Blues Trade Proposals Part 4

[PocketNines]

Rumrokh, good reply. The allegation about being afraid of big contracts struck me as strange. It's not about that, it's about all the moving parts in the equation. One of those moving parts is playoff revenue. This team has to bankroll its own improvement given the realities of the ownership situation. That means getting more and more home playoff dates. A lot of fans, a lot of knowledgeable fans, believe another big-minutes defenseman would make more of an impact come the playoffs (when scoring tends to be opportunistic from all corners of the roster) than another center. Nobody's suggesting the Blues don't need another center for the ideal. To reach the ideal, they do. I don't fault someone for thinking about how that center might arrive on the roster but when it comes as a choice between one or the other I'll pick LHD every time. Is it a choice between one or the other? Right now, yeah, it pretty much is. The reason is the big RFA deals aren't settled. Before the season I had two reservations about keeping Stewart. One was simply on the ice. After a bit of a rough start, Stewart is definitely back to that streaky scoring profile and making an impact. The other was – and there were a number of posts on this – what happens if he has a big contract year and expects a higher and higher salary? The higher the salary, the bigger a risk the contract looks bad if he starts getting comfortable (kinda like Stastny did). Some players need the heat to be motivated, and Stewart might be one of these. Some maybes, but that's the point – lots of moving pieces and it's nowhere near as simplistic as "being afraid of big contracts."

 

[Blue Goose]

Instead of saying pro-Stastny and anti-Stastny, I should have clarified and said pro-"trading for Stastny now" and anti-"trading for Stastny now". Again, I see both sides of the argument, and the healthy debate is what brings me back to this site. But I'm not going to get too worked up over it...

In your mind, that either isn't a gamble or it's a gamble that's worth serious assets and losing Stastny in a year. Most people here think the fact that the Blues have to be creative precludes the GM from making a big risk like that.

For all we know, Armstrong has seriously looked at upgrading at center and there is just no deal to be made right now, so it's the defenseman he's pursuing. That doesn't mean one need is more serious than another to fans or the team. But in the case of Backes and Berglund, even if those guys aren't great, they're capable scoring line centermen. The Blues don't have anybody who will look good against big, skilled top lines on the left side. Cole has performed really well at times, but he's an inexperienced wildcard. Another gamble. So even if you think the moon of Stastny, you can see that it's not ridiculous to find the center situation workable, while also finding the incompleteness of a top pairing to be pretty serious.

I totally see your point, though I disagree slightly. The argument I've made this whole time is this:

We have holes at 1C and 1LD. Sure, we can win games with Carlo as our 1LD, and we can win games with Backes as our 1C, but we should be looking to upgrade both. But which position is harder to fill? You'd have to think it's 1C. There are 1LD's available all the time, via trades and FA. I know that I, and many others here, were interested in signing Garrison last summer to be our 1LD. But how often do 1C's become available? Not very often at all, which is why they are such a hot commodity (and I truly believe that Stastny can be a 1C).

The overwhelming majority of the teams in this league got their 1C by having a terrible year and drafting one in the first round (many of them in the lottery). The rest have overpaid via UFA (NYR - Richards), or acquired another team's 2C/3C and made them their 1C (Buffalo - Hodgson). I'd rather we didn't overpay for a Weiss-type via UFA, and I don't expect us to tank far enough in the next few years to draft a MacKinnon-type. That leaves the "trade for someone else's 2C/3C". If memory serves, it seemed like several Blues fans wanted to acquire Jordan Staal under this theory, and I think the same applies to Stastny. Given our options, it is my opinion that Paul Stastny is THE best chance that we have for a 1C for the near future.

Furthermore, a 1C gives us the offensive consistency that we've lacked for so many years. As such, the 1C should get PAID. Just look around the league - even the "budget" teams like Ottawa (Spezza) and the Islanders (Tavares) are paying their 1C's more than anyone on the Blues roster. It's a harsh reality that we would need to allocate some serious $$ to the 1C, and I would hope that Stillman realizes this if he wants to build us into a serious contender. Stastny's contract is high, but it would fall in line with the other 1C's in this league. Also, I know many of you are worried about having to overpay him as a UFA, or fear that he'll walk and we'll have wasted the assets that we traded to get him. But one of the things I like about him having one more year on his deal is that if we get him this year and he doesn't fit with the team in the next year or so, then WE can trade him at next year's deadline. And if he DOES fit with the team, then you give him the #1C money that he would conceivably deserve, and we've filled one of our biggest holes (and, one of the hardest holes for ANY team to fill - just ask teams like Calgary and Toronto).

