Boston Bruins Bruins Prospects Discussion IV - Mod warning 565

[Ratty]

probably seen him as often as 98% of the people here that don't get to providence games and don't live in Ontario... on the other hand I watched a lot of merlin melenowski and len esau play growing up in meadow lake and going to school with lenord. I saw a lot of josh green and some joe colburn as I went to university in Camrose and lived in the area. saw a few Viking cup games... saw my cousin play some for the saint albert team here near Edmonton.

sure didn't make me an expert on these guys. I know a lot of people here want to bang their chest and tell us they are experts. but I go to the draft sites and I see the record of how successful teams drafting is. honestly even the professional real nhl teams are getting it wrong more than 50% of the time

a typical fan here will cry and ***** and moan that boston cant get the first round pick to be a success... but guess what... no one else can either

every single team gets it wrong MORE OFTEN then they get it right

if the real nhl teams that pay these scouts to watch the games... interview the players and the players coaches... cant get it right more than 50% of the time than I'm ok if I don't get it right more than 50% of the time too. and I don't honestly feel that watching 3 games or 5 games or 7 games is going to make much difference.

hell you and I might have both watched a guy like ron francais play 100 times... and maybe a guy like yzerman play 100 times... and maybe a guy like joe sakic play 100 times... whats the odds we would rank them the same best to worst? and if we asked 2 other people to rank them whats the odds they would agree too

rating hockey players success is a very very very very subjective thing even when we are talking about hof careers that are 1000 plus games.

I try to limit my own judgement to those playes who I feel are winners and will help a team win... and those players who I think take up spots in the lifeboat

I obviously hope nothing but the best for any bruin prospect... but I see a numbers game crunch coming when we simply wont be able to break X++ number of kids into the lineup. in order to let the strong survive and thrive some of the weaker chattle is going to have to be let loose.

will senshyn find a magic buttom that makes him one of our winners? a piece to the puzzle that cant be lived without? we do have a need for a rh shot winger... so that gives him a chance... but I wish I saw him attempting to become more of a 'bruin' type of guy... like debrusk worked on and succeeded.

and I wish I wasn't being reminded so much of a guy from the past like rico fata when I hear comments about senshyn and his style of play and how hes progressing.

I still am predicting that Bjork/debrusk have the best odds of the current kid wingers to make an impact here long term. I like cehlerik chances to become number 3 on my list but still want to see him do it at nhl... and I'm leaving the 4th spot for senshyn over heinen despite heinens success this year.

could I be wrong on all 4? sure... but it doesn't cost me anything to throw my guess work opinion out and people who think I talk too much can always put me on ignore

. Well said.

Most us fancy ourselves as experts or scouts after seeing a kid two or three times. And we don't really know what's going on inside his head or whether he's feeling under the weather.

I've made the mistake often in pre judging talent and can't see what the coaches see. Then I'm surprised that the guy can actually play. Or, the reverse.

But speed cannot be taught. Likewise agility and hand to eye coordination. If the skill is there it's up to the individual and coaching staff to maximize that ability. Some take longer than others.

 

[Dr Hook]

And something else re: scouting- of course teams get it wrong 50% or more of the time. It's a numbers game. You have 30 (31 now) teams that carry at most 23 guys at season start. That is 700 jobs for players at the NHL level. Every draft produces over 200 picks. Then you have your undrafted guys competing for jobs also + low profile AHL free agents- how can you get a very good hit percentage at that rate? There isn't ever going to be room for all the drafted players when you start taking into account contract lengths, the salary cap, and immediate team needs. I'm very happy if even 1/3 of our guys hit at some level in NHL, and we have a good pile of prospects and young players. The fact that we are seeing so many this year alone play in the league and not look out of place is amazing. A guy like Szwarz is not probably even going to be a great player, but he is managing to look competent as a bottom 6 guy. Maybe he gets pushed out by the numbers game when bodies heal, but it says a lot about our prospects that he is even up in Boston.

Maybe Seny makes it, maybe not, but in terms of our talent waiting in the wings or just emerging, Bruins are doing more than okay

 

[Dr Hook]

Also, I assume most of you have seen this from Bruins site:

Urho Update

When the Bruins selected Urho Vaakanainen with the 18th pick of the 2017 NHL Entry Draft, many fan's were unfamiliar with the slick-skating Finn. In the 2016-17 season, Vaakanainen was one of the most youthful players in the Finnish Elite League at just 17 years old. The youngster played quality minutes for JYP over 41 regular season games and 14 playoff matches.
This season, playing with SaiPa, Vaakanainen has been a steady presence on the back end. Now 18, the defenseman leads his team in plus/minus (plus-6) and plays a team-high 23:30 per game. His time on ice is also the 8th highest mark in the entire Finnish Elite League. Playing heavy minutes against grown men in Finland, Vaakanainen has shown glimpses of his potential to someday be a smooth-skating lockdown defender at the NHL level.

