Management Bill Guerin

[nickschultzfan]

I don't know what this means. Drafting and developing your top center is definitely the most reliable approach, but there are teams that acquire them via other means. The Blues won a cup with one not that long ago.

Either way, while I don't expect Guerin to have solved this after 2 years on the job, so far Rossi is the only thing he's added that has a shot to fill that hole. If he doesn't work there's still no sign of a path forward there.

If this is a genuine question, I will answer it.

Avoiding "via other means" activities is critical because of the hidden indirect affect it has - it is a distraction in the moment when opportunity presents itself. Right at the moment of striking, it gives bad managers an easy out because they think they have other options (when they do not). This is deadly. Right at the moment of closing, they let the opportunity pass, and go back to their time fillers.

Drafting carries this exact risk. Right at the moment a team could be drafting that 1C, they flinch, get worried that they will be viewed as "reaching" or "missing" that elite D or W, and instead draft that D or W, telling themselves that they will get the 1C on the backend. That is the failure.

It like the guy who never talks to any girls because he tells himself that he can always get a prettier girl another time. Truth is he never gets any girl.

 

[thestonedkoala]

why dont you reread what youre replying to. NONE of those players you mentioned were ufas

You mean that Wennberg and Coleman didn't sign with other teams?

 

[GuerinUp]

You mean that Wennberg and Coleman didn't sign with other teams?

are wennberg or coleman 1c's or even 2c's for that matter?

no.

 

[Digitalbooya]

So why buy out Suter if personality isn't a big deal?

Suter fell off a cliff in terms of production. His offensive production from two seasons ago to last season was essentially cut in half and his defense wasn't as spectacular as people think with his decline in skating.

The Kunin trade reminds me of the Granlund/Fiala trade. There should have been more there.

A trade where we win big despite people thinking we should have gotten more?

Guerin traded Kunin for a 2nd round pick that he used to draft a promising center, and then re-signed an equivalent player in Hartman for half the price.

This is incorrect. There was so much more involved in this.

 

[thestonedkoala]

are wennberg or coleman 1c's or even 2c's for that matter?

no.

Are they better than Rask? Can they be decent placeholders as Rossi can develop?

 

[GuerinUp]

Are they better than Rask? Can they be decent placeholders as Rossi can develop?

why on earth would you commit anything of value for a lateral move? i have never understood this mindset. You want our team to be better, yet keep wanting to sign mediocre players.

 

[Minnewildsota]

In hindsight, it worked out fine. But that doesn't mean that at the time, it wasn't a huge risk. Kunin could have just as easily stayed healthy and had a good season for Nashville while offering all the same things the Wild needed at the time. Maybe the scouts were convinced that Kunin would never live up to that but obviously Nashville disagreed and traded for him. At this rate he will never benefit from the 2nd round pick, someone else will.

1) News Flash: All trades are risky.
2) Says you

 

[Bazeek]

If this is a genuine question, I will answer it.

Avoiding "via other means" activities is critical because of the hidden indirect affect it has - it is a distraction in the moment when opportunity presents itself. Right at the moment of striking, it gives bad managers an easy out because they think they have other options (when they do not). This is deadly. Right at the moment of closing, they let the opportunity pass, and go back to their time fillers.

Drafting carries this exact risk. Right at the moment a team could be drafting that 1C, they flinch, get worried that they will be viewed as "reaching" or "missing" that elite D or W, and instead draft that D or W, telling themselves that they will get the 1C on the backend. That is the failure.

It like the guy who never talks to any girls because he tells himself that he can always get a prettier girl another time. Truth is he never gets any girl.

I'm not going to lie, this sounds like what I hear from middle managers who just read The Book of 5 Rings Or watched A Beautiful Mind.

