ATD 2017 Draft Thread IV

[Hawkey Town 18]

Sturm, did you take this season into account at all?

All the modern guys on the list (Weber, Suter, Doughty, Karlsson and Keith specifically) are all most likely headed for top-10 Norris finishes. I'm guessing it'll be something like:

Karlsson will be top-3.
Weber, Suter will be top-6.
Doughty, Keith will be top-10.

Karlsson, Weber and Suter especially appear to be poised to add a significant notch to their resumes.

The one guy who probably has the highest potential of fluctuation is Karlsson. He isn't blowing out every other D in scoring and he is the weakest defensively of the group. He might finish closer to 10 than 1. Hard to say what voters will think of him. I suppose Keith could rise into the top-6 as well. Chicago is very quietly having another excellent season, it's really hard to notice them since excellence is just expected for them.

For what it's worth, I REALLY appreciate you doing these. I am absolutely terrible at remembering who belongs where on a top-D list, and this has worked excellently as a quick reminder. Much appreciated!

I think as of today Keith is for sure a top 6, he's got everything the voters "need"... high profile team doing well in the standings, 4th in Dman scoring, established reputation, high minutes, decent +/-

 

[Sturminator]

Interesting to see Tremblay in the tier he is (higher than some). I think he could potentially be underrated in the ATD, at least in the sense of where he is drafted and the players that get picked right ahead of him usually.

I tend to think that J.C. Superstar is a bit underrated, yes. It's easy to forget unless you saw him what an excellent playoff performer he was, and I think most GMs forget to (or simply do not) count his WHA seasons, which I do think add to his legacy. It was a weaker league than the NHL, but being the best defenseman in it certainly meant something (I feel the same way about Pat Stapleton, who I view as largely a poor man's Tremblay).

Tremblay needs a certain kind of team/partner because he was soft and temperamental. These are "in a vacuum" ratings, so Tremblay often getting drafted a bit below where he might rate in terms of overall skill/achievements is not surprising, as team fit already plays a meaningful role in selections by the time he gets on the radar. If you can put him in the right situation, I think he's typically a good value in the draft.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Just took a quick look at last year's list, this year's list has more tiers, but it's pretty consistent. You had Stevens and Chara flip-flopped last year, but I like this year's with Stevens over Chara better.

Keith vs. Savard and Lapointe is interesting to me, hard to compare because of team situation, but it's difficult to imagine those 2 Habs peaked higher than Keith, and Keith has been one of the league's best Dmen for almost 10 years (I'd say since 08-09).

Doughty had a huge jump, going from the 78-87 tier last year to the 52-56 tier this year

Nice to see a jump for my guy Lionel Conacher, which I thought was deserved after really looking into his AS finishes before drafting him this year.

 

[jarek]

I did not, except for kinda-sorta with Brent Burns because I think he's the Hart trophy front-runner, and I just couldn't rate him lower than I did (though it is cheating on my principle of not counting this season).

Yes, I agree with you; the modern guys are all having fine seasons, and some may rise once the campaign is over. We shall see. Didn't want to rate players on speculation, though I couldn't help myself with Burns.

Thanks for the praise. Rating forwards is relatively easy as we have various statistical shorthands to guide our evaluations, but I always find it so tough to rate defensemen, especially as the draft grows and shrinks. These exercises really help me to get my head around where I think the various defensemen are relative to the draft as a whole, and their roles on their given teams. It's nice to hear that they are helpful for others, as well.

Yeah if they get injured it will surely hurt their chances at top-10 Norris finishes this season. If all proceeds as it is currently, I think they're all comfortably in the top-10 though, except for maybe Karlsson.

The **** I gave you over not including Cook in your list last year notwithstanding, and I can appreciate the subjectivity involved with him, it's really an excellent list that I'd have no problems taking as a definitive top D list at this time.

I think as of today Keith is for sure a top 6, he's got everything the voters "need"... high profile team doing well in the standings, 4th in Dman scoring, established reputation, high minutes, decent +/-

I would not be shocked if he's a Norris finalist.

