Pre-Game Talk: Bring on the canucks! (schedule added post#1)

[WTFetus]

Scott Hannan has the 3rd worst PDO of any defensemen (who has played 20 games this season) in the LEAGUE.
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Isn't PDO supposed to regress to the mean in the long-run (1000+ PDO means good luck ie Jordan Eberle, <1000 means bad luck). Doesn't that imply that he's had bad puck luck this season?

 

[hockeyball]

Yeah, that's what other people were arguing too. We were saying it's a small sample size and that by the eye-test, he didn't look like he could sustain it. Then there was the advanced stats group people who said like he's only going to get better, his teammates are shooting at a low percentage as is he, he's only going to rack up more points from here on out, etc.

As I recall that was just Jux. I try not to use advanced stats to predict things too much, only to judge what has already happened.

 

[murdock1116]

to those laughing at advanced stats. nothing is 100% perfect, but by using those stats and comparing them etc etc. you can at least have an opinion that isnt hyperbole like most around here. id rather have some kind of fact that i can base my opinion around.

and those advanced stats have proven quite a bit in the past.

Its not that I question advanced stats. I think they are very useful.

But like I mentioned early, what comes first "winning or advanced stats"? To point to a team that wins a stanley cup and say "there it is, the writing on the wall, they won because they had advanced stats" totally overlooks the idea that maybe they have advanced stats BECAUSE they won.

If we're going to look at stats all day, we might as well just crown the Stanley Cup champ right now.

To quote Chris Berman, "That's why they play the games!"

 

[hockeyball]

Isn't PDO supposed to regress to the mean in the long-run (1000+ PDO means good luck ie Jordan Eberle, <1000 means bad luck). Doesn't that imply that he's had bad puck luck this season?

It means you have to be something special to NOT regress to the mean, which he is, in a bad way.

 

[WTFetus]

As I recall that was just Jux. I try not to use advanced stats to predict things too much, only to judge what has already happened.

Oh yeah, I wasn't trying to call anyone specific out. I don't remember the names, I just remember there was a poster or two who were very adamant about him improving.

 

[WTFetus]

It means you have to be something special to NOT regress to the mean, which he is, in a bad way.

Not that I disagree that Tennyson > Hannan, but it's hard to regress to the mean in a 48 game season.

 

[murdock1116]

Scott Hannan has the 3rd worst PDO of any defensemen (who has played 20 games this season) in the LEAGUE.

He is ranked 174th our of 210 in the league in Corsi for defensemen who have played 20 games.

He has the 4th worst +- on/60 of any defensemen int he league who has played 20 games.

The guy is absolutely terrible.

What has he done with just the Sharks though?

 

[do0glas]

Advanced stats are great and you can get useful information from it, it's the whole basing the opinion of said player entirely around advanced stats that I don't agree with.

It's already easy to get blinded by the regular stats that are tracked, advanced stats only multiplies that issue, in my opinion at least.

nothing wrong with that opinion.

in the end results matter. W/L columns are the only lasting effect. but when determining the impact on the team from a single player there really isnt a better place to start.

but for instance, it cant really track how well a player breaks out of his own zone. the only thing you can go off of is defensive zone starts plus shot or chance differential unless you are tracking that individual all game...which no one on here does.

so really it just builds a much more solid foundation to form an opinion. though i do agree there is an over-reliance at times.

but what else do we have besides a A.) biased eye test B.) uneducated (no actual hockey experience) C. good eye test, but flawed (cant see every play)

or the plus/minus gurus i guess.

 

[Evincar]

to those laughing at advanced stats. nothing is 100% perfect, but by using those stats and comparing them etc etc. you can at least have an opinion that isnt hyperbole like most around here. id rather have some kind of fact that i can base my opinion around.

and those advanced stats have proven quite a bit in the past.

Advanced stats are nice but they have only been around for a few years.

 

[murdock1116]

nothing wrong with that opinion.

in the end results matter. W/L columns are the only lasting effect. but when determining the impact on the team from a single player there really isnt a better place to start.

but for instance, it cant really track how well a player breaks out of his own zone. the only thing you can go off of is defensive zone starts plus shot or chance differential unless you are tracking that individual all game...which no one on here does.

so really it just builds a much more solid foundation to form an opinion. though i do agree there is an over-reliance at times.

but what else do we have besides a A.) biased eye test B.) uneducated (no actual hockey experience) C. good eye test, but flawed (cant see every play)

or the plus/minus gurus i guess.

Just enjoy the game and not worry about stats?

 

[Turrican*]

All of Alberta will be cheering for you guys.

 

[do0glas]

Just enjoy the game and not worry about stats?

i do very much enjoy the game.

i dont look at stats until AFTER

but hey, you can keep saying the stat heads are just bitter and mad every time a hockey game comes on. when in fact we tend to have a clearer view of the team and dont ask for tmac to be fired in a new thread after every loss

 

[hockeyball]

Hannan was 196 out of 237 for last season in +-on/60 too

207 our of 237 in GA ON/60 last season.

