Blues Trade Proposals Part 4

[Blue Goose]

I think the reason I am so focused on Stastny is because it's not everyday a center of his caliber comes into play. You can pretty much go through anyone's roster, and the only players who are an upgrade over our #1C are all untouchables. I just think it is much harder to find a #1 playmaking center than it is to find a LHD to play with Pietrangelo.

Considering that there would be a strong likelihood that he would sign his next contract in STL, and when you consider that his salary and pending 2014 UFA status might make the other teams a little gun-shy, I think we could potentially offer COL the best deal.

Stastny hasn't really been a clear cut #1 center the last couple seasons. I just am not sold that he would automatically be what we need.

But Backes has? As B91 said, we won't be able to acquire a "clear cut #1C" - the hope is that we can find someone else's expendable 2C, with the idea that they would be the 1C on our team - which Stastny most certainly would be, allowing Backes to perfectly slide down to his more-fitting 2C spot.

 

[Hooliganx3]

If we were a cap team what would you say about the proposal? Because it just sounds like everyone is playing the safe route because we are a budget team.

I'm a huge Berglund fan so I am pretty biased. I just like how Berglund is one of our most dedicated players in improving his game. Pocketnines posted an argue about Stewart not long go. Where Stewart was playing cards and Berglund called him over to watch some game footage to discuss how they can improve their play in the future. I just have a hard time trading a player like that for a 10 point gain if it is even that.

 

[Captain Creampuff]

I'm a huge Berglund fan so I am pretty biased. I just like how Berglund is one of our most dedicated players in improving his game. Pocketnines posted an argue about Stewart not long go. Where Stewart was playing cards and Berglund called him over to watch some game footage to discuss how they can improve their play in the future. I just have a hard time trading a player like that for a 10 point gain if it is even that.

I love Bergy too. I just would love to make the team better in anyway. But I understand where other fans come from because we've developed such a love for some of our young players.

 

[GrandPapillon*]

I'm a huge Berglund fan so I am pretty biased. I just like how Berglund is one of our most dedicated players in improving his game. Pocketnines posted an argue about Stewart not long go. Where Stewart was playing cards and Berglund called him over to watch some game footage to discuss how they can improve their play in the future. I just have a hard time trading a player like that for a 10 point gain if it is even that.

Until they slow down/if they slow down, I have no desire to break up the Stewart Berglund Perron line. They are showing the ability to be a dominant scoring line with some real chemistry.

 

[OCTA8ON*]

Until they slow down/if they slow down, I have no desire to break up the Stewart Berglund Perron line. They are showing the ability to be a dominant scoring line with some real chemistry.

Yeah, that's cuz that line has actual skill. Sorry to say this, but Oshie-Backes-Schwartz are more about playing "responsibly" and all that.

 

[sh724]

He won't be available next year is the point. And even if he does stay an Av he would be 3rd line C again playing with even worse wingers.

Again you are talking about his contract. His contract won't go down anything and he can't change his past years stats so why keep spewing the same stuff over and over again. I don't care what points someone has put up, Stastny is far beyond a better player than Berglund.

So you want to trade Berglund and a 1st for some one playing on their teams 3rd line? if they are paying him that much to play on the third line it should take quite a bit less than begy and a 1st. If he is playing on COL 3rd line then he is no longer a 1st line player and if he is such a valuable commodity and a true number one center some other team would have already picked him up. He has not been a 1st line center in a couple years and the Blues are not in a position to be taking that big of a risk. Reclamation projects are cheap to acquire have little value and are not expected to produce a lot but you hope they will procude. You do not go after a reclamation project to be your #1 center.

The reason why I look at his contract and his point totals is because those are the most relevant things. Of course his contract wont go down and his contract drastically hurts his value the Blues are budget team you have to look at a players contract before you try to acquire him. His past years stats are important because you cannot pick a random number and say that is how many points he will get because its possible. If that is how players value is going to be rated then we shouldn't trade Berglund because he could put up 100 points next year with the Blues. Will he? Maybe because any random number less than Gretzky is possible. His value is based on what he has done and what he has done is average 58 points per 82 games for the past 2+ years. Paying some one $6.6 mil is way too much for only 58 points. You want to make a trade for a true first line center, and people say Backes is not he is only there for his defense (but over the past 2+ years Backes is averaging .2 points per 82 games less), so then people must want Stastny for his offense but it is only 10 more points than Bergy.

