Blues Trade Proposals 2023-2024

[Spektre]

Realistically, we would be trading him to a team looking to contend that will be looking to give up futures. Player for player trades of guys in their late 20s with limited term are pretty rare, so I don't think you're moving Buch for a replacement or immediate defensive fix.

I think a package in between the Timo Meier package and the Bo Horvat package is a fair target. Much closer to the Meier package if the receiving team is getting 2 playoff runs before his contract expires. A 1st and a legit D prospect should be the core of the deal with the remaining details to be determined by the timing of the deal and the retention and/or bad contract(s) we take back.

Perhaps like a Wallinder + a Detroit first deal.

 

[Reality Czech]

I based that opinion on multiple categories between the two players when at even strength.

Schenn had higher values in shot-attempts against (So both Corsi and Fenwick), expected goals against, actuals shots against, scoring chances against, and high danger shot attempts against. I disregarded offensive contributions (which would be to Schenn's betterment) and only looked at metrics against the Blues with both players on the ice. I also broke down the two players ice time to account for if they were paired together vs. not. Their metrics were putrid together, but Kyrou's improved dramatically when moved away from Schenn and Schenn's stayed closer to the numbers when they're together. The major difference between the two was Kyrou's results were significantly worse than the predictive values while Schenn's were significantly better than his predicative values. So Kyrou was on the ice for more goals against than Schenn. In terms of play, Kyrou was playing better defensively than Schenn was last year but the results went Schenn's way.

Broken Down:

	TOI	Average TOI / TOI per Game	Corsi Against/60	Fenwick Against/60	Shots Against/60	Scoring Chances Against/60	Expected Goals Against/60	High Danger Corsi Against/60	Goals Against
Kyrou With Schenn	397:13	5:01	63.44	48.64	35.65	35.19	4.88	14.5	40
Kyrou Alone	791:34	10:01	57.83	43.96	30.85	32.97	3.16	13.72	54
Schenn Alone	839:49	10:14	63.23	48.44	34.58	35.08	3.37	15.22	43

All metrics are based on Even Strength and the metrics are labelled "/60" to denote a per 60 minutes basis while any other metric without are counts unless labelled otherwise. All numbers are found on Natural Stat Trick. I highlighted the worse number between the two as red.

So yeah, it's not hard to say that Schenn was worse defensively than Kyrou. Neither were good and both need to find a way to improve their overall affect on the game. But, if anything, Kyrou's faults were always under a microscope because his results were worse. Doing any sort of research would point to other players playing, at least, equally bad defensively but just walking away unscathed more frequently. I wouldn't say Kyrou was unlucky, more so others were luckier.

Nice summary but I don't put as much weight in advanced stats as you do, clearly. If Kyrou was better defensively, then coaches would probably play him more often in defensive situations more often, rather than sheltering him. Who would you rather have on the PK, Kyrou or Schenn? If you ask the Blues coaching staff who is better defensively, you honestly think they'll tell you Kyrou over Schenn?

Seems unlikely to me, but people can believe whatever they wanna believe. Not saying either player is great on defense but no amount of fancy numbers is gonna convince me Kyrou is "much better" than Schenn defensively. There are so many other factors that could affect their advanced stats to tell one story or another. I'll accept the fact that both are not great, that's pretty obvious.

 

[Brian39]

Nice summary but I don't put as much weight in advanced stats as you do, clearly. If Kyrou was better defensively, then coaches would probably play him more often in defensive situations more often, rather than sheltering him. Who would you rather have on the PK, Kyrou or Schenn? If you ask the Blues coaching staff who is better defensively, you honestly think they'll tell you Kyrou over Schenn?

Seems unlikely to me, but people can believe whatever they wanna believe. Not saying either player is great on defense but no amount of fancy numbers is gonna convince me Kyrou is "much better" than Schenn defensively. There are so many other factors that could affect their advanced stats to tell one story or another. I'll accept the fact that both are not great, that's pretty obvious.

Not for nothing, but the Blues have generally avoided using Schenn in defensive situations and on the PK. Most of his defensive usage has occurred when we were out of other options.

He was our 4th most used center and 7th most-used forward on the PK last year (in terms of total minutes). His 44 seconds a night on the PK was 9th among forwards and that TOI would have been lower had we not traded two of the 3 centers used ahead of him. In 2021/22 when we had a much more healthy/stable group of forwards, Schenn played 29 seconds a night on the PK, which was 10th among Blues forwards. His total PK minutes was 8th, with his 30 minutes being less than half the minutes of forward #7.

Schenn is appropriately well down the depth chart on our PK.

