Blue Jays Discussion: Blue Jays fire manager Montoyo, Schneider takes over

[Discoverer]

Let's all marvel at "El Capitan" Alejandro Kirk. Not only is he hitting better than even most of us who were high on him could have expected (.304/.382/.432), but his defense has been above league average for the position, (which not a single prospect guy could have predicted), including a 33% caught stealing rate (TIED FOR 6TH AMONG STARTING CATCHERS!!!). He's second on the team in total WAR and is going to make one of Jansen or Moreno expendable soon (hopefully Jansen).

At this point I wouldn't even mind seeing all three of them stay around. Honestly, I wouldn't even hate seeing Moreno get the odd start at another position (3B, maybe, or even 2B or OF) to better position the team to keep all three without losing positional flexibility. I realize it's unlikely though, since they're going to do what's best for Moreno's development.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

At this point I wouldn't even mind seeing all three of them stay around. Honestly, I wouldn't even hate seeing Moreno get the odd start at another position (3B, maybe, or even 2B or OF) to better position the team to keep all three without losing positional flexibility. I realize it's unlikely though, since they're going to do what's best for Moreno's development.

I don't know about you but the second Jansen establishes good value I'm moving him to fill a need or for a good prospect. The guy can't stay healthy, he's never performed well for a very long stretch, and we have better talent beside and behind him.

 

[Discoverer]

Again incorrect. 10% is a huge difference. Tapia batting leadoff puts the team at an immediate disadvantage for the entirety of that game. Montoyo has done this countless time. Most of the time managerial decisions impact the game lightly at best like you say. However, in the case of managers like Montoyo the team must win in spite of his inability to draw up a proper lineup. He is an absolute tire fire of a manager and hopefully the problem will be relieved of his duties sooner than later.

"10% is a huge difference" misses the point. The scenario for that 10% difference is literally the most egregious example of managerial incompetence I could think of, and it's so bad that no manager in baseball, including Montoyo, would ever do it.

If we're talking about things that actually happen, even dumb ones like batting Tapia leadoff, things like lineup construction likely account for a small fraction of a run each game. I hated Tapia in the leadoff spot, but I also think the difference between that and an optimized lineup are small enough that you can take other things (injuries, personal preferences, who's hitting well recently, etc.) into consideration and do something that, on the surface, seems pretty dumb.

And for the record, the "countless" number of times Montoyo has put Tapia at leadoff is the same number of times that Ryan Goins led off in 2015 (5), and WAY less than Pillar hit leadoff in 2016 (21!) I think we tend to underestimate how much behind-the-scenes stuff goes into lineup decisions.

 

[thehockeysong]

"10% is a huge difference" misses the point. The scenario for that 10% difference is literally the most egregious example of managerial incompetence I could think of, and it's so bad that no manager in baseball, including Montoyo, would ever do it.

If we're talking about things that actually happen, even dumb ones like batting Tapia leadoff, things like lineup construction likely account for a small fraction of a run each game. I hated Tapia in the leadoff spot, but I also think the difference between that and an optimized lineup are small enough that you can take other things (injuries, personal preferences, who's hitting well recently, etc.) into consideration and do something that, on the surface, seems pretty dumb.

And for the record, the "countless" number of times Montoyo has put Tapia at leadoff is the same number of times that Ryan Goins led off in 2015 (5), and WAY less than Pillar hit leadoff in 2016 (21!) I think we tend to underestimate how much behind-the-scenes stuff goes into lineup decisions.

Through 48 games, that number is a bit off because Tapia wasn't available to hit first when he was busy hitting cleanup.

 

[Discoverer]

I don't know about you but the second Jansen establishes good value I'm moving him to fill a need or for a good prospect. The guy can't stay healthy, he's never performed well for a very long stretch, and we have better talent beside and behind him.

Yeah, I don't think we're ever going to agree on Jansen. The health concerns are real, but if we're going to knock him for not keeping it up for a long enough stretch then we should probably also remember that Kirk has 358 major league PA.

 

[phillipmike]

I wonder if we can pull off a deal with Arizona.