My stance: The LD hole can be filled easier than the 1C hole. I'd prefer to hold on to as many "core" players as possible, but I think we may have to lose one. Of the players mentioned, I think Berglund is the one that is the most easily replaced (not saying he's the worst, just the one that we can replace easiest). Trading Berglund for an LD would fill one hole while opening another larger hole. Trading Berglund to get a 1C would allow us to fill the LD hole with Dags/picks/prospects and retain the rest of the "core".

 

[sh724]

When did I say points didn't matter? I might have said comparing points of one year between Berglund and Stastny didn't matter and that's true. However I don't know why I would bring up that points don't matter when bringing up a player like Stastny that has put up points a player of ours would dream of.

I don't care what points someone has put up, Stastny is far beyond a better player than Berglund.

To which I asked if points do not matter what makes him worth $4 mil a year more and you rattled off a bunch of stats about his point totals.

Okay and if he puts up that kind of numbers you are telling me he wouldn't deserve the money and wouldn't cut another player from our "core" for a 70 point player? Stupid statement there.

I never said that at all, in fact I said in one of my post in this thread we should wait and see if he can put up those numbers again before we spend significant assets and $6.6 mil on him and that we can make the proposed trade next year at the trade deadline of just try to sign him in the offseason.

Did I not explain in the post that Stewart left and his play started to decline. The Avs were bad and switched up lines and decided to keep O'Reilly at 2nd C. That's like saying, why is Steen playing 3rd line C? Why is McDonald on the 3rd line? Why is Tarasenko on the 3rd line? Last couple of years their wingers were so bad you couldn't tell the 2nd from the 4th line, hell right now their wingers can't even be matched to ours other than Landeskog and Parenteau who they just acquired during the off-season.

Actually the scenarios are quite different. Tarasenko is on the third line because he is a rookie that has yet to prove anything. Mcdonald is on the decline and is well past his prime. And Steen is new to playing center. No one is claiming Steen is a first line center or even a second line center for that matter, pretty much everyone would prefer he go back to wing. You are saying Stastny is a #1 center that is playing on the third line where the three players you choose to compare at this point are not 1st line players. If the Avs problems are only because of the wings why would they trade Stastny for a center and not wings? What does the avs wings being bad have to do with Stastny being the 3rd best center on the avs? He is the third best center on one of the worst teams in the league, if he is a true first line center then that would mean the Avs have 3 more 1st line centers than most of the teams in the league and at least 2 more first line centers than any team other than PIT.

That's like saying Selanne was done because of how he played in Colorado. Just because a highly skilled player such as Stas has 2 bad seasons does not mean you should count him out for his career. 78 points your rookie year then 71 in 66 games is nothing to be overlooked. You would be a fool to think he wouldn't be the best player on this team, because right now Chris Stewart is our best forward and Stas is better than Stew no questions asked. Please can you explain to me how there is a much better chance he won't even hit 60? This is one of the silliest things I've ever heard, he's not 35 years old and about to retire. I don't expect Stastny to be a physical force but just because Berglund is big, doesn't mean he uses his body like he should. It's not like Stastny would be a liability defensively either. Just because he doesn't throw his body around doesn't mean he doesn't know how to backcheck.

Selanne had 1 bad year in Colorado, Stastny is now on his 3rd bad year so once again it is a very different comparison. I am not counting him out for his career I have said several times he is still a good player but I do not expect him to continuously hit 70+ points again. I have already explained why I doubt he would hit 60 next year in STL, the Blues have a highly structured defensive system, when he was putting up 70+ points he was playing in a non structured offensive system. When players play in a defense first system there points totals are lower than when they are in an offense first system. I never said anything about his defensive abilities so I am not sure why you are bringing that up.

