Blue Jays Discussion: Back in Toronto AND things are happening (trade deadline @ 4pm ET/1pm PT today)

[metafour]

Keith Law on the trade:

The Blue Jays continued an aggressive strategy at the trade deadline, sending their first overall pick from 2020 and one of the main pieces they got for Marcus Stroman to the Twins for starter José Bérrios.

Bérrios has been an incredibly consistent, reliable starter since becoming a full-time big leaguer in 2017; his ERA in each of the last five seasons has been between 3.48 (this year) and 4.00 (last year), and he hasn’t missed a start. He’s a command right-hander with a three-pitch mix, nothing truly plus except for maybe his curveball (I’d call it a strong grade-55 pitch), at his best when he’s locating his fastball away from the heart of the zone. Toronto’s rotation was supposed to have Nate Pearson in it by now, but with word that the Jays are going to move Pearson to the bullpen for the rest of this year, and Alek Manoah still on the IL with a back injury, they had a clear need for a reliable starter. Bérrios gives them innings and above-average run prevention, good enough to be their No. 3.

The Twins get two of the Jays’ top prospects coming into 2021, Austin Martin, No. 12 on my recent ranking of the top 50 prospects in baseball, and right-hander Simeon Woods-Richardson, but both guys who have slipped a little bit in Toronto’s and the industry’s eyes. Martin was the fifth overall pick in 2020, and was atop my draft board thanks to his combination of positional versatility, athleticism, and extremely high contact rates. The Jays assigned him right to Double A this spring to start his pro career; between that and a hand injury, he got off to a slow start, but he’s been improving as the season has progressed, hitting .289/.446/.398 since June 1st, .296/.500/.352 in 18 games so far in July.

His approach at the plate is superb and he has great hand-eye coordination to make contact, so there’s a high floor here, with several teams showing an increased interest in high-contact hitters in the last year or so. His swing has become more inside-out this year than it was at Vanderbilt, and he’s not using his legs enough to drive the ball, which explains the low ISO and overall lack of power. He’s played shortstop and centerfield this year for New Hampshire, and played third base in college, but his throwing has been inconsistent and I think center or second base are his two most likely long-term positions. His hands were always plus at third, and second may make the best use of his skills. I see a clear regular and leadoff hitter, with more upside if the Twins can get him in his legs more, but a muted ceiling until that happens.

Woods-Richardson’s velocity picked up after the Mets drafted him in 2018 and made him a full-time pitcher, but it has backed up since then and he’s been more fringe-average with his fastball along with a 50/55 changeup. He’s normally a strike-thrower, although this year he’s walked 13 percent of batters he’s faced after an aggressive placement in Double A, since he had just six starts in High A to close out 2019. His breaking ball remains below average, and his arm is extremely late relative to his landing leg, which, along with some stiffness through release, limits his velocity and north-south command. I think it all points to a more probable relief future than a starting one. That’s an everyday player with strong OBP skills and a small chance for some power, and a potentially above-average reliever with a small chance to start. For a year and a half of Bérrios, that sounds about right, even if these two prospects are more famous than their skills merit right now.

 

[Deebo]

 

[TF97]

Yeah I remember reading that his arm has been a huge issue for him.

Rosenthal had a good article on this the other day.

“His throws look off and have all year,” one rival executive said.

Statcast numbers support the executive’s observation. The average velocity on the top 10 percent of Story’s throws is 78.1 mph, down from 80.4 last season and an average of 85.4 the four previous years. More traditional numbers also point to a decline: Story has made six throwing errors, one short of his career-high.

The obvious question is whether Story is injured. He was on the injured list from May 29 to June 10 with right elbow inflammation, and also missed time with elbow trouble in September 2018. But Rockies GM Bill Schmidt, in a text message on Monday, said, “He’s healthy as far as I’m aware.”

And that's without the offensive issues he's had. The Rockies are a mess of an organization and after Arenado they probably didn't want to trade Story without getting a haul.

 

[Muston Atthews]

so odd

 

[Jojalu]

Is it possible they were underwhelmed by Martin's debut and wanted to sell high before his stock fell?

Not possible. 100% fact. Very worried he will never develop power.

Single hitters don't fly anymore.

 

[Jojalu]

Berrios, 27
1.5 years control
3.4 WAR per year
Return: #16 prospect + #68

Stroman, 28
1.5 years control
3.4 WAR per year
Return: 0 top 100 prospects

They did land Richardson and Kay.

Richardson was 18 at the time and wasn't on the top 100 yet, but he did get there.

Steep price for sure, but still not a for sure thing either pan out.

 

[Swervin81]

Not a huge fan of the trade. I guess the FO saw question marks with his Martin's defence + lack of pop + K's as well as SWR's bad season and from that perspective, I guess it's not the worst move in the world to pick up a guy with 1.5 yrs of control left while your prospects still have shine to some team, but still... the .5 isn't as much of a concern to me because I just don't see a playoff team here this year and with the impending CBA, it would be the most Jays thing in the world if players accrued service time over a lockout and we traded a haul for a rental.

I wouldn't mind this so much if we were getting 2.5 yrs of Berrios under control, but I'm not a fan unless Berrios ends up being extended. I do like what Berrios brings, though.

 

[SDig14]

Well, I'm expecting Kevin Smith called up to take a shot at 3B shortly. See if he can stay hot.

 

[TF97]

I wouldn't be shocked if we see some veterans end up on waivers late into August like we did in 2019. Two candidates for that might be Asdrubal Cabrera and Tyler Clippard in Arizona. Both might be upgrades in a few weeks if there are injuries or poor performances.

 

[trellaine201]

Glad we didn’t sell the farm today. Need to look to 2022/23

 

[phillipmike]

Added 4 pen arms in the last few weeks. Crazy

Cimber, Richards, Hand and Soria.

Romano
Hand
Borucki
Richards
Mayza
Soria
Cimber
Dolis

Saucedo, Sneed, Hatch and Thornton likely will be sent down. I doubt they come back but if Merryweather and Pearson are healthy, thats a great pen. Would love to see Smith kill it at 3B and move Biggio to utility.

 

[TF97]

Anderson Espinoza was traded from San Diego to the Cubs for Jake Marisnick. Only a few seasons ago he was a top 10 60 FV prospect in baseball. Injuries have really killed his value the last few years.

 

[Hoverhand]

you've got to be kidding me.

 

[TF97]

Jordan Luplow to Tampa Bay. He will go back to being a 200 wRC+ bat against left handed pitching because it's the Rays.

 

[canucksfan100]

Disappointed that the Jay's didn't do more.

They're gonna probably lose Semien this offseason but only have 60M, with Ray the only noteworthy guy to resign

Really should make a big play this offseason for one of the big bats(Story, Seager, Correa, Bryant) as most the pitchers in this pool are old.

 

[Hoverhand]

Ive always been forgiving for over paying to get legit pieces but to overpay for Berrios and then do nothing to bolster the bottom of the order is stupid. It is stupid. I don't like it.

 

[rojac]

you've got to be kidding me.

What else were you expecting them to do? They've added 2 relievers and a starter in the past 2 days.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Morgs]

Jansen
(2020)) 342.1IP -4DRS 0.2DWAR 6CS 20SB (23.1%)
(2021) 338.1IP 1DRS 0.5DWAR 3CS 18SB (14%)

"Fingers" McGuire
(2020)) 342.IP 1DRS 0.3DWAR 4CS 4SB (50%)
(2021) 337.IP 2DRS 0.5DWAR 10CS 7SB (41.2%)

McGuire is equal to him statistically in every defensive category except throwing where he absolutely demolishes him.

Aka, McGuire is not a significantly better defender.

 

[Hoverhand]

What else were you expecting them to do? They've added 2 relievers and a starter in the past 2 days.

Upgrade at 3B or anything to add to the bottom of the lineup.

Something that will lead to them making the playoffs.

 

[TF97]

Upgrade at 3B or anything to add to the bottom of the lineup.

Something that will lead to them making the playoffs.

I am fine with them not upgrading 3B if it means they actually give Smith a chance. It is reaching the point where Grichuk (despite having been better the last few days) and Biggio are doing nothing but hurting your playoff race. Thankfully Dickerson is coming who should take playing time vs RHP away from Randal but Smith deserves a shot at 3B.

 

[Hoverhand]

I am fine with them not upgrading 3B if it means they actually give Smith a chance. It is reaching the point where Grichuk (despite having been better the last few days) and Biggio are doing nothing but hurting your playoff race. Thankfully Dickerson is coming who should take playing time vs RHP away from Randal but Smith deserves a shot at 3B.

That's ideally what they will do but if they were going to give Smith this shot, I would have preferred they not waited until post deadline. If he comes up and struggles, then we're right back to where we started.

As I stated earlier, I can forgive overpaying for Berrios as long as this year was a true go for it year but... they didn't do anything to supplement the offence outside of Dickerson. It's just such a weird deadline to me.

 

[theaub]

This is a strange trade lol

 

[TF97]

Very intrigued to see the pieces going to Pittsburgh here

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Aka, McGuire is not a significantly better defender.

If you and I are both equal in boxing ability in almost every facet, but I destroy you in number of TKOs. I'm the better fighter.

I think you're underestimating how important the running game is. CS are outs-created and SB are extra total bases. That's the difference btw a single and a double. It's not even about the percentages, but the deterrence. People attempted to steal on Jansen 28 more times than McGuire over the same period. When they instal robo umps to eliminate pitch-framing Jansen will be even more useless.