Identifying forward prospects outside the top-10 is the Ducks' scouting problem. Some of the problem lies in scouting, some in the player not developing after being drafted, some in the NHL threshold was too big a jump (Steel), some in the player giving up after blowing up in the NHL, in a good way, like Comtois, and some got hit with the injury/concussion bug like Jones and Kase. Terry took his time to become established in his D+7 season and stay that way. Right now, we have one hope in 2020, Rd 2 RW Colangelo in panning out.
Anaheim hasn't had problems drafting forwards in the top-10 in recent years. Zegras in 2019, Mac in 2021, and Carlsson in 2023. Zegras dropped in the draft, Mac was a considered a "massive reach", and Carlsson was a surprise pick to take over Fantilli. In fact, Pronman still puts Fantilli in a higher tier level than Carlsson this past summer. Outside of Ducks' community, many believe Fantilli is the better player and should have been taken #2 overall.
The drafting of Sennecke higher than expected appears to be a common theme for the Ducks' scouting group. Then tack on the trait of finding players who are late bloomers by our scouting staff, then Sennecke also fits that trait - although, the late risers we have gone after are late in the first round and beyond.
Sennecke's 2nd half performance didn't sell on me for a player in the top-3 initially, which is why I preferred the Lindstrom. I don't know if the higher production in the 2nd half of the season was due to being paired with Calum Ritchie (i think that's his teammate) or due to his brain finally being in sync with his taller frame. But after doing more digging on Sennecke, it is kinda difficult to not like what he's done on the ice b/c he kept his short kid skills as he grew from 5'10 to 6'2.75" over two seasons and could still be growing. I can't see the physicality part of his game because he's got no meat to be dishing out a power forward, but maybe the meat and muscle will eventually come once he stops growing taller.
Sennecke | | | | | | | | |
---|
Season | Games | G | A | Pts | PPG | | +/- | G/GP |
D+0 | 63 | 27 | 41 | 68 | 1.08 | | 33 | 0.43 |
| | | | | | | | |
Oct-Jan | 42 | 15 | 24 | 39 | 0.93 | | 16 | 0.36 |
Feb-Mar | 21 | 12 | 17 | 29 | 1.38 | | 17 | 0.57 |
. | | | | | | | | |
Playoffs | 16 | 10 | 12 | 22 | 1.38 | | 9 | 0.63 |
There is a slight concern about Sennecke being selected in the top-5/10, which is the lack of goal scoring. Brad Allen from Hockey Prospects brought this concern up in a podcast, but felt comfortable when Sennecke did improve his goal scoring in the 2nd half of the season. (I shared the splits in the table above.)
Another factor in drafting Sennecke is height. Here are the forward heights for selected in the top-10.
1. C Celebrini is 6'0
3. RW Sennecke is 6'2.75 (could still be growing)
4. C Lindstrom is 6'3.25 (back injury)
5. RW Demidov is 5'11 (Russia issue)
6. C Iginla is 5'11.75
8. C Catton is 5'10
Drafting Sennecke is a gamble, but not a high roller stakes kinda gamble. Sennecke's got top end tools and hockey sense. He was projected to go in the teens, implying that Sennecke has a very high floor to be drafted into the teens, but also due to a small sample of that high end play in his two years in the OHL. The gamble is if Sennecke can be more than the current floor he's at today.