But I agree with the need for decisiveness and the will to commit to a course of action. Still, if that definitive course of action for acquiring a 1C is the draft that has implications on a whole lot of other decisions, not the least of which is how to handle Kaprizov and Fiala. Especially when the 4-year forecast includes a flat cap and a cumulative $50m in dead cap space. Guerin can't just declare Rossi a 1C by fiat. There's still a massive amount of uncertainty around what exactly he'll turn into, so proceeding under the assumption that he'll work out with no Plan B seems pretty bad to me.

 

[57special]

So, Fiala should be signed to 5/32M deal any time now?

 

[Wasted Talent]

So, Fiala should be signed to 5/32M deal any time now?

If they get a deal done before arbitration, I predict it'll happen on Monday

 

[Dickie Dunn]

1) News Flash: All trades are risky.
2) Says you

Throttle down, bud…..maybe try de-caff. We’re all just sharing thoughts and opinions here. No right or wrong answers.

 

[57special]

If they get a deal done before arbitration, I predict it'll happen on Monday

I think they are locked into arbitration by the 15th, two days before the hearing date on the 17th.

 

[Wasted Talent]

I think they are locked into arbitration by the 15th, two days before the hearing date on the 17th.

Vrana signed his contract a day before his arbitration

 

[Minnewildsota]

Throttle down, bud…..maybe try de-caff. We’re all just sharing thoughts and opinions here. No right or wrong answers.

Haha right.

 

[57special]

Vrana signed his contract a day before his arbitration

I thought it was different when it was team initiated arbitration.

 

[Wasted Talent]

I thought it was different when it was team initiated arbitration.

I'm not CBA expert so I may be wrong, but the fact it's team-elected just means the team can't walk away after a decision and the player gets to decide the term. I don't think it has any further effect than that.

 

[57special]

I'm not CBA expert so I may be wrong, but the fact it's team-elected just means the team can't walk away after a decision and the player gets to decide the term. I don't think it has any further effect than that.

I've been looking for it and can't find it, but I'm pretty sure that there was a post in the past week or so by someone(KFAN22?) who seemed to know what he was talking about(had the relevant CBA clause copy and pasted)to the effect that the term had to be locked in 48 hours before, and that the process was frozen after that till a decision.

 

[nickschultzfan]

I'm not going to lie, this sounds like what I hear from middle managers who just read The Book of 5 Rings Or watched A Beautiful Mind.

But I agree with the need for decisiveness and the will to commit to a course of action. Still, if that definitive course of action for acquiring a 1C is the draft that has implications on a whole lot of other decisions, not the least of which is how to handle Kaprizov and Fiala. Especially when the 4-year forecast includes a flat cap and a cumulative $50m in dead cap space. Guerin can't just declare Rossi a 1C by fiat. There's still a massive amount of uncertainty around what exactly he'll turn into, so proceeding under the assumption that he'll work out with no Plan B seems pretty bad to me.

No. Middle managers fail because they have Plan A, Plan B, Plan C.... Plan X, and put efforts in all of them because they fear failure and overthink instead of doing the most important thing.

Do Plan A with full effort. No half measures.

 

[MNRube]

Played center/right wing, was one of the only right-handed shots Minnesota had, was fairly young, and hadn't played an entire season for the Wild, so it was tough to tell what his ceiling was at.

Kunin right now, after another below average season, has a lot less value than he did when he moved him to Nashville. Clearly Guerin recognized this and was smart to trade him when he did. That's some good GMing right there in my book. I'd argue Marat & Hunt have more value than him alone now.

 

[Victorious Secret]

I've been looking for it and can't find it, but I'm pretty sure that there was a post in the past week or so by someone(KFAN22?) who seemed to know what he was talking about(had the relevant CBA clause copy and pasted)to the effect that the term had to be locked in 48 hours before, and that the process was frozen after that till a decision.

I have it right here, 12.9.

