Value of: Best Goalie Available - EDM

[ManofSteel55]

I wouldn't want to say with 100% certainty but I feel that this is a growth year for the Ducks, the kid has looked good in his limited opportunities and it definitely wouldn't hurt to let him take whatever games Gibson sits out down the stretch.

That said, whether in the same trade as Stolarz or separate, would want to replace him with an NHL capable goalie of some sort, so that we wouldn't be left with just Gibson and kids. Even just a veteran fringe #2/3 type for the remainder of the year.

Koskinen and ??? for Stolarz?

I actually am not sure if I do it. Koskinen is streaky but was back on one of his weeks of playing very well before his COVID diagnosis.

 

[Chainshot]

Also with Anderson/Smith the Oilers would be able to claim the oldest goaltending duo ever?

New stats for "Methuselah above expected".

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Koskinen and ??? for Stolarz?

I actually am not sure if I do it. Koskinen is streaky but was back on one of his weeks of playing very well before his COVID diagnosis.

2nd + 4th to account for both the value of Stolarz and taking on what I believe would be about 800k in unwanted salary (cost of Koskinen vs a minimum salary #2/3 goalie that would otherwise suffice for the remainder of the year).

I'd rather see the Oilers take a shot at this sort of goalie, whether it's this particular one or a similar situation. Someone who has been consistently pretty good for a couple years or more, and may just need more opportunity, as opposed to some of these retread options that haven't been good in years. Not my place to say, but it seems like Koskinen has had enough chance to prove he's the guy and hasn't done so.

 

[Kaibur]

The Oilers need a legit starter in net. Who is the closest to that and might be available?

Let's just save ourselves some time and skip the Cary Price talk.

The only stipulation is that Holland stated not too long ago he wouldn't give up a 1st or a top prospect for a rental. If you're suggesting a rental goaltender, keep that in mind.

Aaaaaaaad GO!

I picked Vejmelka 2 weeks ago and Murray last week.

This week, I'm gonna go with Stuart Skinner. Woodcroft might use him, right? And he's the right acquisition cost. Plus, you'd get a longer look at him at the NHL level before he hits waivers in a couple months.

Holland hasn't felt the need to address the goaltending so far and Oilers fans don't want to move assets if there's risk, so it's probably best just to stay the course and hope for the best.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

that will cost a first ... not many proven playoff performers available for rent

Nobody will be offering a 1st unless Chicago eats 50-%

 

[DingDongCharlie]

Nurse is the biggest embarassment

Don’t you have a bridge to guard or something?

 

[Figgy44]

Edmonton has a lot of issues stacked against them when looking at goalies. Additionally, none of the options ever look sure fire to work well with Edmonton.

1. Goalie supply is low (lots of recent retirements, long term injuries, goalies changing hands recently etc.). Quite a few teams looking to shore up goaltending right now, so prices will be higher.
2. Edmonton needs a bonafied 1A or 1B+ calibre goalie which limits their choices and may have goalies limit their destination to avoid Edmonton (per how historically goalies often turn out in Edmonton or the work load etc.).
3. Of the 1A/1B+ starters, they need a work horse (likely to platoon with Smith). They cannot afford to pursue a poor starter or a starter with poor health, so this further limits their choices.
4A. Everyone and their grandmother knows they can bend Holland over a barrel for painting himself into a corner. Goalie will cost slightly more to Edmonton than many other teams.
4B. Cap needs to be moved to fit a bonafide 1A/1B making starter money. This will add to the cost of acquiring any goalie.
5. Not all goalies in rumors are always truly available.