I think Suter might get slightly overrated because he's playing HUGE minutes for such an excellent team. Their dominance kinda came out of nowhere and no question he's a huge part of it, but him finishing higher than 4th or 5th would be overrating him most likely.

With Doughty, I actually don't think he's any worse than Suter, but he won't finish as high in Norris voting because LA is doing so poor compared to Minnesota. I don't expect him to finish higher than 8th, but I think he should finish in the top-6.

With Karlsson, in order to justify a top-10 finish for him, he really needs to blow out the other guys in scoring, and he's not doing it this season. I really wouldn't be surprised if he finishes 10th, or even lower. This really isn't me hating on Karlsson at all, I really like him, but within his own blue line there will be other defensemen who don't come close to sniffing the top-10 in Norris who are better than him.

You know, thinking about it further, there is no obvious guy to round out the top-3. I think this very well may be Suter's year, and he just might deserve it. Minnesota is doing so well and he's a huge part of that.

The Norris voting should go something like this:

Burns
Keith
Suter
Weber
Doughty
Subban
xxx

Don't ask me to rank the following but they all have cases for the top-10:

Karlsson, Pietrangelo, Byfuglien, Letang (he'll get some votes but I really don't think he deserves it, too few GP), Nashville D, Buffalo D, NYR D.

That's got to be all the guys who have cases for being in the top-10, I don't believe anyone else does.

I am fairly confident of the top-7, though the order might go a bit differently. The rest.. point a gun at my head and I'll just tell you to pull the trigger, I couldn't even begin to decipher who should go 8-10. Karlsson seems like an obvious 8 compared to the others, but that's about it. The only guys in that top-7 I wouldn't pull my hair out over if he was voted ahead of are Subban and xxx.

The one other guy who could slide really is Weber.. mainly because Montreal has been so poor in the second half. He had such an amazing start to the year but has really slowed down, and there have been MTL fans calling him out for shoddy defensive play. It's not really his fault, that MTL D is so horrible for a top team. Weber is pretty much on an island. There's only so much he can do.

Just took a quick look at last year's list, this year's list has more tiers, but it's pretty consistent. You had Stevens and Chara flip-flopped last year, but I like this year's with Stevens over Chara better.

Keith vs. Savard and Lapointe is interesting to me, hard to compare because of team situation, but it's difficult to imagine those 2 Habs peaked higher than Keith, and Keith has been one of the league's best Dmen for almost 10 years (I'd say since 08-09).

Doughty had a huge jump, going from the 78-87 tier last year to the 52-56 tier this year

Nice to see a jump for my guy Lionel Conacher, which I thought was deserved after really looking into his AS finishes before drafting him this year.

I think the Doughty jump is justified. That Norris win for him was HUGE, and really a long-time coming. I used to really wonder what made him so good but I've come around with him.

 

[Sturminator]

Keith vs. Savard and Lapointe is interesting to me, hard to compare because of team situation, but it's difficult to imagine those 2 Habs peaked higher than Keith, and Keith has been one of the league's best Dmen for almost 10 years (I'd say since 08-09).

That whole range of defensemen is one of the hardest for me to rate. The #2/3 of the old Habs' "big three" are difficult for me to peg historically because of team situation, but I do tend to give extra credit for the role they played as part of a dynasty (though Keith is obviously part of a dynasty, too, so there's that).

Doughty had a huge jump, going from the 78-87 tier last year to the 52-56 tier this year

Nice to see a jump for my guy Lionel Conacher, which I thought was deserved after really looking into his AS finishes before drafting him this year.

I had underrated Doughty in the past. Nothing more to it than that, I suppose. Conacher was one of the older guys I took a harder look at this year in putting together the list. I think I had always sort of knocked him unfairly in the past due to skating issues, and ignored a bit the fact that he accomplished all that he did in spite of them. I think I gave Hod Stuart a bump, as well. I'm still pretty conflicted on Hod, but I've come around a bit, and think I may have been too hard on him in the past.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Excellent ranking-by-tiers of defensemen by Sturminator.I could nitpick but I'd be kind of a jerk without providing my own tiers.

