Speculation: Atlantic Division Predictions

[Blowfish]

Even looking at shot differential (at a /60 basis to make up for the difference in games played), the Leafs really don't fare too badly and are actually remarkably stable.

Shot differential/60 Rank:
Leafs: 52.70 (9th in the NHL)

Points % in the NHL:
Leafs: .656 (9th in the NHL)

That low shooting% belies their actual level of play though as the Leafs rank higher up when it comes to scoring chance differential.

Scoring Chance differential/60 rank:
Leafs: 56.91 (1st in the NHL)

Expected Goals differential/60 rank:
Leafs: 55.74 (1st in the NHL)

They have been hitting the net more though and their recent record looks completely sustainable given their underlying numbers.

I think the Jets have the sketchiest underlying stats-to-win ratio but they have been playing that game for a few years now so it's no surprise.

With Tampa and Boston playing the fewest games the stats are somewhat misleading.

 

[Cleetus]

Why did the islanders start the season with 15 games on the road?

they are waiting for Belmont Park to be ready

 

[Zybalto]

With Tampa and Boston playing the fewest games the stats are somewhat misleading.

Boston has certainly played better than their record indicates.

Tampa has been disappointing so far but I was expecting a drop-off this year with the loss of so many excellent depth players but can certainly still surge to the top based on their top end and goaltending.

 

[Pi]

The Leafs probably finish 1st. Our scoring will get better while goaltending will get lower but the result of that will cancel out.

 

[hoglund]

Usually I’d say Thanksgiving. Although the Islander don’t play their first home game until Saturday so Christmas may be a better indicator this year.

Thanksgiving, really? They're only a few games in, maybe the American Thanksgiving, but still I say Christmas is when the standings are more meaningful.

 

[Nineteen67]

Thanksgiving, really? They're only a few games in, maybe the American Thanksgiving, but still I say Christmas is when the standings are more meaningful.

US Thanksgiving. Don’t know if this still holds true.

NHL's unofficial playoff predictor: Reading into the standings at Thanksgiving milepost

“Since the salary cap came into play in 2005-06, teams in a playoff position on the fourth Thursday in November have gone on to make it 77.8 percent of the time, according to calculations by our friends at Opta Sports. Over that span, on average, fewer than four teams out of playoff contention at this time of year reverse their fortunes in time to make the Stanley Cup playoffs. Last year, it turned out 14 of the 16 playoff teams were in place by Nov. 24.”

 

[hoglund]

US Thanksgiving. Don’t know if this still holds true.

NHL's unofficial playoff predictor: Reading into the standings at Thanksgiving milepost

“Since the salary cap came into play in 2005-06, teams in a playoff position on the fourth Thursday in November have gone on to make it 77.8 percent of the time, according to calculations by our friends at Opta Sports. Over that span, on average, fewer than four teams out of playoff contention at this time of year reverse their fortunes in time to make the Stanley Cup playoffs. Last year, it turned out 14 of the 16 playoff teams were in place by Nov. 24.”

When you first said Thanksgiving I assumed Canadian when only 7 or 8 games have been played.

 

[Zybalto]

The 1/4 of the season done...

Division rankings so far (with NHL rank in brackets):

5v5 CF%:

1. Panthers (1st)
2. Bruins (4th)
3. Leafs (5th)
4. Lightning (9th)
5. Canadiens (22nd)
6. Sabres (24th)
7. Red Wings (26th)
8. Senators (30th)

5v5 xGF%:

1. Bruins (2nd)
2. Leafs (4th)
3. Panthers (6th)
4. Lightning (9th)
5. Red Wings (14th)
6. Canadiens (25th)
7. Sabres (28th)
8. Senators (29th)

Special Teams:
Expected PP Goals For/60:

1. Leafs (3rd)
2. Bruins (11th)
3. Senators (13th)
4. Red Wings (23rd)
5. Canadiens (25th)
6. Lightning (26th)
7. Panthers (30th)
8. Sabres (32nd)

Fewest Expected PK Goals against/60:

1. Leafs (2nd)
2. Lightning (4th)
3. Bruins (5th)
4. Sabres (14th)
5. Red Wings (18th)
6. Canadiens (20th)
7. Panthers (22nd)
8. Senators (32nd)

