Bill the Thrill: Nylander appreciation thread

[PromisedLand]

Nylander 8x8 and Matthews 8x12.5

Willy is easily worth 10M AAV; that will be the starting point. Anything less on the 8 yr deal is a discount. No way Willy agrees to 8x8

 

[PromisedLand]

I would be comfortable giving William Nylander the $9.25 million Mikko Rantanen deal or slightly more, but ideally that's under $10 million. Whatever significant cap challenges we have are only for one season, until the $11 million Tavares deal comes off the books. And I think Tavares would not command nearly that kind of money if he wanted to stay, so you'd be reversing the JT and Willie contracts essentially.

Question is what has to shake loose in the short term to keep Willie here? I think Brodie is off the books that year, and Muzzin won't be a factor due to his LTIR, but we've spent his salary conceptually a few times over already. Samsonov, Murray, Liljegren, Sandin and Matthews would all be beyond their current deals too. That cap can't go up quickly enough if the intent is to keep the band together.

Most of Tavares' 11M off the books will go to increases for willy, matthews, marner with one yeaer of squeeze

am expecting increases as follows

Willy 3 to 4 million increase
Matthews 2 to 3.5 million increase
Marner 2 to 3.5 million increase

range: 7M to 11M range

Brodie off the books sure but both sandin/lily would need increases as well and we we would need another d-man to play brodie minutes/role which won't come cheap. Samsanov after this year and murray after 2 yrs will be done too i.e. leafs need goalie(s) too.

best time was obviously the time before when dubas gave those ridiculous contracts.

here is hoping three amigos give some discounts

and b4 people start posting about the salary cap increase well its the increase for the league not just the leafs i.e. leafs will compete with other teams for quality and top dollar to fill in depth and other pieces.

 

[Gabriel426]

Are we all sleeping on McD coming home? We need to save money for him when he hits UFA

 

[saffronleaf]

Go for it!

Worst case scenario, I see an internal rough budget of $18 million or so for Willie and JT as a continuation of what we pay them now, but maybe they switch AAV's, give or take. Only question for me here is how do you stickhandle around Willie and Matthews raises for that one pinch point season during JT's last season? Maybe that's a bit of a survival mode season? Or maybe they make a decision on Rielly or something.

I think JT's reduction in salary should cover raises for Nylander, Matthews, and Marner. He should take a sweetheart deal for like 3/4 mil.

But yea, there is one year that will be tough. I don't even mind if they make it a survival mode season. Losing the gang over the last year of JT's deal would be awful.

 

[ULF_55]

Are we all sleeping on McD coming home? We need to save money for him when he hits UFA

Don't think Leafs need to.
Get a Gio deal from Tavares.

Bunting-Matthews-Nylander
Tavares-McDavid-marner

 

[notDatsyuk]

I would be comfortable giving William Nylander the $9.25 million Mikko Rantanen deal or slightly more, but ideally that's under $10 million. Whatever significant cap challenges we have are only for one season, until the $11 million Tavares deal comes off the books. And I think Tavares would not command nearly that kind of money if he wanted to stay, so you'd be reversing the JT and Willie contracts essentially.

Question is what has to shake loose in the short term to keep Willie here? I think Brodie is off the books that year, and Muzzin won't be a factor due to his LTIR, but we've spent his salary conceptually a few times over already. Samsonov, Murray, Liljegren, Sandin and Matthews would all be beyond their current deals too. That cap can't go up quickly enough if the intent is to keep the band together.

I can see Willy getting $10 or even $11, but I don't think JT gets more than $4 or $5. But the problem is the one year overlap.

 

[freshwind]

not sure we should be planning on jt staying ... still 2 full years after this one ... maybe at a mill or under to be the 3c?
quite a while before his decision is pending... and he will be 35 before the season starts on his next deal ... 1 yr at a time minimum deals

 

[Gabriel426]

I think JT's reduction in salary should cover raises for Nylander, Matthews, and Marner. He should take a sweetheart deal for like 3/4 mil.

But yea, there is one year that will be tough. I don't even mind if they make it a survival mode season. Losing the gang over the last year of JT's deal would be awful.

I think that tough year will be for the rookies to take the next step.

 

[Menzinger]

Some of the contract talk is getting a bit inflated imo.

Kadri paced for a 100 point season his contract year, and he still ended up being paid as a good 2nd line centre as opposed to a 100 point centre....

Nylanders next contract is going to be representative of the bulk of who hes been (which is an excellent player) not just his best offensive sample.

If it came down to it, Id still have no issue paying him 10-11 mil, beacuse I legitimately think he's worth it BUT I still think he's heading towards a cheaper deal than that based on his other comparables

 

[Stephen]

I'm honestly not sure where I see the crunch. I think barring success and failures this post-season, you could re-sign Matthews, Marner, and Nylander for a combined $39M per season in 2024-2025 and $39M onwards without much issue.