The only thing I'll say is that after all those years I'm still not sure whether Eddie Shore deserves to be in Bourque's and Harvey's tier.For my money, Shore is the #1 ATD player who needs a great biography the most.

 

[Sturminator]

Excellent ranking-by-tiers of defensemen by Sturminator.I could nitpick but I'd be kind of a jerk without providing my own tiers.

The only thing I'll say is that after all those years I'm still not sure whether Eddie Shore deserves to be in Bourque's and Harvey's tier.For my money, Shore is the #1 ATD player who needs a great biography the most.

Me neither, which is why I finally bumped him down to the Lidstrom tier. I just couldn't justify keeping him with Harvey/Bourque on reputation, alone.

I agree with you that Eddie is sorely in need of a bio, but researching his career is tough sledding, and the potential payoff is light, as he's already rated so highly. I attempted a big Eddie Shore bio some years back, and got worn out by the process. The fact that Eddie was a pre-war player who played in Boston makes it tough, but the fact that he had a name made up of two extremely common words is the real kicker, I think. In a much shorter time, I found a lot more on Frank Brimsek, for example, when I researched his career some years ago, probably in large part due to the rarity of the word "Brimsek" in English-language publications (his father was of Slovene descent).

 

[BenchBrawl]

Me neither, which is why I finally bumped him down to the Lidstrom tier. I just couldn't justify keeping him with Harvey/Bourque on reputation, alone.

I agree with you that Eddie is sorely in need of a bio, but researching his career is tough sledding, and the potential payoff is light, as he's already rated so highly. I attempted a big Eddie Shore bio some years back, and got worn out by the process. The fact that Eddie was a pre-war player who played in Boston makes it tough, but the fact that he had a name made up of two extremely common words is the real kicker, I think. In a much shorter time, I found a lot more on Frank Brimsek, for example, when I researched his career some years ago, probably in large part due to the rarity of the word "Brimsek" in English-language publications (his father was of Slovene descent).

All fair enough concerning Shore and the difficulty of making a bio for him.But since you talk of avoiding putting Shore with Harvey/Bourque on reputation alone...

My problem with Ray Bourque, and this is not to start a Bourque vs Harvey vs Shore war because I have Harvey this year (I don't have much to gain, I'm content with considering Bourque/Harvey equal if I meet him in the playoffs), is that I was alive all throughout his career, and I never "sensed" his reputation was that great.Yes, obviously he was always considered a top defenseman in the league, and he was very respected, but it was a kind of greatness that slowly creeps into you.One day Bourque retires in a glorious fashion, you look back and you realize that his Norris and AST records are out of this world.But was it ever "Oh wow we're witnessing greatness here, a Top-3 defenseman ever" while watching Bourque? Were we watching a Top 10 player in the history of the game? Maybe I was just too young, or had the wrong feeling.Older posters can enlighten me on the reputational front.

And granted, the fact that he peaked at the intersection of Gretzky's and Lemieux' prime didn't help.

So to go back to Shore, as his career was ongoing, intuitively it seems like his reputation was greater than Bourque.From that point of view, I find it hard to rank him in a tier below.Ideally I'd probably put Harvey on his own tier below Orr but above Bourque and Shore.But here I go, nitpicking when I said I wouldn't.

 

[Dreakmur]

So, seeing as the last one of these I did was four years ago, I thought I'd put together a revised version of my own personal top-125 or so defensemen in history. Some modern guys have risen in the intervening years, and my opinion has shifted on some older guys, though the list is not radically different than it was back in the day. Anyway, without further ado, here it is, with designations "#1D", etc. adjusted for a 25 team draft:



Same disclaimer as last time. This is mostly for me, as a way or ordering my thoughts and getting my head around where I think the various defensemen in hockey history fit in terms of a now smaller draft. I actually ended up doing more re-ordering of the players than I had expected to, especially lower in the list, but a lot of new information has come out since 2013, so I suppose that is to be expected. Worth noting is that this list is un-ordered within any given tier.