They have 3 ready or close to ready CF players/prospects with mid to high ceilings and all 3 have lefty bats;
-Alek Thomas (with Arizona but ranked 17th in MLB.com's top 100)
-Corbin Carroll (in AA with unreal numbers and ranked 13th overall in MLB.com's top 100)
-Dominic Fletcher (in AAA killing the ball and can play average CF - Arizona's 18th ranked prospect)

Also worth noting that everyone in Arizona's lineup is a switch hitter or lefty bat with the exception of one player, 1B Christian Walker. In fact they only have 3 RHHs on their roster, with 6 lefties and 4 switch hitters. Naturally they are a good trading partner.

With Teo and Gurriel being FAs after the 2023 season and Springer likely requiring a long term move to RF/DH, i wonder if the Jays look for a short and long term fix to their CF problem.

The easy solution for us would be to move one of our catchers for one of their CFers. However, with the emergence of Varsho who has 4 more years of control, it isnt a big need for the D-Backs. Same thing can be said for our SS depth as they have Perdomo and Lawler. However Lawler, is at least 3 years away and they only have one catcher in their top 30 and he is also 2-3 years away. I'm wondering if Jansen and Groshans could get Carroll or Thomas. I would also be interested in Orelvis or Kirk for one of them if push came to shove, as much as that may hurt. Outside of that, they would want pitching which we dont have a lot of.

If not, Fletcher is a very interesting bat and defender in CF but is more of a high floor guy. So this might be a trade similar to Devon Travis for Anthony Gose. So maybe Samad Taylor or Bowden Francis for Fletcher should be fair value.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Yeah, I don't think we're ever going to agree on Jansen. The health concerns are real, but if we're going to knock him for not keeping it up for a long enough stretch then we should probably also remember that Kirk has 358 major league PA.

What's there to agree on? Even if we compare over just the same span of plate appearances to start their careers Jansen didn't perform as well offensively as Kirk, and he was two years older.

It's the same thing every year. Jansen gets hot for two weeks and his fans get all excited, thinking he's finally become all they hoped he would be when they first fell in love with him as a prospect. Then at the end of the season his numbers regress to the mean. He's like that ex-girlfriend who wasn't right for you that you still hold out hope will be the one haha.

I just think with Jansen some Blue Jays fans suffer from a combination of the endowment effect and sunk cost fallacy. I mean I get the idea of what he's supposed to be in theory, I liked him as a prospect too. I just don't see it now. I guess it was like me with Dalton Pompey or Dustin McGowan back in the day so I can't fault you guys. But to me Jansen diehard fans are like the College recruiter from this old scene (seeing something completely different from what I see).

(19:28-20:27)

 

[ShaneFalco]

 

[Discoverer]

What's there to agree on? Even if we compare over just the same span of plate appearances to start their careers Jansen didn't perform as well offensively as Kirk, and he was two years older.

It's the same thing every year. Jansen gets hot for two weeks and his fans get all excited, thinking he's finally become all they hoped he would be when they first fell in love with him as a prospect. Then at the end of the season his numbers regress to the mean. He's like that ex-girlfriend who wasn't right for you that you still hold out hope will be the one haha.

I just think with Jansen some Blue Jays fans suffer from a combination of the endowment effect and sunk cost fallacy. I mean I get the idea of what he's supposed to be in theory, I liked him as a prospect too. I just don't see it now. I guess it was like me with Dalton Pompey or Dustin McGowan back in the day so I can't fault you guys. But to me Jansen diehard fans are like the College recruiter from this old scene (seeing something completely different from what I see).

(19:28-20:27)

In the last two years, Jansen has a 123 wRC+ and 2.1 fWAR in 85 games/251 PA. That's a loooooong couple of weeks of producing as a top 5 catcher in baseball.

If you want to throw in his 2020 season too it drops him all the way down to a 109 wRC+ and 2.5 fWAR in 398 PA. That wRC+ is just outside the top 10 catchers in the three year sample, tied with JT Realmuto.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I wonder if we can pull off a deal with Arizona.