Options (with the slightest hints of availability)
- MAF at 50%; probably costs a mid 1st ish for the combination of MAF's calibre and salary retention. MAF is also potentially a rental if he doesn't sign an extension. Not bad option.
- Grubauer (if price is high enough)/Binnington (because Husso?) probably costs around a late first to mid 2nd ish to acquire. Might still cost extra to move Koskinen. Might need to add extra to get the deal going in that it's not really know if these guys are readily available. Both should be upgrades to Koskinen.
- Georgiev/Vanacek/Francouz/Merzlikins/Korpisalo etc. probably cost a late first to mid 2nd ish to acquire all in (acquisition and moving cap space). But at the same time, it's not known if these guys are readily available either which might mean an additional premium is required to shake them loose. However, if acquired, they should do reasonably well and be an upgrade to Koskinen.
- Reimer/Holtby/Khudobin/Murray might cost around a late first to mid 2nd ish and salary retention. Might still cost extra to dump Koskinen. Potential to do well, but also potential to "crash" as well (ie: on par with Koskinen).
- Varly/Mrazek/Raanta might be available and might cost around a late first to mid 2nd ish and slight salary retention. Might still cost extra to dump Koskinen. Should do well, but slightly higher risk potential for loss of goalie to injury (not the best to have as a work horse without a good 2nd goalie or a good goalie prospect).

If I'm Edmonton, if looking budget/value, I am looking to see which is chasing a starter or platoon upgrade and what might shake free from that carousel. Someone doing a goalie upgrade might release a goalie that's slightly better than Koskinen.

Otherwise, I think the next best to pursue might be to pay a big price on MAF as a rental or see if you can pry Grubauer/Binnington as they are the better of the legit starters available without as lengthy injury risks. The last option IMO that might make some sense is a Murray/Koskinen swap and see if the change of scenery helps Murray. Unfortunately, none of these moves look sure fire or are fully known to be available.

 

[TFHockey]

Edmonton has a lot of issues stacked against them when looking at goalies. Additionally, none of the options ever look sure fire to work well with Edmonton.

1. Goalie supply is low (lots of recent retirements, long term injuries, goalies changing hands recently etc.). Quite a few teams looking to shore up goaltending right now, so prices will be higher.
2. Edmonton needs a bonafied 1A or 1B+ calibre goalie which limits their choices and may have goalies limit their destination to avoid Edmonton (per how historically goalies often turn out in Edmonton or the work load etc.).
3. Of the 1A/1B+ starters, they need a work horse (likely to platoon with Smith). They cannot afford to pursue a poor starter or a starter with poor health, so this further limits their choices.
4A. Everyone and their grandmother knows they can bend Holland over a barrel for painting himself into a corner. Goalie will cost slightly more to Edmonton than many other teams.
4B. Cap needs to be moved to fit a bonafide 1A/1B making starter money. This will add to the cost of acquiring any goalie.
5. Not all goalies in rumors are always truly available.

Options (with the slightest hints of availability)
- MAF at 50%; probably costs a mid 1st ish for the combination of MAF's calibre and salary retention. MAF is also potentially a rental if he doesn't sign an extension. Not bad option.
- Grubauer (if price is high enough)/Binnington (because Husso?) probably costs around a late first to mid 2nd ish to acquire. Might still cost extra to move Koskinen. Might need to add extra to get the deal going in that it's not really know if these guys are readily available. Both should be upgrades to Koskinen.
- Georgiev/Vanacek/Francouz/Merzlikins/Korpisalo etc. probably cost a late first to mid 2nd ish to acquire all in (acquisition and moving cap space). But at the same time, it's not known if these guys are readily available either which might mean an additional premium is required to shake them loose. However, if acquired, they should do reasonably well and be an upgrade to Koskinen.
- Reimer/Holtby/Khudobin/Murray might cost around a late first to mid 2nd ish and salary retention. Might still cost extra to dump Koskinen. Potential to do well, but also potential to "crash" as well (ie: on par with Koskinen).
- Varly/Mrazek/Raanta might be available and might cost around a late first to mid 2nd ish and slight salary retention. Might still cost extra to dump Koskinen. Should do well, but slightly higher risk potential for loss of goalie to injury (not the best to have as a work horse without a good 2nd goalie or a good goalie prospect).