Boyes is a different player. It takes high hockey IQ to become a playmaker, you have to have a good shot to be a goalscorer. While Stastny made his team better, Brad Boyes was a product of teammates such as Andy McDonald, Paul Kariya, and Keith Tkachuk. And while he was in Boston he was playing with Joe Thornton. Not to mention Stastny had a much better skillset than Boyes to begin with.

Obviously Boyes is a much different player, I was not comparing Boyes to Stastny so I am not sure why you are trying to rebut me by comparing Boyes to Stastny. I brought up Boyes for 2 reasons to show that career PPG is not always a good stat to go by when you see drastic changes in production and the other reason was to show his pattern of offensive production, it is a very similar pattern to Stastny and many other players. Very few players have started off really good fell off for 3 years and then instantly returned to their earlier play. Many more players follow the same pattern as Boyes than that follow the pattern you are proposing Stastny would follow.

 

[Captain Creampuff]

Instead of saying pro-Stastny and anti-Stastny, I should have clarified and said pro-"trading for Stastny now" and anti-"trading for Stastny now". Again, I see both sides of the argument, and the healthy debate is what brings me back to this site. But I'm not going to get too worked up over it...



I totally see your point, though I disagree slightly. The argument I've made this whole time is this:

We have holes at 1C and 1LD. Sure, we can win games with Carlo as our 1LD, and we can win games with Backes as our 1C, but we should be looking to upgrade both. But which position is harder to fill? You'd have to think it's 1C. There are 1LD's available all the time, via trades and FA. I know that I, and many others here, were interested in signing Garrison last summer to be our 1LD. But how often do 1C's become available? Not very often at all, which is why they are such a hot commodity (and I truly believe that Stastny can be a 1C).

The overwhelming majority of the teams in this league got their 1C by having a terrible year and drafting one in the first round (many of them in the lottery). The rest have overpaid via UFA (NYR - Richards), or acquired another team's 2C/3C and made them their 1C (Buffalo - Hodgson). I'd rather we didn't overpay for a Weiss-type via UFA, and I don't expect us to tank far enough in the next few years to draft a MacKinnon-type. That leaves the "trade for someone else's 2C/3C". If memory serves, it seemed like several Blues fans wanted to acquire Jordan Staal under this theory, and I think the same applies to Stastny. Given our options, it is my opinion that Paul Stastny is THE best chance that we have for a 1C for the near future.

Furthermore, a 1C gives us the offensive consistency that we've lacked for so many years. As such, the 1C should get PAID. Just look around the league - even the "budget" teams like Ottawa (Spezza) and the Islanders (Tavares) are paying their 1C's more than anyone on the Blues roster. It's a harsh reality that we would need to allocate some serious $$ to the 1C, and I would hope that Stillman realizes this if he wants to build us into a serious contender. Stastny's contract is high, but it would fall in line with the other 1C's in this league. Also, I know many of you are worried about having to overpay him as a UFA, or fear that he'll walk and we'll have wasted the assets that we traded to get him. But one of the things I like about him having one more year on his deal is that if we get him this year and he doesn't fit with the team in the next year or so, then WE can trade him at next year's deadline. And if he DOES fit with the team, then you give him the #1C money that he would conceivably deserve, and we've filled one of our biggest holes (and, one of the hardest holes for ANY team to fill - just ask teams like Calgary and Toronto).

My stance: The LD hole can be filled easier than the 1C hole. I'd prefer to hold on to as many "core" players as possible, but I think we may have to lose one. Of the players mentioned, I think Berglund is the one that is the most easily replaced (not saying he's the worst, just the one that we can replace easiest). Trading Berglund for an LD would fill one hole while opening another larger hole. Trading Berglund to get a 1C would allow us to fill the LD hole with Dags/picks/prospects and retain the rest of the "core".

Thank you for posting this as it is my exact thinking. I also apologize for my attitude towards our other fans, love you and we are all here for the same reason, to see our boys bring back the cup to St. Louis. It's not that I am pro Stastny or anti-LHD. I just felt like goose said, a #1C is much more difficult to fill than the LHD position. Didn't mean to lash out on anyone just frustrating having to repeat myself when I completely understand where the other side of the argument stands.

