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Speculation: Atlantic Division Predictions

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IPS said:
He wasn't! Atleast according to Hawks fans. Seabrook most def, but not Keith.




I'm just an angry guy bro.
Click to expand...

To cheer you up, my angry friend, here's the two teams' simple total defensive performances since Keefe took over:

TBL: 28.90sa/60 (#8), 2.42xga/60 (#4), 2.60ga/60 (#7), 91.0sv% (#6)
TOR: 29.04sa/60 (#11), 2.44xga/60 (#5), 2.76ga/60 (#8), 90.5sv% (#16)

Playoffs

TBL: 27.67sa/70 (#2), 2.46xga/60 (#9), 1.97ga/60 (#1), 92.87sv% (#2)
TOR: 27.90sa/60 (#3), 2.27xga/60 (#2), 2.03ga/60 (#3), 92.72sv% (#4)
 
I want to first say I believe advanced stats have a place in our game. It helps us figure out how to play certain situations and the bottom of the line up. I don’t need an advanced stat telling me how good Matthews or McDavid is we can see it.

We have been throwing advanced stats around for a while to show that our team is good and yet when push comes to shove we don’t win. I don’t need an advanced stat to tell me we’re going to be good or we are playing good! It’s time they show it on the ice with results.

What good are these advanced stats if the players don’t even show it on the ice when the going gets tough? I hope I’m proved wrong with on ice results and not advanced stats showing us we are good. Finish a check and show me some passion on the ice when they face some adversity!
 
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killer1980 said:
The Leafs have had a downward slide from their 105 pt season with the help of analytics. Keep showing your own ignorance by supporting this practice as the Leafs drift into oblivion supporting a system and a GM that is going blind staring, not starring, at a computer rather than seeing what is actually happening on the ice. GL with your team that has failed miserably under this management team. I like winners.
Click to expand...

The Leafs are not the only example for using analytics and certainly isn't why they've seemingly dipped in your eyes.

The Tampa Bay Lightning won back to back cups being strong leaders and proponents of analytics. The Leafs are not the only team in the NHL. Winners don't close their minds to using any and every avenue to evaluate talent.

If this is me being ignorant, I think you need to take your own advice about leaving the computer.

I will take into account my misspelling of the word "staring".
 
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IPS said:
I highly doubt Tampa fans agree with you at all but you do you bro.

Rewatch game 7 against the Isles and tell me about how that's allegedly the weakest part of their team.
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Thing is their forwards were excellent defensively which imo helps make up the difference plus they have the top goalies in the league. Their D core is top heavy (for example they extra shifted headman to play with Bogo during their first cup run a bunch)
 
SprDaVE said:
The Leafs are not the only example for using analytics and certainly isn't why they've seemingly dipped in your eyes.

The Tampa Bay Lightning won back to back cups being strong leaders and proponents of analytics. The Leafs are not the only team in the NHL. Winners don't close their minds to using any and every avenue to evaluate talent.

If this is me being ignorant, I think you need to take your own advice about leaving the computer.

I will take into account my misspelling of the word "staring".
Click to expand...

Yep The Bolts have had back to back analytics minded GMs (they had a stats department for longer than the Leafs too lol). Their main stats guy Michael Peterson had been with the team for over a decade
 
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SprDaVE said:
The Leafs are not the only example for using analytics and certainly isn't why they've seemingly dipped in your eyes.

The Tampa Bay Lightning won back to back cups being strong leaders and proponents of analytics. The Leafs are not the only team in the NHL. Winners don't close their minds to using any and every avenue to evaluate talent.

If this is me being ignorant, I think you need to take your own advice about leaving the computer.

I will take into account my misspelling of the word "staring".
Click to expand...

True but let's be real - neither of tbay's cups really count. Asterisked to all hell.
 
The waaaay too early....

