ATD 2017 Draft Thread IV

[Hawkey Town 18]

At least they drafted him as an assistant. I don't know if I see Sutter and Boudreau working well together, but I get the idea, drafting a strong regular season/poor playoff assistant to help a successful playoff guy who's had trouble in the regular season.

If Boudreau was their head coach it would be miles worse

 

[Cyborg LeClair]

To Bruce Boudreau as an ATD coach.

As an ATD assistant coach. There are undrafted coaches with better playoff success but from what we've seen theyre very heavy defensively. We have Sutter in that capacity and wanted a coach who could bring the opposite. If you have a suggestion, please PM me

 

[jarek]

With pick 558 I take my first right wing spare, this guy could score some goals but also could play a good board game as well.

Out of the Soviet Union Russian Right Winger Konstantin Loktev.

Next has been pmed.

It came down to Loktev and Wilson for me. There were two major factors I considered:

1) Loktev's very small size (5'7, 165 lbs.) scared me off. Wilson is bigger than that, at 5'8, 180 lbs., and played nearly half a century earlier. Even in his own era, Wilson was sometimes referred to as small.

2) I didn't want to flood my team with 60's era Soviets.

That being said, Loktev is a fine pick here as a 4th liner.

 

[jarek]

At least they drafted him as an assistant. I don't know if I see Sutter and Boudreau working well together, but I get the idea, drafting a strong regular season/poor playoff assistant to help a successful playoff guy who's had trouble in the regular season.

If Boudreau was their head coach it would be miles worse

Man, this is going to be entirely how one views Sutter and Boudreau working together. This could be an unmitigated disaster (both guys have VERY different philosophies and both read as very stubborn), or it could serve as a huge help to the Collective. Sutter may defer to Boudreau in the regular season, with Sutter taking over in the post-season.

At this time I really have no idea how to evaluate this.

 

[VanIslander]

There are three coaches (4 if you include assistant or associate worthy ones) who have yet to be drafted.

I cannot believe 60 players could be drafted witthout some yet undrafted are mentioned.

 

[895]

I like it. Boudreau is an all time great regular season coach for sure.

I don't know why he fails in the playoffs but I'm still not 100% convinced it's a personal failing and not being supremely unlucky.

 

[seventieslord]

At least they drafted him as an assistant. I don't know if I see Sutter and Boudreau working well together, but I get the idea, drafting a strong regular season/poor playoff assistant to help a successful playoff guy who's had trouble in the regular season.

If Boudreau was their head coach it would be miles worse

I kinda like the combo for that reason.

On the other hand, not a fan of putting two alpha coaches together and expecting one to be a submissive assistant. (I draft assistants sometimes, but typically that guy has experience in the role).... but I guess it works internationally, doesn't it?

 

[jarek]

I kinda like the combo for that reason.

On the other hand, not a fan of putting two alpha coaches together and expecting one to be a submissive assistant. (I draft assistants sometimes, but typically that guy has experience in the role).... but I guess it works internationally, doesn't it?

I was gonna mention that - have they ever coached together?

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

I kinda like the combo for that reason.

On the other hand, not a fan of putting two alpha coaches together and expecting one to be a submissive assistant. (I draft assistants sometimes, but typically that guy has experience in the role).... but I guess it works internationally, doesn't it?

Coaching a brief tournament is much different than an entire season. Either way, have these guys been successful international coaches/assistants?

 

[seventieslord]

...Over the span of his first 7 years (1968 to 1974) "The Red Baron" was top-15 in NHL goals, shots and game winners...

suck your stATS!~

...and later the second ever 300-win NHL goaltender...

suck your stATS!~

...In 1978 he was the 6th scorer of the CSSR league (amoung all skaters). He ate tons of ice time, played both PP and PK...

suck your stATS!~

 

[Johnny Engine]

suck your stATS!~



suck your stATS!~



suck your stATS!~

I believe that acronym stands for "statistical Assumption Test Statement," so those examples might not apply.