Everyone knows statsny is a better player, but since stats and contract are not relevant. What does he do that makes him worth $4 mil a year more than berglund?

 

[sh724]

If we were a cap team what would you say about the proposal? Because it just sounds like everyone is playing the safe route because we are a budget team.

The game is not played in a bubble you cannot take out very important variables, well sure you can online but it is not realistic to do. If your going to throw out variables then any trade is possible and plausible.

People bring up the budget because that is probably the biggest variables for the Blues. Budget teams look at their budget the same way cap teams look at the cap and that is they cannot go over it at all it is the max ceiling possible to spend on players. If the Blues pay statsny $6.6 mil to put up 58 points then any other member of the team that puts up similar numbers is going to expect similar salary. So now you have to give Backes and Oshie an extra 2 mil a year (obviously their contracts are not up its just an example) and now for 10 more points a year instead of the 4 mil gap from Bergy to stats its now costing you 8 mil more a year. Petro had 51 points last year as a defensman so just based on his offense your going to pay him 6 mil a year then when you factor in defense your paying 8 mil a year just for him. Players look at what the team is paying their teamates and take that into account when they are looking for a new contract. Even the leagues arbitrators look at it.

 

[Captain Creampuff]

Everyone knows statsny is a better player, but since stats and contract are not relevant. What does he do that makes him worth $4 mil a year more than berglund?

Generel hockey skills. He's only 27 years old and has already showed he can hit 79 points, which only Andy McDonald could do on the Ducks who went to the conference finals and won a cup those 2 years. I have complete faith that with talented wingers Stas could easily hit 60 points but even push for 70 and 80 again. Something we haven't had on this team since Brad Boyes in 07-08. He put up 57 points on a terrible Avs team on the 3rd line. Berglund's highest point season is only 52 playing with Perron and Oshie.

 

[sh724]

Generel hockey skills. He's only 27 years old and has already showed he can hit 79 points, which only Andy McDonald could do on the Ducks who went to the conference finals and won a cup those 2 years. I have complete faith that with talented wingers Stas could easily hit 60 points but even push for 70 and 80 again. Something we haven't had on this team since Brad Boyes in 07-08. He put up 57 points on a terrible Avs team on the 3rd line. Berglund's highest point season is only 52 playing with Perron and Oshie.

Except you said you dont care about the points but if he put up and 60 points is only 13 more than Berglund for 4 million dollars. Its only 2.2 more points than backes for 2 million dollars

 

[Captain Creampuff]

Except you said you dont care about the points but if he put up and 60 points is only 13 more than Berglund for 4 million dollars. Its only 2.2 more points than backes for 2 million dollars

4 million dollars for one more year then get him on a cheaper contract? Yes because like I said, if he can put up 53 and 57 points on a failing team on the 3rd line for 2 seasons, he has more 70 point seasons than he has 50 point seasons, when did the drop off begin? When Stewart got traded here and was left without a winger to play with. His so called declining season still tops Berglund's best season.

Stas' PPG ratio through his career is .875 it absolutely demolishes anyone else on our team including Andy McDonald with a .722

Berglund's PPG ratio is .52

I can without a doubt put on this team Stas would shine. Perron, Stastny, and Stewart would be a line to awe at.

 

[Blue Goose]

If the Blues pay statsny $6.6 mil to put up 58 points then any other member of the team that puts up similar numbers is going to expect similar salary. So now you have to give Backes and Oshie an extra 2 mil a year (obviously their contracts are not up its just an example) and now for 10 more points a year instead of the 4 mil gap from Bergy to stats its now costing you 8 mil more a year. Petro had 51 points last year as a defensman so just based on his offense your going to pay him 6 mil a year then when you factor in defense your paying 8 mil a year just for him. Players look at what the team is paying their teamates and take that into account when they are looking for a new contract. Even the leagues arbitrators look at it.