I agree with your overall point that Schenn is given more defensive responsibility and assignments than Kyrou, but he isn't getting heavy defensive usage and he got brutal results in the modest defensive responsibility he had.

 

[Celtic Note]

Not for nothing, but the Blues have generally avoided using Schenn in defensive situations and on the PK. Most of his defensive usage has occurred when we were out of other options.

He was our 4th most used center and 7th most-used forward on the PK last year (in terms of total minutes). His 44 seconds a night on the PK was 9th among forwards and that TOI would have been lower had we not traded two of the 3 centers used ahead of him. In 2021/22 when we had a much more healthy/stable group of forwards, Schenn played 29 seconds a night on the PK, which was 10th among Blues forwards. His total PK minutes was 8th, with his 30 minutes being less than half the minutes of forward #7.

Schenn is appropriately well down the depth chart on our PK.

I agree with your overall point that Schenn is given more defensive responsibility and assignments than Kyrou, but he isn't getting heavy defensive usage and he got brutal results in the modest defensive responsibility he had.

I would also add that Kyrou is our most offensive talent on the team and it makes perfect sense to use our best offensive player in the offensive zone as much as possible.

 

[Mike Liut]

With Matthews getting 13m, salaries will continue to rise. Buch will be asking for 9-10m. Maybe trading him would be in our best interest while his value is high. If we are out of by the tdl, I’d be open to moving him for a haul.

 

[BlueDream]

With Matthews getting 13m, salaries will continue to rise. Buch will be asking for 9-10m. Maybe trading him would be in our best interest while his value is high. If we are out of by the tdl, I’d be open to moving him for a haul.

The cap is also going to rise along with that though. It’s not going to be a flat cap all those years so we don’t need to panic about that.

 

[Spektre]

The cap is also going to rise along with that though. It’s not going to be a flat cap all those years so we don’t need to panic about that.

Buch will be 30 years old when he begins his next contract. I wouldn't want him signed anywhere close to 9-10 million per year even if the Cap is a 100 million.

 

[Mike Liut]

Buch will be 30 years old when he begins his next contract. I wouldn't want him signed anywhere close to 9-10 million per year even if the Cap is a 100 million.

Do you think 9ish is what he’ll be looking for?

 

[Spektre]

Do you think 9ish is what he’ll be looking for?

I have no idea. If I had to guess he will get 6-7 million per year and closer to 7. Most voices here seem to think the Blues should sign him if they can. I don’t really understand why. He will be 30 years old starting a Schenn type contract.

The NHL is a young man’s game.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

I have no idea. If I had to guess he will get 6-7 million per year and closer to 7

6 million is insultingly low for a point per game winger who’s very good defensively. If he continues to play the way he has the last two years that extension starts with an 8 at a bare minimum. Realistically it’s probably 9+.

 

[Spektre]

6 million is insultingly low for a point per game winger who’s very good defensively. If he continues to play the way he has the last two years that extension starts with an 8 at a bare minimum. Realistically it’s probably 9+.

I would agree if he was 26-27, but 30?

 

[Majorityof1]

I have no idea. If I had to guess he will get 6-7 million per year and closer to 7. Most voices here seem to think the Blues should sign him if they can. I don’t really understand why. He will be 30 years old starting a Schenn type contract.

The NHL is a young man’s game.

Yep. Vegas should have known better than to have had 30 and older players like Stone, Peitrangelo, Marchessault, Martinez. Karlsson etc. I mean they only had 1 player under 26 put up a point in their playoffs last year. Imagine how much better they could have been if they played a bunch of unproven prospects instead.

 

[Spektre]

Yep. Vegas should have known better than to have had 30 and older players like Stone, Peitrangelo, Marchessault, Martinez. Karlsson etc. I mean they only had 1 player under 26 put up a point in their playoffs last year. Imagine how much better they could have been if they played a bunch of unproven prospects instead.

Hells bells, let’s trade everyone under the age of 26, including every prospect, and go all in.

 

[Xerloris]

Yep. Vegas should have known better than to have had 30 and older players like Stone, Peitrangelo, Marchessault, Martinez. Karlsson etc. I mean they only had 1 player under 26 put up a point in their playoffs last year. Imagine how much better they could have been if they played a bunch of unproven prospects instead.

Aww shit here comes the circle jerk. We're rebuilding. not going for a cup. You don't rebuild with as bunch of old f***s.

 

[Majorityof1]

Hells bells, let’s trade everyone under the age of 26, including every prospect, and go all in.