If I'm Edmonton, if looking budget/value, I am looking to see which is chasing a starter or platoon upgrade and what might shake free from that carousel. Someone doing a goalie upgrade might release a goalie that's slightly better than Koskinen.

Otherwise, I think the next best to pursue might be to pay a big price on MAF as a rental or see if you can pry Grubauer/Binnington as they are the better of the legit starters available without as lengthy injury risks. The last option IMO that might make some sense is a Murray/Koskinen swap and see if the change of scenery helps Murray. Unfortunately, none of these moves look sure fire or are fully known to be available.

Well that is a long post. There are a number of things wrong with these assumptions.

Goalie supply: With more teams out of the running (as opposed to last year) there will be fewer buyers. This affects all positions actually. The cost for acquiring a guy isn't as high in that kind of market. So the cost for guys moving last year won't be comparable to this one. This both helps the Oilers (getting a goaltender) and hurts them (moving Barrie won't land a Ristolainen-like return)

I think thinking Holland "gets bent over" is a little trite. GMs always try and maximize their returns. He was asked for overpays for two different goalies and turned them down. Does that sound like a guy getting bent? Philly wanted more than a 5th for Jones and Holland said no. He is holding his ground.

As for the cost of acquiring one of the guys bolded we literally just found out the asking price for Korpisalo as a 2nd and a 3rd. Not a late 1st or a mid 2nd. So I suspect the above valuations are inflated a bit.

 

[Macheteops]

Oh I know Larsson didn't want to be in Edmonton anymore but replacing him with the Keith/Ceci combo was a disaster. Terrible waste of cap space when you look at what defenseman that were available this last off season. The Oilers need to fix that defense but I don't think Holland is the GM to do that unfortunately.

Most of Larsson’s years in Edmonton he wasn’t very good. I don’t get this take now that he left that he was some elite D!? I haven’t followed him in Seattle so maybe he is playing better. He did have a solid last year in Edmonton but I didn’t lose sleep over him not returning

The Keith trade was terrible. No complaints with Ceci. He has been decent I think

 

[jonlin]

Pulju+Koskinen

for

Klingberg + Holtby

 

[DingDongCharlie]

Most of Larsson’s years in Edmonton he wasn’t very good. I don’t get this take now that he left that he was some elite D!? I haven’t followed him in Seattle so maybe he is playing better. He did have a solid last year in Edmonton but I didn’t lose sleep over him not returning

The Keith trade was terrible. No complaints with Ceci. He has been decent I think

I’ve never seen any Oil posters call him anything close to elite. His last season here won a lot of us over though myself included. A physical minute eating top 4 rd at 4 million. Losing that hurts. Especially when the D core is questionable to begin with. The domino effect that it put us in sucked too. I don’t mind Ceci, but we might have targeted him anyways. Larsson leaving opened the cap/need for another RD for Holland to circle back on Barrie. I’d take Larsson over Barrie 100/100 times. It’s been said Barrie was the Klefbom LTIR replacement but that was Keith…unfortunately and another terrible story.

I think the teams fortunes to this point would have been drastically different if we had retained Larsson and had a healthy Klefbom.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I picked Vejmelka 2 weeks ago and Murray last week.

This week, I'm gonna go with Stuart Skinner. Woodcroft might use him, right? And he's the right acquisition cost. Plus, you'd get a longer look at him at the NHL level before he hits waivers in a couple months.

Holland hasn't felt the need to address the goaltending so far and Oilers fans don't want to move assets if there's risk, so it's probably best just to stay the course and hope for the best.

The issue is that this year, Skinner is the only reliable goalie the Oilers have had. Smith has been injured and awful when healthy. Koskinen has been good at times and horrendous at others. So while Skinner may be half of the solution, he isn't the only solution.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Allen ?

His numbers are scary, but the Habs are f***ing brutal.

He's been pretty good for the Habs when he plays this year.

Cost controlled, too.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Get Samsonov, overpay a hit considering he's not paying well now but you'll never get a chance at him if he is playing well.