I see what you're trying to say, but this argument would only make sense if the BLUES were the ones who gave Stastny the $6.6M contract, and they didn't. Do you really think those other forwards would expect Army to give them a salary equal to what another GM on another team with a different salary structure originally gave Stastny four years ago? We take on ONE YEAR of an existing contract, and then when Stastny becomes a UFA in 2014, we let Army decide how much he's worth. It's not like he'd be an RFA that would need a Qualifying Offer. Almost everyone agrees he's not going to get $6.6M, and I think even Stastny should realize that - unless he plays AMAZING in STL.

4 million dollars for one more year then get him on a cheaper contract? Yes because like I said, if he can put up 53 and 57 points on a failing team on the 3rd line for 2 seasons, he has more 70 point seasons than he has 50 point seasons, when did the drop off begin? When Stewart got traded here and was left without a winger to play with. His so called declining season still tops Berglund's best season.

Stas' PPG ratio through his career is .875 it absolutely demolishes anyone else on our team including Andy McDonald with a .722

Berglund's PPG ratio is .52

I can without a doubt put on this team Stas would shine. Perron, Stastny, and Stewart would be a line to awe at.

Thank you for digging up the numbers to support the argument, and make me feel better about where I stand. Seems to me like we're always going to have people on the pro-Stastny and anti-Stastny sides of this debate, with each using a set of statistics/opinions to prove their respective point. At this point, it might be time to move on.

PS. So, apparently Tallinder has a "lower body injury". Son of a...

 

[PocketNines]

We saw it again tonight, the team has enough offensive depth to not freak out if one line isn't producing (which is going to happen). Eleven more games til the deadline and it would be fantastic if the Blues could build on that LA disaster and turn the season around based on it. Way too early to know but if they can win both games on the weekend we might be seeing the start of something. Still believe if the team can get a Giordano for two of: Cole, Rattie, 1st they have to pull that trigger.

 

[PocketNines]

On Stastny, I'm less in the anti-Stastny camp than in the "don't pay very much for him in trade and frankly wait a year" camp.

 

[Captain Creampuff]

PS. So, apparently Tallinder has a "lower body injury". Son of a...

When I saw this on the Main Board I thought it might be a ploy that he is "injured" but is actually being traded.

 

[sh724]

4 million dollars for one more year then get him on a cheaper contract? Yes because like I said, if he can put up 53 and 57 points on a failing team on the 3rd line for 2 seasons, he has more 70 point seasons than he has 50 point seasons, when did the drop off begin? When Stewart got traded here and was left without a winger to play with. His so called declining season still tops Berglund's best season.

Stas' PPG ratio through his career is .875 it absolutely demolishes anyone else on our team including Andy McDonald with a .722

Berglund's PPG ratio is .52

I can without a doubt put on this team Stas would shine. Perron, Stastny, and Stewart would be a line to awe at.

Why are you trying to prove he is a better player by using points when you said points do not matter?

So you expect him to come here put up a career year and then take a pay cut? he was signed for $6.6 mil so he was probably asking for over $7 at the time while having seasons in the 70 points range playing for the team that drafted him and had been playing with for 3 years. If he puts up 70 points again here and factoring in salaries are higher now then they were then and then when you consider he has zero loyalty to STL having only played here 1 year, why would he take a pay cut?

If he could produce so much better with better linemates then why is he on the 3rd line? If he is a true first line player he would not have dropped to third on the depth chart, he is falling on a team that is falling. If he was still so good but of so little value to the Avs why havent they already traded him? If the Blues were good enough to have a 1st line center playing on the third line (everything else being the same) every one would be pissed if they did not trade a center for a partner for Petro. If Stastny was still a legit first line center he would be worth a hell of a lot more than Bergy and a first and COL would be able to fill some pretty big holes by trading him. But in actuality he is no longer a first line center, there are probably at least 15 teams in the league that are in need of a true #1 center and not one of them has taken a chance of Statsny.

Players regress and get worse. You are picking out his best years and saying we should trade him because of those, but those numbers are three years old. If it was guaranteed he would put up 70 points a year here then its a great idea to trade berglund and a first for him but there is a much greater chance of him not hitting 60+ points here then there is that he puts up 70+. Your also not taking in to consideration Col plays a much more open offensive system when he put up those points. The Blues play (at least are suppose to play) a defensive first system. The Blues went from being top 10 in the league in goals to one of the lowest scoring teams in the league when they started playing defense first. To assume a player who's offense is declining to have a career year playing in a defense first system in a completely new environment is quite the assumption to make.