Or....and here is a crazy thought...strike a balance. Don't throw away a defensively solid ppg player cause he is a little older. Those don't grow on trees. IF he wants $9-10M for 8 years and we can't make it work, fine. But just deciding he is too old to sign because he is 30 without knowing potential aav or term is dumb. You will never win if you don't sign good players into their 30s.

 

[Spektre]

Or....and here is a crazy thought...strike a balance. Don't throw away a defensively solid ppg player cause he is a little older. Those don't grow on trees. IF he wants $9-10M for 8 years and we can't make it work, fine. But just deciding he is too old to sign because he is 30 without knowing potential aav or term is dumb. You will never win if you don't sign good players into their 30s.

You have created your own argument.

I never said he has to be traded because he will be 30. I simply gave my opinion that I would never sign him for 9-10 million per season because he will be 30. I am also assuming he gets a contract extension around 6 years or more.

I like the player. I don’t think that type of contract fits with where the organization is currently.

You are certainly entitled to disagree or not like my opinion but you have twisted my opinion into something you vehemently disagree with.

 

[BlueDream]

Yeah the statement that the NHL is a “young man’s game” is actually entirely false.

You of course need some young talent but veteran teams win the Cup every year. That’s why a team like New Jersey was not a Cup threat this past season. They probably need to lose at least one more time, and then maybe they will be in 2025. That seems to be the cycle that happens for most teams.

Buchnevich is the best player on our team currently, and even if we did give him 9+ mil at the age of 30, that still wouldn’t even be among the top 5 worst contracts on our roster.

 

[Mike Liut]

I’d rather trade Buch than sign him to 6 yrs x 9m

 

[Spektre]

Yeah the statement that the NHL is a “young man’s game” is actually entirely false.

You of course need some young talent but veteran teams win the Cup every year. That’s why a team like New Jersey was not a Cup threat this past season. They probably need to lose at least one more time, and then maybe they will be in 2025. That seems to be the cycle that happens for most teams.

Buchnevich is the best player on our team currently, and even if we did give him 9+ mil at the age of 30, that still wouldn’t even be among the top 5 worst contracts on our roster.

Entirely false you say.

The average age of Vegas last year was 29.1.

That makes 5 Cup winners in the last 21 years that the average age wasn’t 26 or 27.

Do you stand by your statement that saying the NHL is a young man’s game is “entirely false”??

 

[Spektre]

Lol

 

[Majorityof1]

Entirely false you say.

The average age of Vegas last year was 29.1.

That makes 5 Cup winners in the last 21 years that the average age wasn’t 26 or 27.

Do you stand by your statement that saying the NHL is a young man’s game is “entirely false”??


View attachment 738599

You do know what the term average means, don't you? If the average age is 27, they have guys younger than 27. to balance those out and reach an average of 27, you also need guys older than 27....which includes 30 year olds.

Nobody is saying you don't want young players. You were saying you don't want any 30 year olds....ok, let's be fair. You were saying you don't want to sign our best player as he is nearing 30. Which seems to indicate you have a flat no 30 year old policy. Unless you'd like to add some nuance to your statements.

 

[BlueDream]

Entirely false you say.

The average age of Vegas last year was 29.1.

That makes 5 Cup winners in the last 21 years that the average age wasn’t 26 or 27.

Do you stand by your statement that saying the NHL is a young man’s game is “entirely false”??


View attachment 738599

Lol

View attachment 738605

I guess you think you’re doing something here but you’re not. An average age of 27 is the most common for Cup teams on that list. And that would be considered a veteran team in the NHL. The super young teams will still average 24-25 usually. And a team having an average age over 30 is almost unheard of these days. So yeah, 27 is right in the middle. I’m not saying it’s old, but you absolutely need several veterans on your roster to be a legitimate contender.

I mean if you are arguing that an average of 27 is a young team then that means you believe the Blues were a young team in 2019. Clearly they were not. That does not mean they didn’t have any young players. But aside from Binnington, all of their best players had lots of NHL experience.

 

[Spektre]

You do know what the term average means, don't you? If the average age is 27, they have guys younger than 27. to balance those out and reach an average of 27, you also need guys older than 27....which includes 30 year olds.

Nobody is saying you don't want young players. You were saying you don't want any 30 year olds....ok, let's be fair. You were saying you don't want to sign our best player as he is nearing 30. Which seems to indicate you have a flat no 30 year old policy. Unless you'd like to add some nuance to your statements.

I never said I have a policy to not sign 30 year olds. I never said I don’t want anyone 30 on the team.

