Krug, Leddy,Parayko, and Faulk are the biggest reasons to me why the organization needs to look at more of a rebuild than a retool. Let’s try to project out 2 years from now.
Going into the 2025 season with players and ages:
Leddy34 Faulk33
Krug34 Parayko32
Look at that D. None of them will be better 2 years from now. They will be lucky if they have the same overall skill as they currently have. The odds are not in their favor. I see that roster and say embrace the rebuild. That D will be ugly. The best case scenario is Thomas and Kyrou at 27-28 with a team full of bright, talented, young players.
I edited your post a bit to address a couple points separately.
I just don't see Faulk and Parayko's ages as an issue for 2025/26 and 2026/27. Krug absolutely can't be in the top 4 by then and I'd want Leddy to be either the #2 LD, the #3 LD, or moved prior to 2025/26 (when his contract becomes much easier to move). But that depends on what else is added and/or how prospects develop. But having the right side of the top 4 in their age 32/33 seasons for 2025/26 and 33/34 for 2026/27 doesn't worry me.
Vegas just won the Cup with the following top 4 ages (sorted by TOI per game in the playoffs):
33, 27, 35, 32
If we swap Krug with a LHD still in his mid-late 20s by 2025/26, then the age construction of the blueline is right in line with that. I am much less concerned about the aging curve of D than I am forwards. I'm not saying that you can bank on them sustaining it to 36 and beyond, but age 32 and 33 seasons don't worry me. I don't look at those seasons and think that we should throw 2025/26 or 2026/27 in the garbage if they are in the top 4. I look at them still being damn good vets.
Nick Leddy just had arguably the best season of his career in his age 31 season. Karlsson just had his best season in years in his age 32 season. Petro just had his best season as a Knight at 33. Burns just finished 10th in Norris voting at 37 (first time getting votes in 4 years). The best 4 year stretch of Carlson's career came from 29-32 and the Caps were immediately in shambles when he got hurt this year. Martinez has been very good in Vegas in his age 32-35 seasons. The #2 version of Bouwmeester many of us still fondly remember was in his age 33-36 seasons.
32 and 33 years old doesn't scare me with D.
Faulk will be in his age 34 season in the final year of his contract (2026/27) and I'd hope that we spend some time in the next 3+ years executing a plan for another RD to be ready to start eating into his minutes by then and transitioning Faulk into a 2nd/3rd pair tweener. As we stand right now, Parayko's $6.5M is the only money on the books for the blueline and you have enormous flexibility for the D group to be completely different as Parayko enters his age 34 season.
I think Faulk and Parayko are aged perfectly fine for a team looking to re-enter a competitive window in 2024/25. Any RHD we draft in 2024 (or beyond) absolutely won't be ready to handle their minutes until 2026/27 at the earliest. Frankly, their ages kind of perfectly align with us trying to draft and develop a RHD in the 1st round next year if that is the way we go. With a rising cap and the high likelihood of having numerous cheap forwards in the middle 6, I don't see their $6.5M cap hits as an issue either.
Clearly Army doesn’t share that opinion. If Army had his way Sanheim would be a Blue. He’s a 27 year old 2nd pairing D signed for 8 more years at 6.25 million per season.
I’m glad Krug blocked that deal. Krug has to be sheltered but it’s 4 years vs 8. At least with Krug you know there will be offensive production. Sanheim is good for 30 points.
So many Philly fans were doom and gloom over Sanheim’s contract discussing how they would never be able to give that contract away.
The attempted move by Army actually makes me dread what can happen over the next couple of years. Giving away futures for middle of the road D is the exact opposite of what the Blues need to do even if it’s getting rid of Krug in the process.
I’m actually surprised Army isn’t receiving more scrutiny over that trade. I guess fans mainly focus on Krug leaving and are satisfied.
Last season, Sanheim outproduced Krug at even strength 21-18. Krug's 23 point pace was slightly better than Sanheim's.
Sanheim has outproduced Krug at even strength 51 points to 42 points over the last 2 seasons. Their even strength points per game is identical (.323 points per game) over that stretch.
Sanheim has outproduced Krug at even strength 67 points to 60 points over the last 3 seasons (Krug's entire stint as a Blue). Krug's .34 even strength points per game is a bit better than Sanheim's .31 over that stretch.
Their even strength production is extremely similar, but Krug has had the benefit of getting some of the most offensive and sheltered deployment in the league while Sanheim has consistently been used in a shutdown role.
I think you are very much undervaluing what Sanheim does and very much overstating the production we get from Krug. Krug is a very good PP QB. He's not a good driver of offense at even strength. He has 10 fewer even strength points than Parayko in the 3 years he's been here despite being given every offensive opportunity that Parayko doesn't get.
Sanheim wasn't my preferred target, but it is tough to judge the trade without knowing all of the parts. With that said, I think he is more than a 2nd pair or middle of the road D man. His 67 even strength points in the last 3 years is tied for 46th among NHL D man and his 52 even strength points in the last 2 years is tied for 46th. Tied for 37th and 43rd in even strength goals in that stretch. His offensive production at even strength is that of a low-end top pairing guy and he's been doing it while playing a shutdown role.
This year's performance under Torts is absolutely a cause for concern, but I think you're selling him well short while overselling Krug. The gap between the two at everything but PPQB ability is enormous. And while Sanheim has more term, he is also 5 years younger and carries far less injury concerns.