News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[ToneDog]

It's interesting to me that Dahlin is on a worse team than Matthews, no issue with a bridge and there is a handshake deal rumored to be in place for July 1st for max term of 8 years...

We have a better city and team and there is all the "Will Matthews sign?" or "Matthews wants the highest AAV but not max term" BS - You either wanna be here or don't.

That is the first question Tre should ask him. If he is being honest (see Matthew Tkachuk) and wants out, you should be shopping him to a team of his choice already.

 

[myleafs]

When might this occur?

probably just another 5-7 yrs of running it back and the cup will be ours....guaranteed.....no refunds

 

[WTFMAN99]

That is the first question Tre should ask him. If he is being honest (see Matthew Tkachuk) and wants out, you should be shopping him to a team of his choice already.

Matthews has said publicly whenever he's had a chance that he wants to be here. I just don't want to be all about bankrolling him either because saying that is one thing but then privately the agent is saying 3-4 year deal at 12.7M per...that doesn't scream committed.

 

[Fogelhund]

It's interesting to me that Dahlin is on a worse team than Matthews, no issue with a bridge and there is a handshake deal rumored to be in place for July 1st for max term of 8 years...

We have a better city and team and there is all the "Will Matthews sign?" or "Matthews wants the highest AAV but not max term" BS - You either wanna be here or don't.

Noting, just because it isn't public, doesn't mean that there isn't an agreement in principle... Often the Leafs org has been pretty good about keeping things quiet.

The other question with Matthews being... is he damaged good at this point? Last years version of Matthews isn't worth a raise. The unknown being, if he gets surgery on his wrist again, or whatever rehab, do we get the good version of him back?

 

[Gilmour1996]

Handshake deal evening of June 30. GM believes him so trade talk cancelled. Next day AM has decided he wants more money and less term so deal now in limbo.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Noting, just because it isn't public, doesn't mean that there isn't an agreement in principle... Often the Leafs org has been pretty good about keeping things quiet.

The other question with Matthews being... is he damaged good at this point? Last years version of Matthews isn't worth a raise. The unknown being, if he gets surgery on his wrist again, or whatever rehab, do we get the good version of him back?

Was he even a top 10 player last year?

 

[PromisedLand]

Why a team like Vegas is so Cup competitive .. 4 X final 4 appearances in 6 years of existence including 2 SCF and currently 1 game away from hoisting the Cup .. Its all about Salary Cap management and building a deep team.

Playoff scoring Vegas.

View attachment 717055

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Vegas 2 big expensive forwards Eichel and Stone are among their leading scorers doing their part as expected. But there are no 15% CH% or $11 mil players here either. However now look at their depth forwards in cap cost vs contribution in the playoffs.

Between Marchessault (@$5 mil AAV) 13 playoff goals + Karlsson (@$5.9 mil AAV) 11 playoff goals and Stephenson (@$2.75 mil AAV) 10 playoff goals = 34 playoff goals for $13.65 mil total Cap usage.

*** Those 3 depth players make +$2 mil AAV more combined than Auston Matthews and have outscored him 34 to 5 playoff goals this year. **

Pick Matthews and any Maple Leaf forward making $2 mil or less and tell me for $13.6 mil cap combined who you expect will score 34 goals in just 21 games in any NHL playoff season? When Matthews goes scoreless in 5 games it no surprise Leafs are into Golfing season.

Would you rather have Tavares at $11 mil AAV 4-4-8 points or Marchessault & Karlsson at $10.9 combined and 24 goals 16 assists and 40 points?

Leafs still foolishly believe they can spend 1/2 their entire salary Cap on just 4 forwards and be successful.. In fact it helps explain why the Leafs are the least successful playoff team in a Cap era instead.

Precisely right Mess. Thanks for providing more context and examples. Couldnt have said it any better!


P.S. browsing HF at work; first was using mircrosoft edge browser; HF goes ghost mode when trying to reply

Can't see anything when using edge. thought some folks would wanna know. Now am not sure if it is my work that has that setting or edge is weird to begin with. Thankfully there is also chrome on my work computer LOL

 

[PromisedLand]

Or they re-spend Matthews $13+ million like drunken sailors on UFAs...

I'd also say you're playing some 4D chess with your expectations when you not only want to sign a guy to the right AAV and term, but have enough structure that you can sell them off in a hypothetical rebuild 9 years from now.

Ideally we would have had some playoff success and evidence to say that yes "investing big cap" in Matthews or Marner etc. is a good bet because they are able to raise their game in the playoffs. From what we've seen in the last 7 years; I think we have enough evidence to exercise caution when committing massive cap to them. I wouldn't call that 4D chess but evidence based decision making.

If Matthews (and/Marner/Nylander) had taken the bull by the horns in the playoffs to really push and fight; and it was their teammates that were letting them down I see the point that lets commit significant cap to them and lets surround them with a better supporting cast.

Unfortunately, that has not been the case as evidence from the last 7 years suggests. Moreover, if we are going to go for it for either all of Matthews' year(s) or >50% of his extended term chances are we trade more futures for immediate help and we won't have much assets in either picks/prospects. Now, the question becomes how much do we want to gamble every year? For example: I did not want to trade any picks/prospects this year and remain status-quo and go with the same team to see if these guys can do some damage on their own. Dubas traded a bunch of stuff. Now we only have 3 picks in the draft and also don't have 2025 1st round pick (traded to hawks for McCabe). We also traded Sandin to keep an aging Gio and Brodie (a pending UFA this season)

Basically I am saying lets make some evidence based decisions, exercise caution, have a foresight and then execute plans effectively as much as we can. I don't mind if its called 4D chess if we can get it done though

 

[PromisedLand]

I am sure this article has been posted but...

MSN

LOVE these quotes....

"A player as soft as butter in the noon-day sun. But tough as nails at the negotiating table. "

Bob wrote, “If Matthews is worth that then [Connor] McDavid is worth triple that Matthews needs a wake-up call spoiled overrated player that’s my opinion.” Dogheels wrote, “What do you think Matthews’ numbers will look like? Will they be worth $14mil+ a year? Let’s face it. He’s no Connor.

Holy WOW. Didn't see this article. Interesting indeed !

Based on career playoff stats:

Matthews: Playoff points per 82 = 72
Playoff goals per 82 = 36

Do those stats reflect an 11.6 million dollar player?

Marner: Playoff points per 82 = 77
Playoff goals per 82 = (lol) 16.... SIXTEEN!!!!!

Do those stats reflect a 10.9 million dollar player?

Tavares: Playoff points per 82 = (lol) 58
Playoff goals per 82 = 29

Do those stats reflect a 11 million dollar player?

Nylander: Playoff points per 82 = 65
Playoff goals per 82 = 27

I mean, those numbers are pretty mediocre. But this is our closest contract to be "worth it" based on playoff performance. 1 out of 4 ain't bad, right Dubas? But now consider his above numbers under the mayhem of whatever his new contract will be.

Now do this with the other "superstar" players. MacKinnon. Drai. McDavid. Kucherove. Do you have any idea how much better their playoff stats are? Like, ANY idea? Come on Dekes. The problem in the playoffs is the core not living up to their contracts. THAT'S he problem. The problem Dekes is THAT. TTTTHHHHAAAATTTTT!!!!!

THAT'S the problem Dekes.

 

[Fogelhund]

Was he even a top 10 player last year?

I don't think so, no. Particularly in the playoffs.

The year before though, absolutely... and salary negotiations are far more about the last year.

My personal concern being... what will he be going forward? I'm happy to pay 21/22 Hart, Rocket version of the player $12-14, if we believe that is who we have going forward. Not so happy to pay the 22/23 version of that player more than $9.5 mil.

I'm almost in the bridge camp at this point. Three year deal, to prove you can stay healthy, and be that top guy. If it's $12 mil, ok... that's what it is. We shouldn't jump to conclusions, because the Elite level he can provide when healthy, is very rare, and unlikely to be replaced. I appreciate that if we keep him for three more years, and the injuries and lack of playoff success will hurt his trade value.

I just don't see the team blowing this all up, and starting again.. and with that in mind, it's improbable that we do see any of the four traded. It's just hope that they can find health, find a way to compete in the playoffs eventually (and we have plenty of examples of others who eventually learn), and find a way to surround them with the right pieces.

But if after three years, we are still seeing injury issues, and no playoff compete, it's time to take the whole team in a new direction.

It's gotten to the point, that even a normally pretty positive person about the team, players and management.. such as myself, just doesn't believe in it anymore. Matthews has the talent to have been one of the best Leafs of all time... I just don't know if his wrists are up to.. and Marner too, truly an elite player in many ways, but if his guy isn't scoring, it's not going to show.

 

[PromisedLand]

no one is as smart as you. Vividly remember your posts from 2019 saying that a global pandemic was about to come and freeze the cap for the duration of these contracts!

Economic shocks happen all the time and they are all a "surprise" that is why its called a "shock"

Whats next? if there is a significant financial recession in the future are you going to then complain about "oh if only there was an announcement of recession"

Competent businesses act with some foresight; incompetent pieces of trash go out of business or suffer heavy losses.

 

[ORRFForever]

Holy WOW. Didn't see this article. Interesting indeed !

Perhaps it is more common than I know but I truly love the quote in the article...

"A player as soft as butter in the noon-day sun. But tough as nails at the negotiating table. "

So clever and accurate.

 

[PromisedLand]

the PA is always going to push for star players to take big contracts. the bigger the contracts the better for the players overall. The smaller salary guys know this already, the stars will get the push and the money. Teams are always looking for bargain bin contracts, so they won't lose jobs.

The PA would NEVER advocate for STAR players to take less than market value ever.

The more cap one has the more the other players can get signed or make better than league minimum.

Ex: Teams that don't run a 23 man roster due to cap constraints or sign 50 contracts due to internal financial situation/budget.

I am not sure smaller salary guys want some so called "stars" to keep taking bigger piece of the pie. Every franchise out there isn't Maple Leafs with quite a significant financial spending budget you know

 

[WTFMAN99]

I don't think so, no. Particularly in the playoffs.

The year before though, absolutely... and salary negotiations are far more about the last year.

My personal concern being... what will he be going forward? I'm happy to pay 21/22 Hart, Rocket version of the player $12-14, if we believe that is who we have going forward. Not so happy to pay the 22/23 version of that player more than $9.5 mil.

I'm almost in the bridge camp at this point. Three year deal, to prove you can stay healthy, and be that top guy. If it's $12 mil, ok... that's what it is. We shouldn't jump to conclusions, because the Elite level he can provide when healthy, is very rare, and unlikely to be replaced. I appreciate that if we keep him for three more years, and the injuries and lack of playoff success will hurt his trade value.

I just don't see the team blowing this all up, and starting again.. and with that in mind, it's improbable that we do see any of the four traded. It's just hope that they can find health, find a way to compete in the playoffs eventually (and we have plenty of examples of others who eventually learn), and find a way to surround them with the right pieces.

But if after three years, we are still seeing injury issues, and no playoff compete, it's time to take the whole team in a new direction.

It's gotten to the point, that even a normally pretty positive person about the team, players and management.. such as myself, just doesn't believe in it anymore. Matthews has the talent to have been one of the best Leafs of all time... I just don't know if his wrists are up to.. and Marner too, truly an elite player in many ways, but if his guy isn't scoring, it's not going to show.

I've mentioned this before but 11 / 83.5 = 13.17% of the cap

If someone decides to cheap shot JT, Marner or Matthews, that is a huge chunk of your cap allocation not available in the line up. Or a fluke shot off the foot etc...

Point stands in that this model was incredibly stupid to bet on. I can maybe get around Matthews/Marner long term and wait out the JT contract but that likely is gonna cost us Nylander off of the roster.

Seeing Keefe and the core 4 again next year just wouldn't make me think that the team is serious about winning anything.

 

[Fogelhund]

I've mentioned this before but 11 / 83.5 = 13.17% of the cap

If someone decides to cheap shot JT, Marner or Matthews, that is a huge chunk of your cap allocation not available in the line up. Or a fluke shot off the foot etc...

Point stands in that this model was incredibly stupid to bet on. I can maybe get around Matthews/Marner long term and wait out the JT contract but that likely is gonna cost us Nylander off of the roster.

Seeing Keefe and the core 4 again next year just wouldn't make me think that the team is serious about winning anything.

I understand why this model was bet on... without Covid, the Salary Cap is $10 mil higher, and we are having different conversations. Maybe that's the lesson going forward, your assumptions can go wrong, and don't make assumptions that the cap will always go up as expected.

I don't doubt that the team, and management is serious about winning, they just have a different viewpoint than us. Chances are... this team will have it's best success, when we least believe in them... LOL

 

[Dekes For Days]

Economic shocks happen all the time and they are all a "surprise" that is why its called a "shock"
Whats next? if there is a significant financial recession in the future are you going to then complain about "oh if only there was an announcement of recession"

The cap didn't stagnate due to a recession, or an economic shock. The cap stagnated because there was a global pandemic and they couldn't have fans for a season in a gate-driven league, which created a billion+ dollar player debt that was paid off by manually lowering the cap below where it should be for multiple years.
Also, for the record, recessions don't just pop up one day and economists are just like oh, look at that *pikachu face*.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I understand why this model was bet on... without Covid, the Salary Cap is $10 mil higher, and we are having different conversations. Maybe that's the lesson going forward, your assumptions can go wrong, and don't make assumptions that the cap will always go up as expected.

I don't doubt that the team, and management is serious about winning, they just have a different viewpoint than us. Chances are... this team will have it's best success, when we least believe in them... LOL

I know the Blackhawks bet on a 100M salary cap when they signed those 10.5M cap hits to Toews / Kane...

The thing is we did it with eyes wide open, seeing the pandemic and what the reality could be with the salary cap and chose not to pivot off of the plan. Dubas was either too stubborn or too stupid to change course, or both.

 

[Fogelhund]

The cap didn't stagnate due to a recession, or an economic shock. The cap stagnated because there was a global pandemic and they couldn't have fans for a season in a gate-driven league, which created a billion+ dollar player debt that was paid off by manually lowering the cap below where it should be for multiple years.
Also, for the record, recessions don't just pop up one day and economists are just like oh, look at that *pikachu face*.

"Recessions" generally also don't affect the salary bracket of season ticket holders very much.

 

[ToneDog]

I've mentioned this before but 11 / 83.5 = 13.17% of the cap

If someone decides to cheap shot JT, Marner or Matthews, that is a huge chunk of your cap allocation not available in the line up. Or a fluke shot off the foot etc...

Point stands in that this model was incredibly stupid to bet on. I can maybe get around Matthews/Marner long term and wait out the JT contract but that likely is gonna cost us Nylander off of the roster.

Seeing Keefe and the core 4 again next year just wouldn't make me think that the team is serious about winning anything.

Vegas fired DeBoer who just lost in the ECF with Dallas and has been to the SCF with SJ and we are keeping Keefe who some will argue he has been outcoached in every playoff series he has been in with the Leafs. Looks like Gilligan is steering the SS Minoe.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Vegas fired DeBoer who just lost in the ECF with Dallas and has been to the SCF with SJ and we are keeping Keefe who some will argue he has been outcoached in every playoff series he has been in with the Leafs. Looks like Gilligan is steering the SS Minoe.

I'm really hoping there is some secret moves behind the scenes on this.

 

[BallardEra]

I know the Blackhawks bet on a 100M salary cap when they signed those 10.5M cap hits to Toews / Kane...

The thing is we did it with eyes wide open, seeing the pandemic and what the reality could be with the salary cap and chose not to pivot off of the plan. Dubas was either too stubborn or too stupid to change course, or both.

Or maybe the mandate has also come from Shanahan this whole time.

 

[Fogelhund]

I know the Blackhawks bet on a 100M salary cap when they signed those 10.5M cap hits to Toews / Kane...

The thing is we did it with eyes wide open, seeing the pandemic and what the reality could be with the salary cap and chose not to pivot off of the plan. Dubas was either too stubborn or too stupid to change course, or both.

The pandemic started after everyone of the top four was signed, so no.. these contracts were not signed with eyes wide open.

I appreciate your viewpoint on not pivoting off that plan, but we don't know who is at fault here. It's easy to pin on Dubas, but I think it's safer to say... Leafs org. If Dubas didn't have freedom to make the changes he wanted.. how will we ever know if he wanted to make changes. That isn't a defense of him... maybe he didn't want to make changes like that... I don't know. I believe he would have, if he were still here... but that's pretty irrelevant.

Dubas also couldn't have predicted at the time, that Tavares would get concussed against Montreal, or that Matthews would end up having durability issues. If you have an elite core, you have to give them sufficient chances to succeed... you don't blow it up at the first failure, or even the second. I think they gave the core the right opportunity to succeed, and personally, I think NOW is the time to rethink things... and this management group likely doesn't.... which gives you pause to consider who is responsible for that?

If these guys could stay healthy.. they've got another 5-7 years of good performance, before it drops off... so you have plenty of opportunity there... and I'm not suggesting running it back until then... just that it's not as if opportunity for future success has gone forever.

To me, the number one reason we failed this year, is Matthews is injured. If you think that is Dubas/Mgmt fault for not addressing in advance.. fair enough. Perhaps you are for taking some steps back, to maybe have some success in the future... but trading Matthews, last year, now, next year.... it's steps backwards for sure... hoping to get back to where we are now... with playoff success in the future.

 

[Mess]

Precisely right Mess. Thanks for providing more context and examples. Couldn't have said it any better!

The Leafs core 4 takes up $40.5 mi & 1/2 their Salary Cap and Vegas top 10 forwards = $41 mil Cap and Vegas has 1/2 their cap balance towards Defense & Goaltending a couple depth forwards.

Vegas depth is scoring circles around our Leafs based on 10 forwards against only 4 particularly when Leafs core particular score 3 goals combined in 5 games against Florida.

Leafs really to get out of this Cap Hell situation even it means selling off an $11 mil player and then dividing the cap between 2-3 players.

 

[Fogelhund]

Vegas fired DeBoer who just lost in the ECF with Dallas and has been to the SCF with SJ and we are keeping Keefe who some will argue he has been outcoached in every playoff series he has been in with the Leafs. Looks like Gilligan is steering the SS Minoe.

I do think this is more the Shanaplan than anything else. I think Dubas saw the futility, couldn't do what he wanted, and left.

Until Shanahan is gone, this is the same old group.

 

[ToneDog]

I do think this is more the Shanaplan than anything else. I think Dubas saw the futility, couldn't do what he wanted, and left.

Until Shanahan is gone, this is the same old group.

Yeah I am starting to think this way. Perhaps it comes even further up which would be an even bigger problem.