I keep having to repeat my simple opinion. I would not pay Buchevich 9-10 million per season. He will be 30 before playing on his next contract, not nearing 30.

The Blues are not in a position where they are going for Cup runs. They are officially in a “retool”. It doesn’t make sense to sign a 30 year old Buch long term for 9 million per season.

I will be surprised if he gets a contract from anyone that starts with a 9 but who knows.

 

[Majorityof1]

I never said I have a policy to not sign 30 year olds. I never said I don’t want anyone 30 on the team.

I keep having to repeat my simple opinion. I would not pay Buchevich 9-10 million per season. He will be 30 before playing on his next contract, not nearing 30.

The Blues are not in a position where they are going for Cup runs. They are officially in a “retool”. It doesn’t make sense to sign a 30 year old Buch long term for 9 million per season.

I will be surprised if he gets a contract from anyone that starts with a 9 but who knows.

I had no problem with that. Then you said you think he'll want/get 6-7 and continue ed to say you didn't want him. You double down by saying you couldn't find any reason someone would want him at 6-7M

I have no idea. If I had to guess he will get 6-7 million per year and closer to 7. Most voices here seem to think the Blues should sign him if they can. I don’t really understand why. He will be 30 years old starting a Schenn type contract.

The NHL is a young man’s game.

You say he will get 6-7 AAV and on a Schenn type contrat ($6.5M). But you don't understand why anyone would want him as he is will be 30. That is saying more than you don't want him at 9M per season. That is saying there is no reason to want him for $6-7M.

If you could see a reason, you would be able to undeerstand why we would want to re-sign him without agreeing with it. But you can't understand why, so our reasons must be so bad or non-existant in your mind you can't fathom them overcoming his age. You don't talk about how his game will age, or how we have prospects who will fill his role.

You just say "he will be 30 on a Schenn type contract" which makes no sense because he has been much better than Schenn, and Schenn's contract has not been a problem yet. So how is getting a better player on that contract a problem.....oh yea, he will be 30???.

 

[Brian39]

I have no idea. If I had to guess he will get 6-7 million per year and closer to 7. Most voices here seem to think the Blues should sign him if they can. I don’t really understand why. He will be 30 years old starting a Schenn type contract.

The NHL is a young man’s game.

The Conn Smythe winner for Vegas was 32 and Stone was easily one of their top 5 most important players at age 30. Stamkos has been a very good contributor for Tampa at $8.5M in his age 30-32 seasons. He played a big role in two trips to the Final (and 1 Cup). Ovi, Oshie and Backstrom were 32, 31, and 30 for their Cup win. Pavelski played a huge role in the Stars runs to the Final (2020) and Conference Final (2023) at ages 35 and 38. Benn was a big part of their team this year at 33. The Bruins have been one of the league's best teams over the last 5 years with Marchand and Bergeron both above 30 the whole time.

You absolutely need a chunk of good forwards in their 20s to build a winner, but 30 isn't some magical cutoff where important players can't contribute to a winner anymore. And that is especially true for players who don't rely on speed and play a complete 200 ft game.

The Blues are not in a position where they are going for Cup runs. They are officially in a “retool”. It doesn’t make sense to sign a 30 year old Buch long term for 9 million per season.

That is absolutely correct in 2023, when Buch is 28 with 2 years left on his deal. If he was 30 years old right now and we were talking about a deal starting this season, then the first couple years of that deal would be getting burned. But we're not. The plan at the moment is overwhelmingly to be out of the "retool" phase for the 2025/26 season when Buch is 30 and in year 1 of his next contract.

Last year was year 1 of a retool. That wasn't the expectation, but it quickly became the reality and our trade deadline reflected that reality. We got a top 10 pick and accumulated several more high value futures assets. This will be year 2. 2024/25 will be year 3.

The first year of Buch's next deal will be year 4 since the kickoff of the retool. Neighbours will be 23. Dean and Bolduc will be 22. Snuggy will be 21 and Dvorsky will be 20. All but Neighbours will still be on their ELCs. I think that Snuggy and Dvorsky will both be in their 2nd NHL season. Even if one/both are NHL rookies, both should have enough pro experience that meaningful contributions should be an expectation. Thomas and Kyrou will be 26 and 27, which is exactly the age you want your core to be.

2025/26 absolutely shouldn't be viewed as a retool year. Army has more work to do than simply waiting for those prospects to arrive, but any conversation about Buch's potential future here should be under the lens of a team that is exiting a retool when an extension would kick in. You may disagree about the decision to retool vs rebuild, but the team at the moment has clearly chosen a retool and the roster is strong enough that I don't expect a full rebuild.