks do have some of those more middling prospects/young players to cobble together a pretty comparable deal as well. Just not necessarily instant plug 'n play young bottom-pairing defencemen.

Not even close. If that is best offer he won’t be dealt.


Those Vegas guys are bit pieces. Would think edstrom and 1st also.

Makes sense. Edstrom + 1st as the core of the deal, with a guy like Hague/Korczak as the throw-in makes more sense. Though at that point, i'm still not totally clear on why that'd be an acceptable "quantity" sort of package from Vegas, but not Vancouver. Who could also put together a package in a similar vein. Though obviously not a 2024 1st, so it'd be deferred a year and that hurts.

 

[AirGut]

I'm willing to give up anything the Blues Bros want if it's to get Buch back. So I can finally wear my Buch jersey again

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

St. Louis is most likely not retaining on Buchnevich for a few reasons:

(1) Teams rarely retain on multi-year contracts for the purpose of increasing trade value. I'm not totally confident in giving that label to the Versteeg trade to Chicago in 2013, but I'll mention it anyway. Arizona eating half of Yandle in 2015 is a clear cut case. Vegas came in as a 3rd party in the Brassard trade in 2018. Chicago did the max on McCabe last year. Other cases involve very expensive contracts or giveaway prices even with the retention.

(2) St. Louis has never done multi-year retention. The Blues have retained just 4 times in total and they were their big rental sells (Shattenkirk, Stastny, Tarasenko, O'Reilly).

(3) Buchnevich is a solid value as is. Retaining is not going to unlock a leaguewide bluechip or anything. If cap balancing is required, look at expiring contracts or a multi-year player that the Blues could use.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

St. Louis is most likely not retaining on Buchnevich for a few reasons:

(1) Teams rarely retain on multi-year contracts for the purpose of increasing trade value. I'm not totally confident in giving that label to the Versteeg trade to Chicago in 2013, but I'll mention it anyway. Arizona eating half of Yandle in 2015 is a clear cut case. Vegas came in as a 3rd party in the Brassard trade in 2018. Chicago did the max on McCabe last year. Other cases involve very expensive contracts or giveaway prices even with the retention.

(2) St. Louis has never done multi-year retention. The Blues have retained just 4 times in total and they were their big rental sells (Shattenkirk, Stastny, Tarasenko, O'Reilly).

(3) Buchnevich is a solid value as is. Retaining is not going to unlock a leaguewide bluechip or anything. If cap balancing is required, look at expiring contracts or a multi-year player that the Blues could use.

I definitely understand what you are saying. But, it's a lot easier to think the Blues would retain since Armstrong, who has historically been very against buying out contracts, came out and said he's willing to do so.

If he's willing to buy out a player, most of which on the team would be 3mil for 4+ years, retaining 2.4mil for a year and a 1/2 is not out of the realm of possibility when the Blues only have 3 UFAs this year and next that are being paid more than 1.5mil.

Kapanen and Scandella are both right around 3.25 mil and Vrana is at 2.65. Vrana will most likely have no market so he will probably wither away in the AHL until the end of the season, so that is only 2 retention slots the Blues need to worry about.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

That's fair i guess. The Canucks don't really have anything like that sort of piece to fill in to a deal. At least, not in terms of defencemen. They have a clear piece in Podkolzin who would backfill in a similar sense, but directly replacing Buchnevich as a Winger instead.

I was just curious in where the interest in a Vegas "package" features guys like Hague/Korczak ++, yet with Vancouver it's a bit more "Willander or bust". Because the Canucks do have some of those more middling prospects/young players to cobble together a pretty comparable deal as well. Just not necessarily instant plug 'n play young bottom-pairing defencemen.



Makes sense. Edstrom + 1st as the core of the deal, with a guy like Hague/Korczak as the throw-in makes more sense. Though at that point, i'm still not totally clear on why that'd be an acceptable "quantity" sort of package from Vegas, but not Vancouver. Who could also put together a package in a similar vein. Though obviously not a 2024 1st, so it'd be deferred a year and that hurts.

Problem with canucks is you already traded your first and you don’t have edstrom level prospect. You have 2 better prospects and then lesser ones. So if you don’t want to deal your top 2 prospects, which I get, it’s hard to see how you have top offer. Maybe our ask is such that nobody meets it, which is fine bc we don’t need to deal him, but a 2025 1st and some middle 6 pieces feel like price next year for rental. Hard to see why we would take that now.