 

[rumrokh]

Thank you for posting this as it is my exact thinking. I also apologize for my attitude towards our other fans, love you and we are all here for the same reason, to see our boys bring back the cup to St. Louis. It's not that I am pro Stastny or anti-LHD. I just felt like goose said, a #1C is much more difficult to fill than the LHD position. Didn't mean to lash out on anyone just frustrating having to repeat myself when I completely understand where the other side of the argument stands.

You don't have to repeat yourself. Just accept that you don't need to have the argument with every single person who says something with which you disagree. And if the other side of the argument is reasonable enough to you that you understand it, then it seems weird to get so frustrated about it.

For what it's worth, even though I disagree with some things you say, I agree in this case - a #1 center is absolutely a more difficult position to fill. But that's also evidence, in and of itself, that such a player simply may not be available, at least for an affordable price.
Even if we assume that Stastny would absolutely fill that need instead of being a risk, the Avalanche have to be willing to trade him, they have to be willing to trade him to a team that will be in their division next season, and they have to be asking for something reasonable from the Blues.

So it seems like you're describing a series of best-case scenarios and you're willing to give up value based on those assumptions. It's difficult to have productive discourse when you're blasting people for being unrealistic about X or Y Blues player's ability or value while your proposal is fantastical. It seems to me that you're going to get frustrated pretty much every time you pursue that line of discussion.

 

[sh724]

Dreger: 27 year old Carl Soderberg is expected to come to the NHL.

I post this here since we drafted him and traded him to Boston. I think it was for Hanu Toivennen but it might have been for some one else. Part of the reason the Blues traded him was because there were real questions if he would ever come to the NHL. He was one of those guys that wanted a guaranteed roster spots before he would come over. We drafted him 49th overall in 2004 and it looks like he is finally coming over.

Boston has apparently been working behind the scenes with the NHL to make sure they can avoid a waiver situation. I dont know how rights work for European players but Boston still owns his.

On an unrelated note Dreger said 1/2 the teams in the league are looking to add a top 9 forward. That means the market is really thin which makes prices go up.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Soderberg had a really bad eye injury, so when we gave him up, he didn't have much value. If he never got hurt, I doubt we would have traded him. Hope he does well for Boston.

I think Lehtera could definitely be an option. He can play a role similar to Schwartz last season. He'd be here mostly for insurance, but could get some decent minutes if he impresses. An ideal audition for him to prove he deserves a spot for next season.

On the defensive side, if we could be able to get Orpik out of Pittsburgh to play with Shattenkirk, we could be set. Besides the obvious target of Giordano or a similar caliber 2-way defenseman, I think if we just get someone very similar to Jackman, we would be set.

 

[Multimoodia]

On the defensive side, if we could be able to get Orpik out of Pittsburgh to play with Shattenkirk, we could be set. Besides the obvious target of Giordano or a similar caliber 2-way defenseman, I think if we just get someone very similar to Jackman, we would be set.

Having watched Orpik a bit this year...not sure the Blues would want to give up all that much for him. He has fallen off (he is actually slower than he was) and the more stringent penalties against interference have not been his friend.

Orpik from 4 years ago sure, current one...not so much.

 

[Multimoodia]

Also I would like to take this time to sob quietly since Getzlaf is no longer on the market. I know the Blues would never be able to afford him...but that does not make it any more pleasant.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Having watched Orpik a bit this year...not sure the Blues would want to give up all that much for him. He has fallen off (he is actually slower than he was) and the more stringent penalties against interference have not been his friend.

Orpik from 4 years ago sure, current one...not so much.

Agreed. There's a reason why Pittsburgh fans are so willing to unload him in spite of their own relative lack of physicality on the blueline. He's a shell of what he once was.

Despres would be the better target and long-term fit, but he's not ready for 1st pairing responsibilities anymore than Cole.

