Management Bill Guerin

[thestonedkoala]

I would have thought that the plan was to put some pieces around Kaprizov when he finally got here and started playing. Whether that meant a high end piece or just 'good' upgrades here and there would be a function of what he could actually make happen.

I think ultimately that's what a lot of fans are having questions about; either publicly or privately is if they aren't building around Kaprizov - then what are they doing? Bringing over Kaprizov was always the first step in the plan, but I thought the second step was to start building the team around him and Fiala. But Guerin doesn't seem to want to lock into Fiala long term either.

This is the one argument I really give credence to against that trade. I don't particularly care for Kunin as a player and think there's likely more value to Khusnutdinov/Hunt as a tandem in the future... But there should've been more futures in exchange for Bonino. Probably not much, but something.

It wouldn't have made any difference if they had traded Bonino or not at the deadline. He had 0 points, was a godawful 33% on face-offs and was a -3 in the playoffs.

The Kunin trade reminds me of the Granlund/Fiala trade. There should have been more there.

 

[GuerinUp]

I mean, it was hard to see what Eriksson-Ek's upside was until last season. His shooting percentage was a tick higher than normal, but he started to break out. Kunin was a middle 6 winger/center that was cost controlled. With him missing a huge chunk of his sophomore season, his third season was uneven as he was coming off a major injury. He picked it up later this year.

19 points in 38 games isn't bad, especially on Nashville.

Greenway was roughly .5 PPG before his breakout this season, Eriksson-Ek was less than .5 PPG, Rask was less than .5 PPG and he was the first line center, Hartman is less than a .5 PPG...are you telling me that we should have given up on Greenway, Eriksson-Ek, and Hartman?

Bonino did not outplay Kunin last season. He played almost 20 more games than Kunin. And yes, Khusnutdinov and Hunt are good prospects, but that's all they are right now. Prospects. We have no idea if they are going to progress or not in the NHL. The trade was structured in a way that the Wild should have more shots at getting someone like Kunin later by trading Bonino at the deadline.

kunin is terrible at faceoffs, has a .42 ppg start to his career, and cant stay healthy. Id also like to thank you for pointing out all these other players that are a .5ppg or lower, because im perfectly fine with losing rask and greenway as they arent producing like they should be. EK gets a pass because of his defensive prowess, and hartman is a freaking great 4th liner that played up due to necessity. none of this comparable players are proving any more value to kunin who has been meh at best since being on the nhl roster. Lastly, they didnt trade kunin to have more shots at drafting kunin like players. they traded him because he was a disappointment.

 

[thestonedkoala]

kunin is terrible at faceoffs, has a .42 ppg start to his career, and cant stay healthy.

Kunin hasn't played center constantly to know if he is a center or not. But he is still a right-handed shot that the Wild are currently lacking.

Id also like to thank you for pointing out all these other players that are a .5ppg or lower, because im perfectly fine with losing rask and greenway as they arent producing like they should be.

And replace them with who?

EK gets a pass because of his defensive prowess

And Kunin was coming around. Does no one remember the original GEEK line with Greenway, Eriksson-Ek and Kunin who were one of the best lines for a while.

Lastly, they didnt trade kunin to have more shots at drafting kunin like players. they traded him because he was a disappointment.

Actually, no one knows why they traded Kunin. The consensus was to get a veteran like Bonino and then turn around and trade Bonino at the deadline. It may have also been the expansion draft, but it wasn't that Kunin was a disappointment. Far from it actually.

 

[GuerinUp]

Kunin hasn't played center constantly to know if he is a center or not. But he is still a right-handed shot that the Wild are currently lacking.



And replace them with who?



And Kunin was coming around. Does no one remember the original GEEK line with Greenway, Eriksson-Ek and Kunin who were one of the best lines for a while.



Actually, no one knows why they traded Kunin. The consensus was to get a veteran like Bonino and then turn around and trade Bonino at the deadline. It may have also been the expansion draft, but it wasn't that Kunin was a disappointment. Far from it actually.

ya, 15th overall draft pick playing third line and scoring at .42 ppg with terrible advanced metrics isnt a disappointment.

as far as replacing greenway and rask Hartman can replace greenway, and rask is being replaced by rossi.

and kunin was traded because of that, and our need at center. Its not hard to read through the tea leaves.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

If anything the Kunin trade shows how little plan there really is to upgrade C. You take an asset they didn't have a lot of at the time, a young ELC that can play center right shot and *maybe* could still get better and shipped him out for the absolute definition of mediocre NHL center hoping that somehow, someway Bonino could be serviceable.

If you're Nashville, it is the kind of trade you can't lose but could maybe win big. They didn't but all the risk was on Guerin there. He got "lucky" that both players sucked.

