Blues Trade Proposals 2023-2024

[Brian39]

Buchnevich-Thomas-Kyrou needs to be together every game.

Kyrou w/ Thomas w/ Buch 57 GP 339 Min 37 GF 18 GA

Kyrou w/ Thomas 70 GP 513 min 29 GF 40 GA

Thomas w/ Buch 60 GP 308 Min 18 GF 15 GA

Kyrou w/ Buch 60 GP 60 Min 7 GF 3 GA

At those paces if all three of those players played just 513 minutes together they would have 56 GF and 27 GA. Thomas, Kyrou, and Buchnevich had very strong chemistry when they played together (Buchnevich blue line blind pass to a Kyrou tip in Goal in front of the net as example). These three are our best forwards and should be playing with each other.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I will note that it is generally really hard to make good enough 2nd and 3rd lines when you put your best 3 forwards onto 1 line. Pretty much every productive 2nd line in the NHL has at least 1 player who is a top-line talent. I very much understand the allure of splitting them up onto 2 lines.

Whether it is loading up 1 line or splitting them up, I want to see Buch and Kyrou get a long string of time together. I'm very much in the "Buch is the best player on our team" camp and I think his style/strengths mesh with Kyrou's strengths and weaknesses better than any forward on the roster. He is a good enough skater to hang with Kyrou on the rush, he is skilled enough offensively to play off Kyrou's creativity/ability to create space, and his defensive acumen/commitment helps offset Kyrou's defensive shortcomings as well as any forward we have. Saad might be better as a pure shutdown guy, but he doesn't have the skating ability or creativity to hang with Kyrou offensively.

The strengths/weaknesses of our center trio make it hard to keep Buch/Kyrou together without also loading Thomas on that line, so maybe that is the best decision. But if they don't want to load up the top line, I'd much rather experiment with a bunch of centers between Buch/Kyrou (or even revisit the Buch at C trial) than split them up again.

 

[Stealth JD]

Wake up on the wrong side of the bed or what? Sheesh.

I'm just wondering what criteria he used to say Schenn is worse than Kyrou defensively. I guarantee you guys don't know as much about evaluating talent as you think you do. Not saying I'm necessarily better but at least I know that. Schenn ain't getting traded anytime soon.

What did I say to imply I was cranky? Was there something you took personal about criticizing Schenn’s effectiveness? “Sheesh” indeed.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I will note that it is generally really hard to make good enough 2nd and 3rd lines when you put your best 3 forwards onto 1 line. Pretty much every productive 2nd line in the NHL has at least 1 player who is a top-line talent. I very much understand the allure of splitting them up onto 2 lines.

Whether it is loading up 1 line or splitting them up, I want to see Buch and Kyrou get a long string of time together. I'm very much in the "Buch is the best player on our team" camp and I think his style/strengths mesh with Kyrou's strengths and weaknesses better than any forward on the roster. He is a good enough skater to hang with Kyrou on the rush, he is skilled enough offensively to play off Kyrou's creativity/ability to create space, and his defensive acumen/commitment helps offset Kyrou's defensive shortcomings as well as any forward we have. Saad might be better as a pure shutdown guy, but he doesn't have the skating ability or creativity to hang with Kyrou offensively.

The strengths/weaknesses of our center trio make it hard to keep Buch/Kyrou together without also loading Thomas on that line, so maybe that is the best decision. But if they don't want to load up the top line, I'd much rather experiment with a bunch of centers between Buch/Kyrou (or even revisit the Buch at C trial) than split them up again.

that sounds like kevin hayes' music!

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I will note that it is generally really hard to make good enough 2nd and 3rd lines when you put your best 3 forwards onto 1 line. Pretty much every productive 2nd line in the NHL has at least 1 player who is a top-line talent. I very much understand the allure of splitting them up onto 2 lines.

Whether it is loading up 1 line or splitting them up, I want to see Buch and Kyrou get a long string of time together. I'm very much in the "Buch is the best player on our team" camp and I think his style/strengths mesh with Kyrou's strengths and weaknesses better than any forward on the roster. He is a good enough skater to hang with Kyrou on the rush, he is skilled enough offensively to play off Kyrou's creativity/ability to create space, and his defensive acumen/commitment helps offset Kyrou's defensive shortcomings as well as any forward we have. Saad might be better as a pure shutdown guy, but he doesn't have the skating ability or creativity to hang with Kyrou offensively.

The strengths/weaknesses of our center trio make it hard to keep Buch/Kyrou together without also loading Thomas on that line, so maybe that is the best decision. But if they don't want to load up the top line, I'd much rather experiment with a bunch of centers between Buch/Kyrou (or even revisit the Buch at C trial) than split them up again.