You can compare his numbers to Berglund all you want, I already agreed with you that Stastny is the better player.

When we traded Brad Boyes his career PPG was just about the same as Amac's current career PPG. Which player would you rather have A mac now (not injured of course) or Brad Boyes getting 40 points a year then? Boyes in his first 4 years hit 65+ points 3 times but after that he has never had more than 42. While Stastny is a much better player than Boyes I bring him up to show how other players have started their careers really good then fell off and never recovered no matter what team they were own or who their line mates were. There are a lot more examples of players like Boyes than players who fell off and then turned there career completely around after being traded.

 

[sh724]

I see what you're trying to say, but this argument would only make sense if the BLUES were the ones who gave Stastny the $6.6M contract, and they didn't. Do you really think those other forwards would expect Army to give them a salary equal to what another GM on another team with a different salary structure originally gave Stastny four years ago? We take on ONE YEAR of an existing contract, and then when Stastny becomes a UFA in 2014, we let Army decide how much he's worth. It's not like he'd be an RFA that would need a Qualifying Offer. Almost everyone agrees he's not going to get $6.6M, and I think even Stastny should realize that - unless he plays AMAZING in STL.

Do you think a player cares what GM signed the contract? If the Blues trade for him that means they agree to pay him the salary in his contract. If the Blues did not think he was worth his contract why would they spend money on him when they could spend the money on people who are actually worth it.

I do not think he is worth 6.6 and my whole point is he is not worth Berglund and a 1st. I do not have a problem with trying to acquire Stastny but the proposed trade gives up too much for him. The chances of him playing amazing in STL are very slim but Blueman91 disagrees and think he will play amazing in STL and be back at 70+ points. If that happens he will not be taking less money which you point out. He thinks it is a risk worth taking right now, and I disagree and think if we are going to give up that much for him then we should wait and see if he can still put up 70+ if he does not put up similar numbers then his value will drop even more. And we can either try for him next year at the trade deadline or try to resign him after next season when the Blues would be able to get him at a reasonable contract that fits his production.

 

[sh724]

On Stastny, I'm less in the anti-Stastny camp than in the "don't pay very much for him in trade and frankly wait a year" camp.

It probably seems like I am anti Stastny right now but I am far from it. I completly agree that there is no reason to trade for him right now unless we are giving up way less than in the proposed trade. If he rebounds next year and proves he is worth Berglund and a 1st then make the deal then or wait and try to sign him. But right now he is not worth Berglund and a 1st.

 

[PocketNines]

It probably seems like I am anti Stastny right now but I am far from it. I completly agree that there is no reason to trade for him right now unless we are giving up way less than in the proposed trade. If he rebounds next year and proves he is worth Berglund and a 1st then make the deal then or wait and try to sign him. But right now he is not worth Berglund and a 1st.

Yeah a post above mine posited pro-Stastny and anti-Stastny groups in the discussion. I just think if the Blues were going to trade for him I wouldn't want them to give up that much. Frankly I hope he stays put in Colorado this year and then potentially he's the kind of guy you rent at the deadline. This time next year it'll be fairly clear what kind of UFA money he'll be due so that can be a factor in the decision. He'll be in the big enough contract ballpark that you don't want to gamble if you don't have to.

 

[Captain Creampuff]

Why are you trying to prove he is a better player by using points when you said points do not matter?

So you expect him to come here put up a career year and then take a pay cut? he was signed for $6.6 mil so he was probably asking for over $7 at the time while having seasons in the 70 points range playing for the team that drafted him and had been playing with for 3 years. If he puts up 70 points again here and factoring in salaries are higher now then they were then and then when you consider he has zero loyalty to STL having only played here 1 year, why would he take a pay cut?

If he could produce so much better with better linemates then why is he on the 3rd line? If he is a true first line player he would not have dropped to third on the depth chart, he is falling on a team that is falling. If he was still so good but of so little value to the Avs why havent they already traded him? If the Blues were good enough to have a 1st line center playing on the third line (everything else being the same) every one would be pissed if they did not trade a center for a partner for Petro. If Stastny was still a legit first line center he would be worth a hell of a lot more than Bergy and a first and COL would be able to fill some pretty big holes by trading him. But in actuality he is no longer a first line center, there are probably at least 15 teams in the league that are in need of a true #1 center and not one of them has taken a chance of Statsny.