2024: Marner $11M, Matthews $15M, Nylander $10M
2025: Marner: $14M, Matthews $15M, Nylander $10M

Cap will go up slightly in 2023-2024, but probably a solid $3-4M in 2024-2025 given current macroeconomic indicators. But even without that, internally within the roster, there's a lot of wiggle room:

- Goaltending: Samsonov or Murray at $5M AAV with Woll as backup in 2024-2025
- Defence: Muzzin, Brodie off the books to offset raises to Sandin , Liljegren, 2 #5s signing for $2-3M each, plus one prospect as #6 (Niemela, Hollowell, Kokonen, Kral, etc) to go along with Reilly
- Forwards: Kerfoot, Engvall, Tavares (unless re-signed for $5M AAV), etc. are all well-gone and replaced by Knies/SDA/Robertson/etc. on rookie contracts.

2024 - 2025 Season

Goaltending: $6M
Defence: $20.5M
Forwards: $59M for remaining 9 ($39M for Big 3)

Total Cap: $86M (+4.2% vs. 2022-2023)

Goaltending ($6M):
- Samsonov/Murray $5M, Woll $1M

Defence ($20.5M):
- Reilly: $7.5M
- Sandin/Liljegren: $3.5M x 2
- #5s: $2.5M x 2
- Prospect #6: $1M

Forwards ($59M):
- MMN: $36M
- Jarnkrok: $2M
- $21M for balance of 10 players

To simplify the equation let's think of it like this:

Matthews: $11.6 million -> $15.0 million, $3.4 million increase
Nylander: $6.96 million -> $10.0 million, $3.04 million increase

This is a net increase of $6.44 million in cap space for the 2024-25 season. The cap increase will provide some relief on this, but we'll likely be paying our goalies a little more than right now and like you said Sandin and Liljegren will be more expensive. Guys like Brodie will come off the books.

It will definitely be a crunch, but I think the long term health of the franchise is stronger with Nylander than letting him go and then having the Tavares money off the books the year after.

 

[Notsince67]

Willy is flirting with a 48-50 season and 90+ points putting him in line for his next $11 mil contract ask like his teammates.

11 million on the Oilers maybe. Not on a contender

 

[Wendelstache]

My crystal ball says, Willy takes home town discount for 7.5M, JT comes off the books then we immediately sign McDavid, than the final move is we get rid of Kerfoot and re-sign JT for Kerfoot's money.

 

[saffronleaf]

atta boy willy

 

[Wendelstache]

atta boy willy

Beauty!

 

[Menzinger]

The OT goal was a thing of beauty

 

[ULF_55]

So casual.
So easy.

 

[Gabriel426]

AS much as I love Willy. I don't think he is a 10mil player in this league.
Unless he goes beast mode(like close to 100 or over 100 pts), don't think he will get 10 mil.
somewhere in the 9-9.5mil range is where he is at. Ofcourse, if he wins two Conn Symthe with the Leafs, he should be paid like Mack.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

AS much as I love Willy. I don't think he is a 10mil player in this league.
Unless he goes beast mode(like close to 100 or over 100 pts), don't think he will get 10 mil.
somewhere in the 9-9.5mil range is where he is at. Ofcourse, if he wins two Conn Symthe with the Leafs, he should be paid like Mack.

If kerfoot wins two conn smythes I’d pay him 13 mil

I agree, nylander probably signs 9-9.5 if he stays here. Open market, I could see 10 flat if someone wants him to play 20+ minutes

 

[meefer]

So casual.
So easy.

He really does make it look easy, my goodness.
His attention to defense has picked up as well.

The sexy thing is, I think he has more to give. This ain't a knock at the fella, cause very few give it their all 100% of the time, but if Will has 5% more effort in him shift to shift, yaaaaaa.

 

[Gabriel426]

If kerfoot wins two conn smythes I’d pay him 13 mil

I agree, nylander probably signs 9-9.5 if he stays here. Open market, I could see 10 flat if someone wants him to play 20+ minutes

Didnt Paul DiPietro won the Conn Symthe and then ended up playing in Europe a few years later while in his prime.

Just checked, it was Roy who won that year.

 

[IPS]

The OT goal was a thing of beauty

Willy does that move so well. Shows him the wrister and and beats him with the backhand.

 

[WillyC]

Willy making these GWGs look easy.

 

[mapleleaf979]

Nylander is on pace for 94 points. 48 goals. A 50 goal, 100 point season is basically the same thing. Nothing surprises me about Nylander. He isnt even meshing with Matthews, they are at 70% chemistry at this point but with Nylander competing hard over the last 15 games bodes well for him and Matthews. Nylander can finish top 5 in NHL scoring if he remains dialed in and looks to feed Matthews a little bit more often. Nylander can easily command 11 million if he remains dialed in like this.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

210 points in 218 games since Keefe took over as coach. he's on another level this year but has been approaching a PPG steadily for the last 2.5 years worth of games.

 

[SniperOnTheWing]

My crystal ball says, Willy takes home town discount for 7.5M, JT comes off the books then we immediately sign McDavid, than the final move is we get rid of Kerfoot and re-sign JT for Kerfoot's money.

Willy is already playing on his discount contract right now. He’s going to deserve a raise to make up for being underpaid relative to the other big four guys.