They have 3 ready or close to ready CF players/prospects with mid to high ceilings and all 3 have lefty bats;
-Alek Thomas (with Arizona but ranked 17th in MLB.com's top 100)
-Corbin Carroll (in AA with unreal numbers and ranked 13th overall in MLB.com's top 100)
-Dominic Fletcher (in AAA killing the ball and can play average CF - Arizona's 18th ranked prospect)

Also worth noting that everyone in Arizona's lineup is a switch hitter or lefty bat with the exception of one player, 1B Christian Walker. In fact they only have 3 RHHs on their roster, with 6 lefties and 4 switch hitters. Naturally they are a good trading partner.

With Teo and Gurriel being FAs after the 2023 season and Springer likely requiring a long term move to RF/DH, i wonder if the Jays look for a short and long term fix to their CF problem.

The easy solution for us would be to move one of our catchers for one of their CFers. However, with the emergence of Varsho who has 4 more years of control, it isnt a big need for the D-Backs. Same thing can be said for our SS depth as they have Perdomo and Lawler. However Lawler, is at least 3 years away and they only have one catcher in their top 30 and he is also 2-3 years away. I'm wondering if Jansen and Groshans could get Carroll or Thomas. I would also be interested in Orelvis or Kirk for one of them if push came to shove, as much as that may hurt. Outside of that, they would want pitching which we dont have a lot of.

If not, Fletcher is a very interesting bat and defender in CF but is more of a high floor guy. So this might be a trade similar to Devon Travis for Anthony Gose. So maybe Samad Taylor or Bowden Francis for Fletcher should be fair value.

Why are you making it seem like Toronto has a short term problem at CF? Springer looks great in the field right now. Not sure why we have to worry about it. Sure, it’s always great to think long term but Springer is fine.

 

[Puckstuff]

Why are you making it seem like Toronto has a short term problem at CF? Springer looks great in the field right now. Not sure why we have to worry about it. Sure, it’s always great to think long term but Springer is fine.

Because Springer DH’s sometimes and then we have to play Tapia or Zimmer in Cf. Plus Springer would ideally move to RF in 1-2 years so CF would be a good get vs another corner outfielder. Another corner outfielder doesn’t solve the Tapia problem. And tapia plays a lot.

 

[Discoverer]

Why are you making it seem like Toronto has a short term problem at CF? Springer looks great in the field right now. Not sure why we have to worry about it. Sure, it’s always great to think long term but Springer is fine.

It could make sense as replacement for Tapia/Zimmer who can play CF and offer more upside. Then over the next couple years Springer gradually shifts to a corner and the young guy gets more and more time in CF.

 

[Suntouchable13]

It could make sense as replacement for Tapia/Zimmer who can play CF and offer more upside. Then over the next couple years Springer gradually shifts to a corner and the young guy gets more and more time in CF.

Yes, fine, that is fair. Totally agreed

Because Springer DH’s sometimes and then we have to play Tapia or Zimmer in Cf. Plus Springer would ideally move to RF in 1-2 years so CF would be a good get vs another corner outfielder. Another corner outfielder doesn’t solve the Tapia problem. And tapia plays a lot.

That’s fine. Great points made by you. I do like Zimmer in the center though, he is an immaculate fielder but his bat… Yikes.

 

[phillipmike]

Why are you making it seem like Toronto has a short term problem at CF? Springer looks great in the field right now. Not sure why we have to worry about it. Sure, it’s always great to think long term but Springer is fine.

Springer has never started more than 80 games in CF in his career with the Astros. Last year he was the DH almost as many games as he was in CF; 38 to 40. This year he has only played 58% of his games in CF - on pace for 95 games in CF - something i cant see him maintaining.

At the age of 32 and 4 more years left on the deal, i cant see him play 100+ games in CF. So if we need an OFer to play at least 80 games in CF a year, and i rather it be someone with great defense and upside who will eventually turn into a starter than players like Zimmer or Tapia. Cedric Mullins would be nice but i cant see Baltimore trading him to us after his season last year and with his value down this year. So i think you have to try for a prospect type player. Right now my be the time to do it because their is little pressure for that player to produce offensively with Springer, Gurriel and Teo in the OF. So we just need solid defense in CF and an average bat. I think the time to do that is now when the expectations are low.