Nice little write-up- kid is logging some big minutes.

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

Also, I assume most of you have seen this from Bruins site:

Urho Update

When the Bruins selected Urho Vaakanainen with the 18th pick of the 2017 NHL Entry Draft, many fan's were unfamiliar with the slick-skating Finn. In the 2016-17 season, Vaakanainen was one of the most youthful players in the Finnish Elite League at just 17 years old. The youngster played quality minutes for JYP over 41 regular season games and 14 playoff matches.
This season, playing with SaiPa, Vaakanainen has been a steady presence on the back end. Now 18, the defenseman leads his team in plus/minus (plus-6) and plays a team-high 23:30 per game. His time on ice is also the 8th highest mark in the entire Finnish Elite League. Playing heavy minutes against grown men in Finland, Vaakanainen has shown glimpses of his potential to someday be a smooth-skating lockdown defender at the NHL level.

Nice little write-up- kid is logging some big minutes.

Sounds like a perfect potential partner for McAvoy.

 

[Mick Riddleton]

Sounds like a perfect potential partner for McAvoy.

Yes that is the type of player Mac needs, a Chara type, stay at home guy that can cover up and support him and be defensive. Luckily we have a few guys like Urho, Arnesson, Carlo, Johansson, Ryan Lindgren, Zboril maybe even Sherman, sheer numbers are going be handy.

 

[JP Nolan]

Sounds like a perfect potential partner for McAvoy.

I would say they have four or five long term potential partners for McAVOY....Louzan, Lindgren, Carlo, Zboril, even Krug

Team needs another great center to build around.

 

[ODAAT]

. Well said.

Most us fancy ourselves as experts or scouts after seeing a kid two or three times. And we don't really know what's going on inside his head or whether he's feeling under the weather.

I've made the mistake often in pre judging talent and can't see what the coaches see. Then I'm surprised that the guy can actually play. Or, the reverse.

But speed cannot be taught. Likewise agility and hand to eye coordination. If the skill is there it's up to the individual and coaching staff to maximize that ability. Some take longer than others.

I don`t need to see a kid 2 or 3 times, all I need is 2 or 3 shifts

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

I'm not sure I am following you?

What it seems that you are saying to me is that scouting is an inexact science at best, even when you watch the players...so it's OK for you to just say whatever you like about players and see if it sticks?

Two wrongs make a right sort of thing?

You can do whatever you want, but don't expect people to take what you say seriously when you haven't even watched the players in question.

Call me crazy, but when I want an opinion about an OHL guy, I am going to ask Dom, who sees hundreds of games. When I want an opinion about a USHL kid, I will ask Kirk, who sees them play.


ps It doesn't surprise me that you don't like Heinen as much as the others. His game is very subtle, the kind of thing you have to see to appreciate.

never once said I don't like heinen... but I'm not sure you read my posts when you quote them. did say I don't see him having a huge impact here longterm. if I need to spell it out that means I think theres a finite number of kids that will have a huge impact here and he doesn't have a spot near the top of my list

maybe that means I think a few other players have more chance to have an impact here the next few years... lets look at the list and see where we disagree

ill put Bergeron number 1... signed to a contract... our team mvp imho... and yes I can say that after watching him

ill put marchand number 2... a guy that I used to say had a more limited ceiling based on watching him. most fans here said he had a more limited ceiling. ironically I had him in my lineup that second year and everyone told me I was crazy. I was an early supporter but then I thought his ceiling was lower. we cant always get it right when we rely on our own ability to scout.

ill say david krecji is more likely to have an impact here... his ntc is a big reason... his contract...

david backes seams in for the long haul with his contract

david pastrnak should maybe be in the top 2 for this list... very talented guy

so now I have 5 spots filled and theres typically only a maximum of 9 spots for 'impact' guys... see where I'm headed here?

if I like Bjork and debrusk {maybe you don't?} then I have 7 out of 9 spots filled and the opportunity for the other guys has been reduced significantly

we are basically short a rh shot guy to play the right side {unless Bjork plays rw} and we are basically short a 3rd line center {unless backes plays center} do you see where I'm going here?

so I will give the 3rd line center job to one of federic/donato/jfk/studnicka

the other 3 of these guys will join cehlerik/senshyn and mr heinen scrambling for a chair when the music stops playing. see where I'm going here?

does this mean I don't like any of these guys? or I cant appreciate subtle play?

ummm... I'm sure you haven't read any of this so I will stop here and let you argue more with me for the sake of the argument.