I literally can't find a stat that makes him look even adequate. The guy is just bad across the board. Not like this is a surprise, there's is a reason he has bounced around the league like a hot potato.

I know you guys want to find positives about our own players, but look elsewhere because with Hannan there are none to be had. The most positive thing Hannan can do for us is not play.

 

[Mattb124]

James Murphy really hates the Sharks.

http://espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs/2013/story/_/id/9222132/experts-picks

That is funny.

While the Canucks are a solid team, we are 3-0 against them this year and Schneider played in each game. I am a bit surprised the Sharks don't get more love regarding the match-up.

 

[Mattb124]

Hannan was 196 out of 237 for last season in +-on/60 too

207 our of 237 in GA ON/60 last season.

I literally can't find a stat that makes him look even adequate. The guy is just bad across the board. Not like this is a surprise, there's is a reason he has bounced around the league like a hot potato.

I know you guys want to find positives about our own players, but look elsewhere because with Hannan there are none to be had. The most positive thing Hannan can do for us is not play.

I'll give you that stat: The good news is Hannan is 3rd from the bottom for Sharks D in the +- column with a -3 (Demers is -4 and Braun is -5).

The bad news is Hannan has only played 4 games.

 

[murdock1116]

That is funny.

While the Canucks are a solid team, we are 3-0 against them this year and Schneider played in each game. I am a bit surprised the Sharks don't get more love regarding the match-up.

I'm surprised no one picked the Isles for an upset! Then again then Pens are beloved by everyone.

 

[DrFeelgood]

Hannan was 196 out of 237 for last season in +-on/60 too

207 our of 237 in GA ON/60 last season.

I literally can't find a stat that makes him look even adequate. The guy is just bad across the board. Not like this is a surprise, there's is a reason he has bounced around the league like a hot potato.

I know you guys want to find positives about our own players, but look elsewhere because with Hannan there are none to be had. The most positive thing Hannan can do for us is not play.

I can tell you this without your fancy advanced stats P), Hannan is too slow for today's NHL. He doesn't even pass the eyeball test. He's been beaten pretty handily in most games this season and is only effective as a shot blocker/body on the ice.

 

[WTFetus]

I can tell you this without your fancy advanced stats P), Hannan is too slow for today's NHL. He doesn't even pass the eyeball test. He's been beaten pretty handily in most games this season and is only effective as a shot blocker/body on the ice.

In the games he played with the Sharks, he's actually looked faster than Irwin.

 

[DrFeelgood]

In the games he played with the Sharks, he's actually looked faster than Irwin.

Irwin is better defensively/positionally, IMO, and offers much more in the way of offense than Hannan does.

 

[hockeyball]

Irwin is better defensively/positionally, IMO, and offers much more in the way of offense than Hannan does.

You could have made this post with less words:

Irwin is better. Offers offense.

 

[WTFetus]

Irwin is better defensively/positionally, IMO, and offers much more in the way of offense than Hannan does.

Yeah, I'm not arguing against that. Just saying that he's looked faster than Irwin since you said Hannan was too slow to play in the NHL.

 

[do0glas]

Yeah, I'm not arguing against that. Just saying that he's looked faster than Irwin since you said Hannan was too slow to play in the NHL.

i would argue that foot speed isnt the indicator here. though he may have been arguing that.

hes just not good enough with the puck on his own half boards or behind his net. he will likely try to put the puck up the boards and out of the zone, but a decent team will jam it right down our throats almost every time.

away from home he is likely going to post even worse numbers just due to getting mismatches all night.

my biggest problem isnt hannan. every number you can find on the guy says he is a liability, weve literally watched the same errors with murray/stuart. yet stuart/hannan will be rolled out game 1 against one of the faster teams in the league. it boggles my mind. if the sedins get matched up against them...and they will, they will have a field day. maybe it makes sense to have tennyson around the atmosphere for a couple of games, keep his nerves from being too jangled etc. but he has to feature if there is no demers.

why would you replace your PMD with a stay at home, when you have a serviceable (and potentially great) pmd that is riding a hot start sitting in the press box?

 

[domon]

James Murphy really hates the Sharks.

http://espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs/2013/story/_/id/9222132/experts-picks

"Experts"

 

[LadyStanley]

brodiebrazilCSN 3:16pm via TweetDeck

Just annonced that CSN will air all 1st round games between #sjsharks - #canucks in Northern California.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Not really related since advanced stats can be useful, but didn't advanced stats show that Irwin was actually underperforming (low on-ice shooting percentage, etc) and that he was going to improve? I remember a lot of people arguing for that too. Obviously that didn't happen.

Not that he was going to improve his overall play, but that his scoring would increase slightly, which it did. Don't put words in my mouth.

Isn't PDO supposed to regress to the mean in the long-run (1000+ PDO means good luck ie Jordan Eberle, <1000 means bad luck). Doesn't that imply that he's had bad puck luck this season?

Hannan has had bad luck in the sense that more pucks go in the net per shot against when Hannan is on the ice than average, but the fact is that Hannan yields too many shots against to even kindly call him a defensive defenseman.