I definitely understand your feelings, but I do think we have a fairly decent group who can roll in the middle 6. Saad, Schenn, Vrana, Hayes, Kapanen, Neighbors, and Blais should all be able to be a good 2nd and 3rd string if we load the top line up with Buch-Thomas-Kyrou.

 

[kimzey59]

Buchnevich-Thomas-Kyrou needs to be together every game.

Kyrou w/ Thomas w/ Buch 57 GP 339 Min 37 GF 18 GA

Kyrou w/ Thomas 70 GP 513 min 29 GF 40 GA

Thomas w/ Buch 60 GP 308 Min 18 GF 15 GA

Kyrou w/ Buch 60 GP 60 Min 7 GF 3 GA

At those paces if all three of those players played just 513 minutes together they would have 56 GF and 27 GA. Thomas, Kyrou, and Buchnevich had very strong chemistry when they played together (Buchnevich blue line blind pass to a Kyrou tip in Goal in front of the net as example). These three are our best forwards and should be playing with each other.

Disagree.
Yeah, the goal total looks decent.
However; as a line they gave up more shots against than they were taking(97 shots for; 109 shots against). That is not a blueprint for long term success.
As a line Buch-Thomas-Kyrou is just bad at possession. It's a quick strike rush unit that struggles to control the puck. And they have a habit of getting way too pass happy and handing opponents some easy turnovers.
It absolutely played a part in why we were so terrible defensively last year.

Personally, I want to see a lot of experimenting in camp/early part of the season to find the right lines. Nobody really did anything to cement themselves into a spot last year.

 

[Celtic Note]

Hope Vrana doesn't get a smell for the nose snow again for your sake. Giving up on Kyrou at 25 after being in the NHL for only 3 years could easily vote bite us in the ass. But then again. Everyone wants him gone anyways.

Not everyone.

 

[Celtic Note]

I based that opinion on multiple categories between the two players when at even strength.

Schenn had higher values in shot-attempts against (So both Corsi and Fenwick), expected goals against, actuals shots against, scoring chances against, and high danger shot attempts against. I disregarded offensive contributions (which would be to Schenn's betterment) and only looked at metrics against the Blues with both players on the ice. I also broke down the two players ice time to account for if they were paired together vs. not. Their metrics were putrid together, but Kyrou's improved dramatically when moved away from Schenn and Schenn's stayed closer to the numbers when they're together. The major difference between the two was Kyrou's results were significantly worse than the predictive values while Schenn's were significantly better than his predicative values. So Kyrou was on the ice for more goals against than Schenn. In terms of play, Kyrou was playing better defensively than Schenn was last year but the results went Schenn's way.

Broken Down:

	TOI	Average TOI / TOI per Game	Corsi Against/60	Fenwick Against/60	Shots Against/60	Scoring Chances Against/60	Expected Goals Against/60	High Danger Corsi Against/60	Goals Against
Kyrou With Schenn	397:13	5:01	63.44	48.64	35.65	35.19	4.88	14.5	40
Kyrou Alone	791:34	10:01	57.83	43.96	30.85	32.97	3.16	13.72	54
Schenn Alone	839:49	10:14	63.23	48.44	34.58	35.08	3.37	15.22	43

All metrics are based on Even Strength and the metrics are labelled "/60" to denote a per 60 minutes basis while any other metric without are counts unless labelled otherwise. All numbers are found on Natural Stat Trick. I highlighted the worse number between the two as red.

So yeah, it's not hard to say that Schenn was worse defensively than Kyrou. Neither were good and both need to find a way to improve their overall affect on the game. But, if anything, Kyrou's faults were always under a microscope because his results were worse. Doing any sort of research would point to other players playing, at least, equally bad defensively but just walking away unscathed more frequently. I wouldn't say Kyrou was unlucky, more so others were luckier.

And on top of those worse numbers, Schenn was supposedly trying to play defense, while Kyrou was not.

 

[LogosBlue]

EVERYONE ON THE TEAM was doing the same exact shit. Constantly. Kyrou needs to be better, substantially better, but blaming the entire damn teams issue on one singular player is ridiculous.

My post literally started with this, "You guys are right. The entire team was a defensive mess last year"

Don't get your panties in a wad just because he was THE WORST offender. I was agreeing with everyone calling out the entire team.

I'm rooting for the kid to pull his head out of his butt and start playing a complete game. I wouldn't bet on it though at least not for a few more years.

 

[stl76]

I based that opinion on multiple categories between the two players when at even strength.