Division rankings so far (with NHL rank as well):

5v5 CF%:

1. Bruins (1st)
2. Sabres (4th)
3. Panthers (5th)
4. Leafs (9th)
5. Lightning (16th)
6. Senators (23rd)
7. Canadiens (25th)

5v5 xGF%:

1. Sabres (3rd)
2. Bruins (5th)
3. Leafs (8th)
4. Panthers (9th)
5. Senators (19th)
6. Lightning (21st)
7. Canadiens (29th)


Special Teams:
Expected PP Goals For/60:

1. Leafs (3rd)
2. Senators (7th)
3. Sabres (14th)
4. Lightning (20th)
5. Canadiens (24th)
6. Bruins (30th)
7. Panthers (31st)

Fewest Expected PK Goals against/60:

1. Lightning (13th)
2. Canadiens (15th)
3. Sabres (18th)
4. Bruins (19th)
5. Leafs (20th)
6. Panthers (23rd)
7. Senators (30th)

Team Save%:

1. Sabres (1st)
2. Panthers (2nd)
3. Leafs (3rd)
4. Senators (4th)
5. Canadiens (25th)
6. Bruins (27th)
7. Lightning (29th)

Team Shooting%:

1. Panthers (6th)
2. Sabres (15th)
3. Lightning (18th)
4. Senators (21st)
5. Bruins (24th)
6. Leafs (30th)
7. Canadiens (32nd)
 
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Panthers are looking kinda scary right now. If that roster plays to its ability they'll be a super tough out. They're obviously still unproven in the playoffs but so are we.

Going down each roster it feels like they match up pretty closely at the positions where we've concentrated our elite talent, but then have such high quality depth. Lindell looks great and guys like Verhaeghe and Marchment seem to be continuing where they left off last season.

Maybe I'm underestimating the Leafs but it's hard to envision us finishing ahead of them this year. Zito's done a great job.
 
For those Leaf fans that believe Leafs will be a battle for a Wild Card/playoff spot, will not have their position changed after watching the 1st 6 games.

The biggest difference of course is moving from the all Canadian Div to play the entire NHL again included the USA based teams which are strong strength of competition than Canadian North.

Against Canadian Teams (Montreal, Ottawa, Ottawa) ..................... 3 games Record : 2-1-0 = 5 of 6 points & GF: 7 - GA: 5 = Dif +2
Against American Teams (NY Rangers, San Jose, Pittsburgh) ... 3 games Record : 0-2-1 = 1 of 6 points & GF: 5 - GA: 14 = Dif -9

Playing against the weaker Canadian based teams only last year might have given the Leafs a false sense of strength overall when evaluating the team heading into this season, and now that Leafs are going up the stronger USA based teams (even those missing key players) the results have been far different and less convincing that Leafs are among the top teams in the NHL.

Campbell last year never gave up 5 goals in any game he played and gave up 5 goals in 2 periods against a depleted Pens roster missing their stars and got pulled.

Still early days, bet early trends are concerning.
 
The still waaaay too early....

Division rankings so far (with NHL rank as well and including the Red Wings this time as I forgot they even existed):

5v5 CF%:

1. Panthers (1st)
2. Leafs (4th)
3. Bruins (8th)
4. Lightning (9th)
5. Sabres (16th)
6. Canadiens (18th)
7. Senators (29th)
8. Red Wings (31st)

5v5 xGF%:

1. Bruins (2nd)
2. Leafs (4th)
3. Panthers (9th)
4. Canadiens (14th)
5. Lightning (15th)
6. Sabres (17st)
7. Senators (20th)
8. Red Wings (26th)

Special Teams:
Expected PP Goals For/60:

1. Leafs (3rd)
2. Senators (14th)
3. Bruins (19th)
4. Lightning (21st)
5. Red Wings (22nd)
6. Canadiens (26th)
7. Panthers (28th)
8. Sabres (29th)

Fewest Expected PK Goals against/60:

1. Leafs (6th)
2. Bruins (7th)
3. Lightning (11th)
4. Sabres (16th)
5. Canadiens (18th)
6. Panthers (19th)
7. Red Wings (23rd)
8. Senators (31st)

Team Save%:

1. Panthers (2nd)
2. Sabres (9th)
3. Leafs (18th)
4. Senators (21st)
5. Bruins (22nd)
6. Red Wings (23rd)
7. Canadiens (25th)
8. Lightning (28th)

Team Shooting%:

1. Panthers (5th)
2. Lightning (9th)
3. Red Wings (12th)
4. Sabres (13th)
5. Senators (17th)
6. Leafs (27th)
7. Bruins (28th)
8. Canadiens (29th)

No surprise to see why the Panthers are tearing it up being top 5 in the league for both shooting % and goaltending despite some rough special teams numbers.

Starting to see the better teams rise up overall.

The Leafs PDO number was invetiably going to rise and now they are getting results based on how well they have played this year. Left some points on the table early but just had to keep up their play and good things happened.

