It wasn't you throwing around x/GA 60 last year showing Justin Holl's was better than Hedman's?
Sorry for confusing you with someone else, my bad.
Speculation: Atlantic Division Predictions
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It wasn't you throwing around x/GA 60 last year showing Justin Holl's was better than Hedman's?
Sorry for confusing you with someone else, my bad.
Stats are a little bit useful (even in current embryonic stage of analytics we are currently in in hockey) for GMs to use in recruitment of players via draft, ufa and trades for guys whose stat pack they desire ... but for coaches and players they almost useless .. no player wakes up in morning and says I got to get my xpa up .. players work on either skill development, physical conditioning/strength and/or positional/systems video review to assess where they can fix mistakes made on ice ... then practice is where coaches can help work on those team issues that need fixing as a team .. coaches use an individual players strengths and try to maximize them to help team ie bad defensive players they want to only take faceoffs in opposition end of ice and/or jump off in transition
notDatsyuk
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Not necessarily true.
I think some posters here consider "games played in a Leafs uniform" as a very important stat in determining a player's ranking.
zeke
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I don't remember comparing those two one on one - though hedman had a better xga/60 anyways.
Of course in much different usage - Muzzin-Holl was the primary matchup pairing like McDonagh/Cernak was for the Bolts. Hedman's usage was more similar to rielly's.
if we want to look at say the previous 2 seasons plus this one, an compare dmen, we could line them up by usage - both qoc and zone deployment.
And before you get upset about me daring to compare the leafs to the mighty bolts, remember that all the numbers also clearly indicate that the Bolts had significantly better forwards and significantly better goaltending than the leafs.
Dzone start % - Ozone start % gives us an idea of how difficult their zone deployment is. (I'll consider qoc just off the top of my head right based on what i've followed.)
Rielly -3.1 ------- Hedman -2.6
Brodie +0.3 ------ Rutta -0.2
Muzzin +2.8 --- McDonagh +2.7
Holl +2.3 ------- Cernak +2.8
Sandin -3.3 ----- Sergachev -3.6
Dermott -2.1 ---- Bogosian +1.3
Note: Sergachev flips up alongside Hedman for offensive zone starts, Rutta mostly for defensive zone starts.
Rielly 53.1xgf% (-0.6rel) --- Hedman 54.1xgf% (+0.4rel)
Brodie 54.6xgf% (+1.4rel) -- Rutta 52.7xgf% (-0.5rel)
Muzzin 54.3gf% (+0.7rel) --- McDonagh 53.3gf% (-0.5rel)
Holl 53.3xgf% (-0.5rel) ------ Cernak 53.6xgf% (-0.4rel)
Sandin 52.7xgf% (+0.2rel) -- Sergachev 53.8xgf% (+0.1rel)
Dermott 55.4xgf% (+1.6rel) - Bogosian 51.2xgf% (-1.5rel)
A few things we can glean:
- Muzzin is a monster, and likely the best even strength two-way dman on either team
- Muzzin-Holl and McDonagh-Cernak are two excellent matchup dmen that get very tough usage.
- Both Rielly and Hedman get relatively soft usage for "#1 dmen", and while Hedman does better than Rielly he doesn't exactly dominate in that usage, either.
- Brodie is a better top pair partner than either Sergachev or Rutta are. This is why TB rotates that spot depending on usage - they don't really have a guy to trust permanently in that role. Hedman's lack of a legit all-situations partner probably hurts his numbers.
- Bogosian was bad when getting top 4 usage, which brings his numbers down here, but did put up comparable numbers to Dermott last year in the same kind of usage. Tough to say how much one impacted the other, but it's interesting that this year Dermott looks even better with Sandin than he did with Bogo. Bogo meanwhile got caved in his only game this year before being injured.
- as a note about depth, to replace injured Bogo they've resorted to playing Sustr, a guy who hasn't even played in the league in a few years, and he's unsurprisingly doing poorly (31.8xgf% in 3gms).
If you prefer numbers that aren't pure analytics, and also include actual goals and points and power plays and penalty kills and all that regular stuff too, we can look at something like Game Score Value Added to compare them, too.
They would lineup like this:
Rielly 2.3 ---- Hedman 2.9
Brodie 1.3 --- Rutta 0.1 / Sergachev 1.7
Muzzin 1.9 --- McDonagh 1.2
Holl 0.6 ---- Cernak 1.3
Sandin 0.9 --- Sergachev 1.7 / Rutta 0.1
Dermott 0.4 -- Bogosian 0.0
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Dion TheFluff
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- Jun 22, 2015
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Last year???
Holl xGA/60 at ES : 2.12
Hedman xGA/60 at ES: 2.46
via naturalstattrick
And that's with Holl getting tougher usage by your own admission. It was one poster parading this stat around showing Holl as one of the best defensive D in the league (which I swear was you, but if I'm wrong, my apologies).
It was me who brought up Hedman (among many, many other examples I brought up) to show the stat is garbage and doesn't provide anything useful.
A better 2-way D than Hedman. This level of bias seriously blows me away.
Which GM's do you think believe this?
You can take this up with the Leafs coaching staff then.
They gave Bogo more minutes and more usage (on the PK) than Dermott. Everything indicated they trusted Bogo far more than Dermott.
killer1980
Registered User
Stats in hockey are an excuse for people who aren't good enough to evaluate talent. There are too many variables in hockey that contribute to a players performance. Even though baseball is a 'team' sport, it is really an individual sport, batter against pitcher or fielder against the the hitter. Anyone who uses analytics to compile a roster on the ice is doomed for failure. Turn your computer off and make a decision on what you see and feel and base your judgement accordingly.
zeke
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I would never use even strength numbers from NST only because they don’t adjust them for score.
Even then, though, I prefer evolving hockey's more nuanced xg.
Or maybe you're wrong about Hedman's defense, and there's a reason his coach played McDonagh more than him at even strength in the playoffs, and in all the toughest matchups?
GMs believe a lot of things, like that Jones and Ristolainen are good defensively.
They played them exactly the same at EV of course, but yes, they did trust Bogo with PK minutes....though not a whole lot of them.
SprDaVE
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If you don't think evaluating talent by just "eye scouting" doesn't come with it's own issues and biases, Im not sure what to tell you.
Teams and people don't build rosters by just looking at a spreadsheet and nothing else. Evaluating talent doesn't change. Adding statistical evidence should make your talent evaluation better and removes certain biases and short/long-term variables. If you look at a players goals and assists, that makes you a nerd that looks at data as well.
Every single team has an analytical department and it isn't for just fun... it's actually useful and many teams have found great success by having people "starring at computers".
Scouting has never been more accurate compared to what it was 40 years ago for a reason, and it isn't because scouts visit more rinks or because eye prescriptions are better.
Stop projecting your own ignorance about analytics. I don't pretend I know everything about them and certainly have my own doubts about some of them but it's great stuff and you should try to understand them instead of rejecting them flatout.
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zeke
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Early and aggressive adopters of analytics in hockey include the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Colorado Avalanche, and the Vegas Golden Knights.
The Podium
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killer1980
Registered User
The Leafs have had a downward slide from their 105 pt season with the help of analytics. Keep showing your own ignorance by supporting this practice as the Leafs drift into oblivion supporting a system and a GM that is going blind staring, not starring, at a computer rather than seeing what is actually happening on the ice. GL with your team that has failed miserably under this management team. I like winners.
Well ok then
Yeah it's called load management. Hedman played on an injured knee the entire playoffs. Hedman played more ES minutes than McDonagh in their first cup run. They didn't deploy them like that by choice.
And during Chicago's dynasty - Hjalmarrson played all the tough matchups. Keith got used the same as Hedman. Hjalmarrson was not a better defensive D than Keith (although close, he was great). They spaced Keith's minutes out to utlize his amazing transition game / offensive play, and paired them together when necessary. Tampa didn't have this privilege because McDonagh can't play the right side as effectively as Hjalmarrson.
Lots of little things here that your precious little stats will never pick up.
Woah woah woah, you're gonna go at your boys Dubas and Keefe like that? Woah dude. They're the ones who make the choice to use Bogo more than Dermott.
No shit? They played on the same pairing. Special teams made the difference and that's where Bogo was superior.
I won't keep you anymore Zeke. This board is getting more divisive by the day and I feel I shouldn't contribute to it anymore.
killer1980
Registered User
We'll see how they do this year when they have to actually play against teams that aren't the bottom half of the league. GL
We're about to find out just how shitty this Canadian division really was last year buddy boy.
Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl should be getting calls from Team Canada and Team USA respectively any day now guys! Seeing as Muzzin is a better 2-way D than Hedman.
zeke
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W/o shootout points pace
16-17: 94
17-18: 98
----------------
18-19: 100
19-20: 94
20-21: 111
21-22: 103
So analytics made us worse at shootouts I guess.
zeke
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killer1980
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Guess I missed the SC Parade with all the success they've had because of those shootouts. Oh wait, my 4 year-old son just told me they don't have shootouts in the playoffs. Enjoy the Division winning banner they got last year. I prefer the playoffs.
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zeke
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Well ok then
OK.
Or, Hjalmarsson was better defensively than Keith.
On the PK.
On the PK.
I'm here just having a reasonable discussion.
You seem very angry.
They did that last year, and played at a 113 point pace, in a much more sustainable way than how they got those point totals in 2017-2018.
killer1980
Registered User
He wasn't! Atleast according to Hawks fans. Seabrook most def, but not Keith.
I'm just an angry guy bro.
kevsh
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I can't argue with this.
Look at the 2015 draft for example. While a re-draft would certainly shuffle the rankings, look at how many first rounders are solid NHLers. Now 2019 - just two years ago - and how many are already in the NHL or very close to it, even considering the havoc Covid has played with prospect development.
As a non-scout I'd guess it's due to a lot of things, including analytics: The impact of social media (lots more video out there), more analysis and input by "amateur" scouts/web sites, simply better scouting overall, teams evolving their development systems, to name a few.