Please let me know if you catch any gross oversights (like last time when I forgot that Scott Stevens existed on the first draft).

Thanks for doing that. It's pretty close to what I would put together.

I thought you did one last year.... if it wasn't you, somebody put one out in the same format. I'm glad to see Weber move so far up on your list. When I had him last year, his low placement on your (or whoever posted) list from last year. I wondered what made him worse that guys like Jack Stewart, Rob Blake, and Marcel Pronovost. You've now got him in that group, so I wasn't far off from where you have him.

 

[895]

Well I like any ranking that gives me two #1s and one very good #2

Which tiers are the closest to each other and which have the most separation? I'd say Orr is probably further from Harvey than Lidstrom is from Bourque right?

 

[BenchBrawl]

What's wrong with the bio I did for Shore?

Nothing wrong with it at all

But I meant an obscenely long and throughout one.I know doing bios is time-consumming, and you are among those who did the most of them throughout the years.Wasn't meant as a criticism.

But as Sturm said, doing a long bio for Shore might be harder than I thought.

 

[Sturminator]

Thanks for doing that. It's pretty close to what I would put together.

I thought you did one last year.... if it wasn't you, somebody put one out in the same format. I'm glad to see Weber move so far up on your list. When I had him last year, his low placement on your (or whoever posted) list from last year. I wondered what made him worse that guys like Jack Stewart, Rob Blake, and Marcel Pronovost. You've now got him in that group, so I wasn't far off from where you have him.

I did do one last year, but completely forgot that I had done it.

Looking at last year's...well, I put more thought into this one, and tried harder to evaluate the players with a fresh set of eyes and break out of the somewhat crystallized rankings I'd had of them in the past. The modern players, including Weber, Doughty, R. Suter, et al. probably benefited from this reevaluation the most, though I also tried hard with some older guys like L. Conacher.

 

[Dreakmur]

I did do one last year, but completely forgot that I had done it.

Looking at last year's...well, I put more thought into this one, and tried harder to evaluate the players with a fresh set of eyes and break out of the somewhat crystallized rankings I'd had of them in the past. The modern players, including Weber, Doughty, R. Suter, et al. probably benefited from this reevaluation the most, though I also tried hard with some older guys like L. Conacher.

The one I struggle with the most is Ryan Suter. When I watch him play, I see him as one of the absolute elite defensemen in the game - he, Keith and Doughty are 1-2-3 for me. They are all so well-rounded.

The issue is I seem to be in the only one

 

[jarek]

The one I struggle with the most is Ryan Suter. When I watch him play, I see him as one of the absolute elite defensemen in the game - he, Keith and Doughty are 1-2-3 for me. They are all so well-rounded.

The issue is I seem to be in the only one

He has Bourque's problem in the eyes of BB. He doesn't do anything flashy. He's probably the most boring, bland, unexciting elite defenseman in the game right now.

That's something that we really ought to get past. You don't have to wow the audience to be brilliant.

BB, just to be clear, this isn't a criticism of you. I just remember you saying this about Ryan Suter in the past.

 

[BenchBrawl]

He has Bourque's problem in the eyes of BB. He doesn't do anything flashy. He's probably the most boring, bland, unexciting elite defenseman in the game right now.

That's something that we really ought to get past. You don't have to wow the audience to be brilliant.

BB, just to be clear, this isn't a criticism of you. I just remember you saying this about Ryan Suter in the past.

I don't like Ryan Suter (though I don't hate him), and I have a very different impression of him than Dreakmur's.Such is life.But this has nothing to do with Bourque, even if you scale it.Bourque was amazing and did amazing things, but ''Top 10 player of all-time'' amazing? I don't remember it like that, but I asked for the opinions of older posters because I might have been too young.