 

[PocketNines]

Ironically, even though I don't think Stastny is playing like a #1 center now, I don't necessarily think we need a #1 center. We need a scoring line center who can play some defense too. I'm going to speculate that many of you don't see Ryan O'Reilly as a "#1 center" (though there is some debate about where he grows from here). Yet O'Reilly is close to the perfect model of what we'd look for: very young (22), already proven in the NHL, elite defense, 200-foot game, playmaker, not on a Getzlaf contract but a contract closer to Backes.

My point isn't that O'Reilly is the only guy who could fit as a center. The point is that O'Reilly would be an addition that would literally solve that problem but it got solved without acquiring a #1C.

Meanwhile, a top-pair caliber LHD does make a big difference from a 2d/3d pairing LHD who's just a body or got one attribute (blocks lots of shots but isn't physical ala Hainsey, e.g.).

That's the other side of the debate. The need for a third center morphed out of Arnott leaving and Steen not being perfect as a replacement. Sure, who wouldn't want the home run elite C to push Backes and Berglund down a line? But it's more of a want than a need. I say this because we really do have depth in scoring now. The wingers are talented enough that a scoring-line caliber center helps the Blues moves things around to make it a bit more ideal. But we're talking about making something more ideal, not fixing a GAPING hole.

Top-minutes caliber LHD is a GAPING hole that will clearly help the Blues lose in the postseason.

 

[Captain Creampuff]

And how do you expect to acquire O'Reilly? Or think that Avs would want to trade O'Reilly.

 

[PocketNines]

And how do you expect to acquire O'Reilly? Or think that Avs would want to trade O'Reilly.

You totally missed the point. Seriously. Come on. The point isn't that we could acquire O'Reilly (specific player, specific situation) the point is the profile of the player. That's why I elaborated on the type of player he is, to de-emphasize him specifically.

 

[Captain Creampuff]

You totally missed the point. Seriously. Come on. The point isn't that we could acquire O'Reilly (specific player, specific situation) the point is the profile of the player. That's why I elaborated on the type of player he is, to de-emphasize him specifically.

Ok, so who has a 2way center with elite defense up for trade,or would be available with the pieces we have?

 

[PocketNines]

Ok, so who has a 2way center with elite defense up for trade,or would be available with the pieces we have?

What are you missing? The debate in this thread had morphed into need for a center to need for specifically an elite #1C (and then you and one or two others were trying to insist that's what Stastny still is). I made the point that we need a center who fits the Blues more than we need a #1C and ... wait for it ...

THE NEED FOR THAT GUY, WHO COULD BE A RANGE OF CENTER OPTIONS, IS NOT IN THE BALLPARK OF NEED FOR A #1 LHD – CANNOT SAY IT MORE OFTEN OR MORE PLAINLY OR WITH MORE CAPS, SINCE THESE ARE ALL THE CAPS THEY GIVE ME

 

[Captain Creampuff]

If Briere came cheap?

 

[Hooliganx3]

If Briere came cheap?

Briere is not a 2 way center at all. He's currently playing wing in philly.

 

[PocketNines]

I'd give a 2d/3d pick because Briere is a great winger in the playoffs. But how does this address our LHD/C debate?

 

[Captain Creampuff]

Briere is not a 2 way center at all. He's currently playing wing in philly.

Did I say he was? Also just because he is playing the wing means he's never played center?

 

[ExJbeck]

Did I say he was? Also just because he is playing the wing means he's never played center?

Do you wonder why he isn't still playing center?

 

[Captain Creampuff]

Do you wonder why he isn't still playing center?

Because he's not as good as Giroux, Couts, and Schenn and his faceoff % is awful.

 

[EastonBlues22]

If the Blues wanted a guy like Briere at center, they would have just played McDonald there.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

If the Blues wanted a guy like Briere at center, they would have just played McDonald there.

Exactly. Briere wouldn't play center here IMO.

I wish there was a way to get Couturier w/o trading Petro or Shatty.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Briere is only a fit if we move Schwartz or Perron, or if McDonald is injured long-term.

He's is not even close to being a center with us. And I'm a supporter of going after Briere.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Does anyone else think the Arnott signing only makes sense if we get another injury to the current top 9?

I'd rather have Porter-Sobotka-D'Agostini than Sobotka-Arnott-D'Agostini, and I'd rather have Nichol as my 4th line center and not Arnott.