 

[Oddbob]

Need veteran leadership to bring up young kids. Fyi buchy is 29 not 35. He is in prime fir next 4 years. His style ages well.

I said he was 29. His age doesn't doesn't align with the 22-27 window Detroit is trying to build. We also have nothing but vet leadership already.

 

[Blanick]

Problem with canucks is you already traded your first and you don’t have edstrom level prospect. You have 2 better prospects and then lesser ones. So if you don’t want to deal your top 2 prospects, which I get, it’s hard to see how you have top offer. Maybe our ask is such that nobody meets it, which is fine bc we don’t need to deal him, but a 2025 1st and some middle 6 pieces feel like price next year for rental. Hard to see why we would take that now.

Honestly, with Vancouver I think all comes down to how the GM/ownership feels about their chances in the next two years. If he thinks they have a serious chance at a Stanley Cup and Buchnevich can be the final piece you pay the price to get him. You need a guy who is going to impact now not 3,4 or 5 years from now. It is very hard to win a cup and if you think you got the team to do it you have got to go all in for it IMO.

 

[BlueDream]

Honestly, with Vancouver I think all comes down to how the GM/ownership feels about their chances in the next two years. If he thinks they have a serious chance at a Stanley Cup and Buchnevich can be the final piece you pay the price to get him. You need a guy who is going to impact now not 3,4 or 5 years from now. It is very hard to win a cup and if you think you got the team to do it you have got to go all in for it IMO.

They’ve already acquired Lindholm and Zadorov. They may be signing Kessel and will probably trade for another depth defenseman too. How many moves do they need to make? If Buchnevich would be their 5th new piece, at that point you are seriously risking messing up your team chemistry more than you would actually be helping it.

Buchnevich is a good player but I think they would be stupid to pay the price to get him.

I definitely understand what you are saying. But, it's a lot easier to think the Blues would retain since Armstrong, who has historically been very against buying out contracts, came out and said he's willing to do so.

If he's willing to buy out a player, most of which on the team would be 3mil for 4+ years, retaining 2.4mil for a year and a 1/2 is not out of the realm of possibility when the Blues only have 3 UFAs this year and next that are being paid more than 1.5mil.

Kapanen and Scandella are both right around 3.25 mil and Vrana is at 2.65. Vrana will most likely have no market so he will probably wither away in the AHL until the end of the season, so that is only 2 retention slots the Blues need to worry about.

He’s not willing to buyout a player until he actually does it though. He can say whatever he wants to the media to motivate the players on his team. Doesn’t mean he’s not bluffing. I’d wager a large amount that none of our current contracts are in any realistic danger of getting bought out as it currently stands.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I definitely understand what you are saying. But, it's a lot easier to think the Blues would retain since Armstrong, who has historically been very against buying out contracts, came out and said he's willing to do so.

If he's willing to buy out a player, most of which on the team would be 3mil for 4+ years, retaining 2.4mil for a year and a 1/2 is not out of the realm of possibility when the Blues only have 3 UFAs this year and next that are being paid more than 1.5mil.

Kapanen and Scandella are both right around 3.25 mil and Vrana is at 2.65. Vrana will most likely have no market so he will probably wither away in the AHL until the end of the season, so that is only 2 retention slots the Blues need to worry about.

I don't know about that connection. Other teams buy out players and don't retain on multi-year deadline sells. Notable Buchnevich-types (rental+1s) traded in full in the retention era: Bouwmeester, Pominville, St. Louis, Coburn, Perron, Muzzin, McDonagh, Granlund, Coleman.

 

[biturbo19]

Problem with canucks is you already traded your first and you don’t have edstrom level prospect. You have 2 better prospects and then lesser ones. So if you don’t want to deal your top 2 prospects, which I get, it’s hard to see how you have top offer. Maybe our ask is such that nobody meets it, which is fine bc we don’t need to deal him, but a 2025 1st and some middle 6 pieces feel like price next year for rental. Hard to see why we would take that now.

