Speculation: Atlantic Division Predictions

[JT AM da real deal]

We obviously need to win our division to avoid having a super tough 1st round opponent and with these injuries, our chances obviously took a massive hit. What can I say, I hope we're healthy and ready to play our best when the puck drops for the playoffs because at that point, our November streak will be worth absolutely nothing.

Nothing will be EASY in Atlantic .. Tampa, Florida, Boston and Toronto .. I don't see an EASY 1st round or 2nd round match-up .. and wildcard placing will draw Carolina or Washington again nothing EASY about that if that happens either.. to win EAST requires 3 damn tough series wins .. much much much easier to win out of Pacific which outside of Vegas is a joke

 

[Zybalto]

Division rankings so far (with NHL rank in brackets):

5v5 CF%:

1. Panthers (1st)
2. Bruins (5th)
3. Leafs (7th)
4. Lightning (11th)
5. Sabres (23rd)
6. Canadiens (24th)
7. Red Wings (30th)
8. Senators (31st)

5v5 xGF%:

1. Bruins (1st)
2. Panthers (2nd)
3. Leafs (3rd)
4. Lightning (9th)
5. Red Wings (25th)
6. Sabres (27th)
7. Senators (30th)
8. Canadiens (31st)

Special Teams:
Expected PP Goals For/60:

1. Leafs (2nd)
2. Bruins (8th)
3. Senators (13th)
4. Red Wings (21st)
5. Canadiens (25th)
6. Lightning (26th)
7. Panthers (28th)
8. Sabres (31st)

Fewest Expected PK Goals against/60:

1. Lightning (3rd)
2. Leafs (4th)
3. Bruins (9th)
4. Sabres (17th)
5. Canadiens (18th)
6. Panthers (20th)
7. Red Wings (21st)
8. Senators (32nd)

Team Save%:

1. Leafs (6th)
2. Bruins (7th)
3. Panthers (11th)
4. Lightning (14th)
5. Red Wings (25th)
6. Canadiens (27th)
7. Sabres (28th)
8. Senators (29th)


Team Shooting%:

1. Lightning (2nd)
2. Panthers (8th)
3. Red Wings (15th)
4. Leafs (16th)
5. Senators (18th)
6. Sabres (21st)
7. Bruins (26th)
8. Canadiens (30th)

The widening between the top and bottom 4 continues and its more interesting to look at the weaknesses among the top teams.

The Leafs have been hampered by injuries as of late but it hasnt stopped them from getting more bounces bringing up their big weakness (shooting %) up to a respectable level. Pretty much amazing in every single other area.

Florida is great in everything except special teams this year so far and their underlying numbers there arnt just poor but bottom ten overall bad. The PK numbers have been picking up though so let's see if they can bring those up by the midway point.

Boston looks like the Leafs in the playoffs the last couple of years (and earlier in the year). Tons of dominating play but cant finish enough chances. Great literally everywhere except on finishing.

Tampa is still above average to great everywhere and is shooting the puck really well despite some key injuries and offseason losses. They have won 2 cups in a row for a reason.



I really would say that all four of these teams are also in the top 10 in the league so of course, they will probably all face each other in the first round knocking out two of the best teams early while some western conference team will get to the 2nd round and claim they are better.

 

[ULF_55]

Which would you rather have, 1 point or 3 games in hand?

Games in hand * point percentage mitigated by streak and injury scenario. Hutchison as only healthy keeper changes everything.

 

[ULF_55]

maybe it has to do with the fact you can get points in the nhl by losing. An example to keep it simple. team A plays 30 games and loses all in OT they won 0 percent, but earn 30 points
Team B plays 30 games wins 10 but loses 20 all in regulation time winning % 33 but only gets 20 points. Team A advances more points smaller win percentage.

NHL used to have tie games, each team got a point.

The NHL added an extra period, and teams battle for a 2nd. point in that extra period.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Games in hand * point percentage mitigated by streak and injury scenario. Hutchison as only healthy keeper changes everything.

What if we had a healthy Zamboni driver as backup, then we should still be good for more than 1 point out of 6.

NHL used to have tie games, each team got a point.

The NHL added an extra period, and teams battle for a 2nd. point in that extra period.

Yes I'm not sure where the term "loser points" originated but it never made any sense to me. You get one point for being tied after regulation time, you get nothing for losing. And winning/losing in the gimmicks of OT and shootouts have zero bearing when we're trying to predict how a team might perform in the playoffs, it's all worthless noise to me. 3 on 3 is fun to watch but still, it's a gimmick that has nothing to do with playoff hockey.

 

[Zybalto]

Havnt done one in a while so....

Division rankings so far (with NHL rank in brackets):

5v5 CF%:

1. Panthers (2nd)
2. Bruins (5th)
3. Leafs (6th)
4. Lightning (11th)
5. Senators (24th)
6. Sabres (28th)
7. Red Wings (29th)
8. Canadiens (30th)

5v5 xGF%:

1. Bruins (1st)
2. Leafs (3rd)
3. Panthers (4th)
4. Lightning (7th)
5. Senators (23rd)
6. Red Wings (24th)
7. Senators (30th)
8. Sabres (31st)

Special Teams:
Expected PP Goals For/60:

1. Leafs (2nd)
2. Bruins (7th)
3. Senators (14th)
4. Lightning (15th)
5. Panthers (19th)
6. Red Wings (23rd)
7. Canadiens (31st)
8. Sabres (32nd)

Fewest Expected PK Goals against/60:

1. Lightning (4th)
2. Leafs (5th)
3. Bruins (8th)
4. Red Wings (12th)
5. Panthers (14th)
6. Canadiens (20th)
7. Sabres (28th)
8. Senators (31st)

Team Save%:

1. Leafs (10th)
2. Panthers (11th)
3. Bruins (14th)
4. Lightning (16th)
5. Sabres (20th)
6. Senators (26th)
7. Red Wings (27th)
8. Canadiens (30th)


Team Shooting%:

1. Lightning (3rd)
2. Panthers (5th)
3. Leafs (10th)
4. Red Wings (18th)
5. Senators (20th)
6. Sabres (21st)
7. Bruins (24th)
8. Canadiens (31st)

Pretty much the same divisional divide everyone else is seeing makes things less fun for sure. Toronto now in the top ten in the league in all the categories in so stacked a top 4 that Boston's .646 points % is an afterthought for some reason (and they have been an unlucky team this year I expect to get better). 3 teams above .700 in the same division is pretty crazy though.

 

[Zybalto]

Just a fun bump to look back on. Maybe we should start a new one?

Final standings:

1. Panthers
2. Leafs
3. Lightning
4. Bruins
5. Sabres
6. Red Wings
7. Senators
8. Canadiens

 

[darrylsittler27]

Leafs fourth and who cares? Just punch that playoff ticket and keep our first rounder.

 

[zeke]

Just a fun bump to look back on. Maybe we should start a new one?

Final standings:

1. Panthers
2. Leafs
3. Lightning
4. Bruins
5. Sabres
6. Red Wings
7. Senators
8. Canadiens

Given the arguments in this thread its probably more important to note that the leafs finished 40pts ahead of the 5th place team in the Atlantic and 31pts ahead of the 5th placed team in the Metro.

 

[stealth1]

Given the arguments in this thread its probably more important to note that the leafs finished 40pts ahead of the 5th place team in the Atlantic and 31pts ahead of the 5th placed team in the Metro.

That was last season. The difference this season is those bottom teams upgraded and will be better and the top teams lost some depth. I think the gap will be much smaller this season.