12.9


(b) Written Submission
The NHLPA and the League shall be responsible for ensuring compliance with
this Section 12.9(b). By no later than forty-eight (48) hours prior to the scheduled opening of the
hearing (e.g., no later than 9:00 a.m. New York time on the second day prior to the hearing for a
hearing scheduled for 9:00 a.m. New York time or 2:00 p.m....'

'(c) Election of Term.
The party against whom a salary arbitration election was filed (i.e., the Club in
Player-elected salary arbitration and the Player in Club-elected salary arbitration) shall elect in
its brief whether the salary arbitration award shall be for a one or two-year SPC.'

Each party still has their presentation, but it seems like the term is locked in at the 1-2 years, as filed.

And they can still negotiate outside, as well. Absolutely.

 

[57special]

My mistake, i'm wrong, the briefs have to be presented 48 hours before, but a negotiated contract can be worked on right up till the decision. At least , that is what Russo wrote.

Thanks, @Victorious Secret

 

[Wasted Talent]

I've been looking for it and can't find it, but I'm pretty sure that there was a post in the past week or so by someone(KFAN22?) who seemed to know what he was talking about(had the relevant CBA clause copy and pasted)to the effect that the term had to be locked in 48 hours before, and that the process was frozen after that till a decision.

They need to submit the salary filing and related papers 48 hears before the hearing, but they can still sign a contract before the arbitration hearing itself begins.

 

[Bazeek]

No. Middle managers fail because they have Plan A, Plan B, Plan C.... Plan X, and put efforts in all of them because they fear failure and overthink instead of doing the most important thing.

Do Plan A with full effort. No half measures.

Or they fail because Plan A is bad.

 

[Prior]

Yeah, and I don't necessarily think there's an ideal way to navigate this situation. When he was hired I think Guerin inherited three big problems:

1. The tail ends of the Parise and Suter contracts
2. A lack of quality centers under 30
3. The Seattle expansion draft

He responded to #1 by "collapsing the wave function": if this is going to be a problem, at least make it a predictable one that you can plan around. I tend to agree with that.

The only response to #2 has been Rossi, which is more capitalizing on circumstance than a deliberate move. In terms of addressing the current NHL roster that doesn't cut it for me, so I'm still waiting for some kind of solution here. Leaving this unaddressed for 2 years is a failure, in my opinion.

And I think #3 was handled well. Partly that's because his answer to #1 made it moot, but I thought exposing Kahkonen was a good attempt to save Soucy without making bad deals with Seattle.

So those were the problems. He also inherited two big strengths that he needed to leverage:

1. A very strong blueline.
2. Two serendipitously acquired top-line wingers (Kaprizov and Fiala)

Managing #1 was tricky because the oldest defenseman had an NMC and was also one of his (future) problems. Spurgeon's contract and replacing Suter with Goligoski isn't the worst thing that could have happened, but the end result is probably going from a top-5 blueline in the league to somewhere in the middle.

And he's currently working his way through #2, which brings us back to your original point: is there anything up Guerin's sleeve here? He's given himself certainty with the buyouts, but remaining competitive through them is going to be a massive challenge that he hasn't shown any sign of having a solution for. He hasn't solved the center issue, which he now has effectively zero maneuvering room to address for next season (again beyond putting all the chips on Rossi). And he's negotiating extensions with his two best offensive players, who will be committing to playing 4 prime years under these buyouts.

I'm still waiting for the last move to come out of that sleeve and make this whole thing look coherent, and at this point I think most of us will agree that it isn't coming. I certainly hope that this all works out for the best and the team hits on the series of low-percentage shots it still has available, but I expect 4 years on the bubble while we wait things out. For a fanbase that has lived on the bubble for over a decade, that's a bitter ****ing pill.

All of this is why sitting on your hands all year last year and not upgrading the strongest roster he is likely to ever have is a complete and utter failure from my perspective.

 

[Minnewildsota]

All of this is why sitting on your hands all year last year and not upgrading the strongest roster he is likely to ever have is a complete and utter failure from my perspective.

Hyperbole much?