Schenn had higher values in shot-attempts against (So both Corsi and Fenwick), expected goals against, actuals shots against, scoring chances against, and high danger shot attempts against. I disregarded offensive contributions (which would be to Schenn's betterment) and only looked at metrics against the Blues with both players on the ice. I also broke down the two players ice time to account for if they were paired together vs. not. Their metrics were putrid together, but Kyrou's improved dramatically when moved away from Schenn and Schenn's stayed closer to the numbers when they're together. The major difference between the two was Kyrou's results were significantly worse than the predictive values while Schenn's were significantly better than his predicative values. So Kyrou was on the ice for more goals against than Schenn. In terms of play, Kyrou was playing better defensively than Schenn was last year but the results went Schenn's way.

Broken Down:

	TOI	Average TOI / TOI per Game	Corsi Against/60	Fenwick Against/60	Shots Against/60	Scoring Chances Against/60	Expected Goals Against/60	High Danger Corsi Against/60	Goals Against
Kyrou With Schenn	397:13	5:01	63.44	48.64	35.65	35.19	4.88	14.5	40
Kyrou Alone	791:34	10:01	57.83	43.96	30.85	32.97	3.16	13.72	54
Schenn Alone	839:49	10:14	63.23	48.44	34.58	35.08	3.37	15.22	43

All metrics are based on Even Strength and the metrics are labelled "/60" to denote a per 60 minutes basis while any other metric without are counts unless labelled otherwise. All numbers are found on Natural Stat Trick. I highlighted the worse number between the two as red.

So yeah, it's not hard to say that Schenn was worse defensively than Kyrou. Neither were good and both need to find a way to improve their overall affect on the game. But, if anything, Kyrou's faults were always under a microscope because his results were worse. Doing any sort of research would point to other players playing, at least, equally bad defensively but just walking away unscathed more frequently. I wouldn't say Kyrou was unlucky, more so others were luckier.

Really interesting stats, thanks for collating and posting.

This does beg the question for me: was Schenn tasked with tougher defensive assignments than Kyrou?

Don't have time for a deeper dive right now, but just looking at zone starts on hockey-reference, it seems like part of the reason for Schenn's poorer possession numbers may be that he was starting in the dzone more often and tasked to play against opponents top offensive lines a lot more than Kyrou was.

As always, it's important to look at usage and difficulty/type of minutes played when comparing players' stats!

 

[Spektre]

If the Blues tank this year, (I think the odds are against it) I wonder if Buchnevich could be traded for the best possible defensive prospect. Obviously this hypothetical depends on which teams are in a playoff spot and what their prospect pool looks like.

 

[Mike Liut]

If the Blues tank this year, (I think the odds are against it) I wonder if Buchnevich could be traded for the best possible defensive prospect. Obviously this hypothetical depends on which teams are in a playoff spot and what their prospect pool looks like.

I think it’s more likely he’d be traded next TDL if an extension can’t be worked out.

 

[Stealth JD]

If the Blues tank this year, (I think the odds are against it) I wonder if Buchnevich could be traded for the best possible defensive prospect. Obviously this hypothetical depends on which teams are in a playoff spot and what their prospect pool looks like.

I suggested that on post #202 (page 9) about a month ago. I'm down.

 

[Thallis]

I suggested that on post #202 (page 9) about a month ago. I'm down.

I've been saying it all summer. Buchnevich makes complete sense as a trade chip considering his age and contract status.

 

[Thallis]

Disagree.
Yeah, the goal total looks decent.
However; as a line they gave up more shots against than they were taking(97 shots for; 109 shots against). That is not a blueprint for long term success.
As a line Buch-Thomas-Kyrou is just bad at possession. It's a quick strike rush unit that struggles to control the puck. And they have a habit of getting way too pass happy and handing opponents some easy turnovers.
It absolutely played a part in why we were so terrible defensively last year.

Personally, I want to see a lot of experimenting in camp/early part of the season to find the right lines. Nobody really did anything to cement themselves into a spot last year.

I don't think there was any line on the team that played significant minutes together and didn't give up more shots than taken. That's just what happens when your D sucks at retrievals and entries. The question is shot quality (although that's not going to look good with any line either) in comparison to other possibilities.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

If we are trading from the core Buchnevich makes the most sense value, age, and contract wise. Especially if he isn't interested in staying past his current contract or is looking for a major payday (9m+.)

 

[Mike Liut]

If we are trading from the core Buchnevich makes the most sense value, age, and contract wise. Especially if he isn't interested in staying past his current contract or is looking for a major payday (9m+.)

Agree. I’d love to extend him, but if not, bye. Nobody walks for free in this re-tool. We need assets

 

[Brian39]

If we can't reach a deal with Buch then I think everyone agrees that he should be traded so that he doesn't walk for nothing. While we all have various opinions about when a window may re-open for this team, I think we can all agree that 2024/25 isn't an 'all in' year where it would make a ton of sense to use Buch as an 'own rental' rather than getting a significant return for him.

I think the bigger question is what contract terms should be the 'line in the sand' that we refuse to cross to get a deal done with Buch.