Players regress and get worse. You are picking out his best years and saying we should trade him because of those, but those numbers are three years old. If it was guaranteed he would put up 70 points a year here then its a great idea to trade berglund and a first for him but there is a much greater chance of him not hitting 60+ points here then there is that he puts up 70+. Your also not taking in to consideration Col plays a much more open offensive system when he put up those points. The Blues play (at least are suppose to play) a defensive first system. The Blues went from being top 10 in the league in goals to one of the lowest scoring teams in the league when they started playing defense first. To assume a player who's offense is declining to have a career year playing in a defense first system in a completely new environment is quite the assumption to make.

You can compare his numbers to Berglund all you want, I already agreed with you that Stastny is the better player.

When we traded Brad Boyes his career PPG was just about the same as Amac's current career PPG. Which player would you rather have A mac now (not injured of course) or Brad Boyes getting 40 points a year then? Boyes in his first 4 years hit 65+ points 3 times but after that he has never had more than 42. While Stastny is a much better player than Boyes I bring him up to show how other players have started their careers really good then fell off and never recovered no matter what team they were own or who their line mates were. There are a lot more examples of players like Boyes than players who fell off and then turned there career completely around after being traded.

When did I say points didn't matter? I might have said comparing points of one year between Berglund and Stastny didn't matter and that's true. However I don't know why I would bring up that points don't matter when bringing up a player like Stastny that has put up points a player of ours would dream of.

Okay and if he puts up that kind of numbers you are telling me he wouldn't deserve the money and wouldn't cut another player from our "core" for a 70 point player? Stupid statement there.

Did I not explain in the post that Stewart left and his play started to decline. The Avs were bad and switched up lines and decided to keep O'Reilly at 2nd C. That's like saying, why is Steen playing 3rd line C? Why is McDonald on the 3rd line? Why is Tarasenko on the 3rd line? Last couple of years their wingers were so bad you couldn't tell the 2nd from the 4th line, hell right now their wingers can't even be matched to ours other than Landeskog and Parenteau who they just acquired during the off-season.

That's like saying Selanne was done because of how he played in Colorado. Just because a highly skilled player such as Stas has 2 bad seasons does not mean you should count him out for his career. 78 points your rookie year then 71 in 66 games is nothing to be overlooked. You would be a fool to think he wouldn't be the best player on this team, because right now Chris Stewart is our best forward and Stas is better than Stew no questions asked. Please can you explain to me how there is a much better chance he won't even hit 60? This is one of the silliest things I've ever heard, he's not 35 years old and about to retire. I don't expect Stastny to be a physical force but just because Berglund is big, doesn't mean he uses his body like he should. It's not like Stastny would be a liability defensively either. Just because he doesn't throw his body around doesn't mean he doesn't know how to backcheck.

Boyes is a different player. It takes high hockey IQ to become a playmaker, you have to have a good shot to be a goalscorer. While Stastny made his team better, Brad Boyes was a product of teammates such as Andy McDonald, Paul Kariya, and Keith Tkachuk. And while he was in Boston he was playing with Joe Thornton. Not to mention Stastny had a much better skillset than Boyes to begin with.

 

[Blue Goose]

For the record, I totally can see both sides of this debate. Here's my point:

- Last season, ROR and Stastny were their top 2 C's. Duchene played on the wing on ROR's line.
- When ROR held out, Duchene was moved to C...and excelled in that role.
- Now that ROR is signed, and Duchene is cemented in at C, Stastny slips into the 3C spot and is presumably expendable.
- Stastny did not get demoted to the 3rd line for his struggling production. Technically, he's not even Colorado's "third line Center" at the moment - ROR is, while he works his way back and resumes his role with the team.
- Because of the logjam at center, Colorado WOULD be trying to move Stastny to fill some holes - I agree with that point. In fact, my dream scenario is a 3-team trade in which Calgary gets Berglund, we get Stastny, and Colorado gets JayBo or Giordano (they need a top-line LD partner for EJ). As I mentioned, I prefer using Dags/picks/prospects to fill OUR hole on LD.
- Berglund would be their 3C, with the ability to step into the 2C spot in case of injuries or if Duchene moved back to Wing. Since it would seemingly be a lateral move to trade Stastny for another 3C, you add in the draft pick as extra incentive.
- The sooner ROR works his way back into a top 6 role, which forces Stastny down to the 3rd line, the sooner you would imagine Colorado tries to make the deal - as his production will likely drop, you would imagine there might be some urgency to move him in case his value gets worse. That's where the Blues come in. If COL waits too long to move him after he's stuck on the 3rd line, more teams would get involved thinking his value is less, and the Blues' offer might not be as good as some other offers.

I understand why some would want to wait until next year's deadline to make the move for him, but in all honesty, he likely would have already been moved by then. That's the risk you take with these trades - you have to make the deal when the opportunity presents itself, before it goes away.

I think it's worth taking the risk because I think it will pay off. Just my opinion, that's all. After watching tonight's game, I swear it's as if Berglund KNEW I was talking about dealing him today.

 

[JustOneB4IDie]

Changing the topic, saw this : Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal: If the Oilers are out of the playoff race by the trade deadline, they’ll look to move out people. Ryan Whitney is the most likely to be traded. The Blues could be looking at him with the feeling that he’d be better right now than Ian Cole and Wade Redden. ( didn't mention Russell so I'll add him of course ) I've never been a fan of Ryan Whitney, a frequent scratch this season on an Oiler team that isn't very good on Defense.

Like others, I'd rather see Armstrong go after Gio from Cal and Gary but it would cost more.

 

[PocketNines]

Well Berglund reads the forums, right?

 

[Blue Goose]

Changing the topic, saw this : Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal: If the Oilers are out of the playoff race by the trade deadline, they’ll look to move out people. Ryan Whitney is the most likely to be traded. The Blues could be looking at him with the feeling that he’d be better right now than Ian Cole and Wade Redden. ( didn't mention Russell so I'll add him of course ) I've never been a fan of Ryan Whitney, a frequent scratch this season on an Oiler team that isn't very good on Defense.

Whitney's been available all season, if the healthy scratches are any indication, and no one's jumped on it yet. I think he'll go as a rental at the deadline to a team with injuries on the left side of their D (such as NYR, if Hamrlik doesn't pan out). Personally, I hope we don't go after him - we'd be left with the same hole once the season ended, since I doubt we'd re-sign him.

PS. Thank you, seriously, for changing the topic.

Well Berglund reads the forums, right?

If that's the case, then let me publicly state that Patrik Berglund, a towering Swede molded like a granite statue, is far and away my favorite player on this Blues team...

 

[Captain Creampuff]

Changing the topic, saw this : Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal: If the Oilers are out of the playoff race by the trade deadline, they’ll look to move out people. Ryan Whitney is the most likely to be traded. The Blues could be looking at him with the feeling that he’d be better right now than Ian Cole and Wade Redden. ( didn't mention Russell so I'll add him of course ) I've never been a fan of Ryan Whitney, a frequent scratch this season on an Oiler team that isn't very good on Defense.

Like others, I'd rather see Armstrong go after Gio from Cal and Gary but it would cost more.

Don't think he would be any better than Redden. Enough of these washed up defensemen. I guess Woywitka is really that bad?

 

[PocketNines]

By the way, the risk that someone else trades for Stastny this season is a no-brainer risk for the Blues to take. So what if that happens? You cannot acquire that large a salary when you have no idea how much you're going to have to pay him when his UFA deal hits (and you HAVE to retain him long term if you're trading someone like Berglund to get him). And they wouldn't know. So you give up Berglund now, then Stastny has a big regular season next year, great for the Blues but now you likely have to move another contract from a contributing roster player or let Stastny walk for nothing. And if Stastny has the exact same kind of year he's been having going on several years now (mid-50s), then you've swapped Berglund out for a noticably more expensive and only slightly more productive Berglund (though worse defensively than Berglund).

So much better to wait and take the chance he'll still be on the block next deadline. Colorado still needs time to figure out what it wants to do at center.