Kinda crazy seeing the two teams that made it to the final based on their goalkeeping being dead last in goalkeeping for the division.​
 
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Mess said:
For those Leaf fans that believe Leafs will be a battle for a Wild Card/playoff spot, will not have their position changed after watching the 1st 6 games.

The biggest difference of course is moving from the all Canadian Div to play the entire NHL again included the USA based teams which are strong strength of competition than Canadian North.

Against Canadian Teams (Montreal, Ottawa, Ottawa) ..................... 3 games Record : 2-1-0 = 5 of 6 points & GF: 7 - GA: 5 = Dif +2
Against American Teams (NY Rangers, San Jose, Pittsburgh) ... 3 games Record : 0-2-1 = 1 of 6 points & GF: 5 - GA: 14 = Dif -9

Playing against the weaker Canadian based teams only last year might have given the Leafs a false sense of strength overall when evaluating the team heading into this season, and now that Leafs are going up the stronger USA based teams (even those missing key players) the results have been far different and less convincing that Leafs are among the top teams in the NHL.

Campbell last year never gave up 5 goals in any game he played and gave up 5 goals in 2 periods against a depleted Pens roster missing their stars and got pulled.

Still early days, bet early trends are concerning.
Click to expand...
Don't get me wrong that Pens loss was embarrassing but half the goals Campbell let in were flukes.
 
The still too early....

Division rankings so far (with NHL rank in brackets):

5v5 CF%:

1. Panthers (1st)
2. Bruins (4th)
3. Leafs (7th)
4. Lightning (12th)
5. Canadiens (16th)
6. Sabres (17th)
7. Red Wings (28th)
8. Senators (29th)

5v5 xGF%:

1. Bruins (2nd)
2. Panthers (5th)
3. Leafs (6th)
4. Lightning (12th)
5. Canadiens (14th)
6. Red Wings (19th)
7. Sabres (21st)
8. Senators (26th)

Special Teams:
Expected PP Goals For/60:

1. Leafs (2nd)
2. Senators (15th)
3. Canadiens (20th)
4. Bruins (21st)
5. Lightning (22nd)
6. Panthers (27th)
7. Red Wings (28th)
8. Sabres (32nd)

Fewest Expected PK Goals against/60:

1. Leafs (3rd)
2. Bruins (7th)
3. Lightning (10th)
4. Sabres (11th)
5. Red Wings (17th)
6. Canadiens (19th)
7. Panthers (22nd)
8. Senators (30th)

Team Save%:

1. Panthers (8th)
2. Leafs (12th)
3. Red Wings (17th)
4. Sabres (21st)
5. Lightning (23rd)
6. Senators (25th)
7. Bruins (26th)
8. Canadiens (30th)


Team Shooting%:

1. Panthers (4th)
2. Sabres (10th)
3. Lightning (11th)
4. Red Wings (15th)
5. Senators (21st)
6. Bruins (24th)
7. Leafs (28th)
8. Canadiens (31st)

Underlying numbers of the Bruins, Panthers, Leafs and Bolts finally starting to show themselves the class of the division as expected.

Funny thing is that the Leafs are still vastly underperforming with their shooting% and could outperform their current 108 point pace going forward.
 
Zybalto said:
The still too early....

Division rankings so far (with NHL rank in brackets):

5v5 CF%:

1. Panthers (1st)
2. Bruins (4th)
3. Leafs (7th)
4. Lightning (12th)
5. Canadiens (16th)
6. Sabres (17th)
7. Red Wings (28th)
8. Senators (29th)

5v5 xGF%:

1. Bruins (2nd)
2. Panthers (5th)
3. Leafs (6th)
4. Lightning (12th)
5. Canadiens (14th)
6. Red Wings (19th)
7. Sabres (21st)
8. Senators (26th)

Special Teams:
Expected PP Goals For/60:

1. Leafs (2nd)
2. Senators (15th)
3. Canadiens (20th)
4. Bruins (21st)
5. Lightning (22nd)
6. Panthers (27th)
7. Red Wings (28th)
8. Sabres (32nd)

Fewest Expected PK Goals against/60:

1. Leafs (3rd)
2. Bruins (7th)
3. Lightning (10th)
4. Sabres (11th)
5. Red Wings (17th)
6. Canadiens (19th)
7. Panthers (22nd)
8. Senators (30th)

Team Save%:

1. Panthers (8th)
2. Leafs (12th)
3. Red Wings (17th)
4. Sabres (21st)
5. Lightning (23rd)
6. Senators (25th)
7. Bruins (26th)
8. Canadiens (30th)


Team Shooting%:

1. Panthers (4th)
2. Sabres (10th)
3. Lightning (11th)
4. Red Wings (15th)
5. Senators (21st)
6. Bruins (24th)
7. Leafs (28th)
8. Canadiens (31st)

Underlying numbers of the Bruins, Panthers, Leafs and Bolts finally starting to show themselves the class of the division as expected.

Funny thing is that the Leafs are still vastly underperforming with their shooting% and could outperform their current 108 point pace going forward.
Click to expand...


That shooting percentage matches the eye test. And since the CF%/XGF% are in good shape it may just be a case of a few guys being snakebitten and that the goals will come.
 
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Zybalto said:
The waaaay too early....

Division rankings so far (with NHL rank as well):

5v5 CF%:

1. Bruins (1st)
2. Sabres (4th)
3. Panthers (5th)
4. Leafs (9th)
5. Lightning (16th)
6. Senators (23rd)
7. Canadiens (25th)

5v5 xGF%:

1. Sabres (3rd)
2. Bruins (5th)
3. Leafs (8th)
4. Panthers (9th)
5. Senators (19th)
6. Lightning (21st)
7. Canadiens (29th)


Special Teams:
Expected PP Goals For/60:

1. Leafs (3rd)
2. Senators (7th)
3. Sabres (14th)
4. Lightning (20th)
5. Canadiens (24th)
6. Bruins (30th)
7. Panthers (31st)

Fewest Expected PK Goals against/60:

1. Lightning (13th)
2. Canadiens (15th)
3. Sabres (18th)
4. Bruins (19th)
5. Leafs (20th)
6. Panthers (23rd)
7. Senators (30th)

Team Save%:

1. Sabres (1st)
2. Panthers (2nd)
3. Leafs (3rd)
4. Senators (4th)
5. Canadiens (25th)
6. Bruins (27th)
7. Lightning (29th)

Team Shooting%:

1. Panthers (6th)
2. Sabres (15th)
3. Lightning (18th)
4. Senators (21st)
5. Bruins (24th)
6. Leafs (30th)
7. Canadiens (32nd)
Click to expand...

Redwings got punted out of division?
Edit: see it has been fixed now.
 
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The Hanging Jowl said:
That shooting percentage matches the eye test. And since the CF%/XGF% are in good shape it may just be a case of a few guys being snakebitten and that the goals will come.
Click to expand...

The Bruins have been better than their record as well and I wonder how the future Rask situation will unfold.
 
Zybalto said:
The Bruins have been better than their record as well and I wonder how the future Rask situation will unfold.
Click to expand...

Funny you say that because I was looking at the shot differential stats vs position in the standings this morning (something I've always thought is a good indicator over whether a team is for real or not) and there are only three outliers: The Leafs (we aren't and good as our place in the standings which is not surprising since many teams have games in hand) and both Boston and St. Louis should be higher in the standings.
 
The Hanging Jowl said:
Funny you say that because I was looking at the shot differential stats vs position in the standings this morning (something I've always thought is a good indicator over whether a team is for real or not) and there are only three outliers: The Leafs (we aren't and good as our place in the standings which is not surprising since many teams have games in hand) and both Boston and St. Louis should be higher in the standings.
Click to expand...

Even looking at shot differential (at a /60 basis to make up for the difference in games played), the Leafs really don't fare too badly and are actually remarkably stable.

Shot differential/60 Rank:
Leafs: 52.70 (9th in the NHL)

Points % in the NHL:
Leafs: .656 (9th in the NHL)

That low shooting% belies their actual level of play though as the Leafs rank higher up when it comes to scoring chance differential.

Scoring Chance differential/60 rank:
Leafs: 56.91 (1st in the NHL)

Expected Goals differential/60 rank:
Leafs: 55.74 (1st in the NHL)

They have been hitting the net more though and their recent record looks completely sustainable given their underlying numbers.

I think the Jets have the sketchiest underlying stats-to-win ratio but they have been playing that game for a few years now so it's no surprise.
 
hoglund said:
Don't look at the standings until Christmas, then you can make predictions.
Click to expand...

Usually I’d say Thanksgiving. Although the Islander don’t play their first home game until Saturday so Christmas may be a better indicator this year.
 
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