Brad Treliving is doing a great job.

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Listing player by player comparison is worthless. On paper, the roster seems the same but statistically speaking this team is defensively worse by every metric.

Last year's team vs this year's team:

Shots on goal allowed: 7th best in the league vs 17th in the league this year

xGA - 9th in the league vs 19th

High Danger Chances Allowed - 17th in the league vs 23rd in the league

Shot attempts allowed - 14th vs 18th

PK - 12th vs 18th

Last year's team won by an average margin of 2.3 goals per game, this year's team wins by an average of 1.2 goals per game.

For a group of people who decry the use of statistics and relies on the eye test, I don't understand how you watch games from season to season and consistently misdagnose problems. The misdiganosing of the team's issues is what led to signings like John Klingberg and Ryan Reaves.
Are you comparing last years year end stat positions vs where the team is at right now in this season? Last year by December 4 the team was 23rd in xGA and 18th in SA. Last year at this point they were 15th CF% while this year they are 16th.
By all accounts the team is underperforming but doesn’t look to be noticeably worse
 
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Should punt the year tbh.

His history shows he does most of his work in the off-season.

We shouldn't have to punt this year but the team is a pretty big disappointment thus far. That said Treliving will have about $28 million in cap space plus a full draft class to work with (assuming no deadline trades) come this summer. I'm okay with giving him until then plus seeing how the 24-25 season plays out.
 
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The situation is such that I'm not sure what Treveling can do. He is probably bound by Shanahan dictates. I think this team loses first round unless Woll goes ape and then something big happens. I have always wondered why these NHL insiders do such dumb things and then asked "Is it on purpose?" Do we have people influenced by the NHL anti Leaf Dept running this team? I'd say some of Trevelings moves aren't his own. He won't get full control until it implodes come playoffs.
 
If Tanev doesn't cost a first then he is a very good short term answer for this season. He would fit in perfectly with Rielly to play all the tough minutes and it allows Brodie to play in a better situation.

Then with the Klingberg/Tavev money off the books you can decide if Tanev is worth bringing back short term or if you want to go after Pesce or someone else in the offseason.

Or trade one of the 4 if you can to help out if it all goes up in flames again
IMO whoever your trading for should be a player who you plan on resigning
 
Are you just purposefully obtuse? Right now they are 5/6 which is why I said this wasn’t what Tre had in mind when he signed them. But this is what you need when the majority of the cap is given to 3 players.

What are you saying? That 7/8D should be signed cheap? This is not a new concept... they need fully buriable contracts and it has nothing to do with how the cap is distributed.
 
Fans would turn on Zadorov in a second here. He doesn't clear the net like he should, he is prone to horrible giveaways and blown assignments and is no more than a 5/6.

For a 3rd and a 5th it might have been still worth it if BT was also a quiring someone to play Top 4.

This forum has a nasty habit of believing a player is more than they are simply because they're big. Go to the Trade Talk subforum and look at the Tanner Jeannot thread. The first 20 or so pages is people believing he's Eric Lindros, the last 20 or so are those same people pretending they knew the trade was a huge overpay from the beginning.
 
It's moments like these that remind me that no-one should take any of this stuff too seriously because, ultimately, anonymous posters have no real accountability. Can anyone imagine if the following was published under someone's real name?

- On the day Treliving was hired: "Lol. Back to the clown show it is I guess."
- 10 games into the season: "I've kept a very open mind about Treliving."
- After an epic 100+ posts in this thread uniformly criticising Treliving and defending Dubas: "an honest, proper evaluation".
You're right that anonymous posters have no real accountability, which has led to you feeling free to misrepresent my statements. If you'd actually read my statements, you'd know that "back to the clown show it is I guess" was more a statement against MLSE and Shanahan than Treliving. As I said at the time... "From the sounds of how this went down, MLSE stalled, they decided they wanted Dubas back, Dubas wanted to come back, and then Shanny started making bad decisions on emotion, and now we're in a huge mess at a critical time and have no plan. We're going back to the clown show era." For decades, this franchise made stupid, reactionary, short-sighted, and counterproductive moves. The clown show era. Then Shanahan came in, and things stabilized a bit. Then Dubas became GM, and we finally had a competent GM making logical, well-reasoned moves with a good balance between present and future, and we had some of the best Leaf teams in modern history through some of the most difficult situations in modern history. Shanahan wanted him back. He wanted to come back. And then Shanahan had a bad dream one day, and everything started falling apart. And then we made a quick nepotism hire from the old boys club. That was massively, massively concerning, and very reminiscent of the era we'd finally escaped.