 

[Minnewildsota]

If anything the Kunin trade shows how little plan there really is to upgrade C. You take an asset they didn't have a lot of at the time, a young ELC that can play center right shot and *maybe* could still get better and shipped him out for the absolute definition of mediocre NHL center hoping that somehow, someway Bonino could be serviceable.

If you're Nashville, it is the kind of trade you can't lose but could maybe win big. They didn't but all the risk was on Guerin there. He got "lucky" that both players sucked.

Yup.

 

[nickschultzfan]

If anything the Kunin trade shows how little plan there really is to upgrade C. You take an asset they didn't have a lot of at the time, a young ELC that can play center right shot and *maybe* could still get better and shipped him out for the absolute definition of mediocre NHL center hoping that somehow, someway Bonino could be serviceable.

If you're Nashville, it is the kind of trade you can't lose but could maybe win big. They didn't but all the risk was on Guerin there. He got "lucky" that both players sucked.

Guerin traded Kunin for a 2nd round pick that he used to draft a promising center, and then re-signed an equivalent player in Hartman for half the price.

 

[Bazeek]

I would have thought that the plan was to put some pieces around Kaprizov when he finally got here and started playing. Whether that meant a high end piece or just 'good' upgrades here and there would be a function of what he could actually make happen.

Instead.....silence.....nothing.....Rossi/Boldy......well, great but......:crickets:

Offseason is not over, let the kids play, have patience.....yada yada. It is not unreasonable as fans to wonder, wassup Bill? Is there ANYTHING up your sleeve?

Yeah, and I don't necessarily think there's an ideal way to navigate this situation. When he was hired I think Guerin inherited three big problems:

1. The tail ends of the Parise and Suter contracts
2. A lack of quality centers under 30
3. The Seattle expansion draft

He responded to #1 by "collapsing the wave function": if this is going to be a problem, at least make it a predictable one that you can plan around. I tend to agree with that.

The only response to #2 has been Rossi, which is more capitalizing on circumstance than a deliberate move. In terms of addressing the current NHL roster that doesn't cut it for me, so I'm still waiting for some kind of solution here. Leaving this unaddressed for 2 years is a failure, in my opinion.

And I think #3 was handled well. Partly that's because his answer to #1 made it moot, but I thought exposing Kahkonen was a good attempt to save Soucy without making bad deals with Seattle.

So those were the problems. He also inherited two big strengths that he needed to leverage:

1. A very strong blueline.
2. Two serendipitously acquired top-line wingers (Kaprizov and Fiala)

Managing #1 was tricky because the oldest defenseman had an NMC and was also one of his (future) problems. Spurgeon's contract and replacing Suter with Goligoski isn't the worst thing that could have happened, but the end result is probably going from a top-5 blueline in the league to somewhere in the middle.

And he's currently working his way through #2, which brings us back to your original point: is there anything up Guerin's sleeve here? He's given himself certainty with the buyouts, but remaining competitive through them is going to be a massive challenge that he hasn't shown any sign of having a solution for. He hasn't solved the center issue, which he now has effectively zero maneuvering room to address for next season (again beyond putting all the chips on Rossi). And he's negotiating extensions with his two best offensive players, who will be committing to playing 4 prime years under these buyouts.

I'm still waiting for the last move to come out of that sleeve and make this whole thing look coherent, and at this point I think most of us will agree that it isn't coming. I certainly hope that this all works out for the best and the team hits on the series of low-percentage shots it still has available, but I expect 4 years on the bubble while we wait things out. For a fanbase that has lived on the bubble for over a decade, that's a bitter ****ing pill.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

Guerin traded Kunin for a 2nd round pick that he used to draft a promising center, and then re-signed an equivalent player in Hartman for half the price.

In hindsight, it worked out fine. But that doesn't mean that at the time, it wasn't a huge risk. Kunin could have just as easily stayed healthy and had a good season for Nashville while offering all the same things the Wild needed at the time. Maybe the scouts were convinced that Kunin would never live up to that but obviously Nashville disagreed and traded for him. At this rate he will never benefit from the 2nd round pick, someone else will.

 

[nickschultzfan]

In hindsight, it worked out fine. But that doesn't mean that at the time, it wasn't a huge risk. Kunin could have just as easily stayed healthy and had a good season for Nashville while offering all the same things the Wild needed at the time. Maybe the scouts were convinced that Kunin would never live up to that but obviously Nashville disagreed and traded for him. At this rate he will never benefit from the 2nd round pick, someone else will.

Heads you win, tails Guerin loses?

He made a call with Kunin, and early results are promising. Wild have had a history of holding on to middling young players too long, and then signing them to overpriced contracts that push the team towards mediocrity.