 

[theaub]

Is Springer going to be happy shifting to a COF position this early in his contract?

Even though he's only started 58% of his total games in CF, when he's starting in the field its 93% of his starts.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

What's there to agree on? Even if we compare over just the same span of plate appearances to start their careers Jansen didn't perform as well offensively as Kirk, and he was two years older.

It's the same thing every year. Jansen gets hot for two weeks and his fans get all excited, thinking he's finally become all they hoped he would be when they first fell in love with him as a prospect. Then at the end of the season his numbers regress to the mean. He's like that ex-girlfriend who wasn't right for you that you still hold out hope will be the one haha.

I just think with Jansen some Blue Jays fans suffer from a combination of the endowment effect and sunk cost fallacy. I mean I get the idea of what he's supposed to be in theory, I liked him as a prospect too. I just don't see it now. I guess it was like me with Dalton Pompey or Dustin McGowan back in the day so I can't fault you guys. But to me Jansen diehard fans are like the College recruiter from this old scene (seeing something completely different from what I see).

(19:28-20:27)

Yeah you would have a point if Jansen wasn't actually a top 10 catcher in baseball. What has actually happened with a big chunk of the fanbase is they have a distorted picture of what a great catcher in baseball actually is when it comes to the offensive side of the ball. Like half the teams in baseball would give their left nut for Jansen during a slump.

 

[Discoverer]

I guess this means we're gonna end up with Tapia at Leadoff Part VI tonight...



And I'm not about to get my hopes up or anything considering it's very much arbitrary end-points and zero power and a .400+ BABIP, but Tapia has a .378 OBP in his last 15 games. Progress?

 

[kb]

I guess this means we're gonna end up with Tapia at Leadoff Part VI tonight...



And I'm not about to get my hopes up or anything considering it's very much arbitrary end-points and zero power and a .400+ BABIP, but Tapia has a .378 OBP in his last 15 games. Progress?

He's taking full swings and I keep hoping to see progress, but I have to LOL at his .254 slugging percentage for May.

I mean.....how is that even possible?

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Yeah you would have a point if Jansen wasn't actually a top 10 catcher in baseball. What has actually happened with a big chunk of the fanbase is they have a distorted picture of what a great catcher in baseball actually is when it comes to the offensive side of the ball. Like half the teams in baseball would give their left nut for Jansen during a slump.

Great, then he should fetch a massive return when we ship him off.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

In the last two years, Jansen has a 123 wRC+ and 2.1 fWAR in 85 games/251 PA. That's a loooooong couple of weeks of producing as a top 5 catcher in baseball.

If you want to throw in his 2020 season too it drops him all the way down to a 109 wRC+ and 2.5 fWAR in 398 PA. That wRC+ is just outside the top 10 catchers in the three year sample, tied with JT Realmuto.

Ah yes, let's parse the sample size to arrive at the number we want by including a hot sample where he has an unrealistic 200wrc+. That's like last year people were using his hot start as THE representative sample, before getting injured again, came back and regressed to the mean..

In the last two completed seasons Jansen has played (2020, 2021) he has a 94.5 wrc+. If you count every year before this one he averaged 93.3 wrc+. If that's a top 5 catcher in baseball it would only be because the standards were low, and it might be worth settling if we didn't have better options. League average wrc+ is 100. Kirk in his first two years (not including this one) is at 135.5 wrc+.

An average MLB player WAR per year is 2 according to Fangraphs. In his 4-year big league career Jansen has yet to even crack 1.5 WAR in a season cause he's injured so much,

 

[Canada4Gold]

Ah yes, let's parse the sample size to arrive at the number we want by including a hot sample where he has an unrealistic 200wrc+. That's like last year people were using his hot start as THE representative sample, before getting injured again, came back and regressed to the mean..

Ummmm What? That's pretty much the exact opposite of what happened last year, and you were the one talking about how much he sucked after his terrible start got hurt came back and then he regressed positively to the mean.

here let me remind you

Jansen - will he ever hit again?