 

[seventieslord]

He was 4th in NHL plus-minus the year after that, trailing only teammates Mario and Murphy along with Bourque, then scoring a career-high 6 playoff points in 12 postseason games on a Game 7 divisional finals run. Before Pittsburgh, Ulf had been the Whalers' second leading defenseman in scoring with 167 points over his last six seasons in Hartford as well as 1000+ PIMs.... Ulf scored two goals in Sweden's 1990 silver-medal world championships and he also played in the 1991 Canada Cup and 1998 Olympics. "Tuffe Uffe" retired after 1000+ NHL games, 300+ points, +172 plus-minus and 5th among all defensemen in career penalty minutes with 2453

suck your stATS!~

a 700+ goal scorer who scored more than everyone but Gretzky over a decade with a 1st line center of a dynasty team and a playoff top-3 in postseason scoring winger over a 5-year and 7-year span ain't offensive??????

suck your stATS!~

was top-3 three times in assists in the league among all players, and of course ahead of all defensemen, scoring 99 points over four years.

suck your stATS!~

...should I go on?

 

[seventieslord]

I hope it's not seen as an escalation. Just trying to emphasise the hypocrisy here. If someone is going to scream "stats be damned!!!!" and "suck your sTATS!~" every time a reference to a statistic comes up that they disagree with then they just need to get off the fence.

Decide now - Do statistics tell us anything about players or not? If they do, then carry on using them in your simplistic way and keep your old man rants to yourself when people post more advanced/nuanced numbers you don't understand. If you think stats don't tell us anything, that's fine, but then be consistent and stop posting stats when it suits you.


....like seriously. "waaaaaaaah, you said Jeff Carter was almost the same as Joe Nieuwendyk in one way, assuming he finishes this season strongly!!!! I'll slit my throat!!!"

 

[895]

Well I don't think you have to accept statistics wholesale.

I put great faith in traditional statistics and adjusted point scoring. I think stuff like Fenwick and GSAA and whatever the hell those HERO charts as mostly noise though.

 

[BenchBrawl]

A bit late to the party, but I was considering Kessel for a while as Geoffrion's replacement when injured.

He is definitely an ATDer by now (assuming at least 25 teams).Not sure what the problem is, except that he played for Toronto in one of their worst era.Even in this context, I think he delivered what was expected of him by anyone who is reasonable.

 

[Sturminator]

Sucks to your ass-mar, Piggy!

 

[jarek]

Looks like it's a Lord of the Flies reference.

Although I'm not exactly sure why it was made. I never got the impression that Kessel wanted to leave Toronto.. it was more he was forced out by a very unreasonable fan base. It wasn't his fault, he gave us exactly what was advertised. The problem was with the enormous price Brian Burke paid for him. He will forever be linked with Seguin and Hamilton, even though he wasn't traded for those two players, only those PICKS.. the placement of which wasn't guaranteed to be so high (and quite honestly, nobody was expecting them to be so high).

The funny thing is, if you include the Czech defense dude that Toronto traded to Boston later on as part of the "reparations package" for the lopsided Kessel deal, Boston has probably come out in the losing end of the entire thing, with Dallas, Calgary and Pittsburgh the clear winners.

I would say the winners, in order: Pittsburgh, Dallas, Calgary, Toronto, Boston.

 

[rmartin65]

The Miami Screaming Eagles select Stefan Persson, D

Persson will be the team's 7th defenseman, and helps provide some offense from the backend.

 

[Voight]

Indiana Ice will select D Steve Duchesne to fill in as our 7th D.

 

[Sturminator]

So, seeing as the last one of these I did was four years ago, I thought I'd put together a revised version of my own personal top-125 or so defensemen in history. Some modern guys have risen in the intervening years, and my opinion has shifted on some older guys, though the list is not radically different than it was back in the day. Anyway, without further ado, here it is, with designations "#1D", etc. adjusted for a 25 team draft:

Orr = 1

+ Harvey, Bourque = 3

+ Lidstrom, Potvin, Kelly, Shore = 7

+ Robinson, Fetisov = 9

+ Chelios, Park = 11

+ Pilote, Clancy, Coffey = 14

+ MacInnis, Pronger, Cleghorn, Seibert, Stevens, Horton = 20

+ Clapper, Gadsby, Salming, Leetch, Chara = 25

----------------------- #1 D ^^

+ Howe, Quackenbush, Vasiliev = 28

+ Lapointe, Savard, Gerard = 31

+ Langway, Stewart, Tremblay, Weber, Keith, Blake, Goodfellow = 38

+ Niedermayer, L. Conacher, Pronovost, Laperriere, C. Johnson = 43

+ G. Boucher, E. Johnson, Kasatonov, Stuart = 47

+ Murphy, Siebert, Brewer, Coulter = 51

----------------------- #2 D ^^

+ Cameron, Reardon, Pospisil, Suchy, Doughty = 56

+ T. Johnson, Mantha, Bouchard, Thomson = 60

+ Stanley, Wilson, L. Patrick, Howell, Flaman, White, Karlsson = 67

+ Zubov, Stapleton, Desjardins, Gardiner = 71

+ Ross, Lutchenko, Gonchar, R. Suter, Crawford, Ragulin = 77

----------------------- #3 D ^^

+ Pulford, Hitchman, McCrimmon, Hall, Wentworth, Goldham, G. Suter, D. Hatcher, Mohns = 86

+ Neilson, Mortson, Day, Baun, Grant, Horner, Schoenfeld, Vasko, Beck, Duncan = 96

+ Heller, Cook, Boyle, Pratt = 100

----------------------- #4 D ^^

+ F. Patrick, Ramsey, Svedberg, Lowe, Boivin, Simpson, Green, Burns, Reise Jr., Dutton = 110

+ Foote, Rowe, Davydov, Harper, Konstantinov, Housley = 116

+ Sologubov, Harris, Harmon, Kuzkin, Burrows, Numminen, Bergman = 123

+ Watson, K. Hatcher, Griffis, Carlyle, Hollett, Seiling= 129

----------------------- #5 D ^^

...and so on.

Same disclaimer as last time. This is mostly for me, as a way or ordering my thoughts and getting my head around where I think the various defensemen in hockey history fit in terms of a now smaller draft. I actually ended up doing more re-ordering of the players than I had expected to, especially lower in the list, but a lot of new information has come out since 2013, so I suppose that is to be expected. Worth noting is that this list is un-ordered within any given tier.

Please let me know if you catch any gross oversights (like last time when I forgot that Scott Stevens existed on the first draft).

 

[tony d]

Time to review recent picks:

Viktor Kuzkin: Looks like a good defenseman. Given Hajt is mainly a specialist at this level, Kuzkin could be called to come in and your team won't lose a step.

Glen Harmon: Very good pick, I looked at him when I went with Subban, should be a very good defenseman for you.

Marian gaborik: I looked at Gaborik but his injury history scared me off, as a goal scorer he should be able to replace Boom Boom if needed but the guy does have a bit of an injury history to contend with.

Taffy Abel: I had Taffy previously and I also drafted Taffy Abel in a past draft. Solid pick, one thing about your defense is the lack of defensive defenseman. Taffy will fill in for that.

Dan Bain: Nice pick, good to have that offense coming off the bench.

Bob Nystrom: While Bain gives you offense off the bench, Nystrom will give you defense and grit off the bench. A solid 2 picks Leaf Lander.

Neal Broten: I see you went with another centre for an extra, he's a fine pick but I don't see the need for going for a 6th centre on your team, I would have addressed other areas of your team 1st.

Carey Price: After a mid season slump he looks to be picking it up. At his best it's him or Lundqvist as best goalie right now in real life. He wasn't on my radar as backup but he's a fine pick especially behind Frank Brimsek.

Jack Adams: Your 3rd extra, looks to be a tough customer which should be fun coming off the bench. Late in the season you can insert him into the lineup for your team and his toughness could provide your team with some late season wins.

Ernie Russell: Russell looks like a good pick, given Lemeiux is on your team and may get injured throughout the season, an offensive extra is a must and you got a good 1 here.

Jeff Carter: Good pick for your team, guy is 1 of the better goal scorers in the league right now. A C/RW he can play a couple positions, decent defensive game as well.

Bruce Boudreau: This pick got some flak today. Yes there are coaches out there that should have got picked ahead of Boudreau but the fit with Sutter makes sense. I just wonder if Boudreau's brashness may be a bit much for Sutter. Is he a guy who may notice dissension in the locker room with Sutter and attempt to take over? Just a few ? for us to ponder as we approach voting time.