Guerin has to make another hard choice with Greenway with the cap being tight. We should all consider moving him in the next year for similar reasons to Kunin. +$4m/year on a middle-6 winger is millions less the team has for Kap, Fiala, etc.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

Heads you win, tails Guerin loses?

He made a call with Kunin, and early results are promising. Wild have had a history of holding on to middling young players too long, and then signing them to overpriced contracts that push the team towards mediocrity.

Guerin has to make another hard choice with Greenway with the cap being tight. We should all consider moving him in the next year for similar reasons to Kunin. +$4m/year on a middle-6 winger is millions less the team has for Kap, Fiala, etc.

Tell me where I said he lost? I'm saying that, for one of the only real moves he's made, it was a strange amount of risk to simply add Bonino....which was the main point of that trade. A 2nd is nice but it was a center for center deal.....even if Kunin's center position should be in quotes. And that middling young player still posted .5 per game. Right now, today......Kunin>>>Bonino/Rask/Bjugstad=Hartman

God help us but Kunin would be the #2 C on this team in camp until, and hopefully, Rossi beat him out of it.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Leaving this unaddressed for 2 years is a failure, in my opinion.

To be fair, I think no one for the Wild has ever addressed this.

For a fanbase that has lived on the bubble for over a decade, that's a bitter ****ing pill.

I think that is where a lot of the criticism lies with a lot of fans. He needs to either shit or get off the pot.

 

[Slotski]

When Guerin took over, the Wild were not only a borderline playoff team, but also trending poorly. Don't know if Guerin's moves are the correct pieces. But I do know, you don't fix a trending wrong direction franchise in 2 yrs. 5 is a more likely #. Personally, I HATE quick fixes which simply tread water Like every Cup winner in the last 20 years, you MUST create a core through draft and develop. IMO, the next 3 yrs. of drafting need to add a potential top pairing D, a top top 6 C and a RH scoring forward. NOT easy, but if they move a couple of players off the current roster over the next 2 years (perhaps Greenway, Dumba and/0r Zucc), they could add a couple of first round picks. to increase the odds.

 

[Bazeek]

To be fair, I think no one for the Wild has ever addressed this.

The 1C problem hasn't ever been addressed, but that's one of the hardest ones in hockey to solve. Adding one or two quality centers to take over after Staal and Koivu fell off their respective cliffs is a pretty realistic expectation though. They clearly see Eriksson-Ek stepping into one of those spots, which I have my misgivings about but am mostly optimistic. The other is still a complete vacuum that'll either be filled by Rask or Rossi.

I think that is where a lot of the criticism lies with a lot of fans. He needs to either shit or get off the pot.

More or less. I'd settle for some sign that one move was connected to another, which is what I mean when I blather on about "coherence." Recognizing that Kaprizov was on his way and would make Zucker, a player that had substantial trade value, redundant was a coherent move in my eyes. In contrast, the moves this summer seem largely to have happened independently from one another. Maybe that's because they expected the RFA negotiations to be taken care of much earlier... but that would be a pretty bad thing to count on considering how similar talks have gone around the league in recent years.

 

[thestonedkoala]

The 1C problem hasn't ever been addressed, but that's one of the hardest ones in hockey to solve. Adding one or two quality centers to take over after Staal and Koivu fell off their respective cliffs is a pretty realistic expectation though. They clearly see Eriksson-Ek stepping into one of those spots, which I have my misgivings about but am mostly optimistic. The other is still a complete vacuum that'll either be filled by Rask or Rossi.


More or less. I'd settle for some sign that one move was connected to another, which is what I mean when I blather on about "coherence." Recognizing that Kaprizov was on his way and would make Zucker, a player that had substantial trade value, redundant was a coherent move in my eyes. In contrast, the moves this summer seem largely to have happened independently from one another. Maybe that's because they expected the RFA negotiations to be taken care of much earlier... but that would be a pretty bad thing to count on considering how similar talks have gone around the league in recent years.

I think Guerin really believed he was going to trade for Eichel and now doesn't know what to do. He also seems to not want to trade nor sign a young center. Bonino, Johansson and Bjugstad all seem like stop gaps.

I do agree that trading Zucker and having a place for Kaprizov made a ton of sense. But none of his other moves look coherent. He took a strength (left defense) and blasted a hole in it. Just doesn't make sense.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Tell me where I said he lost? I'm saying that, for one of the only real moves he's made, it was a strange amount of risk to simply add Bonino....which was the main point of that trade. A 2nd is nice but it was a center for center deal.....even if Kunin's center position should be in quotes. And that middling young player still posted .5 per game. Right now, today......Kunin>>>Bonino/Rask/Bjugstad=Hartman

God help us but Kunin would be the #2 C on this team in camp until, and hopefully, Rossi beat him out of it.