He's due to break out any moment now. He just needs a lucky rabbit's foot.

Lopez isn’t a bad arm. I would maybe consider Jansen for him but not Kirk.

But what about Jansen's big breakout year?

Problem is that Jansen is having a good spring thus far. Seeing the ball better so far and making hard contact every at bat.

He's hitting below the Mendoza line.

Jansen going to have a good season, Kirk pushing him will light a fire under him.

He struck out.

He had a .183 average and .671 OPS in the spring.

I mean it's nice to be optimistic but I'm not seeing this huge breakout or upside people are portending.

Jansen hearing Kirk about to creep up on his playing time.

Jansen's defense has taken a bit of a step back this year, but it was 15th last year and 8th the year before. Reese in a SSS has been great and has a defensive rep, but I fail to see a gigantic difference going forward.

Jansen
(2020)) 342.1IP -4DRS 0.2DWAR 6CS 20SB (23.1%)
(2021) 338.1IP 1DRS 0.5DWAR 3CS 18SB (14%)

"Fingers" McGuire
(2020)) 342.IP 1DRS 0.3DWAR 4CS 4SB (50%)
(2021) 337.IP 2DRS 0.5DWAR 10CS 7SB (41.2%)

McGuire is equal to him statistically in every defensive category except throwing where he absolutely demolishes him.

So to sum it all up. You're claiming people are taking the small sample size of Jansen's hot start to pump him up just "like last year" when last year he got off to an horrific start which you proceeded to use as a small sample to belittle him every chance you got which is exactly the same thing you're accusing people of doing here now? Is that about it?

I have 1 more question actually. Is this your reddit account because it's eerily similar to the incorrect statement you just tried to pawn off as fact?

He typically starts out his seasons good. He has a hot bat at the beginning of the season, then cools off, and winds up hitting .220 for the season. I sure hope I am wrong about this season, but I would not put any money on season long offence provided by Jansen.

 

[Morgs]

Ummmm What? That's pretty much the exact opposite of what happened last year, and you were the one talking about how much he sucked after his terrible start got hurt came back and then he regressed positively to the mean.

here let me remind you













So to sum it all up. You're claiming people are taking the small sample size of Jansen's hot start to pump him up just "like last year" when last year he got off to an horrific start which you proceeded to use as a small sample to belittle him every chance you got which is exactly the same thing you're accusing people of doing here now? Is that about it?

I have 1 more question actually. Is this your reddit account because it's eerily similar to the incorrect statement you just tried to pawn off as fact?

Let's not forget my post was about him talking about how McGuires hot streak made Jansen expendable

 

[thehockeysong]

We could get really out of hand here and discuss what the Jays would receive if they kept Jansen AND Kirk, but traded Moreno.

Not what I'd do, but gotta think they get a big return.

 

[Discoverer]

Ah yes, let's parse the sample size to arrive at the number we want by including a hot sample where he has an unrealistic 200wrc+. That's like last year people were using his hot start as THE representative sample, before getting injured again, came back and regressed to the mean..

In the last two completed seasons Jansen has played (2020, 2021) he has a 94.5 wrc+. If you count every year before this one he averaged 93.3 wrc+. If that's a top 5 catcher in baseball it would only be because the standards were low, and it might be worth settling if we didn't have better options. League average wrc+ is 100. Kirk in his first two years (not including this one) is at 135.5 wrc+.

An average MLB player WAR per year is 2 according to Fangraphs. In his 4-year big league career Jansen has yet to even crack 1.5 WAR in a season cause he's injured so much,

Ignoring the weird stuff everyone else already responded to... I included his 2020-2022 totals. You think THAT is "parsing the sample size to arrive at the number we want" and your solution is to remove his 2022 stats for the equations? Yikes.

Also, Kirk's wRC+ his first two years was 113. You don't just average the two numbers, especially when one season was 25 PA and the other was 189.

I'm not trying to disparage Kirk here. He's probably been my favourite player on the team this year. But Jansen is really, really good.