But I gave Treliving a chance. I liked that he didn't make a rash move of the core, and liked the Holmberg re-signing. I liked that he got Matthews re-signed and defended the term and cap hit he was given. I liked some of the prospect re-signings and the deep depth signings were fine. Then he paid a lot for Kampf, and I was concerned, but he had been a good player for us and I trusted that he had a plan for how that would fit in. And then his first real move was overpaying a sub-replacement player in his late 30s for 3 years... Not great... And then he overpaid one of the worst defensive defensemen in the league, who had been breaking down for the past couple years... Also not great... I didn't really see the fit for him in the existing team, but surely Treliving was well-informed on his status, and had a bigger plan for the defense and would insulate him... And then he didn't do anything else there... And then we took our goalie to arbitration... And then he signed two more forwards that are quite bad defensively to fit into the middle six. Which created a problematic scenario, because we'd just invested a lot of money into Kampf, and then gave him nowhere to play and nobody to play with. We took away from our defensive and PK strengths and didn't really improve anywhere. And then we traded away quality depth that was one of the last remaining players Kampf could have played effectively with. And we didn't get Nylander signed...

But I still gave Treliving the benefit of the doubt and waited to see how things played out as the games got underway. And then pretty much every concern and prediction played out exactly as expected. We didn't have configurations that worked in the forward or defensive groups. Reaves was a complete disaster, and one of the worst players I've seen in my life. Klingberg was a disaster and got walked every game. Bertuzzi and Domi didn't really seem to fit anywhere or mesh with anyone, at least until Robertson came along for Domi. Our 4th line was unplayable. We picked up some gimmick points in OT and SO, but our underlying metrics tanked. We were bad defensively. We were bad on the PK. We were getting outplayed most games.

I haven't had "100+ posts in the thread uniformly criticizing Treliving", but if all that doesn't represent a good time to waive a red flag on certain decisions, I'm not sure when you think is. I still hope that he can turn things around, but this start for him has largely been a disaster. Mind-bogglingly, in response to honest, proper evaluations of him and his decisions, we have people adamantly defending objectively bad moves and blaming everything on a GM that isn't even here anymore, who left Treliving a golden situation and opportunity, and all of the players actually doing good things.
 
Are you comparing last years year end stat positions vs where the team is at right now in this season? Last year by December 4 the team was 23rd in xGA and 18th in SA.
That's not true. Last year on December 4th, Leafs had the 9th best xGA/60 and 5th best SA/60 - and through similar defensive injuries. This year, we're 22nd in xGA/60 and 24th in SA/60. We were also 8th in xGF% compared to 18th this year, and +13 in goal differential, despite also having goalie injuries, compared to -1 this year.
 
are you talking about McDavid? it's a team sport. i remember his goal got us th the 2nd round and one of those years a recovering alcoholic kneed him in the head
I remember that goal - brilliant end to end rush and a fantastic shot.

Or was it's blind dump towards the net from a bad angle that happened to deflect in off a defenceman's skate?

I don't know what the 'recovering alcoholic' has to do with anything, other than as a deliberate misdirection. Yes, he was accidentally injured and missed virtually the whole series.
 
It's moments like these that remind me that no-one should take any of this stuff too seriously because, ultimately, anonymous posters have no real accountability. Can anyone imagine if the following was published under someone's real name?

- On the day Treliving was hired: "Lol. Back to the clown show it is I guess."
- 10 games into the season: "I've kept a very open mind about Treliving."
- After an epic 100+ posts in this thread uniformly criticising Treliving and defending Dubas: "an honest, proper evaluation".

I've been out of the media game for decades so maybe that's why this stuff makes me laugh.
You just know that if someone has to constantly tell you they're always right, they aren't.
 
Are you comparing last years year end stat positions vs where the team is at right now in this season? Last year by December 4 the team was 23rd in xGA and 18th in SA. Last year at this point they were 15th CF% while this year they are 16th.
By all accounts the team is underperforming but doesn’t look to be noticeably worse
The big underperformers so far this year seem to be Marner, Matthews, and Samsanov, none of whom were Tre acquisitions.
 