 

[McJedi]

Savoie + 2022 2nd for MAF at 50%. Oil add an expiring contract to make cap math balance.

 

[Figgy44]

Well that is a long post. There are a number of things wrong with these assumptions.

Goalie supply: With more teams out of the running (as opposed to last year) there will be fewer buyers. This affects all positions actually. The cost for acquiring a guy isn't as high in that kind of market. So the cost for guys moving last year won't be comparable to this one. This both helps the Oilers (getting a goaltender) and hurts them (moving Barrie won't land a Ristolainen-like return)

I think thinking Holland "gets bent over" is a little trite. GMs always try and maximize their returns. He was asked for overpays for two different goalies and turned them down. Does that sound like a guy getting bent? Philly wanted more than a 5th for Jones and Holland said no. He is holding his ground.

As for the cost of acquiring one of the guys bolded we literally just found out the asking price for Korpisalo as a 2nd and a 3rd. Not a late 1st or a mid 2nd. So I suspect the above valuations are inflated a bit.

All I'm saying is the odds aren't in Edmonton's favor in obtaining a goalie for a reasonable price. If the Oilers get a great deal on a good goalie for cheap. Awesome for them. But market wise, the prices are insane right now. Almost like the value of Pokemon cards 3 years ago vs today.

For the bolded, isn't it pretty close to being on par? Korpisalo I put in a group that I said value wise would be a 2nd to a late 1st all in for acquisition AND moving cap. If the price is a 2nd and 3rd and you have to pay another 2nd or third to get someone to take Koskinen and/or other cap space, isn't that pretty close to the equivalent to a mid 2nd or a late 1st? Might be slightly high by a round to be generally conservative, but my intention wasn't intended to be wildly unreasonable. Depends on your definition of "a bit". IMO, I assume my aim isn't always bulls eye, but still on the target rather than missing it completely?

And a GM wanting more than a 5th for Jones (who you should not take for free) is kinda the definition of Holland looking like other GMs looking at him as a target to maximize returns to the point of bending him over. It's not just saying it to be cute or a rival or whatever.

Other GMs (ie: Avs) paid a heck of a price for a goalie and were basically bent over themselves. Holland isn't specifically special IMO. But he's walking into that type of market. Holland straight up is in a bizarre scenario right now where there's going to be serious premiums on certain goalies and a significant and recent drop of the population of some of the top tier goalies in the league. Many teams had to back fill the position. Holland is in a situation where he might be navigating several bidding wars, dealing with teams who don't actually need to move a goalie so need extra to grease the wheels, or just jerks of GMs looking to snake oil him. This is probably the reality of any GM looking at a potential top 20 goalie right now. Again, that's not unique to Holland. It's also not even taking into account the possibility of an insanity move if Holland's job is on the line.

You say that as more teams fall out of the race, more are willing to sell and fewer buyers. Yeah. I kinda factored that in. But even if a team is OK selling, the goalie also has to be someone that Edmonton is willing to buy. You don't want Jones. You want Hart who likely is not available. Teams that are out or borderline that might have someone you want who is an upgrade on Koskinen and more established is likely CBJ/NYI/Dallas/Chicago/SJS/STL. Teams like Vancouver/Seattle/Philly/Detroit/Winnipeg are probably not letting go of the goalie you want. MTL/Buffalo/Ari/Ottawa/Jersey likely do not have a goalie you want to pursue. But considering that of the contending teams, at WSH/COL/CAR might be poking around for a potential upgrade potentially fueling a bidding war for anyone that Edmonton might be looking into. This not taking into account some of the out teams wouldn't mind keeping tabs on goalie prices if they want to look for a guy for the longer term so that they aren't guaranteed out again next year (ie: Maybe NJD/Ottawa off the top of my head aiming to move later stage in their rebuild).

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Well that is a long post. There are a number of things wrong with these assumptions.