I think it's definitely a matter of debate, whether Lekkerimaki would be on the table or not. For me, he absolutely would be, for a player of Buchnevich caliber. Others disagree. Who knows where Ruthervin actually fall on that spectrum.


But i'd also argue that Podkolzin is a pretty similar caliber prospect to Edstrom. That's also certainly up for debate depending on the person and their own personal evaluation of the guy, but he's proven that he can be a solid NHL caliber winger already, and he was a Top-10 pick because he does have a pretty significant "ceiling". He's had a bit of a bumpy, non-linear development curve...but i think he's still very much at least in the ballpark of a Edstrom type value. Not being a Center isn't ideal, but there's also the element where he's a lot closer to NHL contributor and frankly, could probably be doing so right now if the Canucks weren't managing some cap implications and letting him just continue to marinate and build confidence for the time being.

 

[Blanick]

They’ve already acquired Lindholm and Zadorov. They may be signing Kessel and will probably trade for another depth defenseman too. How many moves do they need to make? If Buchnevich would be their 5th new piece, at that point you are seriously risking messing up your team chemistry more than you would actually be helping it.

Buchnevich is a good player but I think they would be stupid to pay the price to get him.



He’s not willing to buyout a player until he actually does it though. He can say whatever he wants to the media to motivate the players on his team. Doesn’t mean he’s not bluffing. I’d wager a large amount that none of our current contracts are in any realistic danger of getting bought out as it currently stands.

You make a fair point but it all comes back to you never know what is in a GMs head. For a lot of them a move like Lindholm would be their big move but there are still rumors out there that they want more and not just depth.

I guess you have to flip the question. Say the Blues were at the top of the league come TDL and they had a very good but not great top 6 that you wanted to beef up for the playoffs. A PPG, 200ft player comes along with an extra year so even if you falter you get one more kick at the can. Would you put Snuggerud on the table? Lindstein? Dvorsky? I would have to say I would consider it.

What we do know is what is being reported by the media is that Army's ask is essentially 2 1st, or former 1st rounders. I think for Vancouver to get it done it would have to be one of Willander or Lekkerimaki with more likely being the latter seeing as how we are already fairly stacked on offensive prospects at the moment. Maybe Vancouver shies away from that and that is fair but I don't think it's an unreasonable ask.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I think it's definitely a matter of debate, whether Lekkerimaki would be on the table or not. For me, he absolutely would be, for a player of Buchnevich caliber. Others disagree. Who knows where Ruthervin actually fall on that spectrum.


But i'd also argue that Podkolzin is a pretty similar caliber prospect to Edstrom. That's also certainly up for debate depending on the person and their own personal evaluation of the guy, but he's proven that he can be a solid NHL caliber winger already, and he was a Top-10 pick because he does have a pretty significant "ceiling". He's had a bit of a bumpy, non-linear development curve...but i think he's still very much at least in the ballpark of a Edstrom type value. Not being a Center isn't ideal, but there's also the element where he's a lot closer to NHL contributor and frankly, could probably be doing so right now if the Canucks weren't managing some cap implications and letting him just continue to marinate and build confidence for the time being.

Podkolzin is 5 years post draft and in nhl. Nobody outside of Vancouver considers him top prospect anymore. He may well be solid bottom 6 winger, but his value is well below where he was drafted. He would be 3rd piece in deal for guy like buchy after 1st and better prospect. Now edstrom may never reach level podkolzin already is, but at this point you can still believe that he will be good middle 6 center. I don’t think many folks around league would take podkolzin over him today; I certainly wouldn’t.

 

[BleedBlue14]

That's fair i guess. The Canucks don't really have anything like that sort of piece to fill in to a deal. At least, not in terms of defencemen. They have a clear piece in Podkolzin who would backfill in a similar sense, but directly replacing Buchnevich as a Winger instead.

I was just curious in where the interest in a Vegas "package" features guys like Hague/Korczak ++, yet with Vancouver it's a bit more "Willander or bust". Because the Canucks do have some of those more middling prospects/young players to cobble together a pretty comparable deal as well. Just not necessarily instant plug 'n play young bottom-pairing defencemen.



Makes sense. Edstrom + 1st as the core of the deal, with a guy like Hague/Korczak as the throw-in makes more sense. Though at that point, i'm still not totally clear on why that'd be an acceptable "quantity" sort of package from Vegas, but not Vancouver. Who could also put together a package in a similar vein. Though obviously not a 2024 1st, so it'd be deferred a year and that hurts.