I try to follow the game... follow the team... see where the team is headed... see where the game is headed... and yeah I will share my analysis because its pretty damn accurate most the time and if someone wants to throw something in my face about whether I'm right when I say seguin will be traded... or whether I'm right when I say boychuk and lucic will be traded... or whether I'm right when I say I think iginla will join the team again... I'm ok with not being right 100% of the time because the % I do get right is about the best ive ever seen anyone get right and I'm willing to debate other peoples predictions right back to them too if that's what they want

we all get it right sometimes and we most certainly do all get it wrong as well

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

I'm not sure I am following you?

What it seems that you are saying to me is that scouting is an inexact science at best, even when you watch the players...so it's OK for you to just say whatever you like about players and see if it sticks?

Two wrongs make a right sort of thing?

You can do whatever you want, but don't expect people to take what you say seriously when you haven't even watched the players in question.

Call me crazy, but when I want an opinion about an OHL guy, I am going to ask Dom, who sees hundreds of games. When I want an opinion about a USHL kid, I will ask Kirk, who sees them play.


ps It doesn't surprise me that you don't like Heinen as much as the others. His game is very subtle, the kind of thing you have to see to appreciate.

just because what I say could be taken as a slam against guys like dom and kirk {both of whom I love being part of our community} let me say I look at the hockey news future watch every year... look at red line scouting guide... buy the mcleins magazine with their future projections... the forecaster... hell I even was a participant twice here in hf own attempt to list the top 50 prospects... and of course I check out buttons and mckenzies lists over at tsn

so... I get access to a lot of people making educated attempts at ranking the kids and their chances to be impact nhl players...

I feel kirk and dom both do as good a job as any of these other industry groups...

I watch all 31 teams now and their success rate of turning their picks into impact players and I feel both kirk and dom are as good as these teams are

and at the end of the day I see NO ONE that gets it right more than 50% of the time. I'm sorry, but even when we watch the kids play its still more likely to get it wrong than get it right unless that kid happens to be so uber skilled that even an idiot like me can identify him as a top 5 pick.

and yeah... I'm pretty damn good at predicting the top 5 picks in a draft... well above 80% and I do that without having to watch them play.

move beyond the top 5 picks and none of us are above 50%

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

maybe another way I can put this that wont hurt anyones feelings is to switch the genre and ask everyone how much do they trust a movie review?

we all know theres people paid to go watch movies in advance... and give their opinion if its worth us watching or not.

do you have a movie reviewer you treat as god? is there any movie reviewer that can tell you that a movie is great or sucks and you just 100% buy into the review?

personally... I try to read as many reviews as possible because theres not a single reviewer ive ever found that has the same taste I do. I might agree 60-70% of the time with certain reviewers... maybe agree 80-90% of their main points about a movie... but at the end of the day just watching a movie or listening to a song or laughing at comedy doesn't make any of these other people experts more than you are about what you like.

hockey is a game... a contest... not exactly the same thing as entertainment. in hockey you got to put the puck in the other net more often then it gets put into your net. but the scheme and game plan how to accomplish this feat has many moving parts. what makes a player valuable to a team might be very subjective based on what that team wants/needs

some players like Crosby and McDavid are so damn good that the team just builds around them... but most players have to fit a piece in the puzzle. so people like me who pride ourselves on being puzzle makers can actually have as much/or more success predicting future hockey success as those people that rely strictly on watching a player and noticing their subtle skills.

subtle skills can be an asset
size can be an asset
speed can be an asset
a great shot can be an asset

things we see with our eyes... might be assets... but weve all seen guys with size fail to make it... guys with speed fail to make it... guys with a great shot fail to make it.

making it... is more about fitting the puzzle than it is about having one or two skills that are an asset.

of course... having those skills means you are more likely to fit the puzzle. so I'm always happy when our prospects have a skill that we can get excited about.