Goalie supply: With more teams out of the running (as opposed to last year) there will be fewer buyers. This affects all positions actually. The cost for acquiring a guy isn't as high in that kind of market. So the cost for guys moving last year won't be comparable to this one. This both helps the Oilers (getting a goaltender) and hurts them (moving Barrie won't land a Ristolainen-like return)

I think thinking Holland "gets bent over" is a little trite. GMs always try and maximize their returns. He was asked for overpays for two different goalies and turned them down. Does that sound like a guy getting bent? Philly wanted more than a 5th for Jones and Holland said no. He is holding his ground.

As for the cost of acquiring one of the guys bolded we literally just found out the asking price for Korpisalo as a 2nd and a 3rd. Not a late 1st or a mid 2nd. So I suspect the above valuations are inflated a bit.

A 2nd and 3rd isn't far off from a late first. Holland holding his ground but so is Fletcher holding his ground on Martin Jones (who sucks and isn't even worth a 5th).

 

[ManofSteel55]

Savoie + 2022 2nd for MAF at 50%. Oil add an expiring contract to make cap math balance.

Change that Savoie to somone else similar and I'm game. I'm not interested in moving Savoie at all, we won't get fair value for him.

 

[Figgy44]

Allen ?

His numbers are scary, but the Habs are f***ing brutal.

He's been pretty good for the Habs when he plays this year.

Cost controlled, too.

Isn't Allen injured for like 2 months? I'd also be worried he's dealing with yips/getting back to speed or whatever when he returns.

Get Samsonov, overpay a hit considering he's not paying well now but you'll never get a chance at him if he is playing well.

He's available? Seems like a good target, but I assumed he's not available.

Savoie + 2022 2nd for MAF at 50%. Oil add an expiring contract to make cap math balance.

Run, don't walk if Chicago is OK with that. MAF is a very good goalie and his style would probably work reasonably well with the system Edmonton deploys as well IMO. I think you guys would be quite a bit scarier if you added a guy like MAF.

 

[TFHockey]

All I'm saying is the odds aren't in Edmonton's favor in obtaining a goalie for a reasonable price. If the Oilers get a great deal on a good goalie for cheap. Awesome for them. But market wise, the prices are insane right now. Almost like the value of Pokemon cards 3 years ago vs today.

For the bolded, isn't it pretty close to being on par? Korpisalo I put in a group that I said value wise would be a 2nd to a late 1st all in for acquisition AND moving cap. If the price is a 2nd and 3rd and you have to pay another 2nd or third to get someone to take Koskinen and/or other cap space, isn't that pretty close to the equivalent to a mid 2nd or a late 1st? Might be slightly high by a round to be generally conservative, but my intention wasn't intended to be wildly unreasonable. Depends on your definition of "a bit". IMO, I assume my aim isn't always bulls eye, but still on the target rather than missing it completely?

And a GM wanting more than a 5th for Jones (who you should not take for free) is kinda the definition of Holland looking like other GMs looking at him as a target to maximize returns to the point of bending him over. It's not just saying it to be cute or a rival or whatever.

Other GMs (ie: Avs) paid a heck of a price for a goalie and were basically bent over themselves. Holland isn't specifically special IMO. But he's walking into that type of market. Holland straight up is in a bizarre scenario right now where there's going to be serious premiums on certain goalies and a significant and recent drop of the population of some of the top tier goalies in the league. Many teams had to back fill the position. Holland is in a situation where he might be navigating several bidding wars, dealing with teams who don't actually need to move a goalie so need extra to grease the wheels, or just jerks of GMs looking to snake oil him. This is probably the reality of any GM looking at a potential top 20 goalie right now. Again, that's not unique to Holland. It's also not even taking into account the possibility of an insanity move if Holland's job is on the line.