Konstantin Loktev: My pick, I had been looking at him for a while, knowing I would need an offensive extra to fill in for Neely. He looks to be more of an offensive guy but reading up on him today he played bigger than his size (Along the boards).

Steve Duschene: Given Reinhart's injury history drafting an offensive defenseman was a need for you, you got a pretty good 1 as well. Had I not gone with Subban I may have looked at picking Duschene with my pick today.

Stefan Persson: There is a lack of offensive defensemen on your team so drafting an offensive extra makes sense.

Anyway those are my thoughts on recent picks. I'm out of town for a couple days now so no review until Friday. I won't leave a list as I don't pick again until 593 and we are at 561 so if my pick comes up skip me and I'll make my picks up when I get back.

 

[Sturminator]

Sturm, you did one last year and I had to remind you of Blake that was missing. Looks like Karlsson is missing this year.



Appreciate the list though. The modern guys that are already ATDers have added to their resumé since you did it last year.

Ugh...yes. It seems my memory is going. I will add Karlsson. Thanks.

edit: I had legitimately forgotten that I did this last year, though I'm sort of glad that I did forget. Going off of my work in 2013 forced me to reevaluate the players more than I probably would have had I used the list from last year as my base.

 

[jarek]

Sturm, did you take this season into account at all?

All the modern guys on the list (Weber, Suter, Doughty, Karlsson and Keith specifically) are all most likely headed for top-10 Norris finishes. I'm guessing it'll be something like:

Karlsson will be top-3.
Weber, Suter will be top-6.
Doughty, Keith will be top-10.

Karlsson, Weber and Suter especially appear to be poised to add a significant notch to their resumes.

The one guy who probably has the highest potential of fluctuation is Karlsson. He isn't blowing out every other D in scoring and he is the weakest defensively of the group. He might finish closer to 10 than 1. Hard to say what voters will think of him. I suppose Keith could rise into the top-6 as well. Chicago is very quietly having another excellent season, it's really hard to notice them since excellence is just expected for them.

For what it's worth, I REALLY appreciate you doing these. I am absolutely terrible at remembering who belongs where on a top-D list, and this has worked excellently as a quick reminder. Much appreciated!

 

[Iceman]

Ugh...yes. It seems my memory is going. I will add Karlsson. Thanks.

Interesting to see Tremblay in the tier he is (higher than some). I think he could potentially be underrated in the ATD, at least in the sense of where he is drafted and the players that get picked right ahead of him usually.

 

[Sturminator]

Sturm, did you take this season into account at all?

I did not, except for kinda-sorta with Brent Burns because I think he's the Hart trophy front-runner, and I just couldn't rate him lower than I did (though it is cheating on my principle of not counting this season).

All the modern guys on the list (Weber, Suter, Doughty, Karlsson and Keith specifically) are all most likely headed for top-10 Norris finishes. I'm guessing it'll be something like:

Karlsson will be top-3.
Weber, Suter will be top-6.
Doughty, Keith will be top-10.

Karlsson, Weber and Suter especially appear to be poised to add a significant notch to their resumes.

The one guy who probably has the highest potential of fluctuation is Karlsson. He isn't blowing out every other D in scoring and he is the weakest defensively of the group. He might finish closer to 10 than 1. Hard to say what voters will think of him. I suppose Keith could rise into the top-6 as well. Chicago is very quietly having another excellent season, it's really hard to notice them since excellence is just expected for them.

For what it's worth, I REALLY appreciate you doing these. I am absolutely terrible at remembering who belongs where on a top-D list, and this has worked excellently as a quick reminder. Much appreciated!

Yes, I agree with you; the modern guys are all having fine seasons, and some may rise once the campaign is over. We shall see. Didn't want to rate players on speculation, though I couldn't help myself with Burns.

Thanks for the praise. Rating forwards is relatively easy as we have various statistical shorthands to guide our evaluations, but I always find it so tough to rate defensemen, especially as the draft grows and shrinks. These exercises really help me to get my head around where I think the various defensemen are relative to the draft as a whole, and their roles on their given teams. It's nice to hear that they are helpful for others, as well.