Because the add on to the young defenseman who could probably fill a #4 role currently would have much more attached to it in my mind. I’m not even sure if it would be the “meat” of the deal. We have a massive gap in our defensive pipeline.

For reference I would hope for Korczak + Edstrom + 1 (24) + 2(25) with a condition similar to the Meier deal. It’s a pretty close comp with the subtraction of Zetterlund. From Vancouver in something sampled around Willander I wouldn’t expect much more than Willander and a 2nd with a condition to jump to a first and a cap dump of some sort coming back.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Makes sense. Edstrom + 1st as the core of the deal, with a guy like Hague/Korczak as the throw-in makes more sense. Though at that point, i'm still not totally clear on why that'd be an acceptable "quantity" sort of package from Vegas, but not Vancouver. Who could also put together a package in a similar vein. Though obviously not a 2024 1st, so it'd be deferred a year and that hurts.

I thought Edstrom + 1st Korczak and Karkki

 

[57special]

Vegas: Guentzel @ 50%

Pens: Buchnevich

Blues: Edstrom + Vegas 2024 1st



Guentzel better than Buch but if he’s on his way out then Buch is a nice replacement for this year and next while the Pens try to remain “competitive”

Vegas gets the best player for cheap

Blues get a first and the knights best prospect

Fair deal, from someone who has no dog in the fight. Wouldn't STL and Vegas be better off doing a Buch for Edstrom + 1st, assuming that they can work out the money?
I am an Edstrom fan, so that might be coloring my opinion on this.

 

[Boris Zubov]

Um, there's actual history to the nickname of Rags. When the team started, legend has it, that they didn't have a lot of money and their uniforms looked like rags. Now several decades, a few Stanley Cups and lots and lots of team history, the nickname (to me anyway) stands as a bit of sarcasm and a middle finger to those who spoke poorly of how the team looked over how they played. Someone can correct me on this, and I'm sure they will, but that's my understanding of the name's meaning and I have a lot of respect for that franchise.

Unless you have a source for this, I'm calling bullshit.

 

[Price is Wright]

One of the underrated players in the league. Point per game forward making $5.8M. Stop being prissy and make a real offer. Your third favourite prospect isn't going to be better than him ever. Make a real offer.

 

[Robtom18]

Fair deal, from someone who has no dog in the fight. Wouldn't STL and Vegas be better off doing a Buch for Edstrom + 1st, assuming that they can work out the money?
I am an Edstrom fan, so that might be coloring my opinion on this.

Edstrom and a 1st wouldnt get you tarasenko. Buch has 1.5 years thats two playoff pushes. Top d prospect another very good prospect and a 1st.

Blues needs

1) lhd (top prospect)
2) rhd or forward prospect.
3) 1st round pick

Anything less is laughable

 

[A1LeafNation]

Disagree. Contrary to public opinion, there isn’t a “risk” with Binnington. He’s a good goalie and pretty much always has been. His numbers are ugly last year because he was playing behind maybe the worst defensive team in the NHL, but he really wasn’t bad.

Even if he did regress next season, his contract would only have 2 years left and we have a cheap, good backup in Hofer. So Binnington and his contract really isn’t an issue. Goalies are also fine well into their mid 30’s so because we have a strong tandem, we won’t need to worry about overworking Binner or him declining.

There are other contracts on the team that are problematic that we should be trying to move (Krug, Faulk). But Binnington is not a concern. He is pretty consistently one of our best players and has been so for several years.

The way he is playing today, makes me think the sooner the better.

 

[CatchyTune]

Buchnevich would likely be the best player on the market if St Louis made him available. And while the price would be high, I think it would be the perfect all in move for a contender especially if hes at 50%, thats a super valuable deal for 2 runs. He could be someones version of Hossa

 

[jonlin]

I`d like to see Colorado going all in for him. They miss Landeskog and Nichuskin. Buchnevich would probably fit very well.

To STL:

- Bowen Byram 3.85 RFA 2025
- 1st 2024

To COL:

- Pavel Buchnevich 5.8M UFA 2025

I know its within division, but the offer should atleast be decent?