You say that as more teams fall out of the race, more are willing to sell and fewer buyers. Yeah. I kinda factored that in. But even if a team is OK selling, the goalie also has to be someone that Edmonton is willing to buy. You don't want Jones. You want Hart who likely is not available. Teams that are out or borderline that might have someone you want who is an upgrade on Koskinen and more established is likely CBJ/NYI/Dallas/Chicago/SJS/STL. Teams like Vancouver/Seattle/Philly/Detroit/Winnipeg are probably not letting go of the goalie you want. MTL/Buffalo/Ari/Ottawa/Jersey likely do not have a goalie you want to pursue. But considering that of the contending teams, at WSH/COL/CAR might be poking around for a potential upgrade potentially fueling a bidding war for anyone that Edmonton might be looking into. This not taking into account some of the out teams wouldn't mind keeping tabs on goalie prices if they want to look for a guy for the longer term so that they aren't guaranteed out again next year (ie: Maybe NJD/Ottawa off the top of my head aiming to move later stage in their rebuild).

Not an unreasonable post.

Yup. Dead on.

I am hoping NYI, Dallas or STL are going to move the guy I want. No idea if they are willing or that Holland can pull it off.

I am at least a little happy to see him refuse overpayments for guys like Jones or Korpisalo who are not upgrades on Koskinen IMHO.

 

[McJedi]

Isn't Allen injured for like 2 months? I'd also be worried he's dealing with yips/getting back to speed or whatever when he returns.



He's available? Seems like a good target, but I assumed he's not available.



Run, don't walk if Chicago is OK with that. MAF is a very good goalie and his style would probably work reasonably well with the system Edmonton deploys as well IMO. I think you guys would be quite a bit scarier if you added a guy like MAF.

I figured it’s like the equivalent of two mid second rounders. Feels reasonable.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Feels kind of like 05/06 in that we keep losing and goaltending is a big reason for it.

Doesn't feel like 05/06 in that I don't think getting a starting goalie fixes enough of our problems.

 

[TFHockey]

I figured it’s like the equivalent of two mid second rounders. Feels reasonable.

Allen isn't much of an upgrade.

Isn't Allen injured for like 2 months? I'd also be worried he's dealing with yips/getting back to speed or whatever when he returns.



He's available? Seems like a good target, but I assumed he's not available.



Run, don't walk if Chicago is OK with that. MAF is a very good goalie and his style would probably work reasonably well with the system Edmonton deploys as well IMO. I think you guys would be quite a bit scarier if you added a guy like MAF.

I'd trade Savoie+ for MAF anytime.

 

[66-30-33]

Oilers should trade for Matt Murray.

 

[Figgy44]

Change that Savoie to somone else similar and I'm game. I'm not interested in moving Savoie at all, we won't get fair value for him.

... Do you want fair value on Savoie? Or do you want playoffs? If someone like Savoie keeps you from getting a legit goalie, OK. Your first rounder gets more valuable too, that's a bonus.

Not an unreasonable post.

Yup. Dead on.

I am hoping NYI, Dallas or STL are going to move the guy I want. No idea if they are willing or that Holland can pull it off.

I am at least a little happy to see him refuse overpayments for guys like Jones or Korpisalo who are not upgrades on Koskinen IMHO.

MAF, Varly, Binnington, Holtby seem to be the most logical targets IMO. Holtby's time in Vancouver should garner pause though.

If Reimer is available, I consider him the same tier as Holtby (TBH, most goalies are in this specific tier). I think Korpisalo is in the same range as Holtby, but due to age, I think he has a slight chance of moving up a tier into the Binnington+ range. However, I can see why the Oilers aren't as interested in the current price if Korpisalo isn't a guarantee as of right now to be an upgrade to Koskinen even if he's one of the better potential long term options.

Allen isn't much of an upgrade.

I'd trade Savoie+ for MAF anytime.

I think you quoted the wrong guy talking about Allen. He was the one who suggested Savoie+ ish for MAF @ 50%.

Feels kind of like 05/06 in that we keep losing and goaltending is a big reason for it.

Doesn't feel like 05/06 in that I don't think getting a starting goalie fixes enough of our problems.

Then be glad Tippet gone is part of the solution to the problems?