Personally, I'd have no problem making Buch the highest cap hit on the team. I firmly believe that he is easily the team's best player right now. The cap should be $90M+ by the time his next deal kicks in and AAVs around the league will increase accordingly. I don't think $9M would be unreasonable as an AAV for him. I wouldn't give that to him on a 7 or 8 year deal since he will be entering his age 30 season in year 1 of the deal, but I'd give him a high cap hit if he was willing to sacrifice term. I'd also be willing to max out the term if he'd take a large cut on the AAV. I'd eat some bad years on Buch if we can get him at a nice AAV in his early 30s as we are riding out the ends of the Schenn, Faulk, Krug, and Binner deals.

I don't need him to take a massive discount from market value to convince me to keep him rather than trading him. I'd need him to bend on something (either term or AAV) for it to make sense, but it wouldn't be a situation where I'd need him to leave $15M+ on the table just for me to consider not trading him.

 

[Xerloris]

If we can't reach a deal with Buch then I think everyone agrees that he should be traded so that he doesn't walk for nothing. While we all have various opinions about when a window may re-open for this team, I think we can all agree that 2024/25 isn't an 'all in' year where it would make a ton of sense to use Buch as an 'own rental' rather than getting a significant return for him.

I think the bigger question is what contract terms should be the 'line in the sand' that we refuse to cross to get a deal done with Buch.

Personally, I'd have no problem making Buch the highest cap hit on the team. I firmly believe that he is easily the team's best player right now. The cap should be $90M+ by the time his next deal kicks in and AAVs around the league will increase accordingly. I don't think $9M would be unreasonable as an AAV for him. I wouldn't give that to him on a 7 or 8 year deal since he will be entering his age 30 season in year 1 of the deal, but I'd give him a high cap hit if he was willing to sacrifice term. I'd also be willing to max out the term if he'd take a large cut on the AAV. I'd eat some bad years on Buch if we can get him at a nice AAV in his early 30s as we are riding out the ends of the Schenn, Faulk, Krug, and Binner deals.

I don't need him to take a massive discount from market value to convince me to keep him rather than trading him. I'd need him to bend on something (either term or AAV) for it to make sense, but it wouldn't be a situation where I'd need him to leave $15M+ on the table just for me to consider not trading him.

If we were to trade him, what would be your ideal target? Defense or a replacement for him?

 

[oPlaiD]

I'd rather re-sign Buchnevich. He's the type of player that's always underrated and that makes him a decent candidate to produce better on-ice results than even what he'd get paid in FA, and also than what he'd return in a trade.

If we can't make that happen, though, then by all means trade him. But I also think it will be hard to find a deal where we'd really be happy with the result, outside of just being content that we had to do something to recoup assets.

 

[Mike Liut]

If we were to trade him, what would be your ideal target? Defense or a replacement for him?

A young #1 LD. Who? No clue. I’d even add for the right player.

 

[Spektre]

A young #1 LD. Who? No clue. I’d even add for the right player.

No team is trading a young #1 or projected to be #1 D. I think the best case is getting a top 4 D prospect that the Blues feel has upside.

 

[Mike Liut]

No team is trading a young #1 or projected to be #1 D. I think the best case is getting a top 4 D prospect that the Blues feel has upside.

You’re probably right. We need a Shanny for Pronger deal

 

[TurgPavs]

Hope Vrana doesn't get a smell for the nose snow again for your sake. Giving up on Kyrou at 25 after being in the NHL for only 3 years could easily vote bite us in the ass. But then again. Everyone wants him gone anyways.

You gotta hope that Vrana doesnt turn into the "Candy man" like Ian Lapierriere, turned into for Colorado. Thats didnt end up well for Marek Svatos.

No team is trading a young #1 or projected to be #1 D. I think the best case is getting a top 4 D prospect that the Blues feel has upside.

Always wondered what/where Adam Fox projected when Carolina traded him for a 2nd and 3rd.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Always wondered what/where Adam Fox projected when Carolina traded him for a 2nd and 3rd.

I think he always projected as top of lineup guy. Problem was he didn’t want to sign with canes (or flames) so he forced way to rags.

 

[Brian39]

If we were to trade him, what would be your ideal target? Defense or a replacement for him?

Realistically, we would be trading him to a team looking to contend that will be looking to give up futures. Player for player trades of guys in their late 20s with limited term are pretty rare, so I don't think you're moving Buch for a replacement or immediate defensive fix.

I think a package in between the Timo Meier package and the Bo Horvat package is a fair target. Much closer to the Meier package if the receiving team is getting 2 playoff runs before his contract expires. A 1st and a legit D prospect should be the core of the deal with the remaining details to be determined by the timing of the deal and the retention and/or bad contract(s) we take back.