I just also want to see that kid moving in a direction that seams more likely they will fit the puzzle

 

[GloryDaze4877]

never once said I don't like heinen... but I'm not sure you read my posts when you quote them. did say I don't see him having a huge impact here longterm. if I need to spell it out that means I think theres a finite number of kids that will have a huge impact here and he doesn't have a spot near the top of my list

maybe that means I think a few other players have more chance to have an impact here the next few years... lets look at the list and see where we disagree

ill put Bergeron number 1... signed to a contract... our team mvp imho... and yes I can say that after watching him

ill put marchand number 2... a guy that I used to say had a more limited ceiling based on watching him. most fans here said he had a more limited ceiling. ironically I had him in my lineup that second year and everyone told me I was crazy. I was an early supporter but then I thought his ceiling was lower. we cant always get it right when we rely on our own ability to scout.

ill say david krecji is more likely to have an impact here... his ntc is a big reason... his contract...

david backes seams in for the long haul with his contract

david pastrnak should maybe be in the top 2 for this list... very talented guy

so now I have 5 spots filled and theres typically only a maximum of 9 spots for 'impact' guys... see where I'm headed here?

if I like Bjork and debrusk {maybe you don't?} then I have 7 out of 9 spots filled and the opportunity for the other guys has been reduced significantly

we are basically short a rh shot guy to play the right side {unless Bjork plays rw} and we are basically short a 3rd line center {unless backes plays center} do you see where I'm going here?

so I will give the 3rd line center job to one of federic/donato/jfk/studnicka

the other 3 of these guys will join cehlerik/senshyn and mr heinen scrambling for a chair when the music stops playing. see where I'm going here?

does this mean I don't like any of these guys? or I cant appreciate subtle play?

ummm... I'm sure you haven't read any of this so I will stop here and let you argue more with me for the sake of the argument.

I try to follow the game... follow the team... see where the team is headed... see where the game is headed... and yeah I will share my analysis because its pretty damn accurate most the time and if someone wants to throw something in my face about whether I'm right when I say seguin will be traded... or whether I'm right when I say boychuk and lucic will be traded... or whether I'm right when I say I think iginla will join the team again... I'm ok with not being right 100% of the time because the % I do get right is about the best ive ever seen anyone get right and I'm willing to debate other peoples predictions right back to them too if that's what they want

we all get it right sometimes and we most certainly do all get it wrong as well

Nice, funny, but inaccurate.

I think I probably speak for a lot of people here when I say that I do read your posts (seriously)...right up to the point where I black out, due to sheer boredom induced by the novella length thoughts you subject us to, when a quarter of the verbiage would suffice (tongue in cheek, sorta)

Your words:

"I still am predicting that Bjork/debrusk have the best odds of the current kid wingers to make an impact here long term. I like cehlerik chances to become number 3 on my list but still want to see him do it at nhl... and I'm leaving the 4th spot for senshyn over heinen despite heinens success this year."

Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but you are welcome to your opinions. If you throw enough shit at the wall, some of it is going to stick.



ps Another very good game from Heinen last night. I'm sure he doesn't mind being #5 on your list behind Senyshyn in the slightest.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

Nice, funny, but inaccurate.

I think I probably speak for a lot of people here when I say that I do read your posts (seriously)...right up to the point where I black out, due to sheer boredom induced by the novella length thoughts you subject us to, when a quarter of the verbiage would suffice (tongue in cheek, sorta)

Your words:

"I still am predicting that Bjork/debrusk have the best odds of the current kid wingers to make an impact here long term. I like cehlerik chances to become number 3 on my list but still want to see him do it at nhl... and I'm leaving the 4th spot for senshyn over heinen despite heinens success this year."

Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but you are welcome to your opinions. If you throw enough **** at the wall, some of it is going to stick.



ps Another very good game from Heinen last night. I'm sure he doesn't mind being #5 on your list behind Senyshyn in the slightest.

definitely would be strange if he minded that... we agree on one thing

 

[774EVER]

Young Leafs lead the pack in Core Four Under-24 ranking - Article - TSN Sorry if this was already discussed - the Bruins are ranked 6th (By GMs) when it comes to the Core under 24.

Scoop: Since 2010, Pastrnak is one of only three players (McDavid and Steven Stamkos) with a 70-point season under his belt before his 21st birthday. McAvoy is an elite talent. But what’s equally impressive about Boston’s entry is the group that didn’t make the cut in Jake DeBrusk, Danton Heinen and Trent Frederic.

 

[JoeIsAStud]

Nice, funny, but inaccurate.

I think I probably speak for a lot of people here when I say that I do read your posts (seriously)...right up to the point where I black out, due to sheer boredom induced by the novella length thoughts you subject us to, when a quarter of the verbiage would suffice (tongue in cheek, sorta)

Your words:

"I still am predicting that Bjork/debrusk have the best odds of the current kid wingers to make an impact here long term. I like cehlerik chances to become number 3 on my list but still want to see him do it at nhl... and I'm leaving the 4th spot for senshyn over heinen despite heinens success this year."

Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but you are welcome to your opinions. If you throw enough **** at the wall, some of it is going to stick.



ps Another very good game from Heinen last night. I'm sure he doesn't mind being #5 on your list behind Senyshyn in the slightest.

I will say this, even if DeBrusk and Bjork end up becoming mainstays, and the team were to decide that Heinen doesn't fit their long term top6/9 core. I would rather trade him after he puts up a nice 20 goal 45 point season as a 22 year old who is very solid in all 3 zones and kills penalties, than trade him right now as someone who still has a "prospect" label on him

I've said this before there might be a point where the Bruins have too many players and not enough positions for all the young players, and they are foced to move some, unless you somehow think a Heinen or Cehlerick, or say a d-man like Zboril or Lauzon have peak value right now

 

[BruinDust]

Young Leafs lead the pack in Core Four Under-24 ranking - Article - TSN Sorry if this was already discussed - the Bruins are ranked 6th (By GMs) when it comes to the Core under 24.

Scoop: Since 2010, Pastrnak is one of only three players (McDavid and Steven Stamkos) with a 70-point season under his belt before his 21st birthday. McAvoy is an elite talent. But what’s equally impressive about Boston’s entry is the group that didn’t make the cut in Jake DeBrusk, Danton Heinen and Trent Frederic.

Wait a minute. I was told on this board the only way to find elite level young talent was to tear it all down, stink for a few years, and amass some Top 10 picks.

How is it even possible for the Bruins to be ranked this high?

 

[PlayMakers]

Anybody who doesn't think Vatrano is fast should watch the last 4:30 of the Kings game. Explodes off the face-off to intercept a puck won back to Doughty (first step quickness) then outraces everyone the length of the ice to get to the loose puck for a shot on goal. Brick comments on both his quickness and speed at the next break and shows the play again.

Also, if he's credited with the tip on the 2nd goal of the game he'll be on an 18 goal pace while playing less than 10 minutes a game.

 

[PB37]

I thought the same thing when that play happened. I just don't get how people think Vatrano is slow.

 

[BigBadBruin]

Minnesota is playing Harvard tonight on TSN5

 

[Beesfan]

Anybody who doesn't think Vatrano is fast should watch the last 4:30 of the Kings game. Explodes off the face-off to intercept a puck won back to Doughty (first step quickness) then outraces everyone the length of the ice to get to the loose puck for a shot on goal. Brick comments on both his quickness and speed at the next break and shows the play again.

Also, if he's credited with the tip on the 2nd goal of the game he'll be on an 18 goal pace while playing less than 10 minutes a game.

Vatrano is definitely not slow. He might be our fastest forward behind Marchand, Pastrnak, Kuraly and Bjork. His flaw in my opinion is that he lacks skill. He is below average on stickhandling, playmaking and hockey sense. I never see him beat a guy one on one, I never see him slow the play down and I only rarely see him set up a teammate with a great pass. His biggest assets are his speed, and getting his shot off quickly.

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

Minnesota is playing Harvard tonight on TSN5

Minnesota: Ryan Lindgren

Harvard: Ryan Donato and Wiley Sherman

 

[Over the volcano]

 

[PlayMakers]

Vatrano is definitely not slow. He might be our fastest forward behind Marchand, Pastrnak, Kuraly and Bjork. His flaw in my opinion is that he lacks skill. He is below average on stickhandling, playmaking and hockey sense. I never see him beat a guy one on one, I never see him slow the play down and I only rarely see him set up a teammate with a great pass. His biggest assets are his speed, and getting his shot off quickly.

I'd agree with most of that.

Although, getting open for shots and putting yourself in position to tip pucks requires timing and hockey sense. I'd also say that his quick release, his ability to get both velocity and accuracy are examples of "skill."

But overall I agree. He's got speed, tenacity and a great shot. He does not have great 1on1 skills or playmaking ability.

 

[mikelvl]

I don`t need to see a kid 2 or 3 times, all I need is 2 or 3 shifts

I'm pretty sure that's how 'Brent Hughes' based his opinion of Heinen on.

 

[Mick Riddleton]

I'm pretty sure that's how 'Brent Hughes' based his opinion of Heinen on.

yeah lol, how is that working out. Said it before and say it again he is the most polished all around prospect we have.

 

[Gator Mike]

Frederic, Donato, Hughes, and Studnicka all scored tonight.