This is incorrect. Kunin did not fit with the Wild's timeline. Wild need to drop long-term salary and acquire more young players.

Bonino was secondary asset, not the primary.

 

[GuerinUp]

I think Guerin really believed he was going to trade for Eichel and now doesn't know what to do. He also seems to not want to trade nor sign a young center. Bonino, Johansson and Bjugstad all seem like stop gaps.

I do agree that trading Zucker and having a place for Kaprizov made a ton of sense. But none of his other moves look coherent. He took a strength (left defense) and blasted a hole in it. Just doesn't make sense.

there really wasnt any UFA centers worth signing tbh

the stop gaps imo just show more how much guerin had probably been thinking of the buyouts for quite some time.

 

[GuerinUp]

People keep saying on here that they cant see guerins plan, but ive been saying for over a year now hes retooling, while trying to stay competitive in the meantime, and it would probably take a few years. Every move hes made has fit this "change the culture, change the team retool"

 

[thestonedkoala]

there really wasnt any UFA centers worth signing tbh.

You're telling me there wasn't a center better than Rask?

Blake Coleman, Alex Wennberg, and then Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, Adam Gaudette, Tyler Johnson, Jason Dickinson, Cody Glass, Nolan Patrick, were all traded this season.

People keep saying on here that they cant see guerins plan, but ive been saying for over a year now hes retooling, while trying to stay competitive in the meantime, and it would probably take a few years.

aka We hope for better results next year

 

[nickschultzfan]

The 1C problem hasn't ever been addressed, but that's one of the hardest ones in hockey to solve. Adding one or two quality centers to take over after Staal and Koivu fell off their respective cliffs is a pretty realistic expectation though. They clearly see Eriksson-Ek stepping into one of those spots, which I have my misgivings about but am mostly optimistic. The other is still a complete vacuum that'll either be filled by Rask or Rossi.


More or less. I'd settle for some sign that one move was connected to another, which is what I mean when I blather on about "coherence." Recognizing that Kaprizov was on his way and would make Zucker, a player that had substantial trade value, redundant was a coherent move in my eyes. In contrast, the moves this summer seem largely to have happened independently from one another. Maybe that's because they expected the RFA negotiations to be taken care of much earlier... but that would be a pretty bad thing to count on considering how similar talks have gone around the league in recent years.

1C problem was never addressed because the Wild never drafted 1Cs aside from Koivu (hit) and Sheppard (bust). Everything else is a distraction.

Guerin comes in and drafts (1) Rossi and (2) Khusnutdinov, and he took swings on (3) Bankier and (4) Pillar.

For comparison, prior to Guerin, the Wild drafted JEE, Khovanov, Shaw, Kunin if you thought he was a center despite his non-existent playmaking, and a lot of trash. No guys with 1C upside.

 

[GuerinUp]

You're telling me there wasn't a center better than Rask?

Blake Coleman, Alex Wennberg, and then Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, Adam Gaudette, Tyler Johnson, Jason Dickinson, Cody Glass, Nolan Patrick, were all traded this season.



aka We hope for better results next year

why dont you reread what youre replying to. NONE of those players you mentioned were ufas

 

[nickschultzfan]

People keep saying on here that they cant see guerins plan, but ive been saying for over a year now hes retooling, while trying to stay competitive in the meantime, and it would probably take a few years. Every move hes made has fit this "change the culture, change the team retool"

Saying you cannot see Guerin's plan and Guerin not having a plan are two different things.

 

[GuerinUp]

1C problem was never addressed because the Wild never drafted 1Cs aside from Koivu (hit) and Sheppard (bust). Everything else is a distraction.

Guerin comes in and drafts (1) Rossi and (2) Khusnutdinov, and he took swings on (3) Bankier and (4) Pillar.

For comparison, prior to Guerin, the Wild drafted JEE, Khovanov, Shaw, Kunin if you thought he was a center despite his non-existent playmaking, and a lot of trash. No guys with 1C upside.

maybeeee you could argue khovanov is skilled enough if the stars align

 

[GuerinUp]

Saying you cannot see Guerin's plan and Guerin not having a plan are two different things.

true, ive always thought hes had both. and is very good at media smokescreens

 

[Bazeek]

1C problem was never addressed because the Wild never drafted 1Cs aside from Koivu (hit) and Sheppard (bust). Everything else is a distraction.

I don't know what this means. Drafting and developing your top center is definitely the most reliable approach, but there are teams that acquire them via other means. The Blues won a cup with one not that long ago.

Either way, while I don't expect Guerin to have solved this after 2 years on the job, so far Rossi is the only thing he's added that has a shot to fill that hole. If he doesn't work there's still no sign of a path forward there.