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and ritchie cost asset just to move him out...
He was moved with a conditional 3rd that could be exchanged for a 2nd years down the road, for somebody that would cost at least a 3rd on their own, so hardly a significant cost, and not sure what that has to do with what we were discussing anyway.
17 goal for 11 against 3 goal 10 assist... rate of 51 pts +24 in 82 game pace... not my definition of being bad.
He got fed PP time and benefitted from an insanely lucky OISH% he's never come close to, and his goalies bailing him out with a 0.955 SV% in a small sample, but his underlying play still sucked, and he was still bleeding chances, and he was dropped to the 3rd pairing and scratched for the beginning of the playoffs.
2022 was close of a 50-50 series
2023 was a complete domination by tampa...
In 2022, we were the better team of skaters, but Vasilevsky was better than Campbell, and some horrific officiating handed it to Tampa.
In 2023, it was a super close 50/50 series, that had big swings in momentum. Tampa often came out strong and then faded as we started taking over, and I guess some people have let the early leads skew their perception of the overall games. Tampa scored some opportunistic goals and then Toronto scored some opportunistic goals, and somehow, only Toronto's get dismissed.
 
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That's not true. Last year on December 4th, Leafs had the 9th best xGA/60 and 5th best SA/60 - and through similar defensive injuries. This year, we're 22nd in xGA/60 and 24th in SA/60. We were also 8th in xGF% compared to 18th this year, and +13 in goal differential, despite also having goalie injuries, compared to -1 this year.
That appears to be true! I bunged those numbers as they were cumulative, my bad. Leafs were missing Muzzin and the Rielly a bit as well so similarly the D was pretty depleted. So no question last year the team was performing better as a whole significantly defensively. Without an upgrade I wouldn’t expect this seasons defensive numbers to climb a lot.
The xGF and goal differential I’d certainly hope will improve substantially, otherwise there is a problem on the horizon.
 
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The big underperformers so far this year seem to be Marner, Matthews, and Samsanov, none of whom were Tre acquisitions.

Samsanov was re-signed by Treliving

Matthews and Marner are helping to carry this team even if they are underperforming.

Reaves and Klingberg exist...

Domi and Bertuzzi are better now, but I'd still say Matthews and Marner have been better.

Other underperforming players: Kampf (Tre) and McCabe (both have looked better recently)
 
You know what the League should really do. Just have the cap counted for game time lineup.
Like as long as the game time lineup is within the Cap, who cares if the team go over the Cap with their complete roster. As long as the team is not losing money and is in the black.
The league let teams do that anyway with all these cap mental gymnastics with LTIR or this or that....then come TDL, retention and then when playoffs start, there is no Cap.
Why can't the league just do that from the start.
 
He was moved with a conditional 3rd that could be exchanged for a 2nd years down the road, for somebody that would cost at least a 3rd on their own, so hardly a significant cost, and not sure what that has to do with what we were discussing anyway.
if you really think than a 6th dman from a bad team would cost a 2nd pick even if its in 2 year... wake up his value was probably close for what he was traded this season... a 4th pick

He got fed PP time and benefitted from an insanely lucky OISH% he's never come close to, and his goalies bailing him out with a 0.955 SV% in a small sample, but his underlying play still sucked, and he was still bleeding chances, and he was dropped to the 3rd pairing and scratched for the beginning of the playoffs.
klinberg had best production at 5v5/60 played amount minneaota D on both regular season and playoff
In 2022, we were the better team of skaters, but Vasilevsky was better than Campbell, and some horrific officiating handed it to Tampa.
In 2023, it was a super close 50/50 series, that had big swings in momentum. Tampa often came out strong and then faded as we started taking over, and I guess some people have let the early leads skew their perception of the overall games. Tampa scored some opportunistic goals and then Toronto scored some opportunistic goals, and somehow, only Toronto's get dismissed.

2023 19.96 vs 18.6
.
if you removing first top game who was 1 blowout from each team. expected goal for 13, 96 (tor) vs 17, 96 (tb) over 1 expected goal every game in favor of tampa

2022 expected goal 22,81 vs 22,19

gm 1 blow leafs
gm 2 blowout tb
gm 3 blowout leafs
gm 4 blowout tb

last 3 after both blowout 9,04( toronto) vs 9,64 ( tampa)

number are not in your side
 
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You're right that anonymous posters have no real accountability, which has led to you feeling free to misrepresent my statements. If you'd actually read my statements, you'd know that "back to the clown show it is I guess" was more a statement against MLSE and Shanahan than Treliving. As I said at the time... "From the sounds of how this went down, MLSE stalled, they decided they wanted Dubas back, Dubas wanted to come back, and then Shanny started making bad decisions on emotion, and now we're in a huge mess at a critical time and have no plan. We're going back to the clown show era." For decades, this franchise made stupid, reactionary, short-sighted, and counterproductive moves. The clown show era. Then Shanahan came in, and things stabilized a bit. Then Dubas became GM, and we finally had a competent GM making logical, well-reasoned moves with a good balance between present and future, and we had some of the best Leaf teams in modern history through some of the most difficult situations in modern history. Shanahan wanted him back. He wanted to come back. And then Shanahan had a bad dream one day, and everything started falling apart. And then we made a quick nepotism hire from the old boys club. That was massively, massively concerning, and very reminiscent of the era we'd finally escaped.

But I gave Treliving a chance. I liked that he didn't make a rash move of the core, and liked the Holmberg re-signing. I liked that he got Matthews re-signed and defended the term and cap hit he was given. I liked some of the prospect re-signings and the deep depth signings were fine. Then he paid a lot for Kampf, and I was concerned, but he had been a good player for us and I trusted that he had a plan for how that would fit in. And then his first real move was overpaying a sub-replacement player in his late 30s for 3 years... Not great... And then he overpaid one of the worst defensive defensemen in the league, who had been breaking down for the past couple years... Also not great... I didn't really see the fit for him in the existing team, but surely Treliving was well-informed on his status, and had a bigger plan for the defense and would insulate him... And then he didn't do anything else there... And then we took our goalie to arbitration... And then he signed two more forwards that are quite bad defensively to fit into the middle six. Which created a problematic scenario, because we'd just invested a lot of money into Kampf, and then gave him nowhere to play and nobody to play with. We took away from our defensive and PK strengths and didn't really improve anywhere. And then we traded away quality depth that was one of the last remaining players Kampf could have played effectively with. And we didn't get Nylander signed...

But I still gave Treliving the benefit of the doubt and waited to see how things played out as the games got underway. And then pretty much every concern and prediction played out exactly as expected. We didn't have configurations that worked in the forward or defensive groups. Reaves was a complete disaster, and one of the worst players I've seen in my life. Klingberg was a disaster and got walked every game. Bertuzzi and Domi didn't really seem to fit anywhere or mesh with anyone, at least until Robertson came along for Domi. Our 4th line was unplayable. We picked up some gimmick points in OT and SO, but our underlying metrics tanked. We were bad defensively. We were bad on the PK. We were getting outplayed most games.

I haven't had "100+ posts in the thread uniformly criticizing Treliving", but if all that doesn't represent a good time to waive a red flag on certain decisions, I'm not sure when you think is. I still hope that he can turn things around, but this start for him has largely been a disaster. Mind-bogglingly, in response to honest, proper evaluations of him and his decisions, we have people adamantly defending objectively bad moves and blaming everything on a GM that isn't even here anymore, who left Treliving a golden situation and opportunity, and all of the players actually doing good things.
Thanks for the reply. That really is quite the screed!

Feels like a rite of passage given I know many of my favourite veteran posters/mods have been through the trenches and survived interminable disputes over the years. I've only had time for a quick read-through, I'm afraid, but at a glance these phrases caught my eye:

"Shanny started making bad decisions on emotion" and "then Shanahan had a bad dream one day"

Intriguing! As always, you sound pretty sure of yourself. May I ask if you have any direct knowledge of Shanahan's emotional state when he fired Dubas? Or, even a report you can link to that supports this view?
 
The league won’t do this. No advantage for American teams.

Bettman disapproves.
1. All teams will be in the same situation as it applies all across the League.
2. Teams been doing that already with their creative accounting like LTIR or accumulating cap space for TDL then no cap for playoffs.
 
Samsanov was re-signed by Treliving

Matthews and Marner are helping to carry this team even if they are underperforming.

Reaves and Klingberg exist...

Domi and Bertuzzi are better now, but I'd still say Matthews and Marner have been better.

Other underperforming players: Kampf (Tre) and McCabe (both have looked better recently)
None of which disproves of even disputes my point.
 
1. All teams will be in the same situation as it applies all across the League.
2. Teams been doing that already with their creative accounting like LTIR or accumulating cap space for TDL then no cap for playoffs.
It might be a matter of optics (playoff teams only comprise half the league and are closer to all being on the same level).
 

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