This is not to say Suter isn't a good #4 D in the ATD, especially considering his skillset.

 

[VanIslander]

Well I don't think you have to accept statistics wholesale.

I put great faith in traditional statistics and adjusted point scoring. I think stuff like Fenwick and GSAA and whatever the hell those HERO charts as mostly noise though.

THAT is a huge part of my "suck your stats" sentiment.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Kessel has always been a clutch player, it is not his fault the team sucked too much to give him an opportunity to express this clutchness.

I remember Kessel burning us when he was in Boston, so this isn't anything new with Pittsburgh.

Kessel = Kane-lite

 

[Leaf Lander]

You do realize we wouldn't have been bad enough to draft Matthews with Kessel on the roster, right?

Read my post do you u think I don't Put 2 n 2 together about the leafs.

It's all a matter of a lotto won and the very worse we get 2 other players in strong draft yrs.

We would still be bottom 5 nhl wise.

 

[Leaf Lander]

Kessel has always been a clutch player, it is not his fault the team sucked too much to give him an opportunity to express this clutchness.

I remember Kessel burning us when he was in Boston, so this isn't anything new with Pittsburgh.

Kessel = Kane-lite

To me he is the player Ovechkin took a mocking pic of when he was drafted last in the draft for the Nhl alll star

 

[Voight]

The one I struggle with the most is Ryan Suter. When I watch him play, I see him as one of the absolute elite defensemen in the game - he, Keith and Doughty are 1-2-3 for me. They are all so well-rounded.

The issue is I seem to be in the only one

No disrespect to Subban, but Suter was robbed of the Norris in '13.

Carey Price: After a mid season slump he looks to be picking it up. At his best it's him or Lundqvist as best goalie right now in real life. He wasn't on my radar as backup but he's a fine pick especially behind Frank Brimsek.

All due respect to Lundy, but he hasn't been in the top goalie convo the last 2-3 seasons. Its now Price-Holtby-Dubnyk.

 

[Sturminator]

The one I struggle with the most is Ryan Suter. When I watch him play, I see him as one of the absolute elite defensemen in the game - he, Keith and Doughty are 1-2-3 for me. They are all so well-rounded.

The issue is I seem to be in the only one

Just out of curiosity, dreak, where would you place Ryan Suter with respect to my list? I really like him as a player and am often reminded of Guy Lapointe when I see him play. He'll surely climb the rankings some more as he's still got plenty left in the tank, but I have a hard time ranking him higher today than I've got him.

 

[seventieslord]

I'll take Miikka Kiprusoff, G, to back up Patrick Roy.

Backup goalies have been drafted pretty appropriately so far, and no one stands out as an outstanding value, but among the guys left, Kipper's vezina/all-star record sealed it for me.

 

[VanIslander]

Loved the Kipper. There was a time in San Jose when we fans thought it might be better to trade our beloved starter (who let us down in some key games) and keep the Kipper! (Oh well, we ended up with Vlasic by trading him.)

My fondest memory was a playoff game at the Shark Tank when he stoned the Blues (a team we had a heated rivalry with for a couple of years) but we couldn't score. Friggin' Pronger or MacInnis were always on the ice and clearly were the stars of the night (along with Kipper).

 

[Dreakmur]

Just out of curiosity, dreak, where would you place Ryan Suter with respect to my list? I really like him as a player and am often reminded of Guy Lapointe when I see him play. He'll surely climb the rankings some more as he's still got plenty left in the tank, but I have a hard time ranking him higher today than I've got him.

Based on my own eyes, he's been better than Weber for pretty much the entirety of his career.... but based on league and award recognition, he's closer to guys like maybe Harry Howell or Sergei Zubov.

You probably have him in the right spot.

 

[jarek]

I'll take Rick MacLeish, C/LW.

His offensive record is outstanding for this part in the draft, with a VsX7 of 73.3 to go along with a very good playoff record.

He's also versatile enough that he can play either in a scoring or checking role.