Team Save%:

1. Leafs (2nd)
2. Panthers (4th)
3. Lightning (20th)
4. Red Wings (21st)
5. Bruins (23rd)
6. Sabres (25th)
7. Canadiens (30th)
8. Senators (31st)


Team Shooting%:

1. Panthers (6th)
2. Lightning (7th)
3. Sabres (12th)
4. Red Wings (17th)
5. Leafs (22nd)
6. Bruins (23rd)
7. Senators (24th)
8. Canadiens (27th)


Leafs still flying high everywhere except for shooting% on the season but they have pulled themselves out of the basement and are on the rise there too now.

The gap between the obvious top 4 and the bottom 4 continues to widen.

 

[Gabriel426]

The Atlantic is pretty much what many predicted.
Sabres will be at the bottom.
Sens is entertaining but not that’s about it.
Bruins is not as good as before bc the loss of Krejci is big and so is Rask.
Wings is just a better version of Sens.
TB is TB, I think injuries plays a bigger part in where they are now than depth. But I won’t sleep on them since they have Vas in net and he can steal a series or two.
Panthers is playing better than some
thought as a lot of their players are repeating their career year-last year.
Habs is bad and a lot worse than expected.
Leafs are doing well but the question will always be playoffs. I do think this year will be different.

 

[ACC1224]

Any predictions on which date they move into first in the division?

NHL Hockey Standings

 

[Fogelhund]

I think 1-4 can be a toss up.. Florida had more regular season points than Tampa last year. It's going to be a dog fight all year, which is good playoff prep.

Buffalo depends on Eichel to some degree... does he get traded, what's the return, or is he on LTIR? I don't think Buffalo can avoid the #8 spot, and might be generationally bad.

Detroit has some good young players, and if Matt Murray's form isn't great in Ottawa, Detroit could challenge them.

1. Florida
2. Tampa
3. Toronto
4. Boston
5. Montreal
6. Detroit
7. Ottawa.






8. Buffalo

At the quarter post, based on percentage... not too far off. Tampa hasn't been as good as expected, but then I didn't guess Kucherov would be out again. Montreal has been worse than expected, thought I'm not exactly broken up by that... Buffalo had a good start, but has fallen off since. Ottawa is also worse than expected, though much of that comes down to goaltending.

Atlantic		P%
Florida		0.738
Toronto		0.717
Tampa Bay	0.675
Boston		0.611
Detroit		0.523
Buffalo		0.452
Montréal		0.304
Ottawa		0.237

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Mad hatter]

The 1/4 of the season done...

Division rankings so far (with NHL rank in brackets):

5v5 CF%:

1. Panthers (1st)
2. Bruins (4th)
3. Leafs (5th)
4. Lightning (9th)
5. Canadiens (22nd)
6. Sabres (24th)
7. Red Wings (26th)
8. Senators (30th)

5v5 xGF%:

1. Bruins (2nd)
2. Leafs (4th)
3. Panthers (6th)
4. Lightning (9th)
5. Red Wings (14th)
6. Canadiens (25th)
7. Sabres (28th)
8. Senators (29th)

Special Teams:
Expected PP Goals For/60:

1. Leafs (3rd)
2. Bruins (11th)
3. Senators (13th)
4. Red Wings (23rd)
5. Canadiens (25th)
6. Lightning (26th)
7. Panthers (30th)
8. Sabres (32nd)

Fewest Expected PK Goals against/60:

1. Leafs (2nd)
2. Lightning (4th)
3. Bruins (5th)
4. Sabres (14th)
5. Red Wings (18th)
6. Canadiens (20th)
7. Panthers (22nd)
8. Senators (32nd)

Team Save%:

1. Leafs (2nd)
2. Panthers (4th)
3. Lightning (20th)
4. Red Wings (21st)
5. Bruins (23rd)
6. Sabres (25th)
7. Canadiens (30th)
8. Senators (31st)


Team Shooting%:

1. Panthers (6th)
2. Lightning (7th)
3. Sabres (12th)
4. Red Wings (17th)
5. Leafs (22nd)
6. Bruins (23rd)
7. Senators (24th)
8. Canadiens (27th)


Leafs still flying high everywhere except for shooting% on the season but they have pulled themselves out of the basement and are on the rise there too now.

The gap between the obvious top 4 and the bottom 4 continues to widen.

I definitely appreciate the stats that you post on here, thanks. The low shooting percentage is surprising with this team, so imho we’re still going to get better

 

[Notsince67]

Any predictions on which date they move into first in the division?

NHL Hockey Standings

Yesterday

 

[4thline]

The thing that has me excited for this season is that all the ??? upfront are upside related (IMO)

Looking through the depth and baseline expectations vs. realistic hopes

Ritchie
Expectation- 15/15, added toughness, poorly timed penalties, slight upgrade on Thornton at evens
Hope- takes a step into his prime, 25/25 legitimate top 6 powerforward, if slightly slow

Bunting
Expectation - 10/10, Vesey/Boyd level filler but with some pestiness
Hope- 20/20 Gallagher lite

Kampf
Expectation- + level defensive 4C and PK guy
Hope- shutdown 3C

Kase
Expectation- LTIR
Hope- Healthy, 17-18 level top 6 forward.

At baseline the loss of Hyman is mitigated by the upgrade from Thornton to Ritchie and Kampf solidifying the 4th line, but it's still a marginal step back. But if one of the 4 delivers to "hope" level, all else equal we switch to the other side of the pendulum- marginal step forward. But after the 1st, every "hope" level forward makes for a big upgrade.

A little more than 1/4 the way in, 3/4 hitting at "hope" level, one at ~expectation but snake bitten

 

[ACC1224]

Yesterday

I saw the were in second, guess they didn't update it.

Just checked again, looks updated.

1. Florida .738
2. Toronto .717
3. Tampa .675
4. Boston .611

 

[SprDaVE]

The 1/4 of the season done...

Division rankings so far (with NHL rank in brackets):

5v5 CF%:

1. Panthers (1st)
2. Bruins (4th)
3. Leafs (5th)
4. Lightning (9th)
5. Canadiens (22nd)
6. Sabres (24th)
7. Red Wings (26th)
8. Senators (30th)

5v5 xGF%:

1. Bruins (2nd)
2. Leafs (4th)
3. Panthers (6th)
4. Lightning (9th)
5. Red Wings (14th)
6. Canadiens (25th)
7. Sabres (28th)
8. Senators (29th)

Special Teams:
Expected PP Goals For/60:

1. Leafs (3rd)
2. Bruins (11th)
3. Senators (13th)
4. Red Wings (23rd)
5. Canadiens (25th)
6. Lightning (26th)
7. Panthers (30th)
8. Sabres (32nd)

Fewest Expected PK Goals against/60:

1. Leafs (2nd)
2. Lightning (4th)
3. Bruins (5th)
4. Sabres (14th)
5. Red Wings (18th)
6. Canadiens (20th)
7. Panthers (22nd)
8. Senators (32nd)

Team Save%:

1. Leafs (2nd)
2. Panthers (4th)
3. Lightning (20th)
4. Red Wings (21st)
5. Bruins (23rd)
6. Sabres (25th)
7. Canadiens (30th)
8. Senators (31st)


Team Shooting%:

1. Panthers (6th)
2. Lightning (7th)
3. Sabres (12th)
4. Red Wings (17th)
5. Leafs (22nd)
6. Bruins (23rd)
7. Senators (24th)
8. Canadiens (27th)


Leafs still flying high everywhere except for shooting% on the season but they have pulled themselves out of the basement and are on the rise there too now.

The gap between the obvious top 4 and the bottom 4 continues to widen.

Can the Bruins just die already? How are they still this strong... makes me mad.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Leafs are doing well but the question will always be playoffs. I do think this year will be different.

I have a pretty good feeling about this team as well but still, I have felt this way before and been burned so no point in getting overly excited.

On the bright side, the goaltending looks better than ever, special teams are great and those are always two huge things in the playoffs. The entire team is playing well, no weak spots anywhere and Sandin/Liljegren so far seem to be having a huge impact and defence is so important so that's another plus. I also have zero fear about getting pushed around on the ice which has been a concern in the past so basically, everything looks awesome. Of course the PP looked great last year before going into the dumpster so November stats don't mean that much and the division is so tough, that we could play better in the playoffs than we've played in years and still not get very far so there's that as well. And last but not least, we haven't shown up for series deciding games the last 4 years losing by a combined score of 18-6 and as long as I have no idea why this has happened, it's impossible to say for certain that it won't happen again. This team has a massive monkey on it's back and until we win a series, it's just silly to chirp too much.

Any predictions on which date they move into first in the division?

NHL Hockey Standings

Probably best not to be so arrogant - there's no guarantee we ever move into first. It might happen very soon, or it might never happen. Would be nice to be 1st at the end of the season though, that's the only time the standings really matter.

Yesterday

PTS% is the only sensible way to look at the standings, we're 2nd in our division and 6th overall.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Can the Bruins just die already? How are they still this strong... makes me mad.

+1

I guess they won't die until we kill them ourselves in the playoffs. Hopefully we get that opportunity and are up to the challenge, eliminating those guys would definitely shake that monkey off our backs!

 

[Zybalto]

Can the Bruins just die already? How are they still this strong... makes me mad.

Yup, looking at their numbers, they are strong in everything except PDO.

The Leafs are once again in the best division in the league, in the best conference in the league and gonna be in a dogfight in the first round.

 

[SprDaVE]

Yup, looking at their numbers, they are strong in everything except PDO.

The Leafs are once again in the best division in the league, in the best conference in the league and gonna be in a dogfight in the first round.

Leafs went from playing in the weakest division to a slightly less weak division?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yup, looking at their numbers, they are strong in everything except PDO.

The Leafs are once again in the best division in the league, in the best conference in the league and gonna be in a dogfight in the first round.

So true, would be nice to have an easier 1st round match-up, really bad luck to have the divisions the way they are. On the other hand, we had that "easier" match-up the last two years and it didn't help us any so can't really complain too much either, nothing to do but suck it up and deal with it. And of course winning the division is always a possibility that 100% solves the problem, no reason that can't happen.

 

[Notsince67]

I have a pretty good feeling about this team as well but still, I have felt this way before and been burned so no point in getting overly excited.

On the bright side, the goaltending looks better than ever, special teams are great and those are always two huge things in the playoffs. The entire team is playing well, no weak spots anywhere and Sandin/Liljegren so far seem to be having a huge impact and defence is so important so that's another plus. I also have zero fear about getting pushed around on the ice which has been a concern in the past so basically, everything looks awesome. Of course the PP looked great last year before going into the dumpster so November stats don't mean that much and the division is so tough, that we could play better in the playoffs than we've played in years and still not get very far so there's that as well. And last but not least, we haven't shown up for series deciding games the last 4 years losing by a combined score of 18-6 and as long as I have no idea why this has happened, it's impossible to say for certain that it won't happen again. This team has a massive monkey on it's back and until we win a series, it's just silly to chirp too much.



Probably best not to be so arrogant - there's no guarantee we ever move into first. It might happen very soon, or it might never happen. Would be nice to be 1st at the end of the season though, that's the only time the standings really matter.



PTS% is the only sensible way to look at the standings, we're 2nd in our division and 6th overall.

Only for an idiot. Applying a conservative win ratio to the games in hand does not put florida ahead of toronto.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Only for an idiot. Applying a conservative win ratio to the games in hand does not put florida ahead of toronto.

LOL WUT?

 

[Notsince67]

LOL WUT?

Like I said. Only an idiot. Basic arithmetic and knowing that points are rounded to the nearest whole number.
Just stop. This kind of mental argument bores the shit out of me

 

[Gary Nylund]

Like I said. Only an idiot. Basic arithmetic and knowing that points are rounded to the nearest whole number.
Just stop. This kind of mental argument bores the shit out of me

What is it about PTS% you're having trouble with? FLA is 2 points behind us and has played 2 less games, they're averaging more than 1 point earned per game so that's why they're ahead of us. If you think that name calling makes up for your lack of understanding